Business
Dr. Ganeshan Wignaraja cautions at RCSS that Sri Lanka needs to plan for an 18th IMF Programme
Dr. Ganeshan Wignaraja has cautioned that Sri Lanka should consider an 18th IMF programme. He said, with the current programme ending in mid-2027 and significant debt repayments due from 2028, the compounding effects of Cyclone ‘Ditwah’ and the Middle-East War’ have made what was once a contingency, increasingly inevitable, and that planning for it is the responsible course of action.
Dr. Wignaraja, Visiting Senior Research Fellow at ODI Global, London (formerly Overseas Development Institute), London and Professorial Fellow at Gateway House, Mumbai, made these observations when he addressed the RCSS Strategic Dialogue – 4 on the theme “A Global Economy in the Shadow of Middle-East War: Implications for Sri Lanka’s Debt Recovery” on 4 May 2026 at the Regional Centre for Strategic Studies (RCSS) in Colombo. The dialogue brought together senior serving and retired policy makers diplomats, defence, academic, think-tank, civil society and media representatives.
Executive Director of the RCSS, Amb. (Retd.) Ravinatha Aryasinha who moderated the session, noted that beyond assessing the immediate effects of the multiple crisis caused by the war in the Middle-East, the discussion was intended to take a futuristic view and critically project both internal and external measures that could be actively pursued to overcome Sri Lanka’s current predicament, which would provide lessons to other comparable regional and ‘Global South’ countries as well.
Dr. Wignaraja opened his presentation by drawing on the IMF’s April 2026 World Economic Outlook, which projects global growth slowing to 3.1% in 2026, with downside risks dominating: prolonged conflict, geopolitical fragmentation, and renewed trade tensions bearing down hardest on emerging and developing economies. It is against this external environment, he said, that Sri Lanka’s vulnerabilities must be understood. From being treated by the IMF as a post – 2022 ‘Poster Child’ of IMF aided economic stabilization and the post-budget optimism built in late 2025, the compounding shocks of Cyclone ‘Ditwah’, and the ramifications of the recent Middle East War had simultaneously hit Sri Lanka through rising oil-gas-fertilizer prices, disrupted remittances, airline and tourism disruptions. It had also resulted in a contraction of exports in general and particularly tea, of which approximately 20% go to the Middle East. Despite this, he also noted that the War also presents Sri Lanka some long-term opportunities. As Gulf states lose their safe-haven status, Sri Lanka could, if it builds the right regulatory, governance, and infrastructure environment, position itself as an Indian Ocean hub for maritime trade, aviation, finance, and professional services. Whether that opportunity is seized or not, he said, depends on decisions and reforms that should taken now.
Two near-term scenarios were outlined by Dr. Wignaraja. In the best case, the Strait of Hormuz remains open, oil prices hold in the $78–90 per barrel range, inflation remains low, and growth is sustained between 2.7% and 4% – a difficult but manageable fiscal position. In the more likely moderate case, persistent disruption pushes oil above $100 per barrel, inflation rises to the 5.6–6.3% range, growth slows to between 2.4% and 3.5%, poverty rises notably, and public finances come under increasing strain. Sri Lanka, he said, appears to be trending toward the moderate scenario, noting however that there remains the risk of a third scenario of a prolonged Middle East War which could be much worse.
During the dialogue that followed, some participants noted that the prescriptions for Sri Lanka’s recovery and enabling sustainable growth are not new, but that the persistent challenge across governments, has been one of non-implementation and the various political economy reasons given for it. Further some questioned whether the IMF model and its responsiveness to the evolving developments compounded the problems faced by Sri Lanka and whether there might be alternate avenues to address some of these issue. Also had Ditwah not struck and the Middle-East war not taken place, whether Sri Lanka had done enough reforms in the intervening years to avoid going back to the IMF was also raised. The suggestion was also made, that besides the peculiar circumstances Sri Lanka is placed due defaulting, other South Asian countries too were caught in a similar ‘dependency trap’ on the Middle-East region where the possibility of conflict and blocking of choke points could well have been anticipated, and hence the need to build greater economic resilience to meet such challenges demands serious re-examination.
In response, Dr. Wignaraja indicated that the IMF is not the problem, and in 2022, with reserves effectively exhausted and no alternative available, it was the only lifeline available. The IMF is a global lender of last resort for countries in an acute balance of payments crisis but this comes with policy conditionalities. Without it, the Sri Lankan people would have faced severe economic insecurity and crisis with no prospects. The deeper failure, he argued, is domestic, with a persistent culture of non-implementation, weak state capacity, and the absence of strategic decision-making have meant that known economic reforms consistently go unexecuted. He also noted that alternative financing instruments, such as climate finance, which could mobilise at best $500 million, fall critically short of Sri Lanka’s debt obligations, and without access to international capital markets, no real development financing exists outside another IMF programme. He also pointed to governance failures, including the recent Treasury cyber breach and a bank fraud case, as actively undermining investor confidence and creditor trust, and raised concern at the possibility that external actors could refrain from committing capital to Sri Lanka under current conditions.
The Ceylon Motor Traders’ Association (CMTA), established in 1919 is the most senior automotive association in Sri Lanka affiliated with the Ceylon Chamber of Commerce, is calling for greater consistency, transparency and fairness in the policies governing the country’s automotive sector, stressing that a sustainable vehicle import framework must ensure a level playing field across the entire industry.
