Business
Sri Lanka’s recovery reveals a ‘numerical puzzle’ in employment stats
Factory output rises, but many remain outside the labour market
Sri Lanka’s latest economic indicators point to a curious numerical puzzle as industrial production is rising while labour force participation has not moved in tandem.Data for January 2026 show that the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) rose 4.4% year-on-year to 99.3, signalling a modest improvement in manufacturing activity compared with January 2025. The expansion was led mainly by food products, which grew 10.6%, wearing apparel which increased 12.5%, and other non-metallic mineral products, which recorded 3.6% growth.
Ordinarily, such growth in factory output would be expected to draw more people into the workforce. Yet Sri Lanka’s labour market statistics tell a slightly different story.
The labour force participation rate has been in the high 40% range in recent years. Latest estimates show it at around 46.9%, compared with about 49.9% in an earlier period, suggesting that a noticeable segment of the working-age population has remained outside the labour market even as production has begun to pick up.
In other words, factories appear to be producing more, but the pool of workers actively participating in the labour market has not expanded at the same pace.
Meanwhile, the unemployment rate has remained relatively low, just above 4%, indicating that those who are actively seeking employment are generally able to find work.
Business sentiment indicators also point to continued momentum in the real economy. The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for manufacturing has remained above the 50 point threshold, signalling expansion in factory activity, though slightly less than the stronger readings recorded toward the end of last year. The services sector PMI, meanwhile, continues to reflect steady business activity.
An economic analyst told The Island that taken together, the numbers suggest that Sri Lanka’s productive sectors are slowly regaining their footing after the severe economic stresses of recent years, but the gap between rising industrial output and subdued labour force participation would raise a question for economists and policymakers if they put their mind to the matter,
“If factories are producing more, where are the workers? Where is more hiring?”, he asked.
“One could argue that workers who exited the labour market during the economic crisis through migration or shifts to informal activity may not yet have fully returned. And the gap is unlikely to be explained by automation in factories. If that is the case, a sustained revival in export-oriented industries such as apparel and food processing should gradually draw more people back into the workforce,” he explained.
“So, the numbers underline a simple but important challenge for policymakers to ensure that improvements in industrial production are matched by broader participation in the labour market. Until more people return to the workforce, Sri Lanka’s recovery may continue to show this curious numerical puzzle of factories producing more, but fewer people showing up in the labour statistics,” he argued.
By Sanath Nanayakkare
Business
Sri Lanka educates women but keeps many out of work, ADB warns
Sri Lanka has one of the most educated female populations in South Asia, yet only about one in three women participates in the labour force, making female workforce participation among the lowest in the region and leaving a significant source of economic growth untapped.
That paradox took centre stage at a knowledge forum organised by the Asian Development Bank (ADB) in Colombo on June 3, where government officials, labour authorities, academics and private-sector leaders examined the deep-rooted barriers preventing women from fully participating in the economy and explored reforms needed to unlock their economic potential.
Opening the event, ADB Country Director for Sri Lanka Shannon Cowlin said the issue extends beyond gender equality and has become a critical economic challenge for a country seeking sustained growth and inclusive development.
“Empowering women to participate fully in the labour force is not only a matter of equality; it is essential for inclusive economic growth and poverty reduction in Sri Lanka,” she said.
The forum, held under ADB’s Serendipity Knowledge Programme (SKOP), focused on findings from a recent ADB-supported study exploring the factors behind Sri Lanka’s persistently low female labour force participation.
Cowlin noted that despite notable progress in education and human development, Sri Lanka continues to lag behind on measures of gender equality and women’s economic participation. She said multiple studies have shown that the factors shaping women’s labour force participation are layered, interconnected and multidimensional.
According to the study, many women remain concentrated in informal, low-paid and insecure employment with limited access to social protection and few opportunities for career advancement. Social and cultural expectations continue to place primary caregiving responsibilities on women, often restricting their ability to pursue careers or remain in full-time employment.
The lack of affordable childcare services, unequal access to digital skills and technology, concerns over workplace safety, sexual harassment and inadequate transport options were identified as major obstacles preventing women from entering or remaining in the workforce.
“These are complex challenges that require action from all stakeholders – government, development partners, the private sector, civil society and academia,” Cowlin said.
She stressed that improving women’s labour force participation would require more than isolated policy interventions, calling instead for structural transformation, stronger infrastructure and care services, progressive workplace practices and broader societal changes that improve women’s mobility, safety and economic agency.
The event featured a presentation by Professor Dileni Gunawardena of the University of Peradeniya, who shared findings from ADB’s study on female labour force participation, followed by a panel discussion involving representatives from the International Labour Organisation, the Department of Labour, MAS Holdings and John Keells Holdings.
Panelists discussed measures to improve the enabling environment for women, including greater investment in the care economy, expanded childcare facilities, enhanced skills development, creating safe, supportive workplaces and career pathways for upward mobility.
