Features
May Day Politics: A Pregame to Presidential Election
by Rajan Philips
May Day this week lived up to expectations as pregame to the presidential election that is expected before the end of October. Political parties strutted their wares and prospective candidates made their pitches. Little was said that was not already known but what was said by each contender does give clues to the direction that each one’s campaign would likely take. There was one constant refrain in the editorials and commentaries before and after May Day: that the Day was all about propaganda for the presidential election, and nothing about the rights of the working people, or their plights – from unemployment to underemployment to low wages, regressive taxes and the crippling cost of living.
Workers Charter
There was even nostalgic harking back in some commentaries to the days of the Old Left when workers’ demands were privileged over everything else in the May Day slogans and platform resolutions. Not without some nostalgia I have juxtaposed above a picture of the JVP/NPP’s colourful May Day rally this year and a black and white photo of Bala Tampoe standing tall under a cloudy sky and speaking in front of an exclusively workers’ gathering in a different era. More than Nostalgia, Bala Tampoe, whom the LSSP’s Lloyd de Silva once described as the “lone ranger in the mass movement,” championed the adoption of a Workers Charter after the trade union movement was hijacked by the UNP after 1977 and the rights of workers were wiped out by President Jayewardene in 1980.
During the early years of the (Chandrika) Kumaratunga presidency, Mahinda Rajapaksa, as Minister of Labour worked closely with Bala Tampoe to draft a Workers Charter for adoption by parliament. A National Workers Charter was in fact promulgated on September 2, 1995, but was apparently scuttled by senior ministers in the cabinet. Some ten years later, in 2014, participating in a panel discussion on National Policy on Wages organized by the Sri Lanka Economic Association, Bala Tampoe waxed eloquent that protecting the fundamental human rights of workers is as important as fighting for higher wages. He went on to assert that “the real issue for workers in countries like Sri Lanka, India, Bangladesh and a greater part of Asia … is not labour rights, not worker rights, but their rights as humans.”
From what I have seen in the May Day news stories this year, there was no assertion or declaration about workers’ rights as human rights and as wage rights at this year’s May Day. Anura Kumara Dissanayake (AKD), the bearer of the red banner today, was reportedly more focused on declaring that “organizational power and law abiding society” are needed to develop the country, and asserting that “only the NPP has the best organizational power and discipline to develop this country.” The JVP/NPP also put on display a devolution of May Day observances by organizing same day rallies in Anuradhapura, Colombo, Jaffna and Matara. AKD addressed two of them, first in Matara and then in Colombo. So did Sajith Premadasa and Ranil Wickremesinghe, but the spectacles were different.
Optimism or Cockiness
Understandably Mr. Dissanayake projected optimism, but to the point of bordering on cockiness. He took to mocking those who had mocked at the JVP’s chances: “Our enemies mocked us saying that converting three percent of popularity into 51 percent would be a miracle. That miracle has been achieved. Mustering the trust of more than 51 percent of electors for the NPP no longer is a magic or miracle. It has become a ground reality.” And further, “This is the last May Day we mark under these rulers who ruined this nation. The next May Day will be held under an NPP government. Victory is assured for our party. We must work harder for the next three months to realize our goal for our own government.”
Shades of “NM for PM,” the LSSP slogan in March 1960, the last time a Left Party campaigned in an election with the confidence, if not conviction, of forming the next government. At an election meeting in Borella, Bala Tampoe was cocky enough to introduce NM as PM and himself as Labour Minister! The difference this time is that what then were the two main parties, the SLFP and the UNP, have all but disappeared from the face of Sri Lankan politics now. The May Day did not provide any clue or carry any prospect of the old political forces channelling themselves into viable new electoral alliances. Let us start at the most ridiculous end of the spectrum.
The already emaciated SLFP has split into a legitimate and an illegitimate factions. The latter naturally under Maithripala Sirisena. And Sirisena has paired with grasshopping Wijeyadasa Rajapakshe and made the May Day announcement that Rajapakshe would be the ‘SLFP’ candidate at the presidential election. One would have thought 2024 would be the first presidential election this century that will not have a Rajapaksa on the ballot. But there could be one but with an odd spelling bee difference. The bigger point is that Mr. Rajapakshe is a member of the SLPP and President Wickremesinghe’s Minister of Justice. How can anyone blame Anura Kumara Dissanayake when he mocks at the likes of Sirisena and Rajapakshe who are emblematic of the decaying political class.
