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Tripolar Game: To Be Realistic, There Are Three Options, Not Two

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Former American Secretary of State Dr Henry Kissinger in 2019. Dr. Kissinger broke with the Western version of the two-camp theory i.e., ‘free democracies vs Communism’, to insist that the world order had entered a situation of tri-polarity—USA, Russia, China.

DR. DAYAN JAYATILLEKA

‘To be Realistic There Are Only Two Options’ opined emeritus professor (and emeritus Marxist) Kumar David in these pages last Sunday. This is his core argument:

“There are only two political options…worth taking seriously – the President Ranil Wickremesinghe (RW) led outfit and the National Peoples’ Power (NPP) public face of the JVP. The RW-outfit may manifest itself in many forms such as a UNP-Sajith (SJB) alliance under some tactical leadership plan that may or may not include a Rajapaksa rascally rump. Whatever be their specific expositions, there are only two “camps” that matter up to and including the next election cycle. Let me call them the RW-outfit and the JVP-outfit – the Sinhala “kandavuru deka” captures the sense better. All other options (Champika, Sarath Fonseka, small left, and ethnic minority platforms) will have negligible electoral impact if they do not align with one of these big outfits. This is in respect of a presidential election; in parliamentary or provincial polls ethnic minority platforms will, of course, have a substantial impact in the areas of domicile of their communities.…”

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There is absolutely no empirical, historical or conceptual basis for his conclusion. Nor is there a logical analysis underlying it.

Moreover, this is exactly the monumentally mistaken assessment of the movement Prof Kumar David belonged to, the Trotskyist LSSP. In 1956 and 1960, it thought that the only two political protagonists that mattered, were the Right, represented by the UNP and the Left, represented by itself ( and maybe the CP too). At both elections, the LSSP was proved wrong, and the ‘intermediate formation’ the SLFP won.

The LSSP’s methodological error was the same one being made by Prof Kumar David today, and by the JVP-NPP too. That error is the twin tendency of ‘reductionism’ and ‘essentialism’, in which the decisive political criteria is seen as a coherent economic ideology, or a clear, coherent ideology in general. This ignores the autonomy and complexity of politics.

Prof Kumar David’s ‘two camp theory’ or ‘polarization prognosis’ is a sign of Leninism misunderstood or forgotten. If things tend more than not, to polarize into two clear-cut camps on the basis of class, ideology or program, and along the lines of sharp clarity, there would be no need for United Fronts. But at the Second Comintern Congress of 1920, in the resolutions on the National and Colonial Question, and the Third Congress of 1921, in the discussion of the capitalist counter-offensive and incipient fascism, Lenin advocated a policy of United Fronts. He did so precisely because of the strategic significance of the intermediate strata — the national movement in the colonies, the social democratic workers parties in the West– in both in socio-economic terms and also in political terms.

Real-World Politics

In real-world political struggles, there aren’t only two camps based on polarization between two diametrically opposed, antagonistic forces. There are three forces, not two, because of the vital role of the intermediate ones.

To put it simply, outcomes in politics is not primarily about sharply contending economic programs, ideologies or stands. That is why mechanistic Marxists are usually stunned when the outcome is somewhere in the middle, and the choice made by the people is an eclectic melange rather than a clear-cut program.

In democratic politics, people tend to choose between ‘mixes’ , or choose a mix that they feel closest to or in their opinion, offers them the best chance of improvement. People often opt not so much for a diametrically opposite alternative to that of the status quo, but one that seizes the imagination by offering a choice that represents a mix of continuity and change. Thus, Bill Clinton, Tony Blair, Emmanuel Macron and Joe Biden.

Kumar David’s model certainly fails to explain Sri Lanka’s politics: SWRD Bandaranaike, Sirimavo Bandaranaike, Premadasa, CBK, Mahinda. His model completely overlooks the political success of varieties of “centrism”. Be it ‘center-left’ or ‘center-right’, the most consistently successful space in Sri Lankan politics has been that of the moderately progressive ‘center’ or ‘Middle path’.

I am not making the point that in Sri Lanka next year, centrism (SJB) will prevail over the Left (NPP-JVP). I am not even saying it should. The point I am making is that the centrist option cannot be ruled out and the consequential contestation cannot be reduced as Kumar does, to that of Right vs Left.

