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Medical Faculty don forewarns imminent tipping point

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SL COVID-19 epidemiological trend bleak

By Sajitha Prematunge

From 200 to 300 positive cases, in mid-April, to over 3,000, in mid-May, the number of COVID-19 positive cases seems to be increasing exponentially, with the number of fatalities having surpassed the 1,000 mark on Tuesday (18). But epidemiology and public health experts warn that the numbers are just the tip of the iceberg.

Colombo University Medical Faculty, Community Medicine Department Head, Prof Manuj Weerasinghe says that the actual ground situation is far bleaker than the numbers would have one believe. An expert in epidemiology and public health, Weerasinghe points out that three simple facts ought to snap policymakers, and the general public, out of their complacency – a result of the false sense of security afforded by the number of positive cases and the relatively few deaths, compared to other worse affected countries. “One, the actual ground situation could be much worse. Two, detections are made through testing and hospital admissions, and there are many more that go unrecorded, and three, lapses in the vaccination process.”

Prof. Weerasinghe further explains that the fewer numbers could result in ill-informed decisions on the part of policymakers. “Everyone is hung up on the number of positive cases, specifically because there was a sharp rise from 150 to 300 to over 2,500 just after April 14. But, in fact, the ground situation could be much worse.” Based on the preliminary predictive modelling done by WHO HQ in the last week of April, and if the current trend continues with no interventions, Sri Lanka would most likely be reporting 10,000 cases daily within the next three weeks. But, according to Weerasinghe, this exponential growth in infections will go unnoticed as this goes beyond our testing capacity. 

According to Weerasinghe the current numbers depend heavily on the number of PCR tests conducted. He explains that Sri Lanka’s capacity for PCR testing is between 15,000 and 23,000. “30,000 per day is a stretch that would strain our laboratory resources.” The number of positive cases is only a sample of the population and if testing was to be increased so would the positive numbers. “They are drawn from those in quarantine or are hospitalized. Consequently, it’s just a sample of the population.” Weerasinghe pointed out that the numbers will plateau between 2,700 and 3,000s. “But this is only due to the restricted capacity of testing. He argues that even while coordinating the outsourcing of 25 to 30 percent of PCR testing to the private sector, by the government, Sri Lanka is still not conducting enough tests that would amount to a healthy representation of the total population.

“It’s no reason to be complacent. The positive cases number always reflects the number of tests done.” In fact, Weerasinghe postulates that the daily actual infected number could be two or three-fold the numbers recorded. “They either don’t know that they are infected yet or are asymptomatic.” The catch, according to Weerasinghe, is that resources required such as hospital capacity, ICU beds and oxygen reserves are calculated based on these numbers that are quite misleading.

According to Prof. Weerasinghe, of the 25 to 30 percent that are symptomatic, 17 to 20 percent may require oxygen. He further explained that those who do not experience any discomfort are unlikely to seek medical assistance. For example, certain people may suffer from hypoxia, deficiency in the amount of oxygen reaching the tissues, without experiencing any physical discomfort. “But their condition may progress quickly within three to four days,” says Weerasinghe. The snag is that there is a higher number of those experiencing delayed onset of symptoms, are only mildly symptomatic or are altogether asymptomatic, than the numbers would have one believe. “These people go to their GP [General Practitioner] for breathing difficulties and often go untested. It’s imperative that we make a policy decision to manage such patients as potential COVID-19 infected individuals,” emphasises Weerasinghe. He explains that this is vital for taking public health measures. “The problem is that policymakers cannot appreciate this fact.” Weerasinghe maintained that COVID management has to be proactive rather than reactive. “Our current approach is in reaction to reported cases.”

The increase of deaths also signals a vicious cycle, according to Weerasinghe. Those who experience delayed onset of symptoms are hospitalised late or go undiagnosed until their condition progresses so  much so that they require advanced care. “Invariably a certain percentage of these patients will die. We have to acknowledge this reality and forecast at least three weeks in advance instead of working based on past data,” reiterated Weerasinghe. He explains that it would take up to two weeks to observe results of any kind of intervention, such as deployment of health staff, establishment of hospitals or improvements to the supply chain. “We shouldn’t get too caught up in stats like ICU bed numbers, and instead focus on the ground situation, the number that goes untested,” emphasizes Weerasinghe.

