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Revenue decline puts pressure on govt’s fiscal management

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Moves underway to strengthen gross official reserves

Seeking support from IMF ruled out

by Sanath Nanayakkare

As government revenues have fallen below expected levels, fiscal management of the government is under pressure, Ajith Nivard Cabraal, State Minister of Finance, Capital Markets and State Enterprise Reforms said in Colombo yesterday.

He made this remark while speaking at a media briefing held at the Ministry of Finance.

“Although a sovereign bond of USD one billion needs to be settled this month, the actual outflow would be USD 700 million as Sri Lankan citizens own a share of USD 300 million of it. The current reserves are at USD 4 billion. After making this payment, the reserves will technically remain at USD 3 billion. Agreements have been arrived at with People’s Bank of China for a SWAP loan of USD 1.5 billion. In addition, the foreign exchange reserves will have contributions from Bangladesh Bank (SWAP) – USD 200 million, Reserve Bank of India (SWAP) USD 400 million. IMF (SDR allocation) USD 780 million and China Development Bank (Balance Loan) USD 200 million,” he said.

“In the next six months, the Central Bank will purchase USD 500 million from the forex market to consolidate the gross official reserves,” he said.

Further, a number of bilateral discussions are underway including for a USD 500 million syndicated loan while the Central Bank Governor has forecast a decline of imports by USD 700 million. he said.

The state minister said that the government has been able to collect only 34% of the government revenue in the first six months while 48% of the allocated recurrent expenditure has been spent during the period and 30% of the capital expenditure has already been invested in projects.

“Although the exchange rate is Rs. 200 to a USD, further depreciation is possible. The reasons for this are; reluctance of the exporters to convert their forex earnings and importers acting swiftly to import goods to top up their stocks for a longer time than it is necessary,” he said.

Further speaking he said,” The economy weakened from 2015 to 2019. Growth rate declined to 2.3% from 6.8%. Per capita income reported only a slight increase of USD 33 from USD 3,819 to USD 3,852. Gross Domestic Product was up by only USD 4 billion from USD 80 billion to USD 84 billion. Debt to GDP ratio increased to 87% from 72%. The debt stock increased to Rs.13 trillion from Rs. 7.5 trillion. The government’s interest expenditure in proportion to GDP increased to 6% from 4.2%. Due to rupee depreciation during the period, the debt stock rose by Rs. 1772 billion. Sovereign bond interest rate increased to 7.8% from 5.8%. Exports remained at an average of USD 11.1 billion while the trade deficit increased to USD 9.3 billion from USD 7.6 billion. Although sovereign bonds to the tune of USD 12 billion had been issued during the five years, foreign exchange reserved declined to USD 7.6 billion from USD 8.2 billion. The budget deficit increased to 9.6% from from 5.7%. Employed persons reduced to 8.2 million from 8.4 million. Central Bank’s treasury bill holdings shot up to Rs. 75 billion from zero. Rupee to USD exchange rate depreciated by 39% from Rs. 131 to Rs. 182. USD 3,089 million worth of Central Bank reserves were sold to maintain the value of the rupee. If this had not been done, foreign exchange reserves would have remained at USD 10.7 billion. The country’s credit rating downgraded to B (Negative) from BB- (Stable) – four notches during the period. Foreign debt versus domestic debt shifted to 48:52 from 42:58. From 2015 to 2019, government revenue was up by 65%, but as interest rates were high amid low growth, that advantage slipped through.”

“When Covid-19 hit Sri Lanka in 2020, in spite of the resilience some sectors of the economy had shown, the overall economy further weakened. As the economy had been completely shut for 66 days, it led to a negative growth of 3.6% while per capita income declined to USD 3,682 with the lowering of GDP to USD 81 billion. Debt to GDP increased to 101% from 87% while the debt stock increased to Rs.15.1 trillion from Rs. 13 trillion, therefore, interest expenditure was up by 6.5% to GDP in spite of low interest rate.”

