Features

Will there be an October Surprise to sway the 2024 election?

Published

2 years ago

2024/10/6

by Vijaya Chandrasoma

An October Surprise is defined as “an unexpected political event or revelation in the month before a presidential election, especially one that seems intended to influence the outcome”. Since 1980, there have been a few “October Surprises” which may have changed the history of the nation.

The phrase originated in 1980, during the presidential election season of that year. Militants in Iran had seized 66 American citizens from the US Embassy in 1979, and held 52 of them hostage for over a year. Jimmy Carter was the incumbent president at the time. His failure to have the hostages released was the main reason he was losing in the polls to Ronald Reagan. The hostage crisis occurred after the Iran’s Islamic revolution and the overthrow of the Pahlavi dynasty. Carter had planned to negotiate a last-minute release of the hostages which would win him the election. It never happened.

We would like to send our best wishes to the 39^th President of the United States, Jimmy Carter, who celebrated his 100^th birthday on Tuesday, October 1. One of the finest presidents and human beings in history, he was cheated of a well-deserved second term by the doubtful political machinations of a third-rate movie star, who proved to be a fourth-rate president. Ronald Reagan began the process of dismantling a thriving middle class by cutting taxes on corporations and the super-wealthy, with his now debunked trickle-down policies of “Reagonomics”.

Reagan’s campaign was suspected to have conspired with the Iranians not to release the hostages till after the election was finalized. This gambit, though never proved, was referred to as the October Surprise, which now refers to any late-breaking news that upends the results of a presidential election.

President Carter continues to personify the highest standards of excellence for compassionate, productive, Christian leadership to this very day. We wish him all good health and happiness in the future.

There have been a few other mostly mild surprises. George H.W. Bush was running behind Clinton in the polls in 1992. The news that broke in October 1992, that his former defense secretary, Caspar Weinberger, was indicted in the Iran-Contra scandal, may have cost him a second term.

The Iran-Contra affair was a political scandal in Reagan’s administration between 1981 and 1986 when senior officials illegally and secretly facilitated the sale of arms to Iran, which was subject to an embargo. The proceeds from the sale were to be used to fund the Contras, an anti-Sandinista rebel group in Nicaragua.

News broke in October 2000 that Bush junior had been arrested for DUI (Driving Under the Influence of Alcohol) in 1976, but his rival, Vice-President Al Gore refused to make an issue of this misdemeanor. In any event, the Republican Supreme Court awarded Bush a controversial election.

In October 2016, there were two doozies. On October 7, 2016, one month before the election, the Washington Post published a video and article about then-presidential candidate Donald Trump, bragging to NBC television host Billy Bush about his various and lewd experiences assaulting women. The “Access Hollywood” tape was so named because Trump and Bush were on their way to film an episode of an NBC television show of that title.

Trump was explicitly and disgustingly describing his modus operandi of seducing married women. He would start kissing them, saying “I don’t even wait. And when you’re a star, they let you do it. You can do anything….Grab them by their genitals” (though he used a more vulgar feline term). The Hillary Clinton camp was elated at this breaking news, certain that it would a clinch an election in which she was already showing a handsome lead in the polls.

Clinton got her October Surprise, when FBI Director James Comey made a statement, 11 days before the election, that the Bureau was investigating into the 30,000 deleted emails from Hillary’s personal server, a technical infringement, when she was Secretary of State in the Obama administration. Comey violated election laws, which prohibit government officials from releasing any information concerning presidential candidates 60 days before the election.

It was especially galling because Comey retracted his statement, that the Bureau had found no illegality in Hillary’s emails, two days before the election. It was too late. Voters had already cast their early ballots, or decided to vote against Hillary. Trump made political capital out of Comey’s announcements, in an effort to minimize his sexual indiscretions. Hillary lost the election. The rest, as they say, is history. History which has completely changed the landscape of US politics. For the execrable worse.

