News
An October Surprise
By Gwynne Dyer
An ‘October Surprise’ in the United States is now almost inevitable, because that will be Donald Trump’s last chance to get re-elected legitimately. He might try to cling to office even if he loses the vote, but it would be a lot easier and neater if he actually won a majority in the Electoral College on 3 November.
‘October Surprise’ is the American political term for a fake crisis, usually involving foreigners, that is ‘discovered’ by a president trailing badly in the polls in the last few weeks before an election. All other issues are forgotten, Americans rally around the flag, and the incumbent wins on a surge of patriotism. Or that’s the theory, at least.
The same thing happens elsewhere too, of course, and not necessarily in October. That’s when it needs to happen in to win a US presidential election, but there’s a ‘July Surprise’ happening in Belarus right now (because the election there is set for 9 August).
Last week Alexander Lukashenko, the strongman who rules Belarus, ‘discovered’ Russian mercenaries in his country. They were unarmed and on their way to Istanbul, but Lukashenko says there is a plot: “So far there is no open warfare, no shooting, the trigger has not yet been pulled, but an attempt to organise a massacre in the centre of Minsk is already obvious.” Only I can save our country! Vote for me!
Trump will need something like that because otherwise the coronavirus is going to kill him politically. This was not true as recently as early June, because up until then the United States was not performing especially badly in dealing with the pandemic.
It LOOKED a lot worse because of Trump’s bizarre behaviour – the endless, shameless lies, the narcissism, the suggestions that people should inject bleach, etc. – but in terms of Covid-19 deaths per million people the American fatality rate was still lower than any other major Western countries except Germany and Canada.
The United States was late to go into lockdown, but so were they all, at least compared to most Asian countries. Until recently, if you were a Trump supporter, you could still believe he was doing a good job.
It was Trump’s rush to end the lockdown, not all the earlier nonsense, that did the real damage. He believed that he would lose the election if the economy didn’t revive, but by opening up too fast he managed to revive the pandemic at the same time.
The numbers tell the tale. This week America will record its 160,000th death from Covid-19. That’s almost a quarter of all the coronavirus deaths in the world. Much worse, US deaths are still going up while deaths elsewhere in the developed world have fallen steeply. That’s almost entirely due to Trump.
Take Canada, for example. It’s very similar to the US in economy and demography, but different in social and political terms. Canada has universal health care and a much less drastic divide between the rich and the rest, for example, which probably explains why America’s cumulative death rate per million is 484, while Canada’s is only 237.
The history is therefore an American death rate twice as high as Canada’s: not great, but structurally inevitable. By now, however, Canada has managed to get its deaths down to 10 a day, whereas America is back up around a 1,000 a day.
Even allowing for Canada’s much smaller population, that is 10 times worse. This is what coming out of lockdown too early did to the United States, and it is all down to Donald Trump.
The pandemic is raging again in the United States, and there may be a quarter-million deaths there by election day in November. US ‘deaths per million’ are going up three per day, which means that the US will overtake Chile (now 509) in less than two weeks, Italy (582) in a month, Spain (609) in five weeks. It might even catch up with the UK (682) by election day.
Most of those newly dead Americans will be over 60, so probably Trump supporters. Their relatives and friends are bound to notice eventually. Joe Biden’s lead over Donald Trump in the polls has already widened to 10%. How could Trump turn that around in the remaining 90 S days?
His only hope is to manufacture an October Surprise: a restaged ‘Tonkin Gulf Incident’ with China, perhaps, or a terrorist ‘threat’ so humongous that it gives him a pretext to declare martial law nationwide. Or maybe he will arrange the premature certification of a Covid-19 vaccine so he can roll it out just before the vote. If it kills a lot of people later on, who cares? He won.
Trump knows that if he loses the election he will spend the rest of his life in court, possibly even in jail. He will do whatever it takes to win. It isn’t over yet.
News
CEBEU warns of operational disruptions amid uncertainty over CEB restructuring
The Ceylon Electricity Board Engineers’ Union (CEBEU) yesterday warned that uncertainty surrounding the ongoing restructuring of the Ceylon Electricity Board (CEB) had forced many employees to refrain from performing their regular duties, raising concerns about potential disruptions to electricity sector operations.
The engineers’ union said the current situation had arisen due to what it described as either deliberate actions or extreme negligence in implementing the restructuring process, which has created significant confusion among staff who previously served under the CEB.
According to the union, although the state power utility has been formally restructured and new companies established, a large majority of former CEB employees have yet to receive official appointment letters, confirming their positions in the newly formed entities.
“The reality is that the institution, previously known as the Ceylon Electricity Board, no longer exists in its earlier form, yet most employees, who served under it, have not been issued proper appointment letters, or related documentation, assigning them to the newly established companies,” the CEBEU said.
The union said that while some workers had been issued “assignation letters”, those documents merely indicate the institution to which an employee has been attached and do not clearly define employment conditions, responsibilities, authority, or reporting structures.
