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Biden Presidency Initiates Significant Policy Shifts

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Sri Lanka and the Gotabaya Executive may be in for a rough ride

by Kumar David

The changes in both domestic and foreign policy initiated by the Biden Administration are quite significant. On the domestic side changes include a sharp turn in economic strategy, an energetic intervention in dealing with the pandemic, a more plural approach to race relations, positive environmentalism and rethinking border controls. I can touch only on the first today. The effect of American economic policy on Sri Lanka will be felt through the appreciation of the dollar against LKR and the possible upward movement of global interest rates both of which are bad news for a country mired in foreign debt. The determination of the US administration to chart a sharply different economic strategy from that of the last four years, and given the importance of the dollar and the size of the US economy, this will have sizeable effect on the rest of the world. I will spend a few paragraphs on this before turning to human-rights issues which are more likely to impact us directly.

It is likely that there will be an upturn in the US, Chinese and global economies in the next two quarters as the worst of the pandemic passes – fingers crossed since the devastation that covid-variants may inflict on the world is still a known unknown. The $1.9 trillion covid relief, unemployment support and handout package that Biden forced through Congress last week comes atop $2.7 trillion injected into the economy for covid relief since the start of the pandemic and Obama’s stimulus package of 2009 which finally grew to $830 billion by 2019. American Federal debt has risen to about $25 trillion; this is separate from Quantitative Easing whereby the Federal Reserve (FED) bought corporate and government bonds to stimulate the economy after the 2008-9 Great Recession. It is difficult to estimate how much of this still remains on the FED’s balance sheet but I estimate that at its peak the FED had doled out about $5 trillion.

Indications at the moment are that most economies have weathered the pandemic-induced dip with varying degrees of damage and that the next 12 to 18 months will be a period of modest recovery. The US, China and India – I am not too confident of the EU and Russia – will experience a return to pre-pandemic growth, at least for a while; others like Sri Lanka may be less fortunate for reasons I will discuss anon. The relevance of this to today’s column is how this could impact on the Sri Lankan Double-Paksa (two Rajapaksas) led state? Usually a universal upturn will benefit all players in the global market and Sri Lanka should see some increase in demand for its products but there are also three downside factors. The consequences of a very likely rise in world interest rates and appreciation of the dollar, the American led onslaught on human-rights violators and the anti-BJP backlash in Tamil Nadu. The consequences of the first of these is of course directly economic, the second and third will have political consequences with economic spill over.

Although a school known as Modern Monetary theory (MMT) thinks otherwise, it is impossible to avoid inflation if there is endless money creation. The response of central banks to inflation is to raise interest rates. True enough the FED has for a long time aimed at an average inflation rate of 2% but it has doggedly remained much lower – in fact US inflation has remained below 4% for the last 30 years despite the US Federal debt increasing from $3 trillion to $25 trillion. Now in the context of the current bout of planned expenditure the FED hopes inflation will climb from very low values to 2.4%, enabling it to raise interest rates to above 3% sometime in 2022.

This would help stabilise US monetary policy but spells bad news for heavily indebted countries like Sri Lanka. Inflation has a knock on effect on interest rates and bond yields. Without getting technical about it we can expect our debt servicing costs – Lanka will need to keep borrowing to meet its current account deficits and take new loans to service repayment and interest on existing debt – to become more onerous in the coming years as a consequence of America, China and other rich countries pouring funds into new domestic programmes. There is now talk of a new $3 trillion infrastructure programme being steered through Congress by Team Biden before the 2022 Congress elections at which the Republicans are expected to recapture some ground. Team Double-Paksa will have no option but to offer its rear to China in exchange for further loans if it is not to default on debt servicing; a new 10 billion yuan ($1.5 billion) swap-deal was signed a few days ago. The rupee briefly crossed the 200 to a US$ mark on March 17 and is at 199 at this time of writing. It will drift beyond 200 as the bludgeoning in Geneva seeps into the calculations of market players.

