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Midweek Review

US-China power struggle: Impact on Sri Lanka

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2021 developments

By Shamindra Ferdinando

Former President and SLFP leader Maithripala Sirisena, MP, was a notable absentee at the Government Party Leaders’ meeting at the Presidential Secretariat, on Dec 25th. Twice President, Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa presided over the meeting. President Gotabaya Rajapaksa, who hadn’t obtained the membership of the SLPP (though he was that party’s nominee for 2019 presidential poll) was present at the three-hour long discussion that dealt with the current situation.

Tackling the Covid-19 situation, both local and foreign debt obligations and restoration of financial stability are formidable challenges, the government and all other political parties represented in the parliament should be concerned about. They cannot absolve themselves of the responsibility for the current instability in every sector.

The Dec 25th discussion covered the rampaging Covid-19 pandemic, the simmering crisis over the cremation of Covid-19 Muslim victims, long-delayed Provincial Council polls, fresh threat posed by armyworm, how some officials exploited the absence of PC polls et al. Over two hours into the meeting, former CPSL General Secretary and ex-Minister D.E.W. Gunasekera sought approval from President Gotabaya Rajapaksa to speak on a couple of issues.

Gunasekera received an invitation to the important government group self-evaluation in spite of him giving up the Communist Party General Secretary post on August 30, 2020 to pave the way for Dr. G. Weerasinghe.

The veteran Communist didn’t mince his words when he drew the attention of the top government leadership to the growing danger in Western powers exploiting the cremation of all Covid-19 victims as part of their overall strategy meant to undermine Sri Lanka, the rapidly deteriorating economic situation here, and the need to take the public into confidence and what the electorate expected from the SLPP government in the wake of the sweeping 2019 presidential election victory. Gunasekera also questioned how Asanga Abeygoonasekera, a civilian attached to the Defence Ministry, took an extremely hostile stand on China in a recent article carried in the state media. Gunasekera alleged that such a hasty stand could be severely detrimental to the country against the backdrop of continuing US-China confrontation at regional and global level.

None of those present therein responded to Gunasekera’s concerns. The warning issued at the party leaders’ meeting was nothing but a stark reminder of the daunting challenges the country faced in 2021.

Gunasekera’s awakening call should jolt the government to take stock of the situation and take tangible measures to address the issues. One-time COPE (Committee on Public Enterprises) Chairman Gunasekera’s unpalatable advice to explain the dire economic situation, to the people, must have caused quite a stir among those present.

No less a person than President Gotabaya Rajapaksa, without hesitation, has acknowledged the difficulties faced by the country as a result of the Covid-19 eruption. It would be pertinent to point out that the President, on April 29, 2020, told the then Acting Ambassador and Chargé d’affaires of the Chinese Embassy, in Colombo, Hu Wei, that due to the nose-diving of the global economy Sri Lanka lost its key income generating sources, like the apparel industry and tourism. The President’s Office quoted Rajapaksa as having said that it might take a considerable time for the global economy to recover, hence the long-time impact on Sri Lanka.

At the time President Rajapaksa made that statement, the country was coping with the first Covid-19 outbreak better than most countries, due to prompt military-like reaction to it.

The situation was brought under control by June. However, former Minister Gunasekera has issued the warning at a time the country was struggling to overcome the far more deadly Covid-19 second wave. The economy is in tatters with the bankrupt Opposition seeking to exploit, even the good work being done by the government, to its advantage. Despite the national economy having suffered irreparable damage, all political parties continue to play politics with the issue at hand.

The second Covid-19 eruption happened in the first week of October 2020. The government owed an explanation to the public as to how the second outbreak happened. In the absence of proper inquiry into widespread allegations that Covid-19 eruption may have originated at Brandix apparel facility in Minuwangoda, Attorney General Dappula de Livera, PC, issued specific instructions to the then Acting IGP C.D. Wickremaratne on Oct 27, Oct 29 and Nov 05 as regards the inquiry. The President’s Counsel directed the police to investigate negligence on the part of Brandix, and government officials, in what he called the creation of the ‘Brandix cluster.’

The public is yet to be informed of the outcome, or at least progress, of the investigation. Public Security Minister, retired Rear Admiral Sarath Weerasekera should look into the status of the CID probe. A deeply concerned AG went to the extent of personally briefing the investigation team before the commencement of the inquiry. Most importantly, the AG stressed to the Acting IGP his (AG’s) legitimate duty and responsibility to issue instructions to the investigators, personally.

Against the backdrop of a much deteriorated economy, the government should establish how the second wave started. The government cannot turn a blind eye or conveniently forget the origins of the Covid-19 eruption. A really silly attempt was made by interested parties to blame the Covid-19 eruption on Ukrainian nationals. They also tried to pin the blame on members of a private airline crew who stayed at Hotel Ramada, Seeduwa, as well as group of technicians invited by the Air Force to inspect its AN 32s before them being dispatched to Ukraine for overhaul.

Let there be clarity and genuine understanding in this matter. The Opposition, the civil society and the media should push the SLPP government to bring the investigation to an early successful conclusion. The inordinate delay in finalizing the inquiry, or attempts to sweep it under the carpet, will only make matters worse.

Before we move onto other matters, the SLPP’s thinking on Provincial Council polls, too, should be examined. Several ministers, including Pavithra Wanniarachchi and Dayasiri Jayasekera, emphasized the need to conduct the much-delayed PC polls. However, some sections of the government are strongly opposed to the PC polls, in addition to the nine-member Expert Committee, headed by Romesh de Silva, PC, entrusted with the far more important and crucial task of formulating a new Constitution for the country. The proposal to conduct the PC polls under the ‘old system’ by moving an amendment in Parliament as suggested by the Chairman of the Election Commission, Nimal Punchihewa, can be quite disastrous as far as the formulation of constitutional proposals is concerned.