Political & Historical Realism

A Realist analysis would yield quite a different conclusion from that of Prof Kumar David. The most famous of living Realists, Dr. Henry Kissinger broke with the Western version of the two-camp theory i.e., ‘free democracies vs Communism’, to insist that the world order had entered a situation of tri-polarity—USA, Russia, China. This made no sense to old-school Cold Warriors for whom Russia and China were ruled by Communist parties and shared a Marxist-Leninist ideology. They still saw things in terms of ‘two camps’, as does Prof Kumar David.

Sri Lanka’s reality is that there are three political poles: Ranil, Sajith, Anura, or if you prefer, Ranil, Anura, Sajith. What matters is not who is listed second and third, but that there are three, not two, except in Kumar’s imagination.

Ranil is even on the list and comes in at No 1, ONLY because he is the incumbent, though unelected president. It is because he wields state and governmental power, not because he leads the UNP or the Right—both of which he does. If political popularity were the criteria, the results of opinion polls actually place Ranil third, well behind Anura and Sajith.

In terms of the real estate of votes and parliamentary seats (Nov 2019 and August 2020) Sajith cannot but be listed at least as No 2. Whoever is backed by the ruling SLPP is No 1. Sajith holds more political real estate than does the JVP-NPP.

On the other hand, in the light of opinion polls, Sajith is running behind Anura Kumara, but the two of them are running way ahead of Ranil or anyone else. So, in terms of the Oppositional space, the picture is of two contenders, AKD and SP or vice versa.

In terms of the national space and next year’s presidential election, the picture is AT LEAST tripolar, not bipolar. Tripolar because it’s a Ranil-Anura-Sajith triangle. I say ‘at least’ tripolar, because it could become a political Quad next year. The photographs of the Sinhala ultranationalists gathering at the Kurundi Vihara book launch reveal an ingathering of the Gotabayan far right tribe without Gotabaya. That formation could easily run a candidate such as Wimal Weerawansa, Sarath Weerasekara or more formidably Anuradha Yahampath. That candidate won’t win, but the game would then be four sided, not Kumar’s simplistic two-player (Ranil vs Anura) scenario.

Kumar’s entire argument is based on the supposition that Sajith will withdraw from the presidential race in favour of Ranil or return to a subaltern position under him. Kumar must not make the same mistake he commends others not to. That is to confuse the presidential with the parliamentary election. The presidential is due to precede the parliamentary and will doubtless have a knock-on impact on it. While there may be an SJB split or even a swing of the SJB into a bloc with the UNP at a parliamentary election, there isn’t the slightest sign of Sajith quitting the presidential election in favour of Ranil.

The Ranil-Sajith punch-up in Parliament on Wednesday August 9 after RW’s lengthy presentation on the 13th amendment, in which Sajith flatly rejected Ranil’s insistence that constitutional revision of the 13th amendment must precede elections to Provincial Councils, and instead unwaveringly insisted on the holding of PC elections as a prerequisite for deliberation on any such revisions, certainly did not indicate an Opposition leader who is likely to cave into Ranil and withdraw his candidacy next year—and surely not when he and his party are way ahead of Ranil, the UNP and the SLPP, in the opinion polls.



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From stabilisation to transformation without delay

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At a symposium on reconciliation organised by the National Peace Council last week, more than 250 religious clergy, civic activists and political representatives from different communities gathered to discuss the country’s future. Speaking at the event, Minister Bimal Rathnayake explained the government’s approach to national reconciliation. He said the government viewed the country’s recovery in terms of a three stage process. The first stage was stabilisation, the second was development and the third was transformation. Reconciliation, he implied, would come in that final stage. The participation of Opposition Leader Sajith Premadasa at the same symposium, and the constructive nature of his comments, strengthens that hope.

When the present NPP government took office in 2024, the country was emerging from one of the gravest crises in its post Independence history. The economic collapse of 2022 had led to shortages of fuel, food, medicines and electricity. Inflation soared, foreign reserves disappeared and long queues became part of daily life. The political upheaval that followed culminated in the resignation of former President Gotabaya Rajapaksa after mass public protests under the banner of the Aragalaya movement. The country was then governed by a leadership that spoke the language of reform and reconciliation but was widely perceived as lacking a direct popular mandate.

Sri Lanka’s past experience suggests that stabilisation and transformation cannot be treated as entirely separate stages. Postponing reconciliation until some future moment risks repeating the failures of the past. If transformation is endlessly delayed until a supposedly perfect moment arrives, there will always be new crises and new reasons for postponement. Minister Rathnayake’s contention that the government’s immediate priority has necessarily been stabilisation flows from the government’s awareness of the precarious situation the country is. Over the past two years, the government has succeeded to a significant extent in restoring economic and political stability. Inflation has reduced, shortages have ended and public institutions have regained a degree of functionality.

