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73rd Central Bank Annual Report gets ‘pretty honest’ about Sri Lanka’s economy

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 Says national policy package should be guarded from influences of changing political regimes

 Urges for actions to ensure the country will not suffer from a repeated debt rework episode

 Once debt restructuring negotiated, SL to resume debt servicing on a smaller scale

The seventy third Annual Report of the Monetary Board of the Central Bank of Sri Lanka released on 27 April 2023, offers candid and rare insights on the status of the country’s economy. It also professionally suggests the way forward for Sri Lankan authorities to tackle the country’s legacy issues, economic complexity and the debt restructuring process among other things, while pursuing the macro-fiscal adjustment programme under the IMF-EFF arrangement.

“The implementation of structural reforms focusing not only on restoring near term stability but also on rebuilding the nation with adequate safeguards and resilience in the post-debt restructuring and post-IMF bailout era is vitally important for permanent revival from the current economic crisis,” Central Bank’s Annual Report said.

“The persistent twin deficits experienced by Sri Lanka highlights the importance of addressing the BOP issues on a sustainable basis through a comprehensive national policy package formed in consultation with the relevant stakeholders and guarded from influences of changing political regimes. Further, non-debt creating foreign exchange generating sources need to be explored and encouraged, while reducing the need for financing of the current account deficit out of commercial external debt,” it said.

The Report pointed out that according to international experiences, the level of commitment by authorities towards the success of a reform programme is a key determinant of the outcome of debt restructuring and subsequent recovery of the economy.

“Moreover, the ongoing efforts to resolve the economic issues, including the debt restructuring process, and the macro-fiscal adjustment programme under the IMF-EFF arrangement are necessary conditions for the way forward, though these alone would not guarantee a permanent solution to the country’s deep rooted structural weaknesses and macroeconomic complications unless the financing mix of government budget deficits and external current account deficits is augmented with non-debt creating financing in the period ahead,” it emphasized.

Referring to Post-Debt Restructuring Policy Priorities for Strengthening External Sector Balance, the report pointed out:

“Sri Lanka has been experiencing persistent external current account deficits mainly driven by large deficits in the merchandise trade account and primary income account over the years. Although the trade in services account and secondary income account (mainly workers’ remittances) recorded surpluses, these surpluses have not been adequate to cushion the impact of ever widening deficits in the merchandise trade and primary income accounts in the current account.”

“Once debt restructuring perimeters are negotiated and agreed upon with Sri Lanka’s official and private creditors, the country will resume debt servicing, but on a smaller scale, with extended maturities. This first ever debt restructuring effort would offer a once in a lifetime opportunity for the country to correct past mistakes and decisively plan future actions to ensure that the country will not suffer from a repeated debt restructuring episode, as experienced by some countries.”

“This stresses the fact that not only the debt restructuring process, but also the way forward in the post restructuring economy should be well planned and executed to strengthen the country’s fiscal and external positions and build resilience in the period ahead. From the 1950s to 2010 there were more than 600 incidents of sovereign debt restructuring globally involving 95 countries (Das, Papaioannou, and Trebesch, 2012). Generally, it is expected that following successful debt restructuring, a country would manage the debt sustainably going forward and recover gradually.”

“However, out of those, not all countries were able to sustainably manage their debt after a successful debt restructuring process and those who failed experienced further defaults subsequently. There are several reasons why some countries fail to reach their potential level of economic growth and ensure external sector stability through debt restructuring, as described below:

1. Unfavourable economic conditions: The external environment and broader economic conditions of the country during the rebuilding phase are instrumental in determining the outcome of debt restructuring. For example, if the global economy is slowing down or if major trading partners are experiencing an economic contraction during the post debt restructuring phase, the country may struggle to achieve its potential level of growth and Balance of Payments (BOP) sustainability.

There are early signs that global economic stresses could heighten in 2023 amidst tight monetary and financial market conditions, making the post-debt restructuring recovery of Sri Lanka challenging.

2. Implementation challenges: Given the diversity of external lenders and their interests as well as geopolitical concerns, the negotiation and implementation phases of debt restructuring could be complex. This could make reaching agreements with creditors challenging, thereby raising the riskof delays due to lengthy negotiations. A protracted restructuring process could further erode investor confidence and be a major predicament for regaining stability of the external sector.

3. Insufficient policy measures: Recovery in the economy following debt restructuring involves adopting a policy combination that drives the economy towards a sustainable growth path in the short and medium term with emphasis on macro-fiscal reforms and required adjustments. However, if the policy responses are not planned out effectively or lack coordination in implementation, the desired outcome may not be achieved. Considering the legacy issues faced by the external sector of Sri Lanka, the reforms package needs to be sufficiently robust.