 

The post-Geneva wasteland

There has been a profound shift of foreign policy from Trump’s idiosyncratic and droll circus. The obvious change is a much greater emphasis on human rights as the Double-Paksas are learning to their cost. The UNHRC resolution calls for enhanced monitoring of Sri Lanka’s progress in reconciliation and accountability. Since the government will do damn-all, the oral update to the Council at its 48th session and written update at its 49th session will be negative (unless you believe that leopards can change their spots and tigers their stripes). A comprehensive report is to be presented at the 51st including recommendations for action. There are three Regular Sessions per year in March, June and September. Funding of $3 million for the Commissioner’s Office for this part of the work has been promised by Australia and others and monitoring will commence immediately. The Resolution had over 40 co-sponsors and there may be long term impact on trade and restrictions may be imposed on alleged miscreants.

The Biden Administration is going out on a limb to show that it is different from Trumps insane interlude. This is partly for domestic consumption and partly to correct damage that Trump did to American interests around the world. His love affair with North Korea’s Kim reduced the mighty US into a caricature; America wants NATO as much as NATO needs America and Biden now has a salvage operation on his plate both on NATO and environmentalism. These should be doable but what may be more difficult to salvage is the Iran Nuclear Deal. Iran has made further progress towards a bomb since Trump scuttled the agreement which it obviously will not be willing to reverse. The US for its part is demanding new concessions before it lifts sanctions. Most likely over time individual countries will overlook the American stand and do business with Iran as suits their own interests.

A tougher human rights regimen will be prominent. Sri Lanka will not have an easy ride with Asian countries including those who abstained in Geneva (India, Japan, Indonesia and Nepal) or for that matter those who voted in its favour such as Pakistan and the Philippines. No one will overtly assist the Sri Lankan state to defy or undercut the stipulations of the Resolution. The country seems to be sailing into uncharted waters and the horizon looks gloomy. Worst of all the Captain is an inexperienced novice and the older and shrewder First Officer is keeping out of sight except for a short holiday in Bangladesh – a successful one!

Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in Alaska: “There are a number of areas where we are fundamentally at odds, including China’s actions in Xinjiang, Hong Kong, Tibet and Taiwan . . .” America may take limited action against China over its “genocidal campaign” against Uighur Muslims. China’s top diplomat Yang Jiechi reacted strongly, warning the US against meddling in its “internal affairs” and challenging its own rights record using the Black Lives Matter as an example. The Chinese unfortunately picked a very bad example because the massive BLM movement drawing in whites, blacks and Hispanics is a demonstration of the strength not the weakness of a more open society. The attack on Putin too is focussed on issues of democratic rights and attempts to murder opposition leaders. Therefore to return to my starting point, given the turn of the Biden administration to rights issues as its foreign policy plank, Gotabaya would be wise to learn three Singaporean principles enunciated by two Prime Ministers, Lee Kuan Yew and Lee Hsien Loong.

 

= Always put Singapore’s interests first and make it clear to the big powers that Singapore has no intention of meddling or taking sides in geopolitical manoeuvres.

= Ensure that the Government of Singapore functions within the remit of Singaporean law and give no room for outsiders to allege that it curtails or violates the rule of law or its binding responsibilities.

= Maintain fairness between ethnic communities (Chinese, Malay and Tamil) so that rifts that open the door to outside interference are precluded.

The Sri Lankan government is not free to do any of this because the economy is in near collapse and the possibility of default on foreign debt makes it dependent on China. This undermines its ability to act as a free and independent agent. At home the regime is beholden to extremist nationalists and monks. The military is treated by the Executive as though it embodies the state. A military that has been brutalised in a civil war is unsafe. Last week I pleaded with international actors to assist the people to protect their freedoms. The mechanisms that the UNHRC has put in place to monitor the regime are admirable and will very helpful. I am confident that not even this neophyte Executive will spurn world opinion brazenly.

 

 



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Political violence stalking Trump administration

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A scene that unfolded during the shooting incident at the recent White House Correspondents’ Dinner in Washington. (BBC)

It would not be particularly revelatory to say that the US is plagued by ‘gun violence’. It is a deeply entrenched and widespread malaise that has come in tandem with the relative ease with which firearms could be acquired and owned by sections of the US public, besides other causes.

However, a third apparent attempt on the life of US President Donald Trump in around two and a half years is both thought-provoking and unsettling for the defenders of democracy. After all, whatever its short comings the US remains the world’s most vibrant democracy and in fact the ‘mightiest’ one. And the US must remain a foremost democracy for the purpose of balancing and offsetting the growing power of authoritarian states in the global power system, who are no friends of genuine representational governance.