Guaranteed Changes

On the other hand, the country’s development continues to face challenges due to adverse global conditions, including disruptions caused by conflict in the Middle East and extreme weather events that have affected tourism, trade and the cost of living. The danger is that reconciliation may be indefinitely postponed in the name of stabilisation. This danger can be reduced if the government works proactively with the opposition and civil society to commence practical measures of transformation now rather than later. The participation of Opposition Leader Sajith Premadasa at the symposium, and the constructive nature of his comments, has strengthened the sense that bipartisan engagement on reconciliation may now be possible.

The urgency of transformation came through strongly in the presentations made by representatives of the Sri Lanka Tamil and Malaiyaha Tamil communities. ITAK parliamentarian S.Shritharan spoke of the frustration caused by unresolved post war issues in the north and east. He referred to disputes regarding land occupied during the war years, including controversies linked to Buddhist temples and state sponsored settlement activity in areas claimed by local communities. He also pointed to the continuing large scale presence of the security forces in the north and east nearly two decades after the end of the war. These grievances have remained central to Tamil political discourse since the end of the armed conflict in 2009. Families displaced by war continue to seek the return of ancestral lands. Civil society organisations in the north have repeatedly called for greater civilian control over local administration and a reduction in military involvement in civilian life.

Academic research and practical work on the ground have shown that reconciliation cannot be separated from questions of dignity, equality and justice. Former minister Mano Ganesan, leader of the Democratic People’s Front, focused on the longstanding problems faced by the Malaiyaha Tamil community. He spoke passionately about continuing housing shortages, landlessness and economic marginalisation, issues that have persisted since Independence. He also highlighted the devastating impact of recent extreme weather events on estate communities that remain socially and economically vulnerable. The condition of the Malaiyaha Tamil community remains one of the enduring social justice issues in Sri Lanka.

After Independence in 1948, a large proportion of them were denied citizenship and voting rights through legislation that rendered them stateless. Though citizenship rights were eventually restored, the social and economic consequences of exclusion continue to be felt generations later.

Many families still lack secure housing and land ownership despite their immense contribution to the country’s plantation economy. Minister Rathnayake’s responses to both these concerns were politically significant. He argued that recent political developments, including the declining influence of narrow ethnic politics across communities, indicated a major shift in public attitudes. According to him, the political ground has changed in ways that make it increasingly difficult for politicians who rely primarily on ethnic division and communal insecurity to retain public support.

Inter-Connected

There is evidence to support the assessment about the changing political grounding which sees future prospects in the resolution of long standing problems. . The economic collapse of 2022 affected all communities alike and generated a new politics centred on governance, anti corruption, accountability and economic justice. The Aragalaya protests brought together Sinhalese, Tamils and Muslims in a common demand for political change. Although ethnic grievances have not disappeared, the crisis created space for a broader understanding that the country’s future depends on cooperation rather than division. Opposition Leader Premadasa’s comments at the symposium reflected this changing political climate. He emphasised that national reconciliation could not be separated from economic justice and the need to address disparities between regions and social classes.v He also mentioned the need for civil society organisations to take this message to the community. This wider understanding of reconciliation is important because ethnic inequality and economic inequality have often reinforced each other in Sri Lanka’s history.

Academic studies have identified the denial of citizenship rights after Independence as a historic injustice that set back the Malaiyaha community for decades. The challenge now is to ensure that transformation becomes part of the stabilisation and development process itself. Practical first steps are both possible and necessary. The release of civilian lands still under state control, greater devolution of administrative authority, reduction of military involvement in civilian affairs, language equality in public administration and accelerated housing and land ownership programmes in the plantation sector are all measures that can begin immediately without waiting for a final stage of transformation.

The government’s recent commitment that provincial council elections will finally be held this year is therefore significant. These elections have been repeatedly postponed by successive governments. Holding them would not solve the ethnic conflict by itself. But it would signal a willingness to restore democratic institutions and share power in a meaningful way.

Sri Lanka has repeatedly postponed difficult reforms in the hope that a more convenient political moment would eventually arrive. But opportunities are invariably created and fought for instead of being provided as a gift by a benevolent government.

The present moment, shaped by the economic crisis and public demand for accountable government, offers a rare opportunity to move simultaneously towards stability, development and reconciliation. Provincial council elections can be the first meaningful step. But they must not be the last.

by Jehan Perera

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Researchers to shape new environmental policy framework

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Some of the researchers at the meeting

In a significant move aimed at steering Sri Lanka’s environmental governance towards a more science-based and evidence-driven path, the Ministry of Environment has initiated a new collaborative mechanism to integrate leading researchers into national policy formulation and conservation planning.