 

New Year wishes

Hiru’s main news bulletin on January 1, 2021, included statements issued by President Gotabaya Rajapaksa, PM Mahinda Rajapaksa and various others. Among them was President’s Counsel de Livera, who had followed an unprecedented path never even dreamt by any of his predecessor Attorneys General. Have you ever heard of a previous AG, on both print and electronic media, so much?

Addressing the AG Department employees, in Sinhala, De Livera said that as a functioning institution the department should definitely make a difference. But, making a difference wasn’t sufficient. The people should be able to realize and feel the difference. Livera emphasized the need to perform their duties and responsibilities in such a way, the public would know what was going on.

The New Year portends a series of challenges. The Office of the President, the Legislature and Judiciary face the daunting challenge of navigating a safer passage as the country faces both external and internal obstacles. Former Minister Gunasekera, in his own style, has reminded the powers that be of the need to identify major issues at hand and take remedial measures without delay. But, will there be political will to tackle the contentious issues?

The much-touted 20th Amendment, enacted in late Oct. 2020, hadn’t restored the desired political stability. The SLPP repeatedly assured that the 20th Amendment would be the panacea for all ills caused by the 19th Amendment, passed with an overwhelming 2/3 majority, in Parliament, on April 28, 2015. All those who had voted for the 19th Amendment, voted for the 20th Amendment whereas Maithripala Sirisena skipped the vote.

 

A silly strategy

Having backed the 19th Amendment to the hilt and prevailing on doubters in the UPFA to back it, Sirisena, now an ordinary lawmaker representing the Polonnaruwa District, excused himself from voting. However, 13 other SLFP lawmakers elected and appointed (Dr. Suren Raghavan) voted for the 20th Amendment. The SLFP group in the SLPP government is the second largest in the coalition. The SLFP is quite displeased over the way the SLPP managed coalition politics. As part of the SLFP strategy, the party sounded to the SLPP that it might go it alone at the next PC polls. Sirisena explained his party’s stance on several issues, including the possibility of contesting PC polls on its own devolution and the rights of the minorities, in an interview with Meera Srinivasan, The Hindu correspondent in Colombo. Even if the SLFP finally decides to go it alone, it is unlikely to pose a threat to the powerful SLPP, now in control of the vast majority of Local Government bodies, the Parliament and the Office of the President. The SLPP is unlikely to succumb to the SLFP tactics, regardless of Sirisena’s rhetoric and that of its General Secretary Dayasiri Jayasekera.

Let us reproduce the relevant section from The Hindu interview, posted on Dec 30, 2020, and updated on the following day. The Hindu Q: You recently remarked that the SLFP faced a “huge injustice” in the parliamentary elections and have hinted at possibly contesting the Provincial Council elections separately. Would you do that?

Maithripala Sirisena:

“We were treated unfairly when the candidates were picked ahead of the general elections in August 2020. Our party didn’t get a slot in either Kalutara or Nuwara-Eliya districts. In Gampaha, we were given only one. In Kurunegala, we were given only two slots. In the districts we are strong, we weren’t given a fair number of slots. We had asked for 30 candidates. Had we been given 30 slots in the last general election, we would have got at least 25 in Parliament. They [ruling party] organized political attacks on our candidates who had been nominated. So, while we still look forward to contesting the Provincial Council elections as a coalition, we insist on the fair share of seats due to us. If we get that, we will have no problem going to polls together with the government. If there is no fair treatment, our party will decide on a solo journey. We are ready for both options.”

The SLFP is in a pathetic situation. Formerly the major alternate political power, the SLFP, though being represented by 14 lawmakers in the current Parliament, is desperate. Of the 14-member group, only one is elected from the Jaffna District (Angajan Ramanathan) contested on the SLFP ticket (hand symbol). In other words, both the SLFP and the UNP, the two major political parties in the country, are reduced to one lawmaker each, elected under their own symbol. The humiliating and debilitating electoral setbacks suffered by UNP leader Ranil Wickremesinghe, and SLFP leader Maithripala Sirisena, caused permanent damage to the two parties. The emergence of the SLPP (145 elected members) and the Samagi Jana Balavegaya (SJB/54 members) should be examined against the backdrop of dilution of the UNP and the SLFP. Would it be too harsh, if one called for examination of the demise of those parties? The failure on the part of the UNP to resolve its leadership crisis, even five months after the last embarrassing defeat, is a grim reminder of its plight. The continuing disagreement on who should fill the only National List slot secured by the party at the last general election has further undermined the party. The party Constitution is silent on filling National List vacancies. In other words, if Wickremesinghe is so desired, he can keep the vacancy till the current term ends. The Expert Committee formulating the new Constitution should propose remedial measures.

The main Opposition SJB, too, is divided over policy. SJB leader Sajith Premadasa and its partner Rauff Hakeem are struggling to cope with dissidents. Over half a dozen lawmakers, elected on the SJB ticket, and one of its National List MPs Diana Gamage, voted for the 20th Amendment, much to their embarrassment.

The SLPP must realize though the disillusioned political Opposition doesn’t pose a challenge, the Covid-19 and a plethora of other issues threatened to overwhelm the administration.

