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Delta variant may account for 90% of cases unless action is taken to curb its spread – expert

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By Rathindra Kuruwita

The Delta variant of coronavirus would increase in the next few weeks and could account for 90% of all cases, Executive Director of the Institute for Health Policy (IHP), Dr Ravi Rannan-Eliya told The Island yesterday. He said that the actual Delta infection rate was probably four to six times higher than reported.

Soon the average transmission rate would be driven by Delta, which was 40%-60% more infectious than the alpha variant, and current measures taken by Sri Lanka were totally inadequate to control it, Dr. Rannan-Eliya said, adding that already, one in 10 samples, sequenced across the country, showed Delta varian infection.

“Whatever the current infection rate is today, it will almost certainly increase in the coming weeks. Most of our cases (90%) are probably still the Alpha variant,” Dr. Eliya said.

Commenting on the recent drop in COVID-19 cases in Sri Lanka, Dr. Eliya said that there were several reasons for that. He added that in almost all countries, most infections were never detected. Most people with COVID-19 were either asymptomatic or the infected person did not visit a doctor.

“At most, only 25-50% of infections are ever detected. In the case of India, the data suggest that fewer than 3% of infections were ever detected and reported. In the case of Sri Lanka, we probably did relatively well. If contact tracing was not efficiently done and most contacts were not tested, the number of reported cases could be lower, he said.

“Our test to case ratio (TCR) is now much worse than it was six months ago or even 4-5 months ago. All of this points to the actual infection rate being four to six times higher than reported cases”, he said, adding that the death rate bore evidence. The government was now reporting only deaths counted during the past 48 hours.

“I think the death rate may be closer to 100 a day. The death rate with COVID should be about 0.4–0.8%, and, therefore, if we are having 80 or more deaths a day, then the true infection rate could be around 10,000. Minister Fernandopulle said some time ago that actual infections could be several times the reported cases.”

Dr. Rannan-Eliya said that the countries that had controlled the Delta outbreaks at the community were China and Australia. They conducted aggressive testing. In the case of China, over 50 million tests were done in the province where the outbreak occurred, and as regards NSW in Australia, tests are being conducted at the rate of 50,000 a day. “With our current abysmal rate of testing and with the breakdown of the system of contact tracing and isolation, it is possible that Delta variant will spread faster.”



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Fuel crunch looms

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Govt. tells fuel distributors to maintain stocks to ensure uninterrupted supplies

by Saman Indrajith and Norman Palihawadane

The government had instructed private fuel distributors to maintain minimum stocks and ensure uninterrupted supplies to the market, Energy Minister Anura Karunathilaka told Parliament yesterday (06).

Karunathilaka said the Ministry of Energy Secretary had notified the relevant companies of the requirement, following a reduction in supplies by some private distributors, amid higher international fuel prices.

The Minister said private companies had informed the government that they were facing losses because international prices had risen while fuel was being sold, locally, at prevailing prices. As a result, some companies had reduced the volumes released to the market.

The reduced supplies had increased the burden on the Ceylon Petroleum Corporation (CPC), whose share of the diesel market had risen from about 54% to 82%, the Minister said.

“The CPC currently holds an 82% share of the market,” he said, adding that it had increased its supplies, compared with February, to compensate for the reduction by private distributors.

Karunathilaka said the government could not, under the existing agreements with private companies, specify the quantities they should supply to individual filling stations. However, it could require them to maintain minimum stocks in the country.

The Minister said the Energy Ministry had already instructed companies that had failed to maintain the required stocks to take steps to prevent supply disruptions.

The Minister attributed the queues reported at some filling stations to reduced supplies from private distributors, as well as normal variations in fuel distribution. He also said demand for CPC fuel had increased because private companies generally did not provide fuel to dealers on credit, while the CPC offered a three-day credit facility.

