Sri Lanka’s new government, elected on a sweeping mandate to end corruption and usher in a “new political culture,” risks losing momentum in its efforts to build national unity, the International Crisis Group (ICG) has warned.

In a report released on Friday, ICG’s Senior Consultant for Sri Lanka, Alan Keenan, said that while President Anura Kumara Dissanayake’s election in September 2024 and the subsequent parliamentary landslide for his National People’s Power (NPP) coalition had raised expectations, the government’s first year has left many communities disappointed.

“The NPP appealed to voters in large part because it lacked experience in office and was distant from the elite-dominated parties that had ruled since 1948,” the report said. Yet, despite pledges to fight impunity, heal ethnic divides and devolve power, little tangible progress has been made, particularly in the Tamil- and Muslim-majority north and east.

Sixteen years after the end of Sri Lanka’s civil war, grievances remain unaddressed: thousands of missing persons remain unaccounted for, mass graves continue to be discovered, and large tracts of private land are still under military occupation. “The virtually all-Sinhala military retains a strong presence throughout the Tamil-speaking north and east, distorting and weakening the local economy,” the ICG noted.

The report pointed to delays in implementing constitutional reforms, holding provincial council elections, and returning occupied land. While the NPP won parliamentary seats in Tamil-majority districts and spoke of “celebrating diversity,” its cabinet contains no Muslims and only two Tamils. Critics say this undercuts its claim to inclusivity.

“The NPP’s politics of national unity may prove in practice to be little different from traditional Sinhala majoritarianism,” Keenan warned, citing remarks by JVP General Secretary Tilvin Silva rejecting Tamil and Muslim nationalism along with Sinhala Buddhist nationalism.

The government did set a different tone during November’s Tamil Heroes Day commemorations, allowing remembrance gatherings to proceed largely unhindered. But subsequent questioning of organisers by police suggested continuity in surveillance and intimidation practices.

On accountability, Foreign Minister Vijitha Herath announced plans for a truth and reconciliation commission. But rights groups remain sceptical, arguing that such mechanisms could be used to deflect demands for criminal accountability for wartime atrocities. Impunity for military abuses has been “complete” since 2009, the report said.

Nonetheless, ICG argued the NPP is better placed than past governments to broaden support for limited accountability, given its own history of suffering state violence in the late 1980s. Recent arrests in emblematic cases of abductions and political killings of Sinhala journalists could create space for wider truth-seeking.

The report also highlighted the discovery of new mass graves, including in Chemmani, Jaffna, where over 230 remains have been uncovered this year. It urged the government to invite international forensic experts to monitor excavations and ensure credible investigations.

International engagement remains critical, the ICG stressed. The UN Human Rights Council’s long-standing monitoring role has contributed to modest post-war improvements, and a new resolution is due for debate this month.

“The NPP’s pledges will ring hollow unless it delivers quickly on land, accountability and inclusion,” Keenan concluded. “Otherwise, Sri Lanka risks losing yet another rare opportunity to escape its painful past and build an inclusive state.”