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2024 global credit outlook is driven by four key themes: Fitch Ratings

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The 2024 global credit outlook is driven by four key themes, Fitch Ratings says in a new report. The first is a continued feedthrough of sustained higher interest rates on demand, liquidity, funding and asset quality. Second, an expected sharp slowdown of the US economy. Third is global asset-quality deterioration. Finally, heightened financial market and cross-asset tail risks from potential liquidity events, elevated leverage and geopolitics.

We expect global macroeconomic growth to slow in 2024 as the monetary transmission to the real economy in the US takes greater effect, the property crisis weighs on consumption and investment in China, and European growth only marginally improves. This general macroeconomic deceleration, combined with elevated interest rates underscores what will continue to be a challenging environment for global credit. Our base case includes a monetary policy pivot in the US and eurozone in 2H24, but with policy rates only being cut to 4.75% and 3.75%, respectively.

Credit pressures will be disproportionately felt by leveraged issuers at the lower end of the rating spectrum. We expect leveraged loan and high-yield default rates to rise and lower-rated emerging market sovereigns are likely to see further defaults. Most structured finance asset performance outlooks are deteriorating and over a third of sectors (weighted by size of issuance) have deteriorating 2024 sector outlooks.

Despite the persistent challenging macro-credit environment, the outlook for ratings at the portfolio level has improved. The net Outlook balance has risen for the third consecutive year for both investment-grade and sub-investment-grade credit. Structured finance is a good example, where there is a divergence between our expectation for continued deterioration in asset performance and ratings resilience, with most of the portfolio on Stable Outlook.



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JICA and JFTC support Sri Lanka’s drive for economic growth through a fair and competitive market

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The Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) and the Japan Fair Trade Commission (JFTC) have expressed their support for policy reforms and institutional enhancements aimed at ensuring the supply of high-quality goods and services in Sri Lanka while safeguarding both consumers and producers.

This was discussed at a meeting held on Wednesday (12) at the Presidential Secretariat between representatives of these organisations and the Secretary to the President, Dr. Nandika Sanath Kumanayake.

During the discussion, the representatives emphasized that establishing fairness in trade would protect both consumers and producers while fostering a competitive market in the country. They also emphasized how Japan’s competitive trade policies contributed to its economic progress, explaining that such policies not only help to protect consumer rights but also stimulate innovation.

The secretary to the president noted that this year’s budget has placed special emphasis on the required policy adjustments to promote fair trade while elevating Sri Lanka’s market to a higher level. He also briefed the representatives on these planned reforms.

The meeting was attended by Senior Additional Secretary to the President, Russell Aponsu, JICA representatives Tetsuya Yamada, Arisa Inada, Yuri Horrita, and Namal Ralapanawa; and JFTC representatives Y. Sakuma, Y. Asahina, Y. Fukushima, and M. Takeuchi.

[PMD]

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World seen to be at crucial juncture as competition mounts for strategic resources

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Mayank Aggarwal; ‘world at critical point

By Ifham Nizam

The intersection of climate change, energy security and global politics has never been more crucial, with geopolitical conflicts increasingly driven by competition over fossil fuels and critical minerals. Mayank Aggarwal, an energy and climate expert from The Reporters’ Collective, highlights this in his work, ‘Geopolitical Energy Chessboard’.

“Climate change and energy security are two of the most pressing global challenges, Aggarwal explains. “Urgent climate action is needed to mitigate its impact, but reducing fossil fuel use and transitioning to cleaner energy is a politically charged issue, he told The Island Financial Review.

His research highlights the complex web of energy politics, particularly in South Asia, where one in four people on earth reside. “South Asia is a major importer of fossil fuels and its energy security is critical. But the region also lacks a comprehensive dialogue framework to address climate and energy challenges collectively, he notes.

Aggarwal emphasizes that energy conflicts are not just national concerns but extend to the global stage. “From Libya and Iraq to Ukraine and Venezuela, conflicts over oil, gas, coal and critical minerals are shaping international relations. These disputes threaten economic stability and development goals worldwide.”

Despite the urgent need for a clean energy transition, political and economic interests delay global cooperation. “Countries are pulling out of climate agreements, favoring bilateral deals that often sideline developing nations. While global clean energy transition is essential, the geopolitical hurdles remain significant, Aggarwal warns.

He calls for a “Just Energy Transition” that ensures energy security and independence while engaging communities in decision-making. “We need regional cooperation, transparent negotiations for resource-rich areas and strong political will to drive climate and energy discussions at all levels, he concludes.

As the world grapples with escalating climate disasters and energy crises, Aggarwal’s insights highlight the urgent need for a balanced, just, and cooperative approach to energy politics.

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SEC Sri Lanka engages in interactive knowledge-sharing forum with University of Ruhuna

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Senior Professor Hareendra Dissabandara, Chairman of the SEC (L) / Tushara Jayaratne, Deputy Director General of the SEC (R)

The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) of Sri Lanka recently participated in the Capital Market Forum 2025, organized by the Department of Accountancy and the Department of Finance of the Faculty of Management and Finance at the University of Ruhuna, in collaboration with the Colombo Stock Exchange (CSE). This interactive knowledge-sharing forum aims to enhance financial literacy and promote capital market participation among undergraduates and academics.

A key highlight of the forum was the workshop on “Nurturing Future Investors: The Role of Capital Markets in Personal and Economic Growth,” which featured distinguished speakers, including Senior Professor Hareendra Dissabandara, Chairman of the SEC, and Tushara Jayaratne, Deputy Director General of the SEC.

Senior Professor Hareendra Dissabandara delivered a compelling lecture on the crucial role of capital markets in fostering economic development. He emphasized how capital markets facilitate efficient capital allocation and contribute to long-term economic stability. A key focus of his discussion was the significance of capital formation as a sustainable alternative to debt financing for government projects. He illustrated this by comparing the market capitalization of a leading Sri Lankan company with the costs of several major government initiatives.

Professor Dissabandara highlighted the historical reliance on borrowing for infrastructure development in Sri Lanka, leading to fiscal imbalances, high-interest burdens, and economic vulnerabilities. He underscored the importance of equity financing in business sustainability, emphasizing that an efficient financial market channels surplus funds from households, institutions, and foreign investors into businesses and government projects. He explained that for over 70 years, successive governments have relied on borrowing to fund infrastructure and development, causing fiscal imbalances, rising interest burdens, high taxation, and economic vulnerabilities. He also noted that corporate professionals often overlook the importance of equity financing for sustainable growth.

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