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Overcoming Obstacles: The Economic Case for a Sri Lanka-Thailand FTA

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By Asanka Wijesinghe and Nilupulee Rathnayake

In 2019, only 6 % of tea imported by Thailand was from Sri Lanka. This low percentage can be attributed to the difference in preferences and Thailand’s high tariffs of 90 % on imported tea, which act as barriers to Sri Lanka’s tea exports. Additionally, Thailand imposes up to 30 % tariffs on nearly 120 product lines of wearing apparel.

These high tariffs for products with a comparative advantage are not exclusive to Sri Lanka. Thailand also faces higher tariffs for vehicles, rubber, and light-electronics exports which Thailand exports competitively. This tariff structure hampers the bilateral trade of products with a higher comparative advantage for both countries.

Despite these challenges, Sri Lanka and Thailand have expedited the process of signing a free trade agreement (FTA) to boost bilateral trade by threefold to USD 1.5 billion. This article discusses the trade effect of an FTA and a way forward to maximise the gains from an FTA.

Existing Trade is Skewed towards Thailand

In the pre-pandemic period, Sri Lanka-Thailand bilateral trade was nearly USD 500 million. The three-year-2017, 2018 and 2019- average exports from Sri Lanka to Thailand were USD 62.9 million, while the exports from Thailand to Sri Lanka were USD 416.8 million. In 2019, Thailand was the 9th largest import source for Sri Lanka, but Sri Lanka is only the 73rd largest import source for Thailand. The mismatch resulted in a bilateral trade deficit of USD 353.9 million.

The existing exports from Sri Lanka to Thailand do not represent Sri Lanka’s typical export basket. The contribution of traditional exports like ready-made garments, tea, rubber, and coconuts is relatively low, and gems, electrical equipment, wheat flour, and activated carbon contribute to a greater extent. Technically specified natural rubber and latex are the top exports from Thailand which are essential raw materials in the value-added rubber industry of Sri Lanka.

Effect of Lowering Tariffs on Bilateral Trade to Zero

As estimated from partial equilibrium analysis, Sri Lanka will realise a 38 % increase in exports to Thailand if tariffs are reduced to zero (Figure 2). The wearing apparel sector would be the biggest beneficiary, with exports projected to increase by 251 % from USD 6.4 million to USD 22.5 million. Figure 3A provides the top ten exports by Sri Lanka benefitting from a tariff removal by Thailand. The export effect for Thailand will be 27.8 % and Thailand’s rubber and plastic products will be increased by 71.9 % or USD 35.4 million. Products such as smoked sheets of rubber and natural latexwould benefit the most from tariff elimination, as shown in Figure 3B.

Assuming an immediate phasing-out of the existing tariffs, an FTA would increase bilateral trade to USD 619.6 million by 29.1 %. This increase falls short of the ambitious goal of a threefold increase in bilateral trade, at least in the short run.

However, partial equilibrium analysis does not estimate the trade gains from new product innovations due to FDI movements. The estimates also do not account for trade effects through input-output linkages and magnification of tariff effects along the value chains. However, tariff phasing out takes time, and FTA coverages are less than 100 %.

An offensive list contains products for which a country has a comparative advantage, capacity for expansion, and a favourable tariff from the importing country. There are 154 such products for Sri Lanka. Notably, 81 % of the USD 27.6 million export gain from an FTA comes from these 154 product lines. Similarly, 69 % of Thailand’s export gains to Sri Lanka in an FTA comes from 147 products identified for the offensive list.

Once ordered by the estimated export gains, nine out of the top ten products of Sri Lanka’s offensive list are from the wearing apparel sector. For Thailand, vital offensive products are rubber, electric equipment like air-conditioners and refrigerators, and motor vehicles for goods transportation.

Challenges and the Way Forward:

Applying tariff cuts for all the products in the offensive lists is a challenge. Thailand’s high tariffs for tea and ready-made exports indicate its protectionist intent. Likewise, Sri Lanka might prefer to keep tariffs on rubber products. Significant political manoeuvring and delicate negotiations will be required to bring the coverage of the FTA to a satisfactory level. Secondly, an FTA will widen Sri Lanka’s trade deficit with Thailand by 26 % (Figure 4). Although a trade deficit is not necessarily detrimental, it does present a short-term challenge due to increased dollar outflow.

A possible solution is tariff elimination for the products in bilateral value chains. Sri Lanka uses Thailand’s rubber and textile products to produce finished goods. If Thailand removes tariffs for these finished products, increased exports will demand more raw materials. Sri Lanka can reciprocate by eliminating tariffs on raw materials. Phasing-in of the FTA, accounting for required adjustments, will also increase the political feasibility.

Strengthening bilateral trade ties with Thailand offers additional benefits to Sri Lanka. An FTA provides an opportunity to join electric equipment manufacturing value chains and a gateway to ASEAN economies. Thus, Sri Lanka should negotiate a comprehensive trade agreement with investment promotion, trade facilitation, and competition laws. Thailand can leverage Sri Lanka’s position as a distributional hub for regional exports.

Link to Talking Economics blog:

https://www.ips.lk/talkingeconomics/2023/05/11/overcoming-obstacles-the-economic-case-for-a-sri-lanka-thailand-fta/ 



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Sri Lanka’s lifestyle coffee culture boom and the two faces of its economy

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Cutting the cake for outlet number 100 - a symbol of urban commercial revival set against a backdrop of wider household economic recovery.