Prof. Weerasinghe impressed the importance of enforcing immediate measures to stop transmission. In fact, according to him, the call for restriction of mobility is three weeks late. The call  for such restrictions by April 20, by medical experts fell on deaf ears. “Since this is a proactive game, we must have at least two weeks of stringent mobility restrictions, during which only key economic activities should be allowed to continue. With the haphazard restrictions currently in force, what we have now is a protracted pandemic, which ironically reflects unfavourably on the economy. It’s actually worse than a short period of strict restrictions.”

He also impressed on the significance of not lifting all restrictions at once. “Then all we’ve done so far will be in vain. Only a few restrictions must be lifted at a time. Gradual reopening of schools, but with pubs remaining closed and the ban on public gatherings still in force, for example.”

Weerasinghe’s third point of import, vaccination, is compounded by the shortage of the Covishield vaccine. He informed that, although the National Vaccination Deployment Strategy, even before such vaccines received approval, strongly recommended that the second dose should be reserved for those who received the first dose of any such vaccine, and priority groups such as comorbid and those over 60 years were specified, these recommendations were blatantly disregarded by policymakers. Weerasinghe assumes that, during diplomatic discussions, the future availability of the vaccine was perhaps assured, prompting the government to use up all the existing doses. As a result the second dose of the Covishield vaccine is almost three months late. “We made a mistake in the decision-making process, let’s not repeat it, because under such circumstances the demand for any vaccine far outweighs the supply.”

While emphasising the importance of the vaccination drive, Weerasinghe points out that the vaccine currently being rolled out, Sinopharm, will have little or no impact on the current epidemiological trend. “Vaccination is a medium to long term strategy. Which means that it does not show immediate results. It’s just one preventive strategy.” He reiterates that, in the meantime, vaccination centres must be prevented from turning into COVID-19 superspreaders and in this endeavour, public health measures and Personal Protective Equipment must go hand in hand. When resources are shared among groups some are bound to suffer, says Weerasinghe. And non-COVID patients often have to bear the brunt of the tug-o-war. “For example, dental health staff are at high risk of infection. Therefore some procedures may have to be put on hold. This is not the ideal situation, but it may be inevitable. “

We are now at Alert Level 3, which requires closure of education institutions, reduction in numbers of workers, ban of public gatherings and the curtailing of many other services and facilities that we have taken for granted. “So there is restriction of mobility to some extent even now. All these measures have a deep impact on transmission dynamics and the rate of increase in infections will reduce. However, Alert Level 4 means widespread pandemic beyond control,” warns Prof. Weerasinghe. Let’s hope it doesn’t get there.



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Mannar’s silent skies: Migratory Flamingos fall victim to power lines amid Wind Farm dispute

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Victims: Flamingos / Birds found dead in Mannar

By Ifham Nizam

A fresh wave of concern has gripped conservationists following the reported deaths of migratory flamingos within the Vankalai Sanctuary—a globally recognised bird habitat—raising urgent questions about the ecological cost of large-scale renewable energy projects in the region.

The incident comes at a time when a fundamental rights petition, challenging the proposed wind power project, linked to India’s Adani Group, remains under examination before the Supreme Court, with environmental groups warning that the very risks they highlighted are now materialising.

At least two flamingos—believed to be part of the iconic migratory flocks that travel thousands of kilometres to reach Sri Lanka—were found dead after entanglement with high-tension transmission lines running across the sanctuary. Another bird was reportedly struggling for survival.

Professor Sampath Seneviratne, a leading ornithologist, expressed deep concern over the development, noting that such incidents are not isolated but indicative of a broader and predictable threat.

“These migratory birds depend on specific flyways that have remained unchanged for centuries. When high-risk infrastructure, like poorly planned power lines, intersect these routes, collisions become inevitable,” he said. “What we are witnessing now could be just the beginning if proper mitigation measures are not urgently implemented.”

