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The next 25 years: How will the economy takeoff and how will it land?

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by Rajan Philips

President Wickremesinghe has a charming or annoying way, depending on who is listening, of switching between flippancy and seriousness no matter what the occasion is. Addressing the Sri Lanka Economic Summit 2022, an annual event organized by the Ceylon Chamber of Commerce, with ‘Resetting from turmoil to opportunity’ as this year’s theme, the President reportedly shocked the business audience, deadpanning, “What reforms, when we don’t have an economy!” To an audience that was apparently agog for serious revelations about an economic reform plan, the President said, “What is the plan for reform? Frankly, I have no plan for it.” But he had a program to announce and called it, ‘The Next 25 Years.’

Mr. Wickremesinghe has been harping on 25 years for some time now. That is the President’s expectation for Sri Lanka to reach economic growth and prosperity by 2048, a hundred years after becoming independent from colonial rule in 1948. The 2023 budget that passed its Third Reading on Thursday is supposed to be the launching pad for the anticipated economic recovery over the next 25 years. Hence, the President’s program: The Next 25 Years. Not to come across as being too cynical, there is nothing to substantiate this 25 year recovery program except the President’s word for it. The problem is he has a ‘word’ for everything, but little of consequence has come out of his word over the last 45 years as a parliamentarian, and four months as a parliamentary President.

He summarily wants national reconciliation achieved before independence day on February 4. We will know more about it after the All Party Conference scheduled for Monday, December 11. In the meantime, he has teased everyone with his allusion to resurrecting the District Development Councils, and used his 50th anniversary celebration as a lawyer to issue a clarion call for all fellow lawyers to come together to achieve national reconciliation. That would be fun. Getting all the lawyers to reach unanimity on something, anything. Especially, reconciliation!

Three Interventions

No presidential call, however, to all the Economists in the country to come together to help launch Sri Lanka’s 25-year economic recovery program. Economists are fewer in number and more competent in their discipline, which is also far less susceptible to pettifogging lawyerly arguments. After the President’s 2023 Budget, I have been looking at three interventions in the public domain, one by a political leader and two by noted Economists. The interventions are significant for not only what they say, but also for what they do not say.

The political leader is JVP’s Anura Kumara Dissanayake (AKD), who, as I wrote last week made a substantial speech on the economy and the political situation in the country at a public meeting in Badulla. The mainstream media has by and large ignored it. According to JVPers, mainstream media always ignores them except to dig up 1971 and 1988 whenever there is something to report on the JVP. Nonetheless, the JVP leader deserves more media coverage than a nondescript like Channa Jayasumana who seems to have wormed his way to get media coverage in spite of his abominable record in maliciously attacking Dr. Shihabdeen Shafi, the Kurunegala gynecologist, to get on the SLPP candidate list.

That aside, AKD’s Badulla speech is a graphic exposition of how terrible things are – from unaffordable prices to collapsing industries to rampant corruption. But there is nothing in the speech by way of specific remedies, except for the general assertion that elections must be held soon and the people must elect a new leadership, i.e., the JVP, to take over. He wants the country to take a leap of faith and endorse the JVP, not quite unlike President Wickremesinghe’s message to the country to take a leap of faith with him for the Next 25 Years.

The two economic intervenors I am referring to are Prof. Sirimal Abeyratne and Dr. Nimal Sanderatne, both of whom are weekly Sunday Times columnists. Abeyratne’s November 27 column is appropriately entitled, “Road to a ‘developed country’ in 2048,” and describes the budgetary vision as an “export-oriented, competitive economy led by the private sector.” The scale of the desired export expansion is ambitious – a continuous $3 billion increase in exports year over year for 25 years. Or an annual increase of 25% from the 2021 export total of $12.5 billion.

Perhaps the projected export growth is not to be deemed daunting, because after 25 years Sri Lanka’s total export value would be still under $100 billion in comparison to other export-successful Asian countries whose totals are already in the $300-$400 billion range. China is in a league of its own with an export total of $3.3 trillion. But China has a different problem, as is currently being noted by demographers. It is that the country is facing a population decline by 50% at the end of this century if not 30 years sooner. It will be quite a load off for the planet, but it is going to be an excruciating challenge for the Chinese society.

As for Sri Lanka, the annual export growth of $3 billion is to be matched by an equal yearly increase of $3 billion in Foreign Direct Investment (FDI). Sri Lanka’s FDI in 2021 dropped to a paltry $600 million, quite a way lower than Malaysia ($11.6 billion), Singapore ($99.1 billion), Thailand ($11.4 billion) and Vietnam ($15.2 billion). Curiously, the Next 25 Years are going to see exports and FDI increasing at the same rate and by the same amount to reach almost the same totals in 2048 – exports: $87 billion, and FDI: $76 billion. In contrast, the above mentioned Asian countries except Singapore have high export/FDI ratios – between 20 to 30. Is Sri Lanka going to miss out on productivity, or is productivity not meant to be a consideration for the