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Fitch Ratings expect another interest rate cut before end-2023

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‘Downside risks to banks are easing’

 ‘Sri Lanka still remains dependent on official financing sources’

 ‘Normalising relationship with foreign creditors may result in a ratings upgrade’

by Sanath Nanayakkare

The Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) which cut the standing deposit facility rate by a cumulative 350bp since January 2023 is expected to go for another rate cut before end-2023, Fitch Ratings said in a report released on 28 Sep. 2023.

“The downside risks to banks are easing. The exclusion of banks’ holdings of treasury securities from the DDO has alleviated some of the pressure on their capital positions from weakening loan quality and rupee depreciation as well as any immediate funding and liquidity stresses. We believe any incremental risk to the banks’ capital from foreign currency debt restructuring is likely to be manageable given their limited exposure to the defaulted sovereign bonds (3.6% of their combined total assets at end-1H23) and high provision coverage.

The Fitch report mainly dealt on the upgrading of Sri Lanka’s LongTerm Local-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) to ‘CCC-‘ from ‘RD’ (Restricted Default).

” The upgrade of Sri Lanka’s Long-Term Local-Currency IDR to ‘CCC-‘ reflects the completion of the local-currency portion of Sri Lanka’s domestic debt optimisation (DDO) plan, launched in July 2023, following the exchange of the Central Bank of Sri Lanka’s (CBSL) treasury bills and provisional advance into new treasury bonds and bills on 21 September 2023″, Fitch said.

“We assume the debt restructuring will lower Sri Lanka’s gross financing needs over the medium term, in line with the targets under the IMF’s Extended Fund Facility, and support an improvement in the country’s debt metrics over time. Local-currency restructuring could accelerate progress towards the restructuring of external debt,” they said.

The following are some extracts from the report: “General government debt and the interest costs faced by the government will remain high, despite the debt restructuring. Sri Lanka’s gross general government debt-to-GDP ratio is set to fall only gradually to just above 100% of GDP by 2028, from 128% of GDP in 2022, according to IMF programme forecasts published in March 2023, which incorporated a local- and foreign-currency debt restructuring scenario. The IMF scenario forecast the government interest-to- revenue ratio will decline to 42% by 2028, from over 70% in 2022.”

“The authorities expect the completion of the local-currency debt exchange to lower Sri Lanka’s gross government financing needs (GFN)/GDP by about 1.5pp over 2027-2032, according to documents published in July. External debt restructuring, which authorities expect to reduce GFN by an additional 2.6pp, remains critical to achieving the target of reducing GFN below 13% by 2027-2032, from 34% in 2022.”

“We believe IMF programme implementation, in particular fiscal measures, will be central to achieving debt sustainability. The risks remain significant, in our view, as a record of weak revenue generation presents challenges to achieving a faster reduction in the budget deficit and the general government debt-to-GDP ratio.”

“Authorities have taken several tax measures since May 2022 to improve revenue collection, including raising the corporate income tax rate to 30% from 24%, increasing the VAT rate to 15% from 8%, and raising fuel excise taxes. This resulted in revenue collection rising 43% yoy in 1H23. Additional measures in the pipeline include removing product-specific VAT exemptions before 2024 and introducing a property tax before 2025.”

“Sri Lanka’s foreign-exchange (FX) reserves have been improving, with gross FX reserves rising to USD3.6 billion in August 2023, from USD1.9 billion at end-2022, partly the result of IMF disbursements and suspension of external debt servicing. However, without access to international capital markets, the sovereign remains dependent on official financing sources.”

We expect a gradual pick-up in exports in 2024-2025 after a contraction in 2023. Overseas worker remittance inflows are also rising. We therefore expect the current account deficit to stabilise at 1.6% of GDP over 2024-2025.”

“The sovereign remains in default on foreign currency obligations and has initiated a debt restructuring with official and private external creditors. The Ministry of Finance’s statement on 12 April 2022 said it had suspended normal debt servicing of several categories of external debt, including bonds issued in international capital markets, foreign currency-denominated loans and credit facilities with commercial banks and institutional lenders.”

“Completion of the foreign-currency commercial debt restructuring that Fitch judges to have normalised the relationship with private-sector creditors may result in an upgrade.”



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Sri Lanka worthy of being ranked as the world’s top holiday spot – cricketing great Wasim Akram

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Cricketing great Wasim Akram being felicitated by chairman Softlogic Life Ashok Pathirage.(R)

Pakistani cricketing legend Wasim Akram said Sri Lanka is the best tourist destination and is worthy of being ranked the world’s top holiday spot. ‘The island’s natural beauty and my decades-long connection with the country, are factors that enhance Sri Lanka’s value, he explained.

Speaking at a Softlogic Life investor forum in Colombo last Tuesday Akram said Sri Lanka remained one of his favourite destinations despite having traveled extensively around the world.

Akram who captained the Pakistani national cricket team and was celebrated as Softlogic Life’s brand ambassador said filming the company’s latest television commercial gave him another opportunity to experience some of the country’s most scenic locations, including Galle and the central highlands.

Akram said Sri Lanka’s landscapes, rivers and coastline were among the most beautiful he had beheld during his travels and expressed surprise that the country was not already considered one of the world’s leading tourism destinations.