 

Destabilized by debt

The China-US clash is perhaps one of the major issues Sri Lanka should be seriously worried about. With the growing US-India nexus entering a new phase, vis-a-vis Chinese challenge, Sri Lanka is under heavy pressure to join the US-led strategic coalition. Indo-Pacific Defense FORUM, in a recent edition, extensively dealt with the Chinese challenge and counter measures that were being taken (Volume 45, Issue 1, 2020). The edition is a must read for our decision makers and members of Parliament. Under a section titled Setbacks to OBOR (One Belt, One Road), the US Indo –Pacific Command categorized Sri Lanka and the Maldives as countries destabilized by debt.

The MOC (Memorandum of Cooperation) entered into in late May 2019 by the yahapalana administration with India and Japan on the ECT (East Container Terminal) at the Colombo harbour should be examined against the US-led global coalition built against China. Contrary to promises made in the run-up to the 2019 presidential and 2020 parliamentary polls, the SLPP is inclined to go ahead with the project. Against the backdrop of what can be certainly described as an economic downturn, even far more serious than during the height of the war, and intense pressure over the 99-year leasing of the H’tota port to China, the SLPP government may not have a way out of what can be safely called ECT imbroglio.

National Freedom Front (NFF) leader Wimal Weerawansa MP, raised the finalization of the proposed agreement on ECT at the recent government party leaders’ meet. Weerawansa strongly opposed the deal on the ECT. His erstwhile colleagues in the JVP, too, are at least ostensibly opposed to the Indian role. They have quite conveniently forgotten that the original agreement was moved by President Sirisena’s government, which the JVP helped to install in 2015 and thereafter the comrades propped up that government nicely from behind the scene. The current crop of JVP Leaders no doubt came up in the aftermath of the then UNP government and its death squads wiping out the cream of the party and its leadership barring one, who managed to escape to India at the time.

A hard hitting statement issued by the National Joint Committee (NJC), carried in the Dec 30, 2020 edition of The Island, took a pretty hard stand on the SLPP move. Finely drafted statement flayed the government, the strongest warning issued by the NJC since the last presidential election.

Regardless of the US leaving Sri Lanka out of the MCC (Millennium Challenge Corporation) Compact recently over the latter’s hesitant approach, Washington continues to eye the country firmly. The US has already finalized ACSA (Access and Cross Servicing Agreement) in August 2017 though it was not successful with SOFA (Status of Forces Agreement).

In spite of repeated assurances given by Sri Lanka, Western powers remained seriously concerned about growing Chinese presence in Sri Lanka. In addition to the H’tota port, secured during the Yahapalana administration, China runs a major operation within the Colombo harbour. Set up during the UPFA administration, Colombo International Container Terminals Ltd., (CICT) is a joint venture Company between China Merchants Port Holdings Company Limited and Sri Lanka Ports Authority (SLPA). CICT is a listed blue chip company in the Hong Kong stock exchange. While H’tota lease covers a 99-year period, CICT agreement is for a 35-year Build Operate and Transfer operation. China holds 85% of the partnership while the balance pittance of 15% is being held by SLPA.

The Geneva sessions, in late February-March, can turn nastier with Western powers stepping up pressure on Sri Lanka over her decision to quit the 2015 Geneva Resolution. It would be important to keep in mind that those countries might gang up against Sri Lanka over her relationship with China and adopt a common stand in Geneva. That is the undeniable truth. As far as Sri Lanka is concerned human rights issue is nothing but a key element in their overall strategy meant to browbeat the country.

Some key recent happenings in Europe like the departure of the UK from the EU obviously with the intention to firmly align with its colonial cousins, like the US, Australia and Canada, the determination of Europe to complete Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline with Russia despite dire warnings from Washington (once completed, it is set to significantly increase Russian gas supplies to Germany), and even the recent signing of a free trade deal by EU with China despite Trump trying to line them up against Beijing are worthy fissures that might stand in good stead for us.

The growing hostility between China and India as well as the latter joining the US project against China certainly increase pressure on Sri Lanka, now in an unenviable position. Waste, corruption and irregularities in every sector and the failure on the part of Parliament to ensure financial discipline surely weakened the country, thereby paving the way for aggressive foreign interventions.



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Midweek Review

US paying the price for disregarding military advice

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March 4: General Dan Caine addressing the Operation 'Epic Fury' media briefing (pic courtesy official website)

Jayasekera

Sri Lanka recently sought Saudi assistance to introduce advance radar technology, capable of detecting approaching targets and drone capability to meet aerial threats. On behalf of the NPP government, that request was made by Deputy Defence Minister Maj. Gen. (retd) Aruna Jayasekera when he met Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al-Ghribi, Commander of the Royal Saudi Naval Forces, on the sidelines of the World Defence Show 2026 in Saudi Arabia, in February, this year. They also discussed the possibility of Saudi ships visiting Colombo.

Jayasekera also sought training opportunities for SLAF in Saudi Arabia when he met Lt. Gen. Mazyad bin Sulaiman Al-Amro, Commander of the Royal Saudi Air Defence Forces. Jayasekera discussed with Vice Admiral Fahad Al Ghofaily, Deputy Chief of General Staff, the possibility of securing Saudi assistance to surveillance and deep sea operational capabilities of the Navy.