A surprise seems to be brewing with the East Coast dockworkers’ first large-scale strike in nearly 50 years, demanding huge pay raises, checks on automation and employment contracts for six years

The dispute does not involve the White House. The International Longshoremen’s Association Union, representing 45,000 port workers, has been negotiating with the United States Maritime Alliance employer group for a new six-year contract. Negotiations are ongoing, but no agreement has been reached as the strike reaches its fourth day. There is little doubt that such a strike, even for a few days, will cause major supply chain disruptions. We can only hope that the strike is settled before it causes havoc with the economy, for which Trump will blame the Biden administration.

Hurricane Helene has devastated parts of Georgia and North Carolina, with entire communities being destroyed. The death toll has risen to over 210, with hundreds still missing, many caught in historic flooding throughout the Southeastern states. Power connections are being restored, but 1.3 million people are still without power from Florida to Georgia.

President Biden immediately called Georgia Governor, Brian Kemp, and offered “whatever he needs”. He ordered the Defense Department to deploy up to 1,000 active-duty soldiers to reinforce North Carolina’s National Guard. He also approved 100% Federal costs of debris removal, first responders, search and rescue operations, shelters, mass feeding and other emergency measures.

President Biden visited North Carolina, while Vice-President Harris travelled to neighboring Georgia, both on Wednesday.

Amidst bipartisan praise for the immediate response from the Biden administration, Trump predictably politicized the disaster. He lied that President Biden and VP Harris “are universally being given poor grades for the way they are handling the Hurricane, especially in North Carolina”. A downright lie.

The Biden administration has received bipartisan praise from political leaders in all the affected states. Every governor in the Southeastern states, Republican and Democratic, has praised the administration’s prompt response, naming Biden in particular. Republican Governor of South Carolina, Henry McMaster said at a press conference that federal assistance had “been superb”. The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the Red Cross are using all their resources to help the victims of the worst Hurricane to hit the US since Hurricane Katrina in 2005.

In view of the predicted increase in natural disasters caused by climate change, this hurricane was hardly a surprise. But it may have deleterious effects on the November election, as many of the polling booths in North Carolina have been washed away, and voters may not be able to cast their ballots for a variety of reasons.

The Vice-Presidential Debate between VP candidates Tim Walz and JD Vance on Tuesday, October 2 provided no surprises at all.

Perhaps The Atlantic described it best as “a vision of what American politics could be without the distorting gravitational field generated by Donald Trump”.

It was an unexpectedly civil event, with both candidates generally showing respect for each other, unlike the one-sided Presidential brawl between the heavyweights in September.

Vance kept the Republican flag flying with the usual number of lies about abortion and cats and dogs in Springfield. There were a few really audacious lies, when he claimed that “Trump saved Obamacare”, President Obama’s Affordable Care Plan, which Trump had been trying to repeal on over 60 separate occasions. Vance also did not answer the direct question – Who won the 2020 election? which he ignored. More ominously, Vance kept silent when asked if he would have, had he been Donald Trump’s Vice-President in 2020, overturned the Electoral College certification for the presidency. Silence signifies assent, so Vance silently admitted that he would have violated his oath to the constitution.

He also made the preposterous statement that “Trump had handed over power peacefully on January 20, 2021, just as we had done for 250 years” (which is true only if you have amnesia about the violent coup on January 6). Actually, he was unable to answer many of these questions, as he was performing for an audience of one.

Vance perhaps won the debate on a more polished performance of lying about his lies with an admirably straight face. Walz prevailed on substance, though he at times behaved like the knucklehead he himself admitted he was. So we can call it a draw, one which will make no impact on a very close election.

There have been a few mild surprises. Donald Trump lives in an alternative Teflon universe, in which no criminal or reprehensible acts he commits seem to have any effect on his Republican cult. Their devotion to a convicted felon remains unshaken in the face of irrefutable evidence of wrongdoing, that would have tanked the reputation and career of any other politician.

Special Counsel Jack Smith made public a 165-page filing which includes “mountains of new evidence” of Donald Trump’s alleged efforts to subvert the constitutional transfer of power after the 2020 presidential election. Smith maintains these new “mountains of evidence” are incriminatingly high enough to hurdle over even the high bar of immunity that the Supreme Court had provided for Trump in a recent highly partisan ruling.

