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Editorial

A clinch-like truce

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Wednesday 25th June, 2025

The world must have heaved a huge sigh of relief on hearing that Israel and Iran had agreed to a ceasefire. An uneasy truce between two belligerent nations, after nearly two weeks of intense fighting, resembles the clinch of two exhausted boxers—noses blooded, teeth broken and jaws shifted. Explosions were ringing out in Iran at the time of writing, despite the ceasefire, with US President Donald Trump asking Israel to stop attacks. One can only hope that such incidents are only blips in a very tense situation. However, the Middle East is still simmering ominously, and it is the duty of the US and other world leaders to ensure that there will be no more provocations and flare-ups.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu obviously did not want the conflict to end even after the US attacks on Iranian nuclear sites over the weekend. He set the goal higher for Israel thereafter, vowing that attacks would not end until a regime change in Iran. But Trump was not interested in making a military intervention to engineer a regime change. He only hoped for one, and therefore Netanyahu was left with no alternative but to agree to a truce. It was also in Iran’s interest for Tehran to agree to stop fighting.

Israel should not have carried out unprovoked attacks on Iran, forcing the latter to retaliate. Overconfident of its air defence systems and fire power, Israel may have thought it would be able to make short work of Iran. But its plan went awry, and Iranian missiles rained down on Tel Aviv and other Israeli cities—something Netanyahu and his generals obviously did not bargain for. The conflict is not without lessons for Iran, which had to fight without direct help from any of its allies.

President Trump has handled the ongoing conflict in a peculiar manner. He did not seek to prevent it. A few days into it, with barrages of missiles crisscrossing the skies above the two warring states, President Trump, in answer to a question from a journalist, said something to the effect that it was futile to make an intervention at that stage. The Israeli leaders and their Iranian counterparts were not ready to consider a truce at that juncture. Trump knew that, and then ordered bunker buster attacks on Iran before calling for a ceasefire. Iran retaliated by firing missiles at US bases in Iraq and Qatar, but it is viewed as an act of proportionality and not escalation.

The US however made some miscalculations. It apparently underestimated Iran’s ability to cause disruptions to the world oil market. Oil prices began to rise, and it was feared that they would reach a record high, giving a shock to the world economy, which is in bad shape. The Iranian Parliament authorised the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, sending shock waves across the world. The US eventually had to swallow its pride and solicit China’s help to prevent Iran from closing that vital sea route and disrupting the global oil supply. It warned that such action would be tantamount to economic suicide for Iran, but that was not the real reason why it was trying to keep the Strait of Hormuz open. If such a course of action had been fraught with the danger of crippling only the Iranian economy, the US would not have issued any warning. Sun Tzu says in The Art of War, “Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake.” The US realised the huge economic cost of the perpetuation of the Middle East conflict. China would have intervened to prevent Iran from closing the vital shipping route, with or without a request from the US, for the bulk of its oil imports from the Middle East moves via the Strait of Hormuz.

The uneasy Israel-Iran ceasefire has caused a slight drop in oil prices, and it will hopefully help keep the Strait of Hormuz open. It is the fervent hope of everyone that the ceasefire will hold firm, and the lessons learnt from what has come to be dubbed “the 12-Day War” in the Middle East will give a major boost to peace efforts in the Middle East.



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Editorial

Self-righteous rhetoric and political circuses

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Wednesday 13th May, 2026

Former President Mahinda Rajapaksa yesterday visited the Commission to Investigate Allegations of Bribery or Corruption (CIABOC), made a statement on the Airbus bribery scandal and returned home. A large number of his supporters flocked to Colombo to pledge solidarity with him. Speaking at a District Coordination Committee meeting at the Matale District Secretariat yesterday, President Anura Kumara Dissanayake stated that nobody was above the law, and anyone could be questioned in an investigation. He claimed that his predecessors had violated the Constitution and committed other offences, with impunity. His reference was obviously to President Rajapaksa making a statement to the CIABOC. By making that claim, President Dissanayake left room for allegations that he has a vested interest in the ongoing Airbus scandal investigation and defends the CIABOC action against Rajapaksa.

Yesterday’s show of strength near the CIABOC was organised by the SLPP. It is an affront to the intelligence of the public for anyone to claim that it was the result of a spontaneous outburst of public anger at an alleged move to frame former President Rajapaksa. Such protests are tantamount to attempts to intimidate the CIABOC. It is the organisers of such events who were responsible for Rajapaksa’s defeat in the 2015 presidential election and his ouster as Prime Minister in 2022, when they acted like the proverbial monkey that killed his sleeping royal master by striking a mosquito with the king’s own sword. They attacked the peaceful Aragalaya protesters at Galle Face, triggering widespread retaliatory attacks. The rest is history.