Saudi Arabia has been repeatedly hit by Iran during its counter offensive. In fact, Iran stepped up attacks in the wake of the US bombing of Kharg Island, a major Iranian oil facility. It would be pertinent to mention that Admiral Steve “Web” Koehler, Commander of the US Pacific Fleet, visited New Delhi and Colombo, less than 10 days before the outbreak of war, and here he met both Minister Jayasekera and Defence Secretary Air Vice Marshal (retd) Sampath Thuyakontha. It was Koehler’s second visit after the change of government in Sept. 2024. Don’t forget that it was Koehler’s command that alerted Sri Lanka, on the morning of 4 March, on the sinking of the unarmed Iranian frigate Dena.

The meticulously planned assassination of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on 28 February was meant to bring about a swift regime change and a victorious end to the war. The joint Israeli-US war machine assumed that such a high profile decapitation strike would pave the way for swift public uprising and capitulation of the Iranian government.

The aggressors, quite wrongly, assumed that those who launched the costly protest campaign in Iran, in late December last year, against the unbearable cost of living, would be able to exploit Khamenei’s assassination.

Unpredictable US President Donald Trump was so confident, on the first day of the offensive, that he urged the Iranian military to lay down their arms and its people to take over their government. International media quoted the Republican Chief as having said: “It will be yours to take”.

Trump disregarded his top military adviser, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Air Force General Dan Caine’s warning against attacking Iran. US media reported that Caine, who succeeded Air Force General C.Q. Brown, sacked by Trump in February 2021, warned that war could be risky, potentially drawing the US into a prolonged conflict.

Over two weeks into the war, the Israeli-US assumption seems utterly wrong with those, who genuinely believed in the sure collapse of the Iranian administration following the decapitating strike, are struggling to cope up with the spirited Iranian counter attacks. While enduring a much larger devastating bombing campaign, compared to the 12-day war in June last year, Iran overwhelmed Israel and Gulf countries where powerful US forces were stationed. Their costly missile defences seemed ineffective against Iranian missile and drone salvos that caused unprecedented chaos in the region.

But, what really astonished the Gulf states was Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz – the only maritime passage between the Gulf and the Gulf of Oman and the route for about a quarter of the global liquefied natural gas and seaborne trade from Gulf countries. This stunned the aggressors and those who blindly backed their despicable strategy.

Iran has categorically denied missile and drone attacks on Cyprus, Azerbaijan and Turkey. If Iran didn’t target them, who did? Whoever staged those attacks, their intention is clear. They want to involve NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organisation) in the Israeli-US misadventure by hitting NATO members Cyprus and Turkey. Why would Iran attack Turkey against the backdrop of Ankara’s condemnation of Khamenei’s assassination, and also denied the use of its airspace, territory, and territorial waters to the US armed forces for the ongoing war?

The US announcement on March 12 that curbs on Russian oil would be lifted till April 11 underscored the gravity of the situation. Having failed to achieve a swift ‘regime change,’ their much touted primary objective in Operation ‘Epic Fury,’ the US has no option but to swallow its pride and seek Vladimir Putin’s intervention. The US ended with egg on face. It would be pertinent to mention the US sanctioned Russian oil immediately after the launch of Moscow’s Special Operation against Ukraine in February 2022. That ban had been based on the assumption that oil revenue enabled Russia to prolong the war in Ukraine.

Does the 11 April deadline mean that the Israel-US combine seriously believed that Iran could be defeated by that time? Intense media coverage of the conflict indicated that Israel and US objectives in Iran weren’t the same. Regardless of repeatedly vowing to achieve regime change in Iran, the aggressors ended up examining ways and means of exiting the conflict triggered by them. The way Iran has been responding to Israeli-US attacks, the West cannot fully restore Hormuz by the second week of April. Prolong war may force US to extend waiver on sanctioned Russian oil, thereby further strengtheing Putin.

The US-Israeli strategy has suffered in the absence of an anticipated large scale public uprising, in Iran, immediately after the decapitation strike. When that failed to materialise, as expected, the overall picture of the largest ever combined Israeli-US offensive changed.

Unilateral US decision to lift the ban on Russian oil, even temporarily, divided the western grouping backing Ukraine. In spite of the US being a critical member of that grouping, the Iranian action left Trump with no alternative but to ease pressure on global oil markets at Ukraine’s expense. The Europeans realise that the failure to effect regime change may compel Trump to extend waiver on oil sanctions on Russia.

What really went wrong? President Trump has been so confident of Iranian surrender he mocked British preparations for the deployment of aircraft carriers to the Middle East.

“The United Kingdom, our once Great Ally, maybe the Greatest of them all, is finally giving serious thought to sending two aircraft carriers to the Middle East,” President Trump declared on March 8. The humiliating Truth Social post appeared to be influenced by rash thinking.

“That’s OK, Prime Minister Starmer, we don’t need them any longer — But we will remember. We don’t need people that join Wars after we’ve already won!” President Trump ridiculed the British. Reference to the UK as a ‘once great ally,’ underscored the US-UK rift.

But several days later, Trump sought deployment of other navies, including that of the UK to break the Iranian blockade on Hormuz Strait.

Modi phones Pezeshkian

Had the Israeli-US project achieved its primary objective, namely regime change, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi wouldn’t have had to eat humble pie after declaring solidarity with Israel, just a few days before the unprovoked war. Prime Minister Modi, on March 12, nearly two weeks after the killing of Supreme Leader Khamenei, phoned Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian.

Modi had no option but to get in touch with the post Khamenei Iranian leadership amidst growing turmoil in the country over disruption of vital gas and fuel supplies. India made its move as the US declared that New Delhi could turn to Russia for the time being. India desperately needed oil and required them as quickly as possible.