The initiative was discussed at a high-level meeting chaired by Dr. Dammika Patabendi at the Ministry of Environment on Tuesday, where top environmental scientists, wildlife experts and researchers were invited to contribute towards what officials described as a “strategic transition” in the country’s environmental management framework.

The discussions focused on strengthening the scientific basis of environmental conservation programmes and national policy decisions while creating a more research-friendly environment for academics and field scientists engaged in biodiversity and ecological studies.

Particular attention was paid to long-standing concerns raised by researchers regarding procedural and operational difficulties encountered when conducting studies in collaboration with the Department of Wildlife Conservation and the Forest Department.

Minister Patabendi stressed the need for environmental policies to be guided by credible scientific data rather than ad hoc administrative decisions, ministry sources said.

Among the key proposals discussed was the establishment of a streamlined mechanism that would reduce bureaucratic obstacles faced by researchers in obtaining approvals, accessing field sites and sharing scientific findings with state institutions.

The Minister highlighted the importance of building stronger partnerships between policymakers and the scientific community at a time when Sri Lanka is grappling with escalating environmental challenges including deforestation, biodiversity loss, human-elephant conflict, climate-related disasters and ecosystem degradation.

Environmentalists attending the meeting had also highlighted the urgent necessity of incorporating empirical research into national decision-making processes to ensure long-term ecological sustainability and better resource management.

The meeting brought together several of Sri Lanka’s leading environmental researchers and academics including Rohan Pethiyagoda, Saminda Fernando, Sewwandi Jayakody, Samantha Gunasekara, Dinidu Devapura, Himesh Jayasinghe, Manoj Prasanna, Mendis Wickramasinghe and Suranjan Karunarathna.

Director General of Wildlife Conservation Ranjan Marasinghe also participated in the deliberations.

Officials said the proposed framework is expected to pave the way for a more transparent, data-oriented and scientifically credible environmental governance structure capable of addressing emerging conservation challenges more effectively.

The government expects the new mechanism to support the implementation of practical and scientifically robust programmes aimed at safeguarding Sri Lanka’s ecological future while enhancing cooperation between state agencies and the country’s growing community of environmental researchers.

 

By Ifham Nizam

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Back home … for a special occasion

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Seven Notes: Sri Lankans based in Dubai – with Niluk (second from left)

Niluk Uswaththa, of Seven Notes fame, based in Dubai, surprised many when he and his wife Apeksha, turned up in Colombo, last week … unannounced.

Yes, they had a purpose in their surprise visit … to wish Apeksha’s mum for her birthday, which was on Monday, 18th May, and what a surprise it turned out to be!

In an exclusive chit-chat with The Island, Niluk said that the scene in Dubai is improving and Seven Notes do have work coming their way.

Since the members of Seven Notes are all employed (doing day jobs), they operate only on Saturdays and Sundays.

Niluk: Didn’t come prepared to perform, but obliged
friends in Galle

In fact, to get to Colombo for the birthday surprise (on Monday, 18th May), the band had to skip their 17th May, Sunday gig.

“Although it’s a short vacation, my wife and I are enjoying the setup here,” said Niluk, adding that they spent two days in Galle and that their next destination is Anuradhapura.”

Niluk didn’t come prepared to perform, but he obliged the crowd present, at a friend’s birthday celebrations, in Galle, singing and playing guitar.

They are scheduled to leave for their home, in Dubai, in the first week of June.

Seven Notes is an outfit made up of Sri Lankans and the band has been around for almost nine years.

Niluk came into their scene nearly seven years ago.

“When I went to Dubai, I had offers coming my way but it was Seven Notes that impressed me because of their acoustic style.”

The Dubai’s entertainment scene is showing clear signs of bouncing back and even levelling up in the next few months.

Niluk and Apeksha: Enjoying their short vacation

After a slowdown earlier this year due to regional tensions, shows and festivals are back on the calendar, and organisers say late 2026 could be the busiest concert season in years.

Time Out Dubai says “the 2026 concert calendar is filling up nicely” and “the city is ready to party once again” after some reschedules.

Dubai Summer Surprises in July brings retail activations, comedy nights, and indoor art exhibitions.

Organisers point to a backlog of postponed events that are being rescheduled for late 2026 and early 2027.

Yes, Dubai is calm on the surface but on alert. Life is mostly normal in the city, but there’s a “balancing act” as people watch for escalation.

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