Therefore, the recent breaching of the security cordon surrounding the White House Correspondents’ Dinner in Washington at which President Trump and his inner Cabinet were present, by an apparently ‘Lone Wolf’ gunman, besides raising issues relating to the reliability of the security measures deployed for the President, indicates a notable spike in anti-VVIP political violence in particular in the US. It is a pointer to a strong and widespread emergence of anti-democratic forces which seem to be gaining in virulence and destructiveness.

The issues raised by the attack are in the main for the US’ political Right and its supporters. They have smugly and complacently stood by while the extremists in their midst have taken centre stage and begun to dictate the course of Right wing politics. It is the political culture bred by them that leads to ‘Lone Wolf’ gunmen, for instance, who see themselves as being repressed or victimized, taking the law into their own hands, so to speak, and perpetrating ‘revenge attacks’ on the state and society.

A disproportionate degree of attention has been paid particularly internationally to Donald Trump’s personality and his eccentricities but such political persons cannot be divorced from the political culture in which they originate and have their being. That is, “structural” questions matter. Put simply, Donald Trump is a ‘true son’ of the Far Right, his principal support base. The issues raised are therefore for the President as well as his supporters of the Right.

We are obliged to respect the choices of the voting public but in the case of Trump’s election to the highest public position in the US, this columnist is inclined to see in those sections that voted for Trump blind followers of the latter who cared not for their candidate’s suitability, in every relevant respect, and therefore acted irrationally. It would seem that the Right in the US wanted their candidate to win by ‘hook or by crook’ and exercise power on their behalf.

By making the above observations this columnist does not intend to imply that voting publics everywhere in the world of democracy cast their vote sensibly. In the case of Sri Lanka, for example, the question could be raised whether the voters of the country used their vote sensibly when voting into office the majority of Executive Presidents and other persons holding high public office. The obvious answer is ‘no’ and this should lead to a wider public discussion on the dire need for thoroughgoing voter education. The issue is a ‘huge’ one that needs to be addressed in the appropriate forums and is beyond the scope of this column.

Looking back it could be said that the actions of Trump and his die-hard support base led to the Rule of Law in the US being undermined as perhaps never before in modern times. A shaming moment in this connection was the protest march, virtually motivated by Trump, of his supporters to the US Capitol on January 6th, 2021, with the aim of scuttling the presidential poll result of that year. Much violence and unruly behaviour, as known, was let loose. This amounted to denigrating the democratic process and encouraging the violent take over of the state.

In a public address, prior to the unruly conduct of his supporters, Trump is on record as blaring forth the following: ‘We won this election and we won by a landslide’, ‘We will stop the steal’, ‘We will never give up. We will never concede. It doesn’t happen’, ‘If you don’t fight like hell, you’re not going to have a country anymore.’

It is plain to see that such inflammatory utterances could lead impressionable minds in particular to revolt violently. Besides, they should have led the more rationally inclined to wonder whether their candidate was the most suitable person to hold the office of President.

Unfortunately, the latter process was not to be and the question could be raised whether the US is in the ‘safest pair of hands’. Needless to say, as events have revealed, Donald Trump is proving to be one of the most erratic heads of state the US has ever had.

However, the latest attempt on the life of President Trump suggests that considerable damage has been done to the democratic integrity of the US and none other than the President himself has to take on himself a considerable proportion of the blame for such degeneration, besides the US’ Far Right. They could be said to be ‘reaping the whirlwind.’

It is a time for soul-searching by the US Right. The political Right has the right to exist, so the speak, in a functional democracy but it needs to take cognizance of how its political culture is affecting the democratic integrity or health of the US. Ironically, the repressive and chauvinistic politics advocated by it is having the effect of activating counter-violence of the most murderous kind, as was witnessed at the White House Correspondents’ Dinner. Continued repressive politics could only produce more such incidents that could be self-defeating for the US.

Some past US Presidents were assassinated but the present political violence in the country brings into focus as perhaps never before the role that an anti-democratic political culture could play in unraveling the gains that the US has made over the decades. A duty is cast on pro-democracy forces to work collectively towards protecting the democratic integrity and strength of the US.

