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Lanka to lend US$2.5bn to US and top-rated borrowers in 2023 under IMF deal: analysis

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ECONOMYNEXT – Sri Lanka is projected to lend 2,533 million US dollars mainly to the US and Euro areas during an International Monetary Fund deal in 2023 including a mandatory 1.4 billion US dollars collected from exports and remittances, according to official documents.

Sri Lanka is expected to get two tranches of 331.2 million dollar (254 million special drawing rights each) in March and September 2023 from the IMF.In 2023 Sri Lanka has to repay 256.4 million dollars from an earlier IMF loan taken during an earlier currency crisis.

Net inflows from the IMF would be 406.12 million US dollars in 2023 if the first review is completed in September 2023.Sri Lanka has committed to collect at least 1.4 billion US dollars from remittances and exports and lend to the US and other developed nations during 2023 under the IMF deal.

A large volume has already been collected. An ad hoc peg is now operated under the IMF deal to buy dollars and export to the West, as ‘below-the-line outflows. Sri Lanka’s foreign reserves are usually loaned to highly rated sovereign or sovereign linked borrowers, mainly in the US.

But there have been amounts of Euro assets in Sri Lanka’s foreign reserves at times, triggering forex losses when the dollar to Euro parity changed.Under the IMF program there is a performance criterion to increase net international reserves by 1,948 million dollars during 2023.

Sri Lanka is also expected to repay a 200 million US dollar swap to Bangladesh during 2023, which will also raise the NIR.At the moment Sri Lanka’s central bank is in debt after borrowing from India, Bangladesh, India including on Asian Clearing Union dues as well as the IMF. Year end net international reserves would still be negative.

Sri Lanka’s gross reserves are expected to rise by 2.5 billion US dollars to 4.4 billion US dollars in 2023 indicating that the country will lend 2.5 billion US dollars to the US and other highly rated borrowers. It may include re-invested interest coupons.

Sri Lanka is also expected to get 650 million dollars from the Asian Development Bank and 250 million dollars from the World Bank as part of partner support for the IMF deal. Outside of core monetary reserves linked to reserve money, balances in Treasury accounts are also counted as forex reserves.



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President chairs discussion on 2027 Budget Proposals for the Ministry of Industry and Entrepreneurship Development

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A pre-Budget discussion to review the progress of projects implemented under the 2026 Budget allocations for the Ministry of Industry and Entrepreneurship Development and to discuss proposals for the 2027 Budget was held under the patronage of President Anura Kumara Dissanayake at the Presidential Secretariat on Monday (13) afternoon.

The progress of projects implemented by each division of the Ministry of Industry and Entrepreneurship Development and the institutions under its purview using the 2026 Budget allocations, as well as proposals for the 2027 Budget, were reviewed separately during the discussion.

The President also focused on the current status of the programme to establish industrial zones in areas including Dambulla, Ingiriya, Valachchenai, Millaniya and Katunayake. Discussions centred on issues that have arisen in allocating land and developing infrastructure, including electricity, water and roads, as well as the urgent measures required to resolve these issues.

President Dissanayake instructed officials to make every effort to complete all projects already initiated under the Ministry of Industry and Entrepreneurship Development within the stipulated timeframes. He also highlighted the need to clearly identify the Government’s role and limitations in relation to the industrial sector.

Attention was also drawn to the current situation regarding the development of state-owned enterprises, while issues affecting the sugar and salt industries and alternative proposals to address them were also discussed.

The current status of the process to consolidate institutions under the Ministry of Industry and Entrepreneurship Development was also reviewed. The President pointed out that large institutions had been established at different times to meet various needs, ultimately creating a situation in which such institutions had to be maintained using taxpayers’ money.

He stressed that the consolidation of these institutions should not only improve their efficiency but should also result in a relative reduction in operational expenditure compared with the costs incurred prior to consolidation.

Officials also briefed the President on the proposal to establish the Entrepreneurship and Industry Transformation Authority (EITA) and the programme proposed under the Authority.

Attention was also focused on the challenges faced by exporters and industrialists in carrying out their activities. The President instructed officials to submit proposals on general concessions that could be provided to encourage exporters and industrialists.

The President further pointed out that Sri Lanka could develop distinctive expertise by identifying several key areas within the industrial sector and providing the facilities necessary for their development.