Having elevated India-Israel partnership to the highest level in the wake of Modi’s late February 2026 visit to Tel Aviv, on the eve of the unprovoked attack to decapitate the Iranian leadership, India found itself in an unenviable situation. The two-day visit led to what the two governments called “Special Strategic Partnership for Peace, Innovation and Prosperity.” In other words, the Israelis must have been working overtime on war preparations while Modi and Indian External Affairs Minister Dr. Jaishankar were visiting the Jewish State.

Modi’s call and a couple of calls from Dr. Jaishankar to his Iranian counterpart Abbas Araghchi facilitated the passage of fuel carriers. The US must have been deeply upset by the Indian move but that ensured the BJP, in power since 2014, brought the situation under control for the time being. The truth is India had been compelled to negotiate with Iran and the latter wouldn’t have given assurance regarding safe passage for vessels carrying fuel for India without being adequately compensated.

After rushing to Israel to show their servile loyalty on the eve of launching the unprovoked attack on Iranians, the Indian-Iran deal, in the aftermath of that folly, for safe passage for New Delhi’s vessels, proved that there were limits to the world’s solitary superpower. In the run-up to Modi’s call to President Pezeshkian, the Indian leader came under heavy Congress fire over India’s failure to promptly condemn the assassination of the Iranian Supreme Leader. Initially, the Indian government acted as if Congress criticism were irrelevant but it had to appeal to Iran in the wake of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran appeared to have exploited India’s difficulties. Having overlooked India-Israel/US partnership and the sinking of the unarmed Iranian frigate ‘Dena’ on 4 March, Iran’s Ambassador to India, Mohammad Fathali, on 13 March declared their readiness to grant safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz for vessels on their way to India.

Responding to a question from an RT India correspondent, the envoy highlighted that Tehran considered New Delhi as a friend and that there were converging interests between the two countries.

Asked directly whether India would receive safe passage through the Strait, he replied: “Yes, because India is our friend. You will see it within two or three hours.” (RT India is a New Delhi-based, English-language television news channel officially launched in December 2025 by Russian President Vladimir Putin).

At the time Israel-US unleashed war on Iran, India wouldn’t have anticipated such a scenario-direct negotiation with Iran to secure energy supplies and the US having to waive the ban on Russian oil sales. How would India-Iran deal on safe passage for energy carriers impact on India-Israel/US relations?

Sri Lanka, rattled by the developing situation, swiftly followed suit to explore the possibility of securing Russian oil. Russian Ambassador in Colombo Levan Dzhagaryan, on the invitation of the government, met Foreign Minister Vijitha Herath, at the Foreign Ministry, and assured the Minister Moscow would be informed. However, whether that meeting would produce results, as desired by Sri Lanka, is not yet known. But, Sri Lanka, trapped in the US Indo-Pacific strategy, seems utterly helpless as President Trump’s unprovoked gangster-type actions roiled the world. Ambassador Dzhagaryan, who had served as Russia’s top envoy in Iran, from 2011 to 2022, during a recent interview with the writer explained how the West sought to defeat Russia in Ukraine and the events leading to the Special Military operation in February 2022.

Gulf States in turmoil

Dzhagaryan

The stepped-up US naval build-up against Iran made it clear that a combined Israel-US offensive was inevitable. Against that background, the significance of an invitation received by the Colombo-based media to meet UAE Ambassador in Colombo, Khaled Nasser Al Ameri, in late February, this year, was realised only after the eruption of the war.

Ambassador Al Ameri, who had been here since February 2022, never called such a meeting before during 25 February dinner meeting at Cinnamon Life at City of Dreams discussed issues amidst rising tensions. The writer was among the invited along with Kesara Abeywardena, Editor, Daily News, and Nisthar Cassim, Editor, Daily FT. Perhaps the Ambassador felt the need to comprehend the pulse of the Colombo media due to the presence of a significant Sri Lankan community employed in his country.

The Gulf countries that accommodated US forces arrayed against Iran never expected Tehran to go the whole hog. Both the US and Gulf countries obviously miscalculated Iranian determination in the face of unprovoked aggression. They had to pay a very heavy price but none more so than the UAE. The Iranians shattered the myth of their invincibility due to the deployment of costly US armaments.

Paula Hancocks reported for CNN on 10 March that more than 1,700 missiles and drones had been fired towards the UAE since the war began. Quoting the UAE Defence Ministry, Hancocks said that more than 90% of them had been downed by interceptors, fighter jets and helicopters.

President Trump admitted in an interview with CNN’s Jake Tapper recently that Iran’s willingness to strike its Arab neighbours had been his biggest surprise of the war. But, faced with relentless Israeli-US offensive, Iran couldn’t have endured the pain without inflicting losses on all those arrayed against the country. The Iranian reaction must be examined taking into consideration the killing of the country’s Supreme Leader, some of his family as well as top military leaders.

The US-led coalition will eventually overwhelm Iran but the rapidity with which that country hit back even after losing the top leadership may embolden those opposed to US strategies. That is the undeniable truth. The latest Israeli and US claims of targets taken out in Iran cannot be discussed without taking into account their claims last June. During the 12-day war against Iran, Israel and US launched massive attacks but the retaliatory campaign launched by Iran after 28 February onslaught proved that debilitating losses couldn’t be inflicted by air campaigns alone.

UAE and others had learnt a bitter lesson by being part of Israeli-US strategy meant to overwhelm Iran. They had proved that Iran couldn’t be subdued the way the US succeeded in Venezuela in January this year. Venezuela appeared to have reached a consensus with the US following the abduction of its President Nicolas Maduro. The speed the new Venezuela leadership switched its allegiance to the US is not surprising though disappointing.