Due to rupee depreciation, the debt stock increased by Rs. 356 billion. The repayment of USD 1 billion sovereign bond, the loss of income from Tourism around USD 3.5 billion, foreign exchange reserves fell to USD 5.7 billion from USD 7.6 billion. The impact of Covid-19 saw a spike in expenditure by about Rs. 100 billion while the government revenue declined, hence the budget deficit increased to 11.1%. The rupee depreciated 2.6% versus the USD to Rs. 187. However, the Central Bank bought USD 283 million from the forex market, and in 2021, the Bank has bought USD 130 million up to now. While the credit rating was downgraded to CCC(Stable) foreign debt to local debt ratio turned favourable by becoming 40:60 from 48:52. Low interest rate in 2020 brought some relief to the overall economy while the government also gained from it. Although exports were down to USD 10 billion, thanks to import controls, the trade balance was reduced to USD 6 billion.”

The state minister said that although there is a challenge to managing the economy, the government would not run away from its responsibility and would restore it a point where there is space for Sri Lanka to make a favourable turnaround with expected non-debt creating inflows to the Port City, Hambantota Industrial Zone, Pharmaceutical Manufacturing Zone, and last but not least with Sri Lanka Tourism reopening its boarders for the lucrative industry as the vaccine rollout is progressing well.

He empasised the fact that the government would not look to the IMF to get any help from it as those who recommend it want the government to get into difficulty as we would have to fall in line with IMF’s stringent economic recipe and conditions which come in hand in hand with their support.

 

 



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Fuel market faces fresh pressure as Asian prices rise

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Sri Lanka – vulnerable to ‘oil price shocks’

By Ifham Nizam

Sri Lanka’s fuel market is coming under renewed pressure as the escalating West Asian conflict and disruption to key oil-shipping routes push up international crude and refined-fuel prices, with a top Ceylon Petroleum Corporation (CPC) official saying the Corporation is closely monitoring developments and the potential impact on domestic fuel costs.

A top CPC official said the sharp rise in international oil prices was being driven by the conflict and disruptions to energy infrastructure and shipping routes in the region.

The official said Sri Lanka’s exposure to the international price shock would also depend on the timing of fuel purchases, as petroleum cargoes are ordered well before they arrive in the country and the final landed cost is determined when the cargo is delivered.

The CPC is also seeking to cushion consumers from the full impact of international price increases while maintaining uninterrupted supplies, the official said.

The latest developments come as Brent crude remains above USD 100 a barrel despite a recent retreat in prices following efforts by Saudi Arabia to maintain exports through alternative routes.

Brent crude futures fell to USD 104.74 a barrel yesterday, while West Texas Intermediate was trading at USD 101.60, according to Reuters. Saudi Arabia has been offering additional crude cargoes to Asian refiners through Oman to offset disruptions caused by attacks on its East-West pipeline.

The immediate concern for Sri Lanka is the potential impact on the country’s petroleum import bill, foreign-exchange requirements and inflation.

Higher international crude and refined-product prices mean that more dollars are required to finance fuel imports, while higher domestic energy costs can feed into transportation, manufacturing, agriculture, fisheries and logistics.

The pressure is already being felt elsewhere in Asia.

Pakistan has raised petrol prices by Pakistani Rs. 4.42 a litre and high-speed diesel by Rs. 6.10, taking the prices to Rs. 380.24 and Rs. 409.42 respectively. The latest increase is reported to be the sixth consecutive fuel price increase in the country.

The Philippines has also raised fuel prices, with petrol increasing by 5.68 Philippine pesos a litre, diesel by 4.31 pesos and kerosene by 4.62 pesos for the latest pricing period.

The developments provide an indication of how quickly international energy-market disruptions can feed into domestic fuel markets across fuel-importing Asian economies.

For Sri Lanka, the issue is particularly significant because petroleum remains a major component of the country’s import bill. The CPC’s current prices stand at Rs. 399 a litre for 92-octane petrol and Rs. 382 for auto diesel, according to the Corporation’s latest published prices.

The government is meanwhile facing pressure to balance consumer protection with the financial sustainability of fuel suppliers.

The Energy Minister has said several options are being considered, including fuel subsidies, price limits for private distributors and adjustments to retail prices. Private operators have reported substantial losses on diesel under prevailing prices, while the CPC has said it is currently absorbing losses on diesel through earnings from other petroleum operations.

