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CBSL continues accommodative monetary policy stance

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Monetary Policy Review: October 2020

The Monetary Board of the Central Bank of Sri Lanka, at its meeting held on 21 October 2020, decided to maintain the Standing Deposit Facility Rate (SDFR) and the Standing Lending Facility Rate (SLFR) of the Central Bank at their current levels of 4.50 per cent and 5.50 per cent, respectively, thereby continuing the prevailing accommodative monetary policy stance.

The Board noted the decline in overall market lending rates, following the unprecedented monetary easing measures taken by the Central Bank thus far during the year, and expects the broadbased downward adjustment in market lending rates to continue, thereby ensuring affordable credit flows to productive sectors of the economy in the prevailing low inflation environment.

Global monetary policy continues to remain accommodative as global growth prospects remain bleak with the resurgence of COVID-19 in many parts of the world

The global economy, as per the World Economic Outlook (WEO) of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) released in October 2020, is projected to contract by 4.4 per cent in 2020. The outlook for growth in 2020 is less severe than the IMF’s previous forecast, supported by large scale policy stimuli implemented worldwide. However, the recent surge in COVID-19 cases globally has prompted several countries to reimpose lockdowns, which may dampen global growth prospects.

Against this background, most central banks across the globe are expected to continue their accommodative monetary policy stance in the foreseeable future.

The Sri Lankan economy is expected to move along a faster recovery path, despite the latest surge in COVID-19 cases locally that could hamper near term growth prospects.

The release of GDP estimates for the second quarter of 2020 by the Department of Census and Statistics (DCS) has been delayed. It is likely that the second quarter of 2020 has recorded a greater contraction than in the first quarter, followed by a recovery in the third quarter of the year. However, as per the DCS, the unemployment rate, which was estimated at 5.7 per cent in the first quarter of 2020, has declined to 5.4 per cent in the second quarter. The level of employment has also remained broadly unchanged in the second quarter compared to the large decline reported for the first quarter. These suggest that economic activity has remained without much deterioration in the second quarter. Other developments observed in leading indicators and high frequency data since the relaxation of the countrywide lockdown measures suggest that Sri Lanka is on a path towards economic revival. The unexpected COVID-19 cluster that has emerged recently could somewhat affect this momentum in the near term, but the expeditious measures that are being taken by the government to contain the spread could limit this impact.

External sector remains resilient with improved liquidity in the foreign exchange market

Better than expected outcomes in the external sector, as reflected by the incoming data, are indicative of the resilience of the external sector amidst growing worldwide uncertainties triggered by the outbreak of COVID-19. Alongside the improvement in earnings from merchandise exports, restrictions imposed on the importation of non-essential goods and low crude oil prices helped narrow the trade deficit substantially during the nine months ending September 2020. Services exports, excluding the tourism sector, continued to record a healthy growth led by computer and logistic services related activities. Workers’ remittances continued to record a notable acceleration since June 2020. In the meantime, Sri Lanka successfully settled the International Sovereign Bond (ISB) of US dollars 1 billion matured in early October 2020, continuing the unblemished record on debt servicing. The exchange rate remained stable and the depreciation of the Sri Lankan rupee against the US dollar is limited to 1.5 per cent thus far during the year. In this background, the Central Bank continued to purchase a sizeable volume of foreign exchange from the domestic market. Gross official reserves were estimated at US dollars 6.7 billion at end September 2020, which provided an import cover of 4.6 months.

Inflation is expected to remain within the desired range

Headline inflation, based on the Colombo Consumer Price Index (CCPI), decelerated in September 2020, on a year-on-year basis, while there was some acceleration in the National Consumer Price Index (NCPI) based headline inflation due to the rise in food prices. Meanwhile, core inflation based on both CCPI and NCPI continued to remain low, reflecting subdued demand conditions. The recent increase in food prices is expected to be short-lived supported by domestic supply side developments as well as the recent reduction in prices of several essential goods. Accordingly, inflation is expected to remain broadly within the desired range of 4-6 per cent in the near term and over the medium term with appropriate policy measures.

Most market interest rates have declined, reflecting the impact of the measures taken by the Central Bank thus far during the year

In response to the monetary easing measures effected to bring down borrowing costs of businesses and households, both market deposit and lending rates adjusted notably so far during the year. The Average Weighted Prime Lending Rate (AWPR) declined to historic lows in recent weeks, while new lending rates also adjusted downward in line with the expectations of the Central Bank. The imposition of lending rate caps on selected financial products in August 2020 has also helped bring down the overall lending rates in the market. Further space remains for market lending rates to decline, particularly with the high level of excess liquidity in the money market, which is deposited with the Central Bank at the SDFR of 4.50 per cent at present.