Participants agreed that increasing women’s participation in the workforce is not merely ‘a nice to have’ but an economic necessity, particularly as Sri Lanka seeks to accelerate recovery, boost productivity and achieve more inclusive growth.
The ADB said Sri Lanka’s economic recovery presents a unique opportunity to address long-standing structural barriers facing women and to build a more inclusive labour market that fully utilises the country’s human capital.
By Sanath Nanayakkare
Business
ComBank offers exclusive financial solutions to the ‘Guardians of the Skies’
Reinforcing its commitment to those who serve the nation, the Commercial Bank of Ceylon has entered into a Memorandum of Understanding with the Sri Lanka Air Force (SLAF) to introduce a comprehensive suite of concessionary financial facilities for its officers and other ranks.
The partnership, unveiled in a year that marks the 75th anniversary of the Air Force, which was founded in March 1951 as the Royal Ceylon Air Force, reflects a shared recognition of the critical role played by the SLAF as the steadfast ‘Guardians of the skies,’ entrusted with safeguarding the country’s security and sovereignty.
Under the terms of the agreement, Commercial Bank will extend a range of specially tailored financial products to SLAF personnel, including personal loans, leasing facilities, housing loans and credit cards. These facilities will be offered at concessionary interest rates, alongside concessions on documentation charges, enabling Air Force personnel to access financial support on more favourable terms.
The Bank said the initiative is part of its continuing efforts to deliver best-in-class lending solutions that are both accessible and responsive to the diverse needs of its customers. By offering attractive and affordable repayment structures, the scheme is designed to empower SLAF officers and other ranks to meet their personal financial requirements with greater ease and flexibility.
A key feature of the programme is the ability for beneficiaries to align repayments with their income patterns, ensuring that the facilities remain practical and sustainable over the long term. This flexibility, combined with preferential pricing, is expected to make a meaningful difference to the financial wellbeing of Air Force personnel and their families.
Business
Treasury Bill rate hike compounds stock market volatility
The CSE was extremely volatile yesterday mainly due to external and internal negative factors.
‘The escalation of the war situation in West Asia and the proposed tariff hike on Sri Lanka’s exports to the US by the Trump administration are worsening Sri Lanka’s economic woes. Further, the government’s decision to increase the Treasury Bill rate has also created some uncertainty in the market, stock analysts said.
The All Share Price Index was up by 249.83 points, while the S and P SL20 rose by 67.61 points. Turnover stood at Rs 2.79 billion with 11 crossings.
Companies that mainly contributed to the turnover by way of crossings were: Chevron Lubricants 1.5 million shares crossed to the tune of Rs 294 million and its shares traded at Rs 196, TJ Lanka 2.9 million shares crossed for Rs 90.8 million; its shares traded at Rs 31, Citizens Development Business Finance 2.5 million shares crossed to the tune of Rs 80.2 million; its shares traded at Rs 32.50.
ACL Cables 634,248 shares crossed for Rs 60.9 million; its shares traded at Rs 96, CCS 438,000 shares crossed to the tune of Rs 57.4 million; its shares traded at Rs 131, Overseas Realties 991,500 shares crossed for Rs 49.6 million; its shares traded at Rs 50 and Access Engineering 653,000 shares crossed to the tune of Rs 49.3 million; its shares sold at Rs 75.50.
In the retail market companies that mainly contributed to the turnover were; Dialog Rs 133 million (3.2 million shares traded), Seylan Bank (Non-Voting) Rs 110 million (1.7 million shares traded), Colombo Dockyard Rs 96.8 million (751,548 shares traded), Ceylinco Holdings (Non-Voting) Rs 77.5 million (516,000 shares traded), Sampath Bank Rs 74.2 million (530,000 shares traded), JKH Rs 74 million (3.7 million shares traded) and LMF Rs 65 million (781,000 shares traded). During the day 123 million share volumes changed hands in 26272 transactions.
It is said that the manufacturing sector, especially Chevron Lubricants and several other firms performed well, while the banking and financial sector performed too.
Yesterday the rupee was quoted flat at Rs 334.50/335.50 to the US dollar in the spot market on, unchanged from the previous day’s close, dealers said, while bond yields were broadly steady.
The telegraphic transfer rate for Sri Lanka’s rupee against the US dollar was Rs 330.50 buying, Rs 339.50 selling; euro was Rs 381.1884 selling, Rs 395.1054 buying; and the pound Rs 442.6620 buying Rs 456.7076 selling.
A bond maturing on 01.08.2030 was quoted at 12.12/20 percent, down from 12.15.25 percent.
A bond maturing on 15.06.2034 was quoted at 13.12/20 percent, down from 13.15/25 percent.
A bond maturing on 15.03.2035 was quoted flat at 13.15/25 percent.
By Hiran H Senewiratne
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