By Sanath Nanayakkare

On Baseline Road in Colombo, Barista Coffee recently opened its 100th outlet. For a modern café culture spreading across shopping centers, office districts, and provincial towns, this milestone is a major commercial success. It shows a thriving urban service sector and a growing class of lifestyle consumers who use coffee shops as places to work, socialise, and meet.

This is a curious new picture emerging from Sri Lanka’s post-crisis economic recovery: the coffee cup is getting bigger, even as the household tea cup tells a very different story.

Yet, looking past the espresso machines, a different reality unfolds in the country’s kitchens.

International financial institutions note that while Sri Lanka’s macro-economy is recovering, household welfare and employment remain below pre-crisis levels. Poverty rates sit at roughly double what they were in 2019, and food prices doubled over a three-year span, forcing families to cut back on essentials.

This creates a striking local paradox, especially given Sri Lanka’s proud heritage as a global tea producer. While the world pays top dollar for Ceylon Tea, local market studies and industry reports have long pointed out an unfortunate disparity: many ordinary families find high-quality tea too expensive, often settling for lower-grade alternatives at home.

The growth of a 100-outlet coffee network does not mean prosperity has spread evenly across the island. Instead, it proves that there is a specific, well-resourced segment of consumers with the purchasing power to sustain a premium lifestyle economy, even as many other households carefully calculate the cost of everyday groceries.

Barista’s 100th store is not a bad-news story; it is a testament to acute entrepreneurial grit, shifting consumer behavior, and the vital revival of the nation’s urban service sectors. But it serves as an uncompromising reminder that macroeconomic stabilisation is not synonymous with household recovery.

As Colombo’s coffee culture looks toward its next hundred outlets, the true pulse of the nation’s economic health will not be measured by the espresso machines humming in sleek urban hubs, but by the quiet arithmetic happening in millions of kitchens beyond its doors – where the fundamental question remains whether a family can comfortably afford a better cup of Ceylon Tea.

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Aitken Spence Hotel Holdings Rs. 5 billion debenture issue oversubscribed on opening day

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Aitken Spence Hotel Holdings PLC announced that its maiden listed, rated, unsecured, senior

redeemable debenture issue was oversubscribed on its opening day, 15th September 2026.

The Company sought to raise Rs. 3 billion through an initial issuance of 30 million debentures at Rs.

100 each, with an option to issue a further 20 million debentures in the event of oversubscription of the initial issue, increasing the total issue size to Rs. 5 billion.

The Company said it had received applications for more than 50 million debentures, the full amount on offer, prompting the issue to close at 4:30 p.m. on the opening day (15).

The basis of allotment will be announced to the Colombo Stock Exchange as per regulatory requirements in due course.

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GCF urges Asia to turn climate pledges into bankable projects

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The climate leaders’ gathering in Colombo.

By Ifham Nizam

The widening gap between climate commitments and actual projects on the ground has come under the spotlight in Colombo, with the Green Climate Fund (GCF) calling for a decisive shift from pledges and plans towards implementation, investment and measurable climate impact across Asia.

Some 150 climate leaders, government representatives and development partners from East and South Asia have gathered in Colombo for the GCF’s Regional Dialogue, as developing economies across the region seek greater access to climate finance to strengthen resilience, accelerate clean investment and protect vulnerable communities from intensifying climate impacts.

The dialogue has also given Sri Lanka an important platform to highlight the financing challenge confronting a climate-vulnerable economy seeking to strengthen resilience while rebuilding economic capacity.

Opening the dialogue, Environment Minister Dr. Dammika Patabendi called for moving ‘from pledges to projects, from plans to implementation, and from ambition to impact,’ stressing that transformative climate action would require stronger partnerships, increased climate finance and greater support for adaptation.

His message carries particular significance for Sri Lanka, where climate-related disasters increasingly threaten agriculture, water resources, infrastructure, livelihoods and economic activity.

For a country with limited fiscal space, financing climate resilience entirely through domestic resources remains a major challenge. International climate finance therefore has the potential to become an important source of investment for projects designed not only to reduce emissions but also to protect communities and economic assets from increasingly severe climate shocks.

The Colombo dialogue provides an opportunity for Sri Lanka to strengthen its engagement with the GCF and other development partners while highlighting the need to convert national climate priorities into credible, investment-ready projects.

The GCF said its portfolio across Asia and the Pacific currently comprises 129 projects in 36 countries, supported by USD 5.8 billion in GCF financing. It has also approved USD 163 million in Readiness support to help countries strengthen their institutional capacity and ability to access climate finance.

These figures underline the growing scale of climate investment in the region, but they also highlight the importance of countries developing strong project pipelines capable of converting available finance into implementation.

For Sri Lanka, this is likely to be one of the most important dimensions of the current climate-finance discussion.

Projects aimed at strengthening climate-resilient agriculture, water management, disaster-risk reduction, renewable energy, resilient infrastructure and ecosystem protection require significant upfront investment.

Access to concessional and climate-focused international finance could help reduce the burden on public finances while enabling projects with long-term economic and environmental returns.

The need for adaptation finance was reinforced by the opening of the Colombo dialogue, which began with a moment of remembrance for those affected by last month’s glacial flood disaster in Nepal.

For Sri Lanka, a more country-responsive climate-finance system could be particularly valuable at a time when investment needs are high but public resources remain constrained.

As the GCF begins its third replenishment, the real measure of the next phase will therefore be whether climate finance can move faster from international commitments to national projects—and ultimately from project documents to tangible results on the ground.

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