Credit to the private sector picked up notably in August 2020 and the upward trend is expected to continue supported by low interest rates

Following the contractions recorded in the preceding three months, credit disbursed to the private sector expanded notably in August 2020, reflecting the impact of low lending rates as well as concessional credit schemes. The expansion of credit to the private sector is expected to continue in the period ahead, despite the recent rise in COVID-19 infections, which is expected to be short-lived. Meanwhile, the overall domestic credit continued to expand sharply driven by the substantial increase in credit to the public sector. Accordingly, the growth of broad money further accelerated in August 2020.

Policy rates maintained at current levels

In consideration of the current and expected macroeconomic developments highlighted above, the Monetary Board, at its meeting held on 21 October 2020, was of the view that the current accommodative monetary policy stance is appropriate. Accordingly, the Board decided to maintain the Standing Deposit Facility Rate (SDFR) and the Standing Lending Facility Rate (SLFR) of the Central Bank at their current levels of 4.50 per cent and 5.50 per cent, respectively. The Central Bank will continue to monitor domestic and global macroeconomic and financial market developments and take further measures appropriately to ensure that the economy promptly reverts to a sustained high real GDP growth path, while maintaining inflation in the 4-6 per cent range under its flexible inflation targeting framework.



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Mercantile Investments strengthens foundation for growth with oversubscribed Rs. 1.1 Bn Rights Issue

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Mercantile Investments & Finance PLC (MI Finance) has successfully concluded its Rights Issue, raising Rs. 1.1 billion in new capital. The Issue was oversubscribed, demonstrating a resounding confidence in the company’s strategy, performance, and long-term growth prospects, a company news release said.

As applications outpaced the initial share offering, the strong shareholder participation provided a firm endorsement of MI Finance’s direction and strengthened the foundation on which the company will build its next phase of growth.

The new fund infusion reinforces MI Finance’s capital base, enhances financial flexibility, and supports the company’s regulatory capital position. It also expands MI Finance’s capacity to serve customers and drives growth and expansion plans within Sri Lanka’s financial services sector.

With steadfast focus on long#term value creation, MI Finance is strongly positioned to seize new opportunities, continuing to deliver meaningful returns for customers, shareholders, and the economy.

Gerard Ondaatjie, Managing Director, MI Finance, expressed his appreciation for the continued trust and support placed in the organisation. He said “The strong response to our Rights Issue highlights confidence our shareholders place in MI Finance’s strategy and long-term vision. With a stronger financial foundation, we are well positioned to pursue new opportunities and deliver sustainable growth and lasting value for all stakeholders.”

The successful completion of the Rights Issue showcases MI Finance’s financial strength, the trust it commands and the commitment to sustainable, long-term growth as a stable and progressive financial institution.

First Capital Advisory Services (Pvt) Ltd acted as Advisor and Manager to the Issue, while SSP Corporate Services (Pvt) Ltd served as Registrar to the Issue.

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Focus on aviation technology, airline growth and tourism, says Prof. Sonal Fernando

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Prof Sonal Fernando Pic by Nishan S Priyantha

“Maximise value of existing assets rather than build new infrastructure”

By Saman Indrajith ✍️

Hettiarachchige Francis Adhista Sonal Fernando, who recently received an Honorary Professorship in Aviation Management from the University of California, Berkeley (Global), becoming the first Asian and reportedly one of only five recipients worldwide, says Sri Lanka should prioritise aviation technology, airline development and tourism over costly airport expansion projects.

In an interview with the Sunday Island, Prof. Fernando, a former Director of Airport and Aviation Services (Sri Lanka) and an aviation professional with more than two decades of experience, outlined what he described as a more strategic approach to developing the country’s aviation sector.

Having worked across a broad spectrum of aviation disciplines including passenger services, cargo operations, flight Operations, Training,  airline management and airport administration, Prof. Fernando said Sri Lanka’s future success depended less on constructing new infrastructure and more on maximising the value of existing assets.

Prof. Fernando said the honorary professorship was awarded in recognition of his contributions to the aviation industry and initiatives undertaken during his tenure at Airport and Aviation Services (Sri Lanka).

“My career has taken me through almost every department of the aviation industry, from checking in passengers and handling cargo to serving as a Pilot captain, flight instructor, chief executive officer and Director of Airport and Aviation Services (AASL).  That breadth of experience is relatively uncommon in the industry,” he said.

According to Prof. Fernando, Sri Lanka’s aviation sector recovered rapidly following the COVID-19 pandemic because of efforts to develop specialised aviation services rather than relying solely on passenger traffic.

He said one of the key proposals negotiated during his tenure was the establishment of an air cargo hub at Mattala International Airport, which had the potential to transform the facility into a regional logistics centre.

Another initiative involved plans to establish an international aviation training centre at Jaffna’s Palaly Airport.

Prof. Fernando said discussions had been held with the Royal Jordanian Air Academy, which he described as one of the world’s leading aviation training institutions, to establish operations in Jaffna with several aircraft and a multi-million-dollar investment.

“The project had the potential to attract students from South India, Singapore and other countries while generating valuable foreign exchange earnings for Sri Lanka,” he said.

