A looming power crisis is casting an ominous shadow over the country, with engineers warning that the current “no power cut” situation may not last beyond the Sinhala and Tamil New Year due to worsening diesel shortages and ongoing coal-related disruptions.

A senior electrical engineer, attached to the Ceylon Electricity Board Engineers Union, cautioned that while authorities appear to be managing the system for now, the underlying fuel constraints are reaching a critical point.

He told The Island: “At the moment, there are no scheduled power cuts across the country. But this is being maintained under significant strain. With the diesel shortage and unresolved coal issues, sustaining uninterrupted supply, beyond the New Year period, will be extremely challenging.”

The engineer noted that thermal power generation — particularly diesel-based plants — has become increasingly difficult to sustain due to limited fuel stocks and logistical bottlenecks. At the same time, the substandard quality coal supply issues that have plagued recent shipments continue to undermine the efficiency of base-load generation.

“We are stretching available resources to avoid immediate outages. owever, unless there is a rapid improvement in fuel availability, the system will be forced into load shedding soon after the New Year,” he warned.

According to him, authorities are likely to delay any scheduled outages until after the festive season to avoid public backlash and economic disruption during a traditionally sensitive period.

“Most probably, they will try to continue like this until the New Year. But after that, daytime or peak-time load shedding becomes almost inevitable if the situation remains unchanged,” he added.

Energy analysts say the warning reflects a deeper structural vulnerability within the power sector, where over-reliance on imported fossil fuels — particularly diesel and coal — continues to expose the system to external shocks and procurement failures.

The recent use of substandard coal has already resulted in reduced generation capacity at the country’s sole coal power plant at Norochcholai, compounding the pressure on thermal plants to bridge the shortfall. Engineers say this has forced operators to depend more heavily on costly diesel generation — an option now constrained by supply shortages.

Industry sources indicate that demand is also on the rise, particularly during night peak hours, possibly driven by increased reliance on electricity for cooking, amid gas shortages, further tightening the supply-demand balance.

Despite the absence of official announcements, insiders suggest contingency planning for load shedding is already underway.

“If the fuel situation does not improve within the next few weeks, controlled power cuts will be the only viable option to protect the grid from a total system failure,” the engineer stressed.

The warning comes at a time when the country is attempting to maintain economic stability following successive crises, with uninterrupted power supply considered critical for industry, commerce, and daily life.

However, unless urgent corrective measures are taken to secure reliable fuel supplies and stabilise generation capacity, the return of power cuts — including during daytime hours — appears increasingly unavoidable, an expert said.

By Ifham Nizam