“I thank President Donald Trump for the kind willingness of his government to work together,” Rodríguez posted on X on 5 March, in perhaps her most shameless act of kneeling since Maduro’s abduction. But, in Iran, the attempted regime change operation in spite of it being overwhelming with superior firepower had been thwarted by that country. Their retaliation has exposed the weakness in the overall US-led defence of what can be termed Gulf Arab countries.

The recent relocation of a significant part of the US anti-missile system deployed in South Korea, particularly to meet the nuclear armed North Korean threat underscored the inadequacy of overall defence of the region at the time Israel-US attacked Iran. Foreign media reported South Korea protesting against the US move though it couldn’t interfere in the US action.

Status of Iranian proxies

The Lebanese armed group Hezbollah reached a ceasefire agreement with Israel in November 2024, following year-long clashes. In spite of the ceasefire, according to international media, Israel continued military presence in that country and there were numerous ceasefire violations. However, Hezbollah largely abided by the ceasefire until the assassination of the Iranian Supreme Leader.

Hezbollah resumed large scale attacks on Israel following the 28 February attacks. Combined Iran-Hezbollah attacks on Israel caused significant trouble. Israel launched retaliatory strikes and expanded ground operations in Lebanon where over a million people were displaced amidst massive destruction of infrastructure.

The French offer to arrange direct talks between Israel and Lebanon to find a lasting solution to the developing crisis seems irrelevant as long as Israel-US action continues against Iran. The issue at hand is the Israel’s desire to obliterate Iran with US support. US media, particularly CNN, reported how the American public resented the expanding US role in the conflict, with Trump issuing contradictory statements regarding US objectives.

Hamas, whose October 2023 raid on Israel resulted in the ongoing conflict, appeared to have surprised Iran with its recent plea to Tehran not to attack Gulf Arab countries in retaliation for Israeli-US aggression. Iran simply ignored Hamas appeal.

Iran should be held responsible for pursuing destructive strategy in the region by sponsoring Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon and Houthis in Yemen. The Israeli military action that followed the unprecedented October 2023 Hamas raid that caused well over 1,000 Israeli deaths weakened all Iran backed groups. Iran, in a way, used these groups as a buffer against the Jewish State. Lebanon, too, is a victim of Iranian strategy that empowered Hezbollah to take on Israel. US backed Israeli actions cannot be discussed under any circumstances turning a blind eye to Iranian funding of Hamas, Hezbollah and Houthis fought back in whatever way possible. People have forgotten President Ranil Wickremesinghe’s ridiculous declaration in late December 2023 that he would deploy an Offshore Patrol Vessel (OPV) in the Red Sea in support of US-led efforts to counter Houthi attacks on the vital shipping lane.

In spite of reports and claims of the Sri Lanka Navy sending an OPV there, actual deployment never took place. Sri Lankan vessels are not equipped to face possible missile and drone threats and in case of deployment would have been vulnerable to Houthi such attacks.

 

By Shamindra Ferdinando

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Midweek Review

Digital Transformation in the Global South: Understanding Sri Lanka through India AI Impact Summit 2026

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Artificial Intelligence has rapidly moved from being a specialised technological field into a major social force that shapes economies, cultures, governance, and everyday human life. The India AI Impact Summit 2026, held in New Delhi, symbolised a significant moment for the Global South, especially South Asia, because it demonstrated that artificial intelligence is no longer limited to advanced Western economies however can also become a development tool for emerging societies. The summit gathered governments, researchers, technology companies, and international organizations to discuss how AI can support social welfare, public services, and economic growth. Its central message was that artificial intelligence should be human centered and socially useful. Instead of focusing only on powerful computing systems, the summit emphasised affordable technologies, open collaboration, and ethical responsibility so that ordinary citizens can benefit from digital transformation. For South Asia, where large populations live in rural areas and resources are unevenly distributed, this idea is particularly important.

One of the most important concepts promoted at the summit was the idea of “people friendly AI.” This means that artificial intelligence should be accessible, understandable, and helpful in daily activities. In South Asia, language diversity and economic inequality often prevent people from using advanced technology. Therefore, systems designed for local languages and smartphones play a crucial role. When a farmer can speak to a digital assistant in Sinhala, Tamil, or Hindi and receive advice about weather patterns or crop diseases, technology becomes practical rather than distant. Similarly, voice based interfaces allow elderly people and individuals with limited literacy to use digital services. Affordable mobile based AI tools reduce the digital divide between urban and rural populations. As a result, artificial intelligence stops being an elite instrument and becomes a social assistant that supports ordinary life.

Transformation

The influence of this transformation is visible in education. AI based learning platforms can analyse student performance and provide personalized lessons. Instead of all students following the same pace, weaker learners receive additional practice while advanced learners explore deeper material. Teachers are able to focus on mentoring and explanation rather than repetitive instruction. In many South Asian societies, including Sri Lanka, education has long depended on memorisation and private tuition classes. AI tutoring systems could reduce educational inequality by giving rural students access to learning resources similar to those available in cities. A student who struggles with mathematics, for example, can practice step by step exercises automatically generated according to individual mistakes. This reduces pressure, improves confidence, and gradually changes the educational culture from rote learning toward understanding and problem solving.