Environmentalists argue that the Mannar region—particularly the Vankalai wetland complex—is one of the most critical stopover sites in South Asia for migratory waterbirds, including flamingos, pelicans, and various species of waders. The sanctuary’s ecological value has also supported a niche with growing eco-tourism sector, drawing birdwatchers from around the world.

Executive Director of the Centre for Environmental Justice, Dilena Pathragoda, said the incident underscores the urgency of judicial intervention and stricter environmental oversight.

“This tragedy is a direct consequence of ignoring scientifically established environmental safeguards. We have already raised these concerns before court, particularly regarding the location of transmission infrastructure within sensitive bird habitats,” Pathragoda said.

“Renewable energy cannot be pursued in isolation from ecological responsibility. If due process and proper environmental impact assessments are bypassed or diluted, then such losses are inevitable.”

Conservation groups have long cautioned that the installation of wind turbines and associated grid infrastructure—especially overhead transmission lines—within or near sensitive habitats could transform these landscapes into lethal zones for avifauna.

An environmental activist involved in the ongoing legal challenge said the latest deaths validate earlier warnings.

“This is exactly what we feared. Development is necessary, but not at the cost of biodiversity. When projects of this scale proceed without adequate ecological assessments and safeguards, the consequences are irreversible,” the activist stressed.

The debate has once again brought into focus the delicate balance between renewable energy expansion and biodiversity conservation. While wind energy is widely promoted as a clean alternative to fossil fuels, experts caution that “green” does not automatically mean “harmless.”

Professor Seneviratne emphasised that solutions do exist, including rerouting transmission lines, installing bird diverters, and conducting comprehensive migratory pathway studies prior to project approval.

“Globally, there are well-established mitigation strategies. The issue here is not the absence of knowledge, but the failure to apply it effectively,” he noted.

The timing of the incident is particularly worrying. Migratory flamingos typically remain in Sri Lanka until late April or May before embarking on their return journeys. Conservationists warn that if hazards remain unaddressed, larger flocks could face similar risks in the coming weeks.

Beyond ecological implications, experts also highlight potential economic fallout. Wildlife tourism—especially birdwatching—contributes significantly to local livelihoods in Mannar.

 Repeated reports of bird deaths could deter eco-conscious travellers and damage the region’s reputation as a safe haven for migratory species.

Environmentalists are now calling for immediate intervention by authorities, including a temporary halt to high-risk operations in sensitive zones, pending a thorough environmental review.

They stress that protecting animal movement corridors—whether elephant migration routes or avian flyways—is a fundamental pillar of modern conservation.

As the controversy unfolds, one question looms large: can Sri Lanka pursue sustainable energy without sacrificing the very natural heritage that defines it?

Pathragoda added that for now, the sight of fallen flamingos in Mannar stands as a stark reminder that development, if not carefully planned, can carry a heavy and irreversible cost.

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‘Weaponizing’ religion in the pursuit of power

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President Donald Trump; miscalculating in M-E / Ayatollah Khomeini; Architect of Iranian Revolution

A picture of US President Donald Trump apparently being prayed for by supporters, appearing in sections of the international media, said it all loud and clear. That is, religion is being flagrantly leveraged or prostituted by politicians single-mindedly bent on furthering their power aspirations.

Although in the case of the US President the trend took on may be an exceptionally graphic or dramatic form, the ‘weaponizing’ of religion is nothing particularly new, nor is it confined to only religiously conservative sections of the West. For example, in South Asia it is an integral part of politics. The ‘South Asian Eight’ are notorious for it and it could be unreservedly stated that in Sri Lanka, the latter’s ethnic conflict would be more amenable to resolution if religion was not made a potent weapon by ambitious politicians of particularly the country’s South.

The more enlightened sections of Christian believers in the US may not have been able to contain their consternation at the sight of the US President apparently being ‘blessed’ by pastors claiming adherence to Christianity. Any human is entitled to be blessed but not if he is leading his country to war without exhausting all the options at his disposal to end the relevant conflict by peaceful means.

More compounded would be his problem if his directives lead to the death of civilians in the hundreds. In the latter case he is stringently accountable for the spilling of civilian blood, that is, the committing of war crimes.