The new brief argued that Trump’s conduct was private in nature; he was acting in the capacity of a candidate for the presidency and not as the incumbent, defeated (lame duck) president. He was therefore not covered by immunity. Smith’s brief argues that “Trump’s scheme to remain in power for a second term was a private criminal effort”, and that “Trump tried to overturn the election in his capacity as a candidate, not as the incumbent president”.

Some amazing revelations in the brief displayed the ultimate cruelty of Donald Trump. While he was doing nothing at the White House for 187 minutes when his mob was rioting at the Capitol, he was told that his Vice-President, Mike Pence’s life was in danger. His response: “So what!”. He is also recorded as having told his wife, Melania, daughter, Ivanka and son-in-law, Jared Kushner, “It doesn’t matter if you won or lost the election. You still have to fight like hell!”

The only purpose of this new brief is that it will provide, perhaps against election laws, fresh evidence of Trump’s guilt to the public. News that will probably be met with indifference and apathy. Trump’s camp will, of course, call this another episode in the longest witch hunt in history.

This will not count as even a mild surprise.

So far, no other major October Surprise has appeared on the horizon, though these are early days. Let’s hope it stays that way, but my money is on an increasingly desperate Trump trying some extraordinary stunt of contrived violence, maybe against himself again, but more likely, an assault on a high-ranking Democrat. Violence is the only language Trump and his cult speak fluently.

This year’s October Surprise is the same surprise that has been America’s nightmare since November, 2021. How a twice impeached, adjudicated rapist and fraud, a convicted felon awaiting sentence on 34 felonies, and three more impending trials on serious crimes (obstruction of justice, espionage, sedition) against him, is not only out of prison, but amazingly is a lively contender for another term at the Oval Office.

Maybe the new evidence against Trump, and the unhinged behavior he displays day after day, will finally persuade independents and moderate Republicans to see the light and give Vice-President Harris a landslide in November that even Trump will not be able to deny.

We can only hope that Americans will finally see the threat that Trump provides to Democracy, which his Party has clearly outlined in “Project 2025 – Mandate for Leadership. The Conservative Promise”. The document, created by the radical-red Heritage Foundation is a 925-page policy “wish list” for the next Republican president, “a proposal that would expand presidential power and impose an ultra-conservative social vision”.

A manifesto, much like Hitler’s Mein Kampf (My Struggle), which outlines the political ideology and future plans for the United States, based on Hitler’s Utopia of a nation of Aryan, white, blonde, blue-eyed Germans, after Trump is inaugurated as the 47^th and last president in January 2025. With one difference. The vermin targeted for the “Final Solution” in Hitler’s Germany were the Jews. The vermin targeted for elimination – in concentration camps, by mass deportations – are the brown skinned-immigrants, legal and illegal, who are poisoning the blood of Trump’s Utopia of a conservative, white, European, Christian America.

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Features

The Easter investigation must not become ethno-religious politics

Published

5 hours ago

2026/04/7

Sahan Weerasooriya

Zahran and other bombers

Representatives of almost all the main opposition parties were in attendance at the recent book launch by Pivithuru Hela Urumaya leader Udaya Gammanpila. The book written by the PHU leader was his analysis of the Easter bombing of April 2019 that led to the mass killing of 279 persons, caused injuries to more than 500 others and caused panic and shock in the entire country. The Easter bombing was inexplicable for a number of reasons. First, it was perpetrated by suicide bombers who were Sri Lankan Muslims, a community not known for this practice. They targeted Christian churches in particular, which led to the largest number of casualties. The bombing of Sri Lankan Christian churches by Sri Lankan Muslims was also inexplicable in a country that had no history of any serious violence between the two religions.

There were two further inexplicable features of the bombing. The six suicide bombings took place almost simultaneously in different parts of the country. The logistical complexity of this operation exceeded any previously seen in Sri Lanka. Even during the three decade long civil war that pitted the Sri Lankan military against the LTTE, which had earned international notoriety for suicide attacks, Sri Lanka had rarely witnessed such a synchronised operation. The country’s former Attorney General, Dappula de Livera, who investigated the bombing at the time it took place, later stated, upon retirement, that there was a “grand conspiracy” behind the bombings. That phrase has remained central to public debate because it suggested that the visible perpetrators may not have been the only planners behind the attack.