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22nd Anniversary Gala …action-packed event

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The Skyliners: Shanaka Viswakula (bass), Mario Ranasuriya (lead guitar), Daryl D'Souza (keyboards) and Kushmin Balasuriya (drums)

The Editor-in-Chief of The Sri Lankan Anchorman, a Toronto-based monthly, celebrating Sri Lankan community life in Canada, is none other than veteran Sri Lankan journalist Dirk Tissera, who moved to Canada in 1997. His wife, Michelle, whom he calls his “tower of strength”, is the Design Editor.

According to reports coming my way, the paper has turned out to be extremely popular in Toronto.

In fact, The Sri Lankan Anchorman won a press award in Toronto for excellence in editorial content and visual presentation.

However, the buzz in the air in Canada, right now, is The Sri Lankan Anchorman’s 22nd Anniversary Gala, to be held on Friday, 12 June, 2026, at the J&J Swagat Banquet Convention Centre, in Toronto.

An action-packed programme has been put together for the night, featuring some of the very best artistes in the Toronto scene.

The Skylines, who are classified as ‘the local musical band in Toronto’, will headline the event.

Dirk Tissera and wife Michelle: Supporting Sri Lanka-Canada community events, in Toronto, since launching The Anchorman
in 2002

They have performed and backed many legendary Sri Lanka singers.

According to Dirk, The Skylines can belt out a rhythm with gusto … be it Western, Sinhala or Tamil hits.

Also adding sparkle to the evening will be the legendary Fahmy Nazick, who, with his smooth and velvety vocals, will have the crowd on the floor.

Fahmy who was a household name, back in Sri Lanka, will be flying down from Virginia, USA.

He has captivated audiences in Sri Lanka, the Middle East and North America, and this will be his fourth visit to Toronto – back by popular demand,

Cherry DeLuna, who is described by Dirk as a powerhouse, also makes her appearance on stage and is all set to stir up the tempo with her cool and easy delivery.

“She’s got a great voice and vocal range that has captivated audiences out here”, says Dirk.

Chamil Welikala, said to be one of the hottest DJs in town, will be spinning his magic … in English, Sinhala, Tamil and Latin.


Both Jive and Baila competitions are on the cards among many other surprises on the night of 12 June.

This is The Anchorman’s fifth annual dance in a row – starting from 2022, 2023, 2024 and 2025 – and both Dirk and Michelle, and The Anchorman, have always produced elegant social events in Toronto.

“We intend to knock this one out of the park,” the duo says, adding that Western music and Sinhala and Tamil songs is something they’ve always delivered and the crowd loves it.

“We have always supported Sri Lanka-Canada community events, in Toronto, since launching The Anchorman, in 2002, and we intend to keep it that way.”

No doubt, there will be a large crowd of Sri Lankans, from all communities, turning up, on 12 June, to support Dirk, Michelle and The Anchorman.

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Face Pack for Radiant Skin

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* Apple and Orange:

Blend a few apple and orange pieces together. Add to it a pinch of turmeric and one tablespoon of honey. Apply it to the face and neck and rinse off after 30 minutes. This face pack is suitable for all skin types.

According to experts, apple is one of the best fruits for your skin health with Vitamin A, B complex and Vitamin C and minerals, while, with the orange peel, excessive oil secretion can be easily balanced.

* Mango and Curd:

Ripe mango pulp, mixed with curd, can be rubbed directly onto the skin to remove dirt and cleanse clogged pores. Rinse off after a few minutes.

Yes, of course, mango is a tasty and delicious fruit and this is the mango season in our part of the world, and it has extra-ordinary benefits to skin health. Vitamins C and E in mangoes protect the skin from the UV rays of the sun and promotes cell regeneration. It also promotes skin elasticity and fights skin dullness and acne, while curd, in combination, further adds to it.

*  Grapes and Kiwi:

Take a handful of grapes and make a pulp of it. Simultaneously, take one kiwi fruit and mash it after peeling its skin. Now mix them and add some yoghurt to it. Apply it on your face for few minutes and wash it off.

Here again experts say that kiwi is the best nutrient-rich fruit with high vitamin C, minerals, Omega-3 fatty acids and vitamin E, while grapes contain flavonoids, which is an antioxidant that protects the skin from free radical damage. This homemade face pack acts as a natural cleanser and slows down the ageing process.

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