Healthcare is another area where AI is becoming people friendly. Many rural communities face shortages of doctors and medical facilities. AI-assisted diagnostic tools can analyse symptoms or medical images and provide early warnings about diseases. Patients can receive preliminary advice through mobile applications, which helps them decide whether hospital visits are necessary. This reduces overcrowding in hospitals and saves travel costs. Public health authorities can also analyse large datasets to monitor disease outbreaks and allocate resources efficiently. In this way, artificial intelligence supports not only individual patients but also the entire health system.

Agriculture, which remains a primary livelihood for millions in South Asia, is also undergoing transformation. Farmers traditionally rely on seasonal experience, but climate change has made weather patterns unpredictable. AI systems that analyze rainfall data, soil conditions, and satellite images can predict crop performance and recommend irrigation schedules. Early detection of plant diseases prevents large-scale crop losses. For a small farmer, accurate information can mean the difference between profit and debt. Thus, AI directly influences economic stability at the household level.

Employment and communication

Artificial intelligence is also reshaping employment and communication. Routine clerical and repetitive tasks are increasingly automated, while demand grows for digital skills such as data management, programming, and online services. Many young people in South Asia are beginning to participate in remote work, freelancing, and digital entrepreneurship. AI translation tools allow communication across languages, enabling businesses to reach international customers. Knowledge becomes more accessible because information can be summarised, translated, and explained instantly. This leads to a broader sociological shift: authority moves from tradition and hierarchy toward information and analytical reasoning. Individuals rely more on data when making decisions about education, finance, and career planning.

Shared conditions

The impact on Sri Lanka is especially significant because the country shares many social and economic conditions with India and often adopts regional technological innovations. Sri Lanka has already begun integrating artificial intelligence into education, agriculture, and public administration. In schools and universities, AI learning tools may reduce the heavy dependence on private tuition and help students in rural districts receive equal academic support. In agriculture, predictive analytics can help farmers manage climate variability, improving productivity and food security. In public administration, digital systems can speed up document processing, licensing, and public service delivery. Smart transportation systems may reduce congestion in urban areas, saving time and fuel.

Economic opportunities are also expanding. Sri Lanka’s service based economy and IT outsourcing sector can benefit from increased global demand for digital skills. AI-assisted software development, data annotation, and online service platforms can create new employment pathways, especially for educated youth. Small and medium entrepreneurs can use AI tools to design products, manage finances, and market services internationally at low cost. In tourism, personalized digital assistants and recommendation systems can improve visitor experiences and help small businesses connect with travelers directly.

However, the integration of artificial intelligence also raises serious concerns. Digital inequality may widen if only educated urban populations gain access to technological skills. Some routine jobs may disappear, requiring workers to retrain. There are also risks of misinformation, surveillance, and misuse of personal data. Ethical regulation and transparency are therefore essential. Governments must develop policies that protect privacy, ensure accountability, and encourage responsible innovation. Public awareness and digital literacy programs are necessary so that citizens understand both the benefits and limitations of AI systems.

Beyond economics and services

Beyond economics and services, AI is gradually influencing social relationships and cultural patterns. South Asian societies have traditionally relied on hierarchy and personal authority, but data-driven decision making changes this structure. Agricultural planning may depend on predictive models rather than ancestral practice, and educational evaluation may rely on learning analytics instead of examination rankings alone. This does not eliminate human judgment, but it alters its basis. Societies increasingly value analytical thinking, creativity, and adaptability. Educational systems must therefore move beyond memorization toward critical thinking and interdisciplinary learning.

In Sri Lanka, these changes may contribute to national development if implemented carefully. AI-supported financial monitoring can improve transparency and reduce corruption. Smart infrastructure systems can help manage transportation and urban planning. Communication technologies can support interaction among Sinhala, Tamil, and English speakers, promoting social inclusion in a multilingual society. Assistive technologies can improve accessibility for persons with disabilities, enabling broader participation in education and employment. These developments show that artificial intelligence is not merely a technological innovation but a social instrument capable of strengthening equality when guided by ethical policy.

Ultimately, the India AI Impact Summit 2026 represents a symbolic shift in the global technological landscape. It indicates that developing nations are beginning to shape the future of artificial intelligence according to their own social needs rather than passively importing technology. For South Asia and Sri Lanka, the challenge is not whether AI will arrive but how it will be used. If education systems prepare citizens, if governments establish responsible regulations, and if access remains inclusive, AI can become a partner in development rather than a source of inequality. The future will likely involve close collaboration between humans and intelligent systems, where machines assist decision making while human values guide outcomes. In this sense, artificial intelligence does not replace human society however transforms it, offering Sri Lanka an opportunity to build a more knowledge based, efficient, and equitable social order in the decades ahead.

by Milinda Mayadunna

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Midweek Review

‘Conversational reading’ with children

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Enhancing Sensibility

In our contemporary culture, we have lost our age-old tradition of intergenerational transmission of stories through spoken word, and our children have lost their romance with the printed word. These were the observations made by several learned contributors to this journal in recent times. In this context, I was interested in reading the informative article titled, ‘The Art and Science of Communicating with Your Little Child’ [The Island, March 5, 2026] by senior Paediatrician Dr. B. J. C. Perera, in which he underscores the significance of meaningful communication of children, mostly with their parents, in designing the ‘architecture of their minds’, a task which cannot be served by apps, vocabulary flashcards, or educational television. Dr. Perera, has drawn a consilience between science and sensibility.