The Association’s concerns come at a time when the automotive sector continues to operate under significant fiscal and regulatory pressures, with recent policy measures, including the introduction of a 50% surcharge on vehicles, adding further complexity to an already challenging market. While the CMTA recognises the Government’s need to manage foreign exchange, generate revenue and regulate vehicle imports responsibly, it believes that such measures must be structured in a manner that does not disproportionately disadvantage legitimate businesses or distort competition between different segments of the market.
At the centre of the Association’s concerns is the continued application of a blanket 15% depreciation on the Cost, Insurance and Freight (CIF) value of used vehicle imports for duty calculation purposes. The CMTA maintains that this mechanism creates an unintended advantage for certain used vehicle imports, particularly when vehicles entering Sri Lanka as used units can be virtually identical to brand-new vehicles in terms of model, specification and, in most cases, mileage.
The Association estimates that the existing depreciation mechanism resulted in approximately Rs. 40 billion in lost to government revenue in 2025 alone. Without corrective action, a similar level of revenue leakage could occur in 2026, representing a significant loss at a time when government revenue remains critical to strengthening public finances and supporting national development.
The issue, the CMTA emphasises, is not about restricting consumer choice or opposing the used vehicle market rather, it is about ensuring that vehicles entering the country are assessed fairly and consistently, based on their actual value and circumstances. When two substantially identical vehicles can attract different levels of taxation simply because one has been registered overseas before being imported, the Association believes the resulting disparity warrants policy reconsideration.
The CMTA argues that the same principle of fairness should also apply when considering the impact of newer fiscal measures, including the recent 50% surcharge. Such a substantial additional cost can have implications across the automotive value chain, affecting vehicle prices, consumer affordability, business viability and the broader ecosystem supporting vehicle sales and after-sales services.
Sampath Bank PLC announced the appointment of Dilip de S Wijeyeratne as Deputy Chairman, effective 10th September 2026, further strengthening the Bank’s leadership as it advances its strategic priorities and continues to evolve as a purpose-led, technology-enabled financial institution.
Wijeyeratne brings extensive experience across banking, finance, risk management and compliance, investment banking and treasury, complemented by a strong understanding of corporate governance, strategic planning and financial markets. His breadth of experience and forward-looking perspective will support Sampath Bank’s focus on translating purpose and strategy into sustainable growth, while advancing data-driven decision-making and the intelligent application of artificial intelligence across the organisation.
Wijeyeratne’s association with Sampath Bank spans nearly eight years. He joined the Bank as a Non-Independent, Non-Executive Director in November 2018 and was appointed an Independent Director in August 2019. He subsequently served as Senior Independent Director from May 2022 and continued as an Independent, Non-Executive Director from June 2026. He currently serves as Chairman of the Board Audit Committee and contributes to the Bank’s Sustainability, Human Resources and Remuneration, Treasury, Strategic Planning, Nominations and Governance, and Related Party Transactions Review committees.
A senior finance and banking professional and principal consultant,Wijeyeratne provides advisory services to organisations across the Middle East, Sri Lanka and Australia. His professional career includes senior roles with HSBC Group in Bahrain, where he held responsibility for finance and operations, global markets and treasury, corporate treasury sales and asset and liability management. He subsequently moved into entrepreneurship and advisory services, providing financial and strategic consultancy to private and public sector organisations.
In addition to his responsibilities at Sampath Bank, Wijeyeratne serves as Senior Independent Director of Singer (Sri Lanka) PLC and Hayleys Fibre PLC, and as an Independent, Non-Executive Director of Janashakthi Insurance PLC. His extensive governance experience across these institutions has provided him with broad exposure to financial oversight, risk, strategy and corporate governance.
Wijeyeratne is a Fellow Member of the Institute of Chartered Accountants of Sri Lanka, a Fellow Member of the Chartered Institute of Management Accountants, UK, and a Graduate Member of the Australian Institute of Company Directors. His combination of financial expertise, governance experience and strategic insight positions him to make a significant contribution to Sampath Bank’s continued growth and transformation.
KOKO, Sri Lanka’s leading Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) platform, has partnered with Ceylinco General Insurance to introduce Sri Lanka’s first customised medical insurance offering designed exclusively around the needs of KOKO customers.
The partnership marks a first for Sri Lanka’s fintech and insurance sectors, bringing together Ceylinco General Insurance’s decades of expertise in health insurance with KOKO’s understanding of its customer community to create a medical protection solution built specifically for the digital lifestyle and financial needs of KOKO users.
Unlike a standard health insurance product adapted for a partner platform, this offering has been developed as a customised value package for KOKO customers, focusing on accessibility, affordability and ease of activation within the digital journey they already use. The policy provides medical insurance cover of up to USD 40,000, offering meaningful protection against hospitalisation, treatment costs and major medical expenses.
ITS Giuseppe Garibaldi’ departs Colombo
Green Climate Fund (GCF) Regional Dialogue for East and South Asia will be held from 14 to 17 September 2026 at Cinnamon Life at City of Dreams Hotel, Colombo
Showers will occur in the Western, North-western and Sabaragamuwa provinces and in Kandy, Nuwara-Eliya, Galle and Matara districts
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