President Dissanayake yesterday said in Matale that his government had ensured that nobody was above the law and urged the public to bring instances of selective law enforcement, if any, to his attention. Is he unaware that the NPP politicians are more equal than others before the law? Kumara Jayakody was not arrested over the coal procurement scam, which is believed to have caused a loss of more than Rs. 10 billion to the state coffers, and led to a situation where a colossal amount of diesel has to be burnt daily to produce power to meet a generation shortfall at Norochcholai due to the use of low-grade coal imported by a company favoured by the government while Jayakody was the Minister of Energy. Power tariffs have been increased to recover the losses caused by the substandard coal imports. It may be recalled that Keheliya Rambukwella was arrested and prosecuted during the previous government for procuring substandard medicines while he was the Health Minister. That administration initially defended Rambukwella but did not stoop so low as to prevent his arrest and make a cover-up attempt by setting up a presidential commission of inquiry to probe all drug procurement issues in the Health Ministry under successive governments. President Dissanayake has appointed a presidential commission to investigate alleged irregularities in coal procurement since 2009! They must be probed, but the allegations against Jayakody are so serious that they should have been investigated separately on a priority basis.

Ironically, while President Dissanayake was waxing eloquent about his government’s commitment to upholding the rule of law, bashing his predecessors for having violated the Constitution, and claiming that his government had ended the culture of impunity, the Joint Opposition levelled a very serious allegation against him. Former Minister of Justice and Constitutional Affairs Prof. G. L. Peiris, addressing the media in Colombo, said that at a recent May Day rally, President Dissanayake had committed a serious offence by asking the public to get ready to hail the judgement to be delivered in a court case on 25 May. Pointing out that only the judge who heard a case was privy to the judgement therein before it was delivered and could not inform a third party of it or have any discussion thereon, Prof. Peiris said interference with the judiciary was a very serious offence, according to the Constitution, and a person who committed it was liable to one-year imprisonment and the suspension of civic disabilities for five years. He said the Joint Opposition had brought the President’s statement at issue to the attention of the Chief Justice and would take it up with international professional associations.

The public may not have a high opinion of the Opposition, which has quite a few tainted politicians among its ranks, but shouldn’t the JVP-NPP government and their leaders turn the searchlight inwards and put their own house in order before preaching to others about the virtues of good governance?

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Editorial

Enriched uranium and poverty of scruples

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Tuesday 12th May, 2026

US President Donald Trump yesterday rejected Iran’s response to his peace proposal. He wants the conflict ended on his own terms, but Iran is not amenable to that idea. Oil prices have gone up again.

The economic cost of the US-Israeli war on Iran is incalculable, as is obvious. There has been a welcome pause in the conflict, thanks to a fragile ceasefire, but economies across the world are still reeling due to a global energy crisis. CEO of Saudi Aramco Amin Nasser is of the view that the world has lost about one billion barrels of oil over the past two months, and it will take energy markets a considerable time to stabilise even if the oil supplies resume via the Hormuz Strait, the closure of which has curtailed shipping and sent energy prices through the roof. It is not only energy supplies that have suffered due to the US-Israel military campaign; many countries are experiencing crippling fertiliser shortages as well, so much so that the Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN has warned of a possible decline in global agricultural output. Most of all, the human cost of the war has been enormous for Iran.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who considers the war on Iran a dream come true for him, and is trying to turn his country’s military might into political gain, has reportedly said that there is still “work to be done” in Iran. He says Iran has retained many of the capabilities it had at the start of the war. Iran has not given up its enriched uranium or dismantled its nuclear sites, he has said. This claim is at variance with President Trump’s statement that the US military has “beaten and completely decimated” Iran. Netanyahu himself has also bragged that Iran has been militarily weakened as never before.

Netanyahu wants enriched uranium in Iran removed urgently. He says that can be done as part of an agreement to be reached. He has stopped short of mentioning any timeline for the proposed task. Trump has expressed a similar view. An Iranian news outlet linked to the country’s armed forces has denied reports that Tehran agreed to allow its enriched uranium stocks to be removed as part of talks with the United States. Thus, the uranium issue is sure to stand in the way of finding a lasting solution to the West Asia conflict, saving lives and properties and facilitating uninterrupted energy and fertiliser supplies via the Hormuz chokepint.

The US-Israeli military campaign has apparently strengthened Iran’s resolve to acquire nuclear capability. In a world where nuclear weapons are the currency of power, Tehran is not likely to give up its nuclear programme. Any country with nukes is a danger to the world, but only the US has so far carried out nuclear attacks. Not even North Korea has done so. Those who got a head start in the nuclear race decades ago have built huge nuke stockpiles, which are believed to be sufficient to blow up this planet several times over. The new world order based on the law of the jungle has left many countries struggling to safeguard their independence, and some of them are pursuing their nuclear ambitions in keeping with what can be described as the de Gaulle doctrine.

Charles de Gaulle rightly argued that no country without the atomic bomb could properly consider itself independent. He maintained that national sovereignty required an autonomous nuclear force, which he called the force de frappe, which alone, in his opinion, was the ultimate guarantee of political independence and great-power status. So, it is only natural that countries that feel threatened and have the wherewithal are trying either to shore up their nuclear stockpiles or to arm themselves with nukes.