While acknowledging the developmental benefits of appropriate social interactions, stories listened to and read by children in their formative years, I wish to address the allied topic of conversational reading [also known as dialogic or interactive reading] which provides a wider area of growth and sensibility. Not pretending it to be a novel idea, I write with the hope of raising the awareness of parents, grandparents and teachers alike, of the wider scope of the topic, in view of recent research of its developmental benefits for children,

Nowadays, children spend countless hours immersed in electronic media [e. g. smart phones, social media, gaming etc.] without guidance from parents who are occupied with busy work schedules. Children have less time for reading outside the school curriculum and to have a meaningful dialogue. While not denying the immense benefits of technological advances, social media mainly provide sensation and impression, offering less depth and complexity of thought. They also provide an escape from a ruthlessly competitive education system with tuition outside school hours and burdensome homework. It is now becoming increasingly evident that overindulgence in social media use has the potential to cause pervasive detrimental effects on children relating to their emotional stability, impulse control, sleep pattern and interpersonal skill.

Before embarking on the subject of Conversational Reading and its developmental benefits, I wish to briefly address the topics of intergenerational storytelling and reading.

Intergenerational Story-telling

The tradition of intergenerational storytelling is a universal exercise, perhaps dating back to the development of language itself. Typically, stories are told for transferring information or education or for entertainment. Early humans such as the Aboriginal People of Australia, who lived before the development of the written word, story-telling by tribal elders [‘knowledge keepers’] was the primary mode of transmission of knowledge, values and life lessons. It was a powerful tool for education, intertwined with art, songs and dances, fostering beliefs about creation, ancestral spirits, and connection to the land. The stories helped to pass down generations, a sense of cultural identity and the need to live in harmony with each other and with the environment.

Story-telling through Printed Word

Following the development of the written word by Sumerians in Mesopotamia around 3500 – 3200 BCE and printing on paper by the Chinese in 868 CE, stories were delivered to some extent through the printed word. The first printed children’s story on paper, ‘Orbis Sensualium Pictus’ [The World of Things Obvious to the Senses drawn in Pictures’] published in 1658 by John Amos Comenius, the Czech educator, was an educational book with illustrations that inspired joyful learning in children. Since then illustrated story books were marketed for pleasure reading. Combining pictures with words became a delightful way to tell a story, as in the fairy tales by Hans Christian Andersen, Alice’s Adventures in Wonderland by Lewis Carroll and The Tale of Peter Rabbit by Beatrix Potter. Stories were presented in both prose and verse.

We Sri Lankans are endowed with a wealth of children’s literature pioneered by such literary figures as Kumaratunga Munidasa, Ananda Rajakaruna, Tibetan [Sikkimese] monk Rev. S. Mahinda, V. D. De Lanarolle, Piyadasa Sirisena, G.H. Perera and others. They transformed folk tales into prose and poetry for supplementary reading. Edwin Ranawaka translated children’s stories from English to Sinhala with modifications to suit the local readership. They were men of vision who inspired the young with their literary work aimed at enhancing their creativity, sensitivity and tranquillity to prepare them for the challenges of the future. Our literary icon, Martin Wickremasinghe, was ahead of his time in recognising the importance of children’s literature and its positive impact on their psychosocial and intellectual development. In his book ‘Apey Lama Sahithyaya’ [Our Children’s Literature] in the immediate post-independent era he made the astute observation that a nation without children’s literature rooted in its heritage may face intellectual and moral decline. Wickremasinge regretted that despite the above contributions, we have been slow in developing a children’s literature of our own, although such a literary genre has long been established in the west.

I apologise for not being able to add to the above any Tamil authors of children’s stories due to my lack of knowledge.

Regular exposure to reading books has a long list of benefits for children: reading expands exposure to language and new vocabulary, builds foundational skills such as prediction, sequencing, and summarising, and introduces characters and worlds far beyond a child’s family or neighbourhood. Reading is a powerful technique in broadening social, emotional and cognitive development of children.

Conversational Reading

Recent research in childhood education and psychology has shown that conversational reading with children in their early formative years [in the main the pre-primary and primary school years] can both broaden and deepen the already known developmental benefits of the reading experience.

Conversational reading is the art of reading to and reading with children of an age appropriate piece of prose or verse by an adult, in a two way interactive process, exploring their thoughts and feelings about what is read and helping them to articulate their views within their capacity. It is fundamentally different from simply reading the words in a book to a child. It promotes the use of open-ended questions to create conversations while reading. In this dynamic, the child and the adult [parent, grand-parent, or teacher] contribute to the conversation in equal parts. Conversational reading in the school setting with a group of children offers greater benefits as it encourages discussion amongst them.

Research findings on conversational reading shows a wide range of developmental benefits – cognitive, emotional, and social.

Significant improvements in language development, especially in the areas of expressive vocabulary, word acquisition and sentence structure through modelling and meaningful conversations.

Such meaningful conversations enhance reading comprehension by reflection on characters and events and encourage critical thinking by looking beyond the narrative. Their active participation increases their imagination and creativity and their motivation to read.

Children being active participants, rather than passive listeners, improve their communication skills and encourage respectful discourse and help raise their self-esteem.

It enhances social and emotional understanding through exploration of feelings and relationships, being insightful of others’ perspectives and the development of empathy.

It enables strengthening of emotional bonds with adults through meaningful dialogue.

It is a joyful exercise that facilitates learning.

Reading with children and talking with them about what matters is more important than ever before. Reading fluency, comprehension, and ability to relate the ideas in a story to yourself and the wider world are the building blocks of imagination, empathy, critical thinking, and creativity—all crucial qualities which give children the ability to better understand themselves and others and to find their place in the world.

by Dr Siri Galhenage,
MBBS, DPM, MRCPsych, FRANZCP
Psychiatrist [Retd]

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