However, the US along with Israel did just that in the recent bombings of Iran, for instance. The majority of the lives lost were those of civilians. If the US President is endowed with a Christian conscience he would have paused to consider that he is guilty of ordering the taking of the life of another human which is forbidden in the teachings of Jesus Christ.

Moreover, the ‘pastors’ praying over the US President should have thought on the above lines as well. May be they were in an effort to curry the President’s favour which is as blame-worthy as legitimizing in some form the taking of civilian lives. Apparently, the realisation is not dawning on all Christian conservatives of the US that some of these ‘pastors’ could very well be the proverbial false prophets and the latter are almost everywhere, even in far distant Sri Lanka.

However, the political reality ‘on the ground’ is that the Christian Right is a stable support base of the Republican Right in the US. Considering this it should not come as a surprise to the seasoned political watcher if the Christian Right, read Christian fundamentalists, are hand-in-glove, so to speak, with President Trump. But it is a scathing indictment on these rightist sections that they are all for perpetrating war and destruction and not for the fostering of peace and reconciliation. Ideally, they should have impressed on their President the dire need to make peace.

That said, political commentators should consider it incumbent on themselves to point out that religion is being ‘weaponized’ in Iran as well. Theocratic rule in Iran has been essentially all about perpetuating the power of the clerical class. The reasons that led to the Islamic Revolution in Iran are complex and the indiscreet Westernization of Iran under the Shah dynasty is one of these but one would have expected Iran to develop from then on into a multi-party, pluralistic democratic state where people would be enjoying their fundamental rights, as enshrined in the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, for example.

Moreover, Iran should have taken it upon itself to be a champion of world peace, in keeping with its Islamic credentials. But some past regimes in Iran had vowed to virtually bomb Israel out of existence and such regional policy trajectories could only bring perpetual conflict and war. Considering the current state of the Middle East it could be said that the unfettered playing out of these animosities is leading the region and the world to ‘reap the whirlwind’, having recklessly ‘sowed the wind’.

However, religious fundamentalism-inspired conflict and war has spread well beyond the Middle East into almost every region since 1979, the year of the Islamic Revolution in Iran. So much so, knowledgeable opinion now points out that religious identity has come to replace nationalism as a principal shaper of international politics or “geopolitics”, as quite a few sections misleadingly and incorrectly term it.

Elaborating on the decisive influence of religious identity, the well known and far traveled Western journalist Patrick Cockburn says in his authoritative and comprehensive book titled, ‘The Age of Jihad – Islamic State and the Great War for the Middle East’ at page 428 in connection with the war in Chechnya ; ‘If nationalism was not entirely dead, it no longer provided the ideological glue necessary to hold together and motivate people who were fighting a war. Unlike the Islamic faith, it was no longer a belief or a badge of identity for which people would fight very hard.’ (The book in reference was published by VERSO, London and New York).

In his wide coverage of Jihadist Wars the world over Cockburn goes on to state that today a call from a cleric could motivate his followers to lay down no less than their lives for a cause championed by the former. The 9/11 catastrophe alone should convince the observer that this is indeed true.

However, as often pointed out in this column, there is no alternative but to foster peace and reconciliation if a world free of bloodshed and strife is what is being sought. Fortunately we are not short of illustrious persons from the East and West who have shone a light on how best to get to a degree of peace. Besides Mahatma Gandhi of India, who was the subject of this column last week, we have former President of Iran Mohammad Khatami, who made a case for a ‘Dialogue of Civilizations’ rather than a ‘Clash of Civilizations’.

The time is more than ripe to take a leaf from these illustrious personalities, for, the current state of war in the Middle East has raised the possibility of a war that could transcend regional boundaries. The antagonists are obliged to exhaust all the peaceful options with the assistance of the UN system. Besides, war cannot ever have the blessings of the sane.

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Venerable Rahula Thera’s 35-year green mission and national Namal Uyana

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Venerable Rahula Thera

It was 35 years ago, on March 28, 1991, that Venerable Rahula Thera, then a young monk, embarked on a journey to the Na forest in Ulpathagama, Palagama, in the Anuradhapura District. Today, three and a half decades later, this mission stands as living proof of the enduring bond between Buddhist philosophy and the natural world.