4. Political instability: The recovery in the economy following a debt restructuring process essentially depends on the success of the implementation of the reform package agreed upon with creditors and adherence to targets set out therein. As the major economic reforms lack popularity, governments come under severe pressure to implement such reforms and would possibly give into lobbying from the constituency.

Political stability would help rebuild confidence in the economy among the stakeholders, including investors, multilateral and bilateral lenders, and creditors. Further, political instability may lead to policy inconsistency, which could be a major setback to implementing sustainable macroeconomic adjustments. Thus, post restructuring economic revival and resilience would be conditional on the continuation of the political resolve as well as public support for reforms.

5. Weak institutions: Weak institutions that lead to deterioration of the rule of law, lack of transparency and accountability, and increased corruption could create an environment that is unfavourable to economic growth, while limiting the effectiveness of policy measures and eroding investor confidence.

Against this backdrop, it will be pertinent to form a vigorous policy framework that aims at restoring stability in the external sector, while creating a conducive environment for the economic activities to thrive, the report said.



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No shortcut to building Sri Lanka’s reserves: CBSL Governor

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Dr. P. Nandalal Weerasinghe

by Sanath Nanayakkare

“There is no shortcut to sustainable reserve accumulation,” Central Bank Governor Dr. P. Nandalal Weerasinghe said yesterday, warning that rebuilding Sri Lanka’s foreign-exchange buffers must be underpinned by sound economic fundamentals, policy credibility and institutional discipline rather than short-term fixes.

Addressing the inaugural Reserve Management Conference 2026 in Colombo, Dr.Weerasinghe said the task of building reserves had become increasingly difficult as geopolitical fragmentation, trade tensions, sanctions, volatile commodity prices, changing interest-rate cycles and rapidly shifting capital flows reshape the global financial environment.

For Sri Lanka, which experienced the consequences of depleted reserves during the 2022 economic crisis, the issue is particularly important.

“When reserves become critically low,” the Governor said, the consequences extend well beyond the Central Bank’s balance sheet. Imports become constrained, debt servicing becomes difficult, exchange-rate pressures intensify, inflationary pressures can increase and confidence deteriorates.

Most importantly, he said, the policy space available to respond to further shocks becomes severely constrained.

Foreign reserves should therefore be viewed not simply as financial assets but as a country’s “first line of defence” against external shocks, providing confidence, policy space and the ability to meet essential external obligations.

But Weerasinghe cautioned that reserve accumulation was not a linear process. A country could build reserves during favourable periods only to see them drawn down rapidly by an external shock.

The more important questions, therefore, were how resilient the reserves were, how accessible they were, how quickly they could be mobilised and whether they would be sufficient for the next shock.

Sri Lanka has made considerable progress since the crisis, with macroeconomic stabilisation and structural reforms strengthening the external sector compared with the difficult period of 2022–2023, he said.

However, sustainable reserve accumulation could not be separated from the broader macroeconomic policy framework.

Foreign exchange generated through exports, tourism, remittances, services and capital inflows ultimately provides the foundation for stronger reserves. When foreign-exchange inflows exceed outflows, reserves can rise, but maintaining that process while preserving exchange-rate flexibility, price stability, external debt-servicing capacity and market confidence remains a delicate policy challenge.

Dr.Weerasinghe warned against relying excessively on central-bank intervention, monetary expansion or external borrowing to rebuild buffers. Such measures could distort market signals, generate inflationary pressures or simply create future debt-service obligations.

“The most sustainable reserve accumulation strategy is therefore not simply to acquire reserves,” he said. “It is to build an economy that naturally generates and retains foreign exchange.”

The Governor said geopolitical risk had now become an integral part of reserve management. Strategic competition among major economies, sanctions and financial fragmentation were forcing reserve managers to reconsider the risks associated with particular currencies, jurisdictions and financial markets.

Although the US dollar continues to dominate international trade, finance and global reserves, diversification has a role to play. But diversification for its own sake could reduce liquidity and operational efficiency, he cautioned.

For official reserves, safety and liquidity must remain paramount, particularly because reserves may have to be deployed precisely when financial markets are under severe stress.

Sri Lanka’s vulnerability to energy and geopolitical shocks also makes the issue particularly acute. As an energy-importing country, a sharp rise in global oil prices can rapidly increase the import bill. At the same time, geopolitical tensions can weaken tourism and other sources of foreign exchange, producing the potentially damaging combination of rising outflows and declining inflows.

Climate-related disasters could create similar pressures by disrupting agriculture, infrastructure, tourism and imports.

Dr. Weerasinghe said reserve adequacy should therefore no longer be judged by a single number or conventional indicator such as import cover. Short-term external liabilities, debt-service requirements, capital-flow volatility, exchange-rate flexibility, contingent financing and the probability and magnitude of external shocks should also be considered.

