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An October Surprise

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By Gwynne Dyer

An ‘October Surprise’ in the United States is now almost inevitable, because that will be Donald Trump’s last chance to get re-elected legitimately. He might try to cling to office even if he loses the vote, but it would be a lot easier and neater if he actually won a majority in the Electoral College on 3 November.

‘October Surprise’ is the American political term for a fake crisis, usually involving foreigners, that is ‘discovered’ by a president trailing badly in the polls in the last few weeks before an election. All other issues are forgotten, Americans rally around the flag, and the incumbent wins on a surge of patriotism. Or that’s the theory, at least.

The same thing happens elsewhere too, of course, and not necessarily in October. That’s when it needs to happen in to win a US presidential election, but there’s a ‘July Surprise’ happening in Belarus right now (because the election there is set for 9 August).

Last week Alexander Lukashenko, the strongman who rules Belarus, ‘discovered’ Russian mercenaries in his country. They were unarmed and on their way to Istanbul, but Lukashenko says there is a plot: “So far there is no open warfare, no shooting, the trigger has not yet been pulled, but an attempt to organise a massacre in the centre of Minsk is already obvious.” Only I can save our country! Vote for me!

Trump will need something like that because otherwise the coronavirus is going to kill him politically. This was not true as recently as early June, because up until then the United States was not performing especially badly in dealing with the pandemic.

It LOOKED a lot worse because of Trump’s bizarre behaviour – the endless, shameless lies, the narcissism, the suggestions that people should inject bleach, etc. – but in terms of Covid-19 deaths per million people the American fatality rate was still lower than any other major Western countries except Germany and Canada.

The United States was late to go into lockdown, but so were they all, at least compared to most Asian countries. Until recently, if you were a Trump supporter, you could still believe he was doing a good job.

It was Trump’s rush to end the lockdown, not all the earlier nonsense, that did the real damage. He believed that he would lose the election if the economy didn’t revive, but by opening up too fast he managed to revive the pandemic at the same time.

The numbers tell the tale. This week America will record its 160,000th death from Covid-19. That’s almost a quarter of all the coronavirus deaths in the world. Much worse, US deaths are still going up while deaths elsewhere in the developed world have fallen steeply. That’s almost entirely due to Trump.

Take Canada, for example. It’s very similar to the US in economy and demography, but different in social and political terms. Canada has universal health care and a much less drastic divide between the rich and the rest, for example, which probably explains why America’s cumulative death rate per million is 484, while Canada’s is only 237.

The history is therefore an American death rate twice as high as Canada’s: not great, but structurally inevitable. By now, however, Canada has managed to get its deaths down to 10 a day, whereas America is back up around a 1,000 a day.

Even allowing for Canada’s much smaller population, that is 10 times worse. This is what coming out of lockdown too early did to the United States, and it is all down to Donald Trump.

The pandemic is raging again in the United States, and there may be a quarter-million deaths there by election day in November. US ‘deaths per million’ are going up three per day, which means that the US will overtake Chile (now 509) in less than two weeks, Italy (582) in a month, Spain (609) in five weeks. It might even catch up with the UK (682) by election day.

Most of those newly dead Americans will be over 60, so probably Trump supporters. Their relatives and friends are bound to notice eventually. Joe Biden’s lead over Donald Trump in the polls has already widened to 10%. How could Trump turn that around in the remaining 90 S days?

His only hope is to manufacture an October Surprise: a restaged ‘Tonkin Gulf Incident’ with China, perhaps, or a terrorist ‘threat’ so humongous that it gives him a pretext to declare martial law nationwide. Or maybe he will arrange the premature certification of a Covid-19 vaccine so he can roll it out just before the vote. If it kills a lot of people later on, who cares? He won.

Trump knows that if he loses the election he will spend the rest of his life in court, possibly even in jail. He will do whatever it takes to win. It isn’t over yet.

 



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‘Investigations won’t be stopped due to protests’

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Easter Sunday carnage:

Investigations into the 2019 Easter Sunday terror attacks will not be halted due to protests, demonstrations or Satyagraha campaigns, Minister of Public Security Ananda Wijepala told Parliament yesterday (10), while alleging that investigators had gathered sufficient evidence to establish the involvement of former State Intelligence Service (SIS) Director, retired Major General Suresh Sallay, in a conspiracy linked to the attacks.

Making a special ministerial statement in the House, the Minister said that evidence uncovered during ongoing investigations indicated that Sallay had prior knowledge of the planned attacks and related extremist activities before the coordinated bombings that claimed more than 270 lives and injured hundreds of others, on April 21, 2019.

Wijepala claimed that three weeks before the attacks, Sallay had deployed four Muslim individuals to gather intelligence, including information on the number of worshippers attending mass at a church in Negombo.

According to the Minister, the principal individual among the four had been identified by witnesses to the CID as an ISIS extremist and had subsequently gone missing following the Easter Sunday attacks.

“There is evidence suggesting that Major General Sallay met the informant who had tipped off Army Intelligence regarding the attacks at a hotel in Colombo,” Wijepala said.

The Minister maintained that investigators had uncovered evidence indicating that Sallay had taken steps to prevent the disclosure of information that could have revealed crucial details relating to the attacks and the events leading up to them.

Referring to allegations that Sallay had been subjected to inhumane treatment while in custody, Wijepala rejected such claims, describing them as false and misleading.