The other inexplicable factor was that intelligence services based in India repeatedly warned their Sri Lankan counterparts that the bombings would take place and even gave specific targets. Later investigations confirmed that warnings were transmitted days before the attacks and repeated again shortly before the explosions, yet they were not acted upon. It was these several inexplicable factors that gave rise to the surmise of a mastermind behind the students and religious fanatics led by the extremist preacher Zahran Hashim from the east of the country, who also blew himself up in the attacks. Even at the time of the bombing there was doubt that such a complex and synchronised operation could have been planned and executed by the motley band who comprised the suicide bombers.

Determined Attempt

The book by PHU leader Gammanpila is a determined attempt to make explicable the inexplicable by marshalling logic and evidence that this complex and synchronised operation was planned and executed by Zahran himself. This is a possible line of argumentation in a democratic society. Competing interpretations of public tragedies are part of political discourse. However, the timing of the intervention makes it politically more significant. The launch of the PHU leader’s book comes at a critical time when the protracted investigation into the Easter bombing appears to be moving forward under the present government.

The performance of the three previous governments at investigating the bombing was desultory at best. The Supreme Court held former President Maithripala Sirisena and several senior officials responsible for failing to act on prior intelligence and ordered compensation to victims. This judicial finding gave legal recognition to what victims had long maintained, that there was a grave dereliction of duty at the highest levels of the state. In recent weeks the investigation has taken a dramatic turn with the arrest and court production of former State Intelligence Service chief Suresh Sallay on allegations linked directly to the attacks. Whether these allegations are ultimately proven or disproven, they indicate that the present phase of the investigation is moving beyond negligence into possible complicity.

This is why the present moment requires political sobriety. There is a danger that the line of political division regarding the investigation into the Easter bombing can take on an ethnic complexion. The insistence that the suicide bombers alone were the planners and executors of the dastardly crime makes the focus invariably one of Muslim extremism, as the suicide bombers were all Muslims. This may unintentionally narrow public attention away from the unanswered questions regarding intelligence failures, possible political manipulation, and the allegations of a broader conspiracy that remain under active investigation. The minority political parties representing ethnic and religious minorities appear to have realised this danger. Their absence from the book launch was politically significant. It suggests an unwillingness to be drawn into a narrative that could once again stigmatise an entire community for the crimes of a handful of extremists and their possible handlers.

Another Tragedy

It would be another tragedy comparable in political consequence to the havoc wreaked by the Easter bombing if moderate mainstream political parties, such as the SJB to which the Leader of the Opposition belongs, were to subscribe to positions merely to score political points against the present government. They need to guard against the promotion of anti-minority sentiment and the fuelling of majority prejudice against ethnic and religious minorities. Indeed, opposition leader Sajith Premadasa in his Easter message said that justice for the victims of the 2019 Sri Lanka Easter Sunday attacks remains a fundamental responsibility of the state and noted that seven years on, both past and present governments have failed to deliver accountability. He added that building a society grounded in trust and peace, uniting all ethnicities, religions and communities, is vital to ensure such tragedies do not occur again.

Sri Lanka’s post war history offers too many examples of how unresolved security crises become vehicles for majoritarian mobilisation. The Easter tragedy itself was followed by waves of anti-Muslim suspicion and violence in some parts of the country. Responsible political leadership should seek to prevent any return to that atmosphere. There are many other legitimate issues on which the moderate and mainstream opposition parties can take the government to task. These include the lack of decisive action against government members accused of corruption, the passing of the entire burden of rising fuel prices on consumers instead of the government sharing the burden, and the failure to hold provincial council elections within the promised timeframe. These are issues that touch the daily lives of citizens and the health of democratic governance. They offer the opposition ample ground on which to build credibility as a government in waiting.