He also highlighted the growing role of gold, technology and artificial intelligence in reserve management, while stressing that innovation should never compromise safety and liquidity.

Ultimately, the Governor said, reserves were not managed simply to earn a return but to protect economic stability and preserve confidence.

“Buffers must be built before they are needed,” he said, “because by the time an external crisis arrives, it may already be too late to begin building them”.

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Price of war keenly felt by investor community

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By Hiran H. Senewiratne

The escalation of tensions in the Middle East and the surge in oil prices are continuing to negatively impacted investor sentiment, market analysts said yesterday.

The All Share Price Index went down by 93.55 points, while the S and P SL20 declined by 23.8 points.

Turnover stood at Rs 1.45 billion with five crossings. Those crossings were; Sampath Bank 3 million shares traded to the tune of Rs 428 million; its shares traded at Rs 142.50, Commercial Bank 256,000 shares crossed for Rs 49 million; its shares traded at Rs 204.50, Digital Mobility Solutions 190,000 shares crossed to the tune of Rs 30 million; its shares fetched Rs 158, Overseas Realty 493,000 shares crossed for Rs 26 million; its shares sold at Rs 53 and Royal Ceramics 469,000 shares crossed to the tune of Rs 23 million; its shares traded at Rs 48.50.

In the retail market companies that mainly contributed to the turnover were; Commercial Credit and Finance Rs 38 million (376,000 shares traded), Renuka Agri Rs 33 million (2.8 million shares traded), Sierra Cables 32 million (925,000 shares traded), Singer SriLanka Rs 31 million (359,000 shares traded), Dialog Axiata Rs 31 million (637,000 shares traded) and Access Engineering Rs 30 million (383,000 shares traded). During the day 35 million share volumes changed hands in 13380 transactions.

It is said that banking sector counters, especially Commercial Bank, led the market,which contributed close to half of the total turnover. Apart from that other sectors, including manufacturing, telecom and construction counters performed well.

Meanwhile, Melstacorp (down 1.32 percent at Rs 187.00 ), Royal Ceramics Lanka (down 1.22 percent at Rs 48.50 ), Hemas Holdings (down 1.27 percent at Rs 31.20 ), and Dipped Products (down 1.50 percent at Rs 59.00) were top negative contributors.

Yesterday the rupee was quoted at Rs 328.60/70 to the US dollar in the spot market from Rs 328.60/80 the previous day, while bond yields were quoted steady to lower, dealers said.

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Softlogic Glomark’s “Better Life” campaign wins Gold at Dragons of Sri Lanka 2026

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Softlogic GLOMARK, one of Sri Lanka’s leading supermarket chains, has been recognised at the Dragons of Sri Lanka Awards 2026, winning Gold and Black Dragon for Loyalty & Acquisition and Product Relaunch. The recognition reflects a deliberate strategic shift in how GLOMARK engages with the evolving needs of Sri Lankan consumers. Rather than competing primarily on convenience or price, GLOMARK built a purpose-led proposition around “A Better Life for Your Home,” repositioning the everyday grocery shop as an opportunity to make healthier, more considered choices for customers and their families.

Launched nationally as “Better Life,” the campaign brought this proposition to life through a vibrant commercial and memorable jingle, before extending the idea beyond advertising and into the shopping experience itself. Trained employees, curated product ranges and a re-aligned store environment were designed to make better choices more visible, accessible and easier to adopt.

The strategy translated into measurable business results. Active loyalty customers grew by 21%, footfall increased by 33%, while GLOMARK’s most frequent shoppers grew by 50%. The results demonstrate that building relevance and trust can create stronger customer relationships than competing solely on price or convenience.

Softlogic GLOMARK CEO Terry O’Connor said: “This award signals that our long-term strategy is working. We set out to build a brand customers choose because it genuinely improves their lives, not simply because it is convenient or cheap. Seeing that reflected in both industry recognition and real business growth confirms that we are on the right path and strengthens our confidence as we continue investing in GLOMARK’s future.”

Softlogic GLOMARK Head of Marketing Chamindri Pilimatalauwe said: “Our customers are increasingly making more deliberate, health-conscious, better choices, and this recognition confirms that our brand strategy is responding to that shift. We believe that when we curate every aisle and guide customer’ through it, we are also helping curate the lives of our customers. In that sense, we are more than a supermarket. We have the ability to influence how Sri Lanka lives, and we take that responsibility seriously. ගෙට Better Life’ was never intended to be a single campaign moment. It represents a fundamental repositioning of what GLOMARK stands for, designed to inspire and earn loyalty rather than simply drive footfall.”

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