“As a result, employees currently lack the necessary legal framework confirming their employment status, their duties, the authority under which they operate, and who they are accountable to within the new institutions,” the CEBEU said.
The engineers’ union emphasised that the current crisis was not created by employees but was the direct result of, what it called, shortsighted and questionable actions taken by those responsible for implementing the reforms.
It also expressed concern that the relevant Minister, appointed through the National List, had failed to hold meaningful discussions with employees, despite having previously advocated strongly for workers’ rights.
The union said trade union action had been launched only after months of unsuccessful attempts to resolve the issues through verbal requests and written communication with the authorities.
“Despite repeated appeals made over several months, there has been no satisfactory response. Decisions appear to have been taken under the assumption that a government with a strong mandate can proceed without proper consultation,” the union said.
However, the CEBEU stressed that employees engaged in essential operations—including power generation, transmission, and distribution—continue to work in order to ensure electricity supply to the public.
“These staff members are continuing their duties under considerable risk to prevent major disruptions to the electricity supply,” the union noted.
Nevertheless, the union warned that the prevailing uncertainty could affect certain operational activities, and restoration work following breakdowns may take longer than usual.
The CEBEU appealed to the public to understand the situation and expressed regret for any inconvenience that may arise.
“We request the public to understand the situation and cooperate with us during this difficult period. We sincerely regret any inconvenience that may be caused,” the union added.
By Ifham Nizam
News
Remittances up compared to last year before outbreak of war, but the economic picture is not rosy
Sri Lanka Bureau of Foreign Employment (SLBFE) yesterday said that foreign remittances, during January and February this year, had been 32% higher than the corresponding period in the previous year.
According to a press release issued by the SLBFE, Sri Lanka received Rs 1,480.1 mn during January and February this year, whereas in 2025 the country received Rs1,121 mn during the corresponding period. During the first two months of this year, 47,819 Sri Lankans had left the country for employment abroad.
However, Prof. Priyanga Dunusinghe has warned that Sri Lanka could face a catastrophic situation due to a rapid and sharp drop in revenue caused by the escalating Gulf war. Fighting erupted on February 28 following a joint US-Israel attacks on Iran.
Appearing on Derana ‘Big Focus’ on Monday, the Professor in Economics in the Department of Economics, and Head – Department of Information Technology, University of Colombo, Dunusinghe said that that the drop in remittances from the Middle East, as well as exports, should be examined against the backdrop of runaway oil prices.
News
The Netherlands alleges Russian Embassy interfering in World Press Photo Exhibition
The Netherlands Embassy in Colombo has accused the Russian Embassy of trying to limit freedom of expression and right to know in Sri Lanka. The Embassy yesterday issued the following statement: “The Embassy of the Kingdom of the Netherlands’ attention has been drawn to the attempts by the Russian Embassy in Colombo to deny the people of Sri Lanka’s right to information and freedom of expression by demanding photos related to “Russia’s war of aggression” on Ukraine be removed from the World Press Photo exhibition, currently on display in Sri Lanka.
The 2025 edition of the World Press Photo Exhibition was officially opened by Dr Kaushalya Ariyaratne, Deputy Minister of Mass Media, and Wiebe de Boer, Ambassador of the Kingdom of the Netherlands on February 27, 2026, at One Galle Face. The same exhibition will be held in Kandy from 13 to 17 March 2026 at Sahas Uyana.
The Ambassador of the Russian Federation to Sri Lanka visited the exhibition during the weekend of March 7 and 8 and demanded the photographs, related to “Russia’s war of aggression on Ukraine,” be removed from the exhibition, and threatened to stage a protest if the organisers failed to do so.
The exhibition is jointly organised by the Netherlands Embassy, along with the Sri Lanka Press Institute, and the World Press Photo Foundation in the Netherlands.
Continuing the same demand, the Russian Embassy has now approached the Sri Lankan Ministry of Foreign Affairs to remove the said photos from the exhibition in Kandy. The same exhibition is currently underway in the USA and Germany and is showing all around the world in dozens of countries with freedom of expression.
The photos, including the photos that the Russian Embassy in Colombo wanted to hide from the Sri Lankan citizens, are also available online on the World Press Photo website for free for anyone to access them.
The Embassy of the Kingdom of the Netherlands deplores the attempts by any party to compromise people’s right to know and right to freedom of expression. It also amounts to a violation of the host country’s sovereignty if an Embassy attempts to decide what and which content its citizens should see and not. While we, as the Embassy of the Kingdom of the Netherlands, assure the Sri Lankan public that as our commitment to protect press freedom and respect for editorial integrity, we will continue the exhibition in Kandy with its full content without censoring any photos of the exhibition.
The exhibition is open to the public, free of charge, from 10.30am on Friday, March 13, till March 17, at Sahas Uyana in Kandy.”
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