Minister of Industry and Entrepreneurship Development Sunil Handunnetti; Minister of Labour and Deputy Minister of Finance and Planning Anil Jayantha Fernando; Deputy Minister of Industry and Entrepreneurship Development Chathuranga Abeysinghe; Secretary to the President Dr Nandika Sanath Kumanayake; Chief of Presidential Staff Prabath Chandrakeerthi; Senior Additional Secretary to the President Russell Aponsu; Secretary to the Ministry of Finance, Planning and Economic Development Dr Harshana Suriyapperuma; and Secretary to the Ministry of Industry and Entrepreneurship Development Thilaka Jayasundara, along with officials from the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Industry and Entrepreneurship Development, participated in the discussion.

[PMD]

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Prime Minister meets the Amir of the State of Qatar and conveys condolences on the passing of the Father Emir

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Prime Minister Dr. Harini Amarasuriya, visited the State of Qatar to convey condolences on the passing of the Father Emir, at Lusail Palace in Doha on Wednesday  (15 July).

Upon her arrival, the Prime Minister was received by His Highness Sheikh Khalifa bin Hamad bin Khalifa Al Thani, Minister of Interior of the State of Qatar. The Prime Minister subsequently met with His Highness the Emir of the State of Qatar, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al-Thani.

During the meeting, Prime Minister Dr. Harini Amarasuriya conveyed to the Emir the deepest condolences of the Government and the people of Sri Lanka on the passing of the Father Emir, Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa Al Thani.

The occasion was attended by the Deputy Emir of the State of Qatar Sheikh Abdullah bin Hamad Al Thani; Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs,  Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al Thani;  Hassan bin Abdullah Al Ghanim, Speaker of the Shura Council; senior members of the Royal Family.

[Prime Minister’s Media Division]

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Current El Niño Status in Sri Lanka

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At present, El Niño conditions have developed and are classified as being at a weak level. Forecasts indicate a 63% probability of a very strong El Niño event developing during the period from November 2026 to January 2027. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), there is approximately a one-third probability that El Niño will remain below a very strong intensity.

Typical Climatic Conditions Associated with El Niño
Based on analyses of past El Niño events that occurred between 1950 and 2025:
• Rainfall during July and August may be below normal, particularly in the dry zone areas.
• From October onward, rainfall is generally expected to be above normal.
• If a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) develops, enhanced rainfall conditions may continue until December.

Sectors Requiring Attention
• Appropriate measures should be taken for water resource management during July and August.
• Increased rainfall expected from October onward may lead to floods and landslides, requiring preparedness and close monitoring. The forecasts are important for sectors such as, Agriculture /Water management /Livestock /Health /Energy /Other climate-sensitive sectors
• Attention should be paid to official information issued by the Department of Meteorology.

Actions by the Department of Meteorology
The Department of Meteorology continuously monitors the evolving situation and issues:
• Weekly and monthly seasonal forecasts and Monthly analyses of rainfall data to monitor meteorological drought conditions.
As weather conditions are influenced not only by El Niño but also by other climatic factors, updated forecasts and advisories are regularly shared with relevant stakeholder organizations (Irrigation/ Water Management Committee /Department of Agriculture/National Building Research Institute/Disaster Management Centre (DMC)/Ministry of Health /Sri Lanka Land Development Corporation…etc). The Department also provides technical support to the committee established through a Cabinet decision to address climate-related impacts. The Department’s monthly rainfall outlook for July to September 2026 is attached

Monthly Rainfall Forecasts for July, August and September 2026
Month Rainfall forecast
July 2026

During July 2026, there is a higher probability of having near normal rainfall across most parts of the Western and Southern Provinces. The remainder of the country is expected to experience below normal rainfall.

August 2026

There is a higher probability of having below normal rainfall across most parts of the country during month of August 2026.

September 2026

There is a possibility of above-normal rainfall across most parts of the Western and Southern Provinces, while near-normal rainfall is expected in the Sabaragamuwa Province. Below-normal rainfall is likely in the remaining areas during September 2026.

Note: These long-range forecasts may change due to strong day-to-day atmospheric variability associated with the movement of weather systems such as atmospheric disturbances, low-pressure areas, and depressions, as well as intra-seasonal oscillations such as the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO). Therefore, in addition to the weekly and monthly forecasts, it is important to pay attention to the Department’s official announcements, weather advisories and warnings, as well as the daily weather forecasts issued by the Department of Meteorology.

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