A prolonged international oil-price shock could therefore have consequences extending well beyond the pump.

Higher fuel costs would raise operating expenses for transport-dependent businesses and could increase the cost of moving goods throughout the economy. For manufacturers and exporters, higher energy and logistics costs could also affect margins and competitiveness.

At the macroeconomic level, a sustained increase in petroleum prices could increase Sri Lanka’s foreign-exchange requirements and place additional pressure on the trade balance and inflation.

The international oil market, however, remains highly fluid. Saudi Arabia’s efforts to redirect crude exports through Oman have eased some immediate supply concerns, while expectations that its damaged East-West pipeline could return to operation within days have also helped push crude prices lower.

But shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains severely disrupted and the wider conflict continues to pose risks to crude and refined-product supplies.

For Sri Lanka, the coming weeks will therefore be closely watched by fuel suppliers, importers and businesses as the country assesses whether the current international price shock proves temporary or develops into a more prolonged increase in the cost of energy.

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NSB felicitates the performance and commitment of Grade 5 students

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The student, who obtained the highest marks in the Sinhala medium, at the Grade 5 Scholarship Examination – 2026, was felicitated by the National Savings Bank (NSB), recently, at the NSB Head Office, under the Hapan Pranama Scholarship Program -2026, organized by the Bank.

The Chairman of the Bank, Dr. Harsha Cabral PC, the Actg. General Manager/CEO, Rohana Bandara Weerakoon and the Corporate Management were present at the occasion.

Danoj Theekshana Weerasekara, a student of Ahatuwewa Model Primary School in Kurunegala District, has won the first place in Sinhala Medium at Grade 5 Scholarship Examination this year, with 193 marks. His remarkable achievement reflects not only his personal talents, but also the commitment of his family members, guidance of his teachers and support of the entire school community, who came together to make his triumph a reality.

The National Savings Bank, while complimenting his achievement, wishes him good luck, strength and courage for his future academic endeavors.

Being always committed towards realizing the educational goals of the children of the country, NSB organizes a seminar series, well in advance of the Examination, every year, to support them in preparation for the exam. The Bank has been able to hold more than 100 seminars islandwide this year as well.

Through these seminars, it is expected to provide the students with knowledge, guidance and mental strength, required to be successful at the Examination and the Bank has joined hands with them at an important juncture of their lives, assuring support and strength to face the exam with confidence. (NSB)

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CSE receives ‘Great Place to Work’ for five consecutive years

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Members of CSE, CDS & CSE Clear gathered to commemorate the accolade

The Colombo Stock Exchange (CSE) has received the ‘Great Place to Work’ Certification’ for the 5th consecutive year in a row. Since 2022 the bourse has been continually awarded the certification in recognition of its commitment to providing a welcome, inclusive and safe environment.

“At CSE, our people remain our greatest strength.” remarked Rajeeva Bandaranaike, CEO of the CSE “Receiving the Great Place to Work Certification for the fifth consecutive year is a meaningful recognition of our commitment to creating a workplace culture founded on trust, respect, and collaboration. It is an achievement shared by every member of the CSE team and reflects the passion, commitment, and teamwork that continue to drive our success.”

The certification was awarded by Great Place to Work®, a global organization that grants this recognition across more than 180 countries and regions and represents over 20 million employees and 22,000 companies worldwide. The certification was based on the results of an anonymous, company-wide survey that evaluated workplace culture across five key dimensions: credibility, respect, fairness, pride, and camaraderie.

The certification reaffirms CSE’s commitment to its foundational values of Professionalism, Integrity, Care, Teamwork, Passion and Agility. By championing equity and inclusion, the CSE has built a welcoming, discrimination-free culture where every individual can thrive. A cornerstone of this success is CSE’s leadership in workplace diversity as an equal opportunity employer and signatory to the UN Women’s Empowerment Principles, alongside its close collaboration with the UN Global Compact and Respectful Workplaces initiatives. Additionally, the exchange fosters dynamic young talent, with early-career professionals accounting for 57% of its workforce.

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