A real Rajapaksa may not be on the ballot for the presidential election, but the name bearers were there to mark May Day for the family. No Workers Charter though, but only the family elder statesman Mahinda Rajapaksa’s griping about Sajith Premadasa and Anura Kumara Dissanayake not stepping up to respond to the real ‘May Day’ call of Gota and take over the country’s leadership. “Both refused,” Mahinda Rajapaksa said, “fearing their future in politics.” He had appreciation for President Ranil Wickremesinghe, who “while the SJB and NPP backed away … took (over) the leadership with the support of the SLPP.” MR did not quite announce that SLPP would be co-sponsoring, along with whomever else, Ranil Wickremesinghe’s candidacy, but the two are too joined at the hip to be severed now.
Two-way v. Three-way
While Ranil Wickremesinghe is the preferred common candidate to a majority of MPs in the current parliament, many of them would not really like to be seen with him in public. Not the SLPP, even though they are ready to sponsor Mr. Wickremesinghe’s nomination. Not the SJB MPs, even though great efforts were made by UNP mandarins to put on a show of at least some SJB MPs returning to the old uncle-nephew family. Not one showed up. The legitimate faction of the SLFP might back him too. But they are keeping their public distance for now. Only the CWC was ready to be politically seen with Mr. Wickremesinghe, and the latter returned the favour by not only attending the CWC rally at Kottagala, but also giving a pay hike to plantation workers. The stock market reportedly took a tumble and the Planters are up in arms against the hike. But they would still vote for Ranil.
For the rest of the economy, it is IMF business as usual. That is the gist of the President’s May Day message at Maligawatte, in Colombo. That was all his message, plus the refrain urging “the JVP-led NPP, the SJB and other political parties not to undermine ongoing economic recovery efforts.” He did not quite call for the continuation of the current recovery efforts even under a new government led by the JVP/NPP or the SJB. Nor did he mention his candidacy or even the presidential election. The President is keeping his cards closed, leaving it to AKD to declare 51% victory and for Sajith Premadasa to make a laundry list of promises. The young Premadasa did just that even as his supporters hit the print media calling for a return of ‘Premadasism.’ A new addition to political vocabulary.
The young Premadasa was expansive in his May Day promises: “full implementation of the 13th Amendment to the Constitution, a fresh probe on the Easter Sunday bomb attacks, creating smart farmers and fishermen, creating a conducive environment for investors, creating employment opportunities and creating Silicon Valley type IT zones in every district.” And so on. Prior to May Day he reportedly volunteered to the visiting pre-election delegation from the Chinese Communist Party, his readiness to play a mediator role between India and China. It usually takes a small country leader to project global ambitions.
But Mr. Premadasa and his supporters may find reason for their own cockiness, to counter that of AKD and the JVP/NPP, in the latest Institute for Health Policy Poll that edges the SJB support over JVP/NPP (38% to 35%) apparently for the first time since these polls started political forecasting. There are known and unknown methodological issues with this poll, but what has been sauce for the JVP/NPP could be sauce for the SJB. The real political outcome of this poll, however, could be the reality of Mr. Premadasa being a candidate for the presidential election without giving way to Ranil Wickremesinghe. A Premadasa withdrawal would be the most desired scenario for the Wickremesinghe camp. But why would Sajith Premadasa withdraw when he is ahead of everyone else according to the only poll in town?
In a straight one to one contest between Anura Kumara Dissanayake and Either Ranil Wickremesinghe or Sajith Premadasa, Mr. Dissanayake would really need a miracle to get past the 50% mark. But anything is possible in a three-cornered contest, and in the most likely outcome there may not be a winner after the first count. The second count is really a copout because if there are not enough second preference votes to make a difference, as it likely would be in this election, the candidate with the highest number of votes in the first count would end up becoming president. The country would end up having a president with less than 40% of the original vote.
In other presidential polities, if there is no clear winner passing the 50% threshold in the first election, a new second election is held between the first two candidates with the largest number of votes from the first election. The eventual winner will have the support of more than half the people voting. Not so in Sri Lanka. That could be another reason for getting rid of this expensive and cumbersome process of having a direct election to elect a single person to the summit of power. Anura Kumara Dissanayake is the only potential candidate who is committed to getting rid of direct election through a newly elected parliament in 2025. And if he were to accomplish that, he could be doing it as a 40%-vote winner in the presidential election. That would also be poetic justice.