“We expect that, as the Ceylon Petroleum Corporation takes on this additional burden, the problem will ease to some extent by Wednesday or Thursday,” Karunathilaka said.

He said instructions had also been issued to increase supplies to CPC filling stations. A special discussion on the issue is scheduled for today (07), with officials of the Energy Ministry and CPC expected to participate,

along with President Anura Kumara Dissanayake.

Meanwhile, Petroleum Dealers’ Association officials have called for an early solution to the supply issue. Association Chairman D.V. Shantha Silva said queues had been reported at many filling stations, mainly those operated by private distributors.

He said the situation was not due to an overall shortage of fuel, but was linked to reduced orders by Lanka IOC, Sinopec and R.M. Parks amid concerns over losses incurred on fuel sales.

The Ceylon Petroleum Private Tanker Owners Association has urged motorists to refrain from panic buying, saying there was no nationwide disruption to fuel supplies.

The government earlier increased fuel prices and introduced a per-litre diesel subsidy following concerns raised by distributors over rising international prices.

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Gnansara Thera to be assigned to prison printing section: Officials

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Bodu Bala Sena General Secretary Ven. Galagodaaththe Gnanasara Thera, who was taken into custody to serve the remainder of his prison sentence, was produced before the Colombo High Court yesterday by prison officials in connection with a warrant issued by the court. He appeared before the court in layman’s clothes. Pic by Nishan S. Priyantha.

by Norman Palihawadane

Bodu Bala Sena General Secretary Ven. Galagodaatte Gnanasara Thera, who has been ordered by the court to serve the remainder of his prison sentence, is to be assigned to the prison ‘printing work party’, prison officials said yesterday.

The monk was produced before the Colombo High Court yesterday by prison officials in connection with a warrant issued by the court.

He appeared before the court in civilian attire.

Prison sources said arrangements were being finalised for his detention and that he would subsequently be assigned to the printing work party.

The Thera initially objected when prison officials instructed him to change from his robes into the attire worn by convicted prisoners.

He later agreed to wear the prescribed prison clothes, sources said.

The Supreme Court, in September, annulled the presidential pardon granted to Gnanasara Thera in 2019. He had been serving a six-year prison sentence imposed following his conviction for contempt of court but had served only about nine months when then President Maithripala Sirisena granted him a presidential pardon in May 2019.

Following the Supreme Court ruling, the Thera was required to serve the remainder of his sentence. He was subsequently reported missing, prompting the Court of Appeal to issue an open warrant for his arrest.

The Court of Appeal on Monday ordered the authorities to enforce the remainder of his prison sentence.

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Speaker rejects Ajith Perera’s privilege complaint

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Speaker Dr. Jagath Wickramaratne yesterday ruled that a privilege complaint submitted by SJB Kalutara District MP Ajith P. Perera did not constitute a prima facie breach of parliamentary privilege.

The ruling was made in response to a notice of privilege submitted by Perera on October 02.

Perera alleged that his parliamentary privileges had been breached over the failure to take formal action or reach a final decision on a written request submitted on August 03 by 18 Opposition MPs seeking the appointment of a Special Select Committee to investigate delays in the judicial system and prison overcrowding.

He had also requested that the matter be referred to the Committee on Ethics and Privileges for investigation and recommendations.

In his ruling, Speaker Wickramaratne said the Speaker, as the Presiding Authority and guardian of the powers, rights and privileges of Parliament, could not be subjected to a privilege complaint or disciplinary inquiry by a committee subordinate to the Chair in respect of actions taken in an official capacity.

He said that, under the Standing Orders, the Speaker was required to independently determine whether a prima facie case of breach of privilege existed.

Referring a complaint against the Speaker to a committee functioning under the Speaker’s authority would, therefore, create a procedural contradiction, he said.

Accordingly, the Speaker ruled that Perera’s notice did not constitute a prima facie breach of parliamentary privilege and disallowed the request to refer the matter to the Committee on Ethics and Privileges.

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