He told Parliament that the former intelligence chief had been afforded all facilities and privileges due to a primary suspect under the law, including unrestricted access to legal counsel.

“The Magistrate personally visited Sallay to ascertain his health and wellbeing. At no stage did he complained of any inhumane treatment. Neither has he lodged complaints with any other relevant authority in that regard,” the Minister said.

Wijepala also disclosed that Sallay had thus far declined to provide investigators with the passwords to his laptop computer and mobile phone, a move he described as an attempt to obstruct the investigative process.

“He is acting in a manner that hinders the progress of investigations,” the Minister alleged.

The Public Security Minister maintained that the government remained committed to uncovering the full truth behind the Easter Sunday attacks and bringing all those responsible before the law, irrespective of their status or position.

Emphasising that the investigation would continue without interference, Wijepala said attempts to exert pressure through public protests or Satyagraha campaigns would not influence the course of the inquiry.

“The investigations into the Easter Sunday attacks will not be halted by any protests or Satyagraha,” he said.

By Saman Indrajith

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267,138 Lankan children dropped out of school system between 2018 and 2024

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A total of 267,138 children dropped out of the school system between 2018 and 2024, Prime Minister and Minister of Education Dr. Harini Amarasuriya informed Parliament yesterday (10).

Responding to a question raised by SJB Ratnapura District SJB MP Hesha Withanage, the Prime Minister said that the government did not possess definitive data on school dropouts from 2010 to the early part of 2017.

She explained that the figures for the period from 2018 to 2024 had been derived from annual school census reports using an internationally recognised methodology that takes into account student enrolment figures and dropout rates from Grade One to Grade Ten.

According to the statistics presented to Parliament, 38,839 students dropped out of school in 2018,

while the figure increased to 41,503 in 2019. In 2020, the number stood at 32,540 before declining further to 25,492 in 2021.

However, a sharp increase was recorded in 2022, when 52,596 students were identified as having left the school system. The figure remained high in 2023 at 50,345 before declining to 25,823 in 2024.

The Prime Minister cautioned that the figures did not necessarily indicate that all students classified as dropouts had completely discontinued their education.

She noted that some students may have transferred to schools in other provinces, enrolled in international schools, or migrated overseas with their families while continuing their studies.

Dr. Amarasuriya said that such cases could not be separately identified under the methodology used to compile the statistics and were, therefore, included in the overall dropout figures.

Addressing the causes of school dropouts, the Prime Minister said a range of factors contributed to students leaving the formal education system.

These included personal circumstances, school-related issues, family and economic difficulties, social influences, as well as students opting for alternative educational pathways and training opportunities, she said.

By Saman Indrajith

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PM declares PC polls only under new electoral system

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Prime Minister Harini Amarasuriya told Parliament yesterday that Provincial Council elections would not be conducted under the existing proportional representation system and would instead be held under a new electoral system.

Responding to a question raised by MP Ravi Karunanayake, the Prime Minister said there was no justification for holding elections without ensuring adequate representation for women and youth in Provincial Councils.

She said that the government’s position was to first finalise reforms to the electoral system before proceeding with polls.

The Prime Minister also provided a detailed breakdown of when the terms of Provincial Councils expired, noting that all nine councils had been without elected administrations for several years. According to her, the Sabaragamuwa Provincial Council term ended on September 29, 2017, followed by the Eastern and North Central Councils on September 30 and October 1, 2017 respectively.

The Central and North Western Provincial Councils ended their terms on October 08 and 10, 2018, while the Northern Provincial Council term ended on October 24, 2018. The Southern Provincial Council term expired on April 10, 2019, followed by the Western Provincial Council on April 21, 2019, and the Uva Provincial Council on October 8, 2019.

Amarasuriya said that under Section 10(a) of the Provincial Councils Elections Act No. 2 of 1988, the Election Commission was required to publish a notice of intention to hold an election within one week after the dissolution or expiry of a council, following a direction from the President.

However, she noted that the Election Commission had not issued such notices due to the absence of enabling legal provisions following subsequent amendments.

She further explained that under Section 3A of the Provincial Councils Elections (Amendment) Act No. 17 of 2017, the holding of elections is linked to the completion of a delimitation process. This requires the appointment of a Delimitation Committee by the President to define electorates within administrative districts and submit its report to Parliament, with elections to be held only after parliamentary approval.

The Prime Minister said the delimitation process has not yet been completed, which has prevented the conduct of Provincial Council elections under the revised framework.

Amarasuriya also informed Parliament that a parliamentary select committee had been appointed to examine and make recommendations on whether Provincial Council elections could be conducted under the previous electoral system through further amendments to existing legislation.

The committee, titled the “Select Committee of Parliament to look into and report to Parliament on the matter of selecting the Electoral System under which the Provincial Council Elections should be held and submit its proposals and recommendations in that regard,” comprises MPs Vijitha Herath (Chairman), Nizam Kariapper, Chandana Sooriyarachchi, Darmapriya Wijesinghe, Samanmali Gunasingha, Shanakiyan Rasamanickam, Lakshman Nipuna Arachchi, Mano Ganesan, Ranjith Madduma Bandara, Arun Hemachandra, Sunil Watagala and Muneer Mulaffer.

She said further decisions regarding the holding of Provincial Council elections will be taken based on the recommendations of the parliamentary select committee.

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