Marking the 35th year of this green mission, Rahula Thera’s relentless dedication has transformed the National Namal Uyana into an environmental landmark admired not only across Sri Lanka but around the globe, as well.

When studying the life of Venerable Rahula Thera, one cannot ignore the profound connection between Buddhism and the environment. Buddhism is a philosophy deeply attuned to nature. The historical use of the sacred “Na Ruka” by all four Buddhas: Mangala Buddha, Sumana Buddha, Revata Buddha, and Sobhita Buddha — for enlightenment —demonstrates that from time immemorial, Buddhism has maintained a sacred bond with the Na tree. From the birth of Siddhartha to his enlightenment, the propagation of the Dharma, and even the great Parinirvana, all of these milestones unfolded in verdant, living landscapes.

Venerable Rahula Thera did not embark on the Namal Uyana mission seeking government support or personal gain. His commitment sprang from a deep devotion to the Buddha’s teachings on grove cultivation. A grove cultivator is one who spreads compassion for nature. As the Vanaropa Sutta teaches:

Venerable Rahula Thera reclaimed Namal Uyana which was then under the control of timber smugglers and treasure hunters. The term “Wanawasi” does not merely mean living in a forest; it signifies finding rest and enlightenment through nature, free from the destructive roots of greed, sin, and delusion.

Another defining aspect of Venerable Rahula Thera’s 35-year mission is the purification of the human mind. He has consistently taught the thousands who visit Namal Uyana that a person who loves a tree will never harm another human being. As the Dhamma proclaims:

It is important to remember that Venerable Rahula Thera devoted his life, without fear, speaking the truth and taking necessary action, tirelessly advancing the national mission he began. From 1991 to the present, he has worked with every government elected by the people, maintaining impartiality and independence from political ideology. Yet, he never hesitated to raise his voice fearlessly against any individual, of any rank or party, who committed wrongdoing.

Religious and Social Mission

The National Namal Uyana is not merely a forest; it is a magnificent heritage site, dating back to ancient times. Scattered across the landscape are boundary walls, the remains of ancient monastery complexes, and stone carvings believed to date back to the reign of King Devanampiyatissa. In earlier centuries, this sacred land had served as a meditation sanctuary for hundreds of monks. The name “National Namal Uyana,” by which this ecological and archaeological treasure is known today, was introduced by Venerable Rahula Thera in 1991. The government’s later recognition of the site as the National Namal Uyana stands as a significant achievement for both religion and national heritage.

Venerable Rahula Thera is a monk who has lived a life of renunciation. A striking example of this is his decision not to assume the position of Chief Incumbent of the National Namal Uyana Viharaya, instead entrusting the temple to the Ramanna Nikaya and its trustees. In doing so, he set a precedent for the contemporary Sangha. The Thera himself stated that he was merely the trustee of Namal Uyana, not its owner.

Legacy and Continuing Inspiration

The 35th anniversary of Venerable Wanawasi Rahula Thera’s arrival at Namal Uyana is not merely the commemoration of a period of time; it is a message of nature to future generations. Through his work, the Thera revived the ancient Hela tradition of loving trees and venerating the environment as something sacred. This religious and environmental mission remains unforgettable.

The revival experienced by Namal Uyana, after the arrival of Venerable Wanawasi Rahula Thera, is beyond simple description. Some of the major accomplishments achieved under his leadership include:

* Securing and protecting the largest Rose Quartz (Rosa Thirivana) reserve in South Asia.

* Restoring the Na forest spread across hundreds of acres, providing shelter to numerous rare plants and animal species.

* Transforming the area into a living centre for environmental education, offering practical learning experiences for thousands of schoolchildren and university students.

* Drawing the attention of world leaders and international environmentalists to Sri Lanka’s unique environmental heritage.

In recognition of his immense contribution to environmental conservation, Venerable Rahula Thera was honoured with the Presidential Environment Award and the Green Award in 2004—a significant moment in his life. Yet the Thera himself has always remained devoted to the work rather than the recognition it brings, making such appreciation even more meaningful.

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