The search for truth and justice over the Easter bombing needs to continue until all those responsible are identified, whether they were direct perpetrators, negligent officials, or political actors who may have exploited the tragedy. This is what the victim families want and the country needs. But this search must not be turned into a partisan and religiously divisive matter such as by claiming that there are more potential suicide bombers lurking in the country who had been followers of Zaharan. If it is, Sri Lanka risks replacing one national tragedy with another. coming together to discredit the ongoing investigations into the Easter bombing of 2019 is an unacceptable use of ethno-religious nationalism to politically challenge the government. The opposition needs to find legitimate issues on which to challenge the government if they are to gain the respect and support of the general public and not their opprobrium.

by Jehan Perera

Features

China’s new duty-free regime for Africa: Implications for Global Trade and Sri Lanka

Published

5 hours ago

2026/04/7

Sahan Weerasooriya

Image courtesy The Global Times

* The new duty-free regime for Africa, announced by Chinese President Xi Jinping in February, is the most generous unilateral nonreciprocal trade concession offered by any country to developing countries since the beginning of the modern rule based international trading system.

* Yet, it is a clear violation of the cornerstone of the multilateral trade law, the Most-Favoured-Nation (MFN) principle.

* Hence, its implications on developing countries, without duty-free access to China, will be extremely negative. Sri Lanka is one of the few developing countries without duty-free access to China.

On 14 February, 2026, Chinese President Xi Jinping announced that China will grant zero-tariff treatment to 53 African nations, effective 01 May, 2026. Under this new unilateral policy initiative, China would eliminate all import tariffs on all goods imported from all the countries in Africa, except Eswatini. China already enforces a zero-tariff policy for 33 Least Developed Countries (LDCs) in Africa. Now this policy would be extended to non LDCs as well. This policy initiative clearly aims at reducing the continuously expanding trade deficit between China and Africa. In 2024, China’s trade surplus against Africa was recorded at US $ 61 billion.

This trade initiative, a precious gift amidst ongoing global trade tensions, is the most generous unilateral nonreciprocal trade concession given by any country to developing countries, since the beginning of the modern rule based international trading system.

Though this landmark announcement has far-reaching implications on global trade, as much as President Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs, it was almost overlooked by the global media.

Implications for Global Trade

This Chinese policy initiative, though very generous, is a clear violation of the Most-Favoured-Nation (MFN) principle and the “Enabling Clause” of the International Trade Law. The MFN principle is the cornerstone of the multilateral trading system under the World Trade Organisation (WTO) and is enshrined in Article I of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT). It mandates that any trade advantage, privilege, or immunity granted by a WTO member to any country must be extended immediately and unconditionally to all other WTO members. Though, the GATT “Enabling Clause” allows developed nations to offer non-reciprocal preferential treatment (lower tariffs) to developing countries without extending them to all WTO members, this has to be done in a non-discriminatory manner. By extending tariff concessions only to developing countries in Africa, China has also breached this requirement.

This deliberate violation of the MFN principle by China occurs less than 12 months after the announcement of “Liberation Day” tariffs by President Trump, which breached Article I (MFN) and Article II (bound rates) of the GATT. However, it is important to underline that the objectives of the actions by the two Presidents are poles apart; the US objective was to limit imports from all its trading partners, and China’s objective is to increase imports from African countries.

Though the importance of the MFN principle of the WTO law had eroded over the years due to the proliferation of preferential trade agreements and unilateral preferential arrangements, the WTO members almost always obtained WTO waivers, whenever they breached the MFN principle. Now the leaders of the main trading powers have decided to violate the core principles of the multilateral trading system so brazenly, the impact of their decisions on the international trading system will be irrevocable.

Implications for Sri Lanka

China’s unilateral decision to provide zero-tariff treatment to African countries will have a strong adverse impact on Sri Lanka. Currently, all Asian countries, other than India and Sri Lanka, have duty-free access, for most of their exports, into the Chinese market through bilateral or regional trade agreements, or the LDC preferences. Though Sri Lanka, India and China are members of the Asia Pacific Trade Agreement (APTA), preferential margins extended by China under APTA to India and Sri Lanka are limited.

The value of China’s imports from Sri Lanka had declined from US$ 650 million in 2021 to US$ 433 million by 2025. However, China’s exports to Sri Lanka increased significantly during the period, from US$ 5,252 million to US$ 5,753 by 2025. This has resulted in a trade deficit of US$ 5,320 million. Sri Lanka’s exports to China may decline further from next month when African nations with duty-free access start to expand their market share.