While Trump is devising ways and means of grabbing Iran’s enriched uranium, in a dramatic turn of events, the FBI and other federal agencies have launched investigations into the deaths or disappearances of about 10 top US nuclear and space scientists, according to international media reports. US House Oversight Committee Chairman James Comer has suggested, in an interview with Fox News, that there has been a foreign involvement in these deaths and disappearances. Republican Congressman Eric Burlison has claimed they have “all the hallmarks of a foreign operation” and cited China, Russia and Iran as potential lines of inquiry.

Self-righteous powerful nations’ calls for nuclear non-proliferation to make the world safe ring hollow. If the much-peddled argument that no more countries should acquire nuclear capability to ensure global safety is to gain credibility and wider acceptance, the proponents of it must accelerate nuclear disarmament, decommission their arsenals and lead by example. Most of all, they ought to take cognisance of what US President Dwight D. Eisenhower said in his famous “Cross of Iron speech” on war in 1953, highlighting the opportunity cost of military spending and stressing that resources used on weapons are stolen from the people struggling to meet their basic needs: “Every gun that is made, every warship launched, every rocket fired signifies, in the final sense, a theft from those who hunger and are not fed.” How true!

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Editorial

A potential problem to be managed

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Monday 11th May, 2026

Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) leader Chandrasekar Joseph Vijay has achieved his chief ministerial dream in Tamil Nadu, with the help of some other parties, including the Congress. His meteoric rise to power was possible mostly due to his popularity as a film star, his unrealistic promises and a massive protest vote fuelled by anti-politics. Winning elections is one thing, but living up to people’s expectations by fulfilling campaign promises is quite another. In politics, a beginner’s luck rarely lasts long. If implemented, the freebies promised by Vijay to garner favour with voters, are estimated to account for more than 50% of Tamil Nadu’s tax revenue. Thus, Vijay has his work cut out to prevent his first chief ministerial term from facing the same fate as his first film, which reportedly became a box office bomb.

The paradigm shift in Tamil Nadu politics has sent the Colombo commentariat into overdrive, with divergent assessments of its implications for Sri Lanka and Indo-Lanka relations. Some commentators are of the view that Vijay’s anti-Sri Lanka utterances were mere campaign rhetoric; Vijay himself will forget them with the passage of time, and even if he wants to pursue his pledges, especially the one to retrieve Katchatheevu, there will be nothing he cannot do, as New Delhi considers the issue long settled. The proponents of this argument have apparently ignored the fact that the Indian Centre is swayed by Tamil Nadu, and New Delhi has even resorted to extreme measures to appease the Tamil Nadu politicians and further its own interests at the expense of Sri Lanka. India trained, armed and funded pro-Eelam terror groups, and rammed the Indo-Lanka Accord down President J. R. Jayewardene’s throat in 1987, paving the way of devolution. India was hoist with its own petard, with the LTTE turning against it, a few years later, and the situation changed.

The current world order is anything but “rules based”. International pacts, accords, covenants, treaties, charters, etc., become worthless when the powerful signatories thereto feel like violating them. The US has violated the UN Charter, perhaps for the umpteenth time, by abducting President of Venezuela Nicolás Maduro and his wife. It has also carried out unprovoked air strikes on Iran, killing its Spiritual Leader and thousands of civilians besides destroying assets worth billions, if not trillions, of dollars.

It has been alleged that at the height of the 2022 uprising here, following the forced resignation of President Gotabaya Rajapaksa, Indian High Commissioner Gopal Baglay pressured Speaker Mahinda Yapa Abeywardene to take over the presidency in violation of the Constitution. Abeywardene told Parliament subsequently that the goal of those who tried to force him to appoint himself the Acting President was to plunge this country into anarchy. Baglay allegedly acted in violation of the Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations, which requires diplomats to refrain from interfering with the internal affairs or politics of the host countries. Curiously, this very serious allegation remains unprobed though the grandees of the JVP-NPP government and the SJB-led Opposition wrap themselves in the flag and often declare their commitment to protecting the national interest.

The possibility of the new Tamil Nadu administration escalating the issue of illegal fishing in Sri Lankan waters to such an extent that New Delhi may feel compelled to intervene more assertively, if not aggressively, cannot be ruled out. In 2013, the then Minister of Fisheries and Aquatic Resources Development Dr. Rajitha Senaratne disclosed that certain Tamil Nadu politicians owned trawlers and rented them out on the strict condition that they be used for poaching in Sri Lankan waters. These troublemakers are likely to step up their illegal fishing operations to belittle Sri Lanka’s sovereignty and bring New Delhi and Colombo on a collision course.

Responses to vital bilateral issues should not be grounded solely in suspicions and perceptions if they are to be workable. Tamil Nadu politicians’ hostility towards Sri Lanka is a problem to be managed diplomatically. Foreign relations are layered and dynamic, and diplomacy requires calibrated responses to contentious issues. It is, however, prudent to be cautious.

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