Prof. Fernando expressed reservations about current proposals for extensive airport expansion projects, arguing that existing airport infrastructure was adequate to meet the country’s needs for the foreseeable future.

“Based on current trends, our airport capacity is sufficient for the next 20 to 25 years. Before spending billions on additional infrastructure, we need to focus on developing the airline industry itself,” he said.

Drawing comparisons with global aviation success stories, he pointed to Qatar’s strategy of first building a strong national carrier before undertaking major airport expansion.

“Resources would be better invested in strengthening SriLankan Airlines, improving tourism infrastructure and enhancing security and discipline across the country,” he said.

Prof. Fernando also criticised what he described as the increasing “militarisation” of civil aviation administration, arguing that airports should provide a welcoming and passenger-friendly environment.

“Civil aviation should be open and stress-free. Airports are the first impression visitors receive of a country, and the experience should reflect that,” he said.

He said efforts had previously been made to create a more accessible and less intimidating atmosphere at the country’s main international airport.

The aviation expert also raised concerns about the Harassment and Humiliation  treatment to some outbound travellers, particularly passengers who are travelling on a visit and holiday,

According to Prof. Fernando, passengers who possess valid travel documents should not be prevented from travelling based on assumptions regarding their intentions.

“If a traveller has a valid passport, visa and ticket, the authority to stop that person lies  with airline staff and  Immigration. Decisions should not be based on appearance or social background,” he said.

On tourism, Prof. Fernando said Sri Lanka should avoid attempting to replicate the models adopted by destinations such as Dubai and instead develop an identity rooted in its own strengths as an island nation.

“We cannot simply copy Dubai. The Maldives has succeeded not only because of its airport infrastructure but because of its discipline, security and the importance it places on visitors,” he said.

He argued that tourism promotion campaigns should focus more heavily on attracting high-spending travellers by showcasing the country’s premium tourism offerings.

“We should be promoting our luxury hospitality sector, gems, business-class travel and other high-value experiences. That is how we attract visitors who contribute significantly to the economy,” he said.

Looking ahead, Prof. Fernando said investment priorities should centre on advanced aviation technologies rather than additional buildings.

He cited Category III-C (CAT III-C) landing systems as an example of technology capable of significantly enhancing operational efficiency by enabling aircraft to land safely even in extremely poor visibility conditions.

“Such technology can improve airport performance and international competitiveness far more effectively than constructing another terminal building,” he said.

Prof. Fernando said the long-term success of Sri Lanka’s aviation industry would depend on informed leadership and strategic planning.

“What the industry needs are leaders who understand aviation and are committed to its development, rather than viewing it solely through the lens of construction and infrastructure projects,” he said.

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Veterans showcase class as Super Stars triumph

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Winning team with their supporters and trophies

Super Stars VFC emerged champions of the 21st consecutive nine-a-side football tournament organised by the Sri Lanka Soccer Masters’ Association, while Galle Legends FC finished as runners-up in the veteran football competition held recently at the Shalika Grounds, Narahenpita, and Campbell Park, Borella.

Association President Irshad Haq said the annual tournament attracted 34 teams from across the country and featured a total of 71 matches, underscoring the continued popularity of veteran football in Sri Lanka.

He noted that the tournament provided a competitive platform for former footballers to remain actively involved in the sport while fostering camaraderie among veteran players. Haq added that many former national-level footballers and recently retired players participated in the event, enhancing the quality of competition and offering spectators an opportunity to witness traditional football skills displayed at a high standard.

Runners up team with the Chief Guest

General Secretary Yoga Cruze said the tournament has become a landmark event on the local football calendar and continues to celebrate the contributions of former players to the sport. He said the Association remains committed to promoting veteran football and preserving the legacy of past football greats.

Tournament Committee Chairman P.G.P. Pieris said prize distribution and several special events were held during the tournament finale. The champions received cash awards together with a permanent trophy and the coveted challenge trophy, while the runners-up were also presented with cash prizes.

A special attraction at the event was an exhibition match involving veteran footballers over the age of 60. The match ended in a draw and the winner was decided by a coin toss.

Pieris said the tournament was organised not only to maintain competitive football among veterans but also to honour past legends of the game while providing fans with an entertaining and high-quality sporting spectacle.

Champions – Super Stars VFC: YML Jayathunga, Mohamed Iqbal, LAP Lakshitha, JR Pradeep Perera, M Mohamed Asmeer, SR Susil Pradeep, Mohamed Rikas, PR Sanjeewa Perera, MKJ Priyantha Perera, K Aruna Sampath, HMVR Perera (goalkeeper), RT Imtiyaz Raheem and WE Sarath de Alwis. Team Manager: Nazar Mohideen.

Runners-up – Galle Legends FC: PHN Pushpakumara, WA Nishantha, MS Fargan, BG Shiwanka, BPD Sudesh, MP Pradeep, HLR Jayalath, K Sirantha Kumara, ADD de Silva, AKR Priyanga and GAMA Indrajith.

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