Having first visited Sri Lanka as a teenager in 1985, Akram said he had returned numerous times over the years as a player, commentator and tourist. He added that he plans to continue visiting the island regularly and hopes to explore more of the east coast in the future.

Softlogic Life had impressive growth last year and is looking forward to introducing new life insurance products to the local market considering the increasing the aging population in Sri Lanka.

By Hiran H. Senewiratne

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Veenath Indrajith from the University of Sri Jayewardenepura wins the 2026 Saman Kelegama Memorial Research Grant

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Veenath Indrajith / Dr Saman Kelegama

Veenath Indrajith, a fourth-year undergraduate from the Department of Business Economics at the University of Sri Jayewardenepura, has been selected as the winner of the Saman Kelegama Memorial Research Grant for 2026. Indrajith’s academic and professional interests lie in economics, finance, investment, and policy-oriented research. In addition to his undergraduate studies, he is currently pursuing the Chartered Accountancy qualification in Sri Lanka, demonstrating a strong commitment to analytical rigour and professional excellence. He aspires to contribute to evidence-based policymaking through applied economic research.

Indrajith’s research study, titled “Small Vehicle Businesses and Household Investors Using the Second-Hand Car Market as an Alternative Investment Method in the Colombo District of Sri Lanka,” will adopt a qualitative research approach to explore the motivations, experiences, perceived returns, and risks associated with investing in used vehicles. By analysing household-level decision-making and investment behaviour, the research aims to shed light on a relatively underexplored area of Sri Lanka’s alternative investment landscape. The findings are expected to provide valuable insights for policymakers, particularly in relation to financial literacy, household investment strategies, and the development and regulation of alternative investment markets in Sri Lanka.

The Saman Kelegama Memorial Research Grant, established in 2018, honours the legacy of the late Dr. Saman Kelegama, former Executive Director of the Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka (IPS), whose work significantly shaped public policy discourse on socio-economic development in Sri Lanka and the broader South Asian region. The grant is awarded annually to an outstanding undergraduate student from a Sri Lankan university, with the aim of encouraging innovative, policy-relevant research and nurturing the next generation of policy thinkers. As part of this grant, Indrajith will receive training and mentoring from IPS senior researchers to complete the proposed study.

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Delmege Consumer partners with Daraz

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Signing ceremony -  from Left to Right - Dushan Khadagammege, Head of Retail and Supply Chain,  Daraz, with the team from the  Delmege Group comprising  Baratha Piyadigama Group Head of Marketing, Shanaka Rajapaksha Manager Marketing Delmege Consumer, Atheeq Kabeer Manager E- Commerce and Digital Marketing .

Delmege Consumer, the flagship FMCG cluster of the Delmege Group, has evolved into one of Sri Lanka’s most trusted household names, building lasting relationships with communities across the island through a diverse portfolio of quality products that have become an integral part of consumers’ everyday lives for generations. Renowned for enriching households with Delmege’s own brands, leading local brands, and world-renowned international brands, the company continues to strengthen its presence, reputation, and connection with consumers nationwide.

A key strength of the FMCG cluster lies in the strong and enduring partnerships it has cultivated with suppliers, enabling the company to establish a responsive, time-sensitive, and mutually beneficial distribution network that has made a significant impact across Sri Lanka. Through its extensive reach and customer-focused approach, Delmege Consumer serves retail, wholesale, HoReCa, export, and modern trade channels, supported by flexible channel management strategies and winning consumer-centric propositions that cater to evolving market needs.

Further strengthening its distribution network and expanding its digital footprint, Delmege Consumer has partnered with Daraz, Sri Lanka’s leading e-commerce platform, to offer customers a more convenient, seamless, and accessible way to purchase its extensive range of FMCG products online.

Commenting on the partnership, Anil Meegahage, CEO of Delmege Consumer, stated:

“At Delmege Consumer, we are committed to innovation, continuously strengthening our product portfolio, and enhancing customer convenience and experience. Our partnership with Daraz enables us to serve customers across the country more efficiently by providing them with an easy, secure, and reliable platform to purchase trusted Delmege FMCG products online.”

Adding further, Baratha Piyadigama, Head of Group Marketing, Delmege, said:

“This partnership with Daraz marks another important milestone in our journey to enhance brand positioning, visibility, and awareness, especially at a time when digital and online commerce continue to gain significant momentum. As one of Sri Lanka’s leading FMCG distributors, we are proud to extend our trusted portfolio of products into the digital space through Daraz, ensuring customers across the island can conveniently access their favourite products with just a few clicks.”

Delmege’s extensive FMCG portfolio includes well-known Delmege branded products such as Canned Fish, Hiru Kahata Tea, Delmege Soya, Flavours and Colours, Delmege Pasta,

Delmege Noodles, and Salt, together with the much-loved Motha range of dessert ingredients, beverages, and mixes. The company also represents globally renowned international brands including Kellogg’s cereals such as Corn Flakes, Muesli, and Oats; Pringles; and the Ferrero portfolio featuring Ferrero Rocher, Nutella, Kinder Joy, and Tic Tac. Through its diverse and trusted brand portfolio, Delmege Consumer continues to reinforce its position as one of Sri Lanka’s leading FMCG companies.

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