Features
Trump’s tariffs, AKD’s gazette and Sri Lanka’s diplomatic slumber
“We are rather respectable in Colombo. We go to bed fairly early, and we remain there till morning. “
According to Sri Lanka’s diplomatic folklore, the late S.W. R. D. Bandaranaike uttered these words while explaining the reasons for Sri Lanka’s abstention on the UN resolution condemning the Soviet invasion of Hungary. Apparently, SWRD’s foreign ministry officials were asleep at home when the diplomatic cable seeking instructions was received from New York. In those days, there were no cell phones, Internet, or even fax or telex machines. The diplomatic cables were sent through post offices. Decoding them was a slow and time-consuming process. Thus, the government could not provide appropriate instructions to our mission in New York in time, and the Sri Lankan delegation abstained on that sensitive UN vote.
Sri Lanka’s Absence from Section 301 Consultations
But then, how does one explain Sri Lanka’s absence from the crucial bilateral consultation held in Washington by the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) during March-April on “Forced Labour” under the Section 301 of the US Trade Act of 1974? Didn’t our foreign and trade ministries send appropriate instructions to Washington in time? Even if the instructions from the foreign ministry were transmitted to our embassy in Washington by pigeon carriers, there was enough time for Sri Lanka to participate in those meetings.
In March, the USTR initiated these 301 investigations on 60 trading partners, and invited all of them for confidential consultations. Out of the 60, 46 participated in these consultations. Sri Lanka was not one of them. Other countries that didn’t participate in these consultations included China, Russia, and Venezuela! In addition to that, the Section 301 Committee conducted a public hearing with interested parties on April 28 and 29. Washington-based diplomats, representatives from few trade ministries as well as representatives from many foreign trade associations and chambers participated in these hearings. Sri Lanka was once again conspicuously absent.
As a result, when the USTR published the proposed forced labour tariffs on June 2nd, Sri Lanka ended up with a 12.5% duty. Pakistani and Indonesian diplomats participated in these consultations and took appropriate follow-up measures, and managed to enter the 10% duty category. As even a threat of a modest tariff hike could disrupt supply chains and reduce competitiveness, particularly in an industry such as garments, I discussed this issue on 15 June and underscored the importance of Sri Lanka’s participation at the next hearing, which was scheduled to be held from July 7th .
Awakening from Diplomatic Slumber and AKD’s Gazette
Fortunately, Sri Lanka finally awoke from weeks of diplomatic slumber, and Ambassador Mahinda Samarasinghe participated in the public hearing on 9 July, and promised, “…. · We have agreed to the text in our negotiations with the USTR on forced labour, …. The gazette as we speak is being printed and I’m getting the gazette tomorrow morning, and the gazette will be shared with USTR as I get it“.
As promised, President Anura Kumara Dissanayake issued a gazette on 10 July banning the imports of goods produced by forced labour. These new regulations are very similar to what Pakistan and Indonesia enacted in April, after their consultations with USTR in March. Why couldn’t we do it in April? Why did we wait till the very last minute?
Challenges ahead
“War is too important to be left to generals alone,” is a famous saying attributed to former French Premier Georges Clemenceau. Similarly, monitoring our main markets is too important to be left to diplomats alone. The United States is the largest single-country market for Sri Lanka. Therefore, Sri Lankan trade chambers and associations should become more proactive in these markets and participate in these events. For example, the chairman of the Pakistani apparel exporters association participated in the April hearings. Similarly, representatives from the Indian Agricultural and Processed Food Products Export Development Authority, the Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry, the Confederation of Indian Industry, and Reliance Industries also participated in July hearings. At an event where each speaker is given only five minutes (strictly enforced), having a number of speakers from a country is an advantage. The presence of industry representatives in these kinds of events also help them understand the market dynamics and the future challenges. This is important, particularly because there will be many more challenges with Trump’s tariffs.
With the gazette issued on 10 July, Sri Lanka has imposed a prohibition on the importation of goods produced with forced labour. Now, the challenge will be to effectively enforce the prohibition. And what are the goods produced with forced labour? The USTR list only focuses on aluminum, cotton, electronics, lithium-ion batteries, rice, and tobacco. However, according to the U.S. Department of Labour, the list is much longer. Hence, this list may change continuously during the next two years and tariffs may fluctuate once again.
So, this is definitely not the time to slumber.
(The writer, a retired public servant, can be reached at senadhiragomi@gmail.com)
by Gomi Senadhira ✍️
Features
Tales of Mystery and Suspense 10 Casino for Sale
After the overwhelming grotesquerie of J K Rowling’s latest Cormoran Strike novel (written, I should have noted, as the others were, under the pseudonym Robert Galbraith), I thought I should return to the world of fun, and also a much shorter description since this thriller moves quickly without the layers of detail that Rowling engages in.