Let me illustrate the challenges Sri Lanka will face in the Chinese market with one example. Tea (HS0902) is Sri Lanka’s third largest export to China, after garments and gems. Sri Lanka is the largest exporter of tea to China, followed by India, Kenya and Viet Nam. During the last five years the value of China’s imports of tea from Sri Lanka had declined significantly, from US$76 million in 2021 to US$ 57 million by 2025. Meanwhile, imports from our main competitors had increased substantially. Most importantly, imports from Kenya increased from US$ 7.9 million in 2021 to US$ 15 million in 2025. For tea, the existing tariff in China for Sri Lanka is 7.5% and for Kenya is 15%. From next month the tariff for Kenya will be reduced to 0%. What will be its impact on Sri Lanka exports? That was perhaps explained by a former Ambassador to Africa, when he urged Sri Lankan exporters to “leverage duty free access from Kenya” to expand their exports to China!

(The writer is a retired public servant and a former Chairman of WTO Committee on Trade and Development. He can be reached at senadhiragomi@gmail.com)

by Gomi Senadhira

Features

Daughter in the spotlight …

Published

5 hours ago

2026/04/7

Sahan Weerasooriya

Jeevarani Kurukulasuriya was a famous actress and her name still rings a bell with many. And now in the spotlight is her daughter Senani Wijesena – not as an actress but as a singer – and she has been singing, since the age of five!

The plus factor is that Senani, now based in Australia, is also a songwriter, plays keyboards and piano, dancer, and has filmed and edited some of her own music videos.

Says Senani: “I write the lyrics, melody and music and work with professional musicians who do the needful on my creations.”

Her latest album, ‘Music of the Mirror’, is made up of 16 songs, and her first Sinhala song, called ‘Nidahase’, is scheduled for release this month (April) in Colombo, along with a music video.

‘Nidahase’,

says Senani, is a song about Freedom … of life, movement, love and spirit. Freedom to be your authentic self, express yourself freely and Freedom from any restrictions.

In fact, ‘Nidahase’ is the Sinhala translated version of her English song ‘Free’ which made Senani a celebrity as the song was nominated for a Hollywood Music in Media Award in the RnB /Soul category and reached the Top 20 on the UK Music weekly dance charts, as well as No. 1 on the Yes Home grown Top 15, on Yes FM, for six weeks straight.

Senani went on to say that ‘Nidahase’ has been remixed to include a Sri Lankan touch, using Kandyan drums and the Thammattama drum, with extra music production by local music producer Dilshan L. Silva, and Australia-based Emmy Award winning Producer and Engineer Sean Carey … with Senani also in the scene.

The song was written (lyrics and melody) and produced by Senani and it features Australian musicians, while the music video was produced by Sri Lanka’s Sandesh Bandara and filmed in Sri Lanka.

First Sinhala song scheduled for release this month … in Colombo

Senani’s music is mostly Soul, Funk and RNB – also Fusion, using ethnic sounds such as the tabla, sitar, and sarod – as well as Jazz influenced.

“I also have Alternative Music songs with a rock edge, such as ‘New Day’, and upcoming releases ‘Fly High’ and ‘Whisper’“, says Senani, adding that she has also recorded in other languages, such as Hindi and Spanish.

“As much of my fan base are Sri Lankans, who have asked me to release a song in the Sinhala language, I decided to create and release ‘Nidahase’ and I plan to release other original Sinhala songs in the future.

Senani has a band in Australia and has appeared at festivals in Australia, on radio and TV in Australia, and Sri Lanka.

She trained as a vocalist, through Sydney-based Singing Schools, as well as private tuition, and she has 5th Grade piano music qualifications.

And this makes interesting reading:

“I graduated from the University of Newcastle in Australia with a Bachelor of Medicine and I work part time as a doctor (GP) and an Integrative Medicine practitioner, with a focus on nutrition, and spend the rest of the time dedicated to my music career.”

Senani hails from an illustrious family. In addition to her mum, Jeevarani Kurukulasuriya, who made over 40 films, including starring in the first colour movie ‘Ranmuthu Duwa’, her dad is Dr Lanka Wijesena (retired GP) and she has two sisters – all musical; one is a doctor, while the other is a dietitian/ psychotherapist.