I then move to the second comic thriller by Caryl Brahms and S J Simon. This, their second story to feature Vladimir Stroganoff and Adam Quill, was Casino for Sale, as lunatic a romp as the first, though without the emphasis on the ballet that characterized A Bullet in the Ballet.
This one begins with the impresario Stroganoff buying a casino cheap from Baron Sam de Rabinovich, only to find that it was a rundown place, not the grand casino of La Bazouche, a resort on the Frenc+h Riviera, as he had initially thought. The grand one belonged to Lord Buttonhooke, and Stroganoff could not compete, until he thought of bringing the Ballet Stroganoff to the casino – which of course leads to Buttonhooke deciding to have ballet performances in his Casino too.
Stroganoff invites Quill to visit him, which Quill decides to do since he has left Scotland Yard, having come into a legacy. No one believes this, and he has to face questions as to what he did to have been sacked, with sympathy for having been found out.
The day he arrives in La Bazouche there is a murder, of a vitriolic critic called Citrolo, in Stroganoff’s office. He had been going to write a damning review of the opening night of the ballet and Stroganoff, when he realizes Citrolo cannot be swayed, drugs him and dictates the review himself to the papers. He leaves Citrolo sleeping and finds him shot the next morning, whereupon he decides to muddy the waters and leave a suicide note and lots of other murder weapons. So much overkill, as it were, of course ensures that he is arrested.
But the excitable French detective who makes the arrest follows up his suggestion that Buttonhooke was also involved, and so the two casino owners find themselves in cells next door to each other, with the detective Gustave quite happy to provide creature comforts for a fee.
Quill decides he must investigate, and finds Gustave most cooperative, since he has a laid back attitude to work. So it is Quill that finds a notebook which makes it clear Citrolo is an accomplished blackmailer, and that there are lots of possible murderers, including Stroganoff’s croupier, who was crooked, Rabinovich, who was now working for Buttonhooke, a confidence trickster called Kurt Kukumber, whose prospectus for a dud gold mine was found in the office and Prince Alexis Artishok who was engaged in a deal to buy diamonds from the ballerina Dyra Dyrakova.
Stroganoff had been trying to get Dyrakova to dance for him, but having done so previously she had refused. But then to Stroganoff’s chagrin she agreed to dance for Buttonhooke. The clearly crooked Artishok had told Buttonhooke’s mistress Sadie Souse, who was not very bright, that Dyrakova possessed diamonds she was willing to sell cheap, and Sadie was determined to have them.
Quill meanwhile finds out that there was a secret passage to Stroganoff’s office, the obvious solution to what had begun as a locked room mystery, and that this was known by almost everyone apart from Stroganoff himself. And then Rabinovich is murdered, just after Gustave had released his two original suspects, leading him to blame Quill for having insisted on that and thus allowing them to kill again.
Soon afterwards Dyrakova arrives, and the town is full of posters announcing that she will appear in the casinos, elaborate posters for either one, since Stroganoff is determined that she will dance for him, and if she does not come willingly, he has devised a scheme to make her do so unwillingly. So, though Buttonhooke has her taken off to his yacht immediately she arrives at the station, Quill along with Arenskaya gets her into a launch and to Stroganoff’s casino, where she performs to tumultuous applause, not knowing for whom she is dancing.
When Quill asked her about the diamonds, she said she had sold them long ago, and that gave Quill the solution to the mystery. Rabinovich had known about this, and Artishok had killed him to prevent Sadie learning it from him, he had killed Citrolo who had recognized him for an accomplished card sharper, not a Russian prince at all. But before he is arrested, he gets away in a boat, and the police launch that pursues him is on the point of catching him up when it runs out of petrol.
Again, lots of excitement, and entertaining references – Gustave grows marrows – and if not quite as brilliant as its predecessor, Casino was certainly a delightful read.
Features
The challenge of being positive about SAARC
It was a few years back that a former President of Sri Lanka took it on himself to pronounce SAARC ‘dead’. Since then there have been other sections of Sri Lankan opinion that have joined the critics of SAARC and taken the solemn stance that SAARC has indeed died what may be called a natural death.
Their fatalism is understandable. SAARC has failed to meet at heads of government or state level for the past several years to take the SAARC process notably forward. Regional cooperation has more or less been only an appealing idea. No substantive concrete projects have taken off to make the idea a hard reality. ‘Inner paralysis’ seems to be SAARC’s lot. Hence the fatalism in these circles.
However, being one of the worst cash-strapped regions of the world and a teemingly populated one with people virtually left to their devices, what choices do the ‘SAARC Eight’ have other than to try their best to band together and continue with their cooperation efforts, however small they may be?
There is no escaping the mounting debt trap for many of these countries and bankrupt Sri Lanka is a glaring example, but ‘throwing in the towel’ and abandoning themselves entirely to the diktats of the strongest economies and their agencies will prove a ‘living death’ for many countries in the SAARC fold.
The gains may be meagre but giving-up on SAARC cooperation in full would prove self-defeating for the organization and South Asia. Right now, the collective intention ought to be to salvage what the region could from the tenuous cooperative efforts. Moreover, such initiatives could go some distance to generate a degree of goodwill among the Eight and help in sustaining a dialogue process.
Given this backdrop it proved ‘a stich in time’ for the Regional Centre for Strategic Studies (RCSS), Colombo, to recently host the SAARC Secretary General Ambassador Md. Golam Sarwar to a round table discussion on the unifying potential of SAARC and its future possibilities, besides other related issue areas.
Held on June 24th and moderated by RCSS Executive Director and former ambassador Ravinatha Aryasinha, the forum brought together a vibrant, wide ranging audience comprising academicians, diplomats, senior public servants, civil society activists and many others. Following the presentation by Ambassador Golam Sarwar titled, ‘Reigniting SAARC: Achievements, Challenges and the Way Ahead’, a lively Q&A followed.
The above forum could be described as an act of lighting the proverbial ‘candle’ rather than ‘cursing the darkness.’ It surely is a ‘darkness’ that could be seen as daunting considering that the region’s pivotal powers, India and Pakistan, are failing to act in a spirit of accord but are engaged in bitter finger-pointing on a number of questions of vital importance to SAARC.
On the other hand, what is the rest of the region doing to bring the above sides together? It is disappointing that to date the rest of SAARC has failed to launch a major diplomatic drive to bring peace between the feuding regional heavyweights. It needs to act without delay and establish its earnestness and this effort would need to prove SAARC’s staying power in the unfolding months and even years.
In assessing SAARC’s seeming failure local opinion in particular has failed to factor in what could be described as weak leadership. Since Sheikh Mujibur Rahman of Bangladesh, the founding father of SAARC, the region has failed to produce a visionary leader who could advance the SAARC cause with charisma and drive.
Among other reasons, weak leadership accounts considerably for the faltering and stuttering status, as it were, of SAARC. Badly needed are leaders who could go the extra mile, think less of narrow national interests and work diligently towards the collective well being of the region but SAARC’s millions of ordinary people have been made to wait in vain for leaders of such stature. Instead, they have been burdened with politicians who seem to be relishing the apparently moribund state of SAARC.
Looking back, it could be said that it was the dynamic leadership factor that led to the launching of the Non-Aligned Movement and for its sustenance for a few decades. True, it could be seen in some quarters that NAM is no more, but as in the case of SAARC, the former too has been unfortunate to be burdened over the years with politicians who lack the vision and drive to unflaggingly advance the fortunes of the South. NAM and SAARC lack the dynamism and vision of leaders of the stature of Jawaharlal Nehru, for example, to give them the required guidance and intellectual depth.
The reasons are complex for there not being among us currently political leaders with the vision and the steadfast commitment to advance the legitimate interests of the South. However, it could be stated with conviction that the majority of Southern leaders have too easily caved in to the demands of the global North and its financial agencies.
These leaders have failed to see, for instance, that the largely market economy oriented Northern governments would not view with favour a centrist economic model that attaches priority to the interests of the dis-empowered publics of the South. This realization ought to have dawned on the current government in Sri Lanka, for instance, some while ago but it has no choice but to abide by IMF dictates since economic survival at present is unthinkable without the latter’s succour.
Accordingly for SAARC this should be the time for some soul-searching. Priority needs to be attached to ending the feuding between India and Pakistan since at present the material fortunes of the region hinge largely on these regional giants giving peaceful relations among them a try. This is no easy challenge to meet but some daring, visionary diplomacy needs to take hold among the rest of SAARC.
There is some sense in SAARC bringing the peoples of the region together through programs that address their best collective interests. A meeting of minds among SAARC nations could enable SAARC and its agencies to build a region-wide people’s movement for progressive political and economic change that could in turn lead to the region’s political leaders sensitizing themselves more to the neglected needs of their publics.
However, the time is ‘now’ for the initiation of these progressive changes and the voice of SAARC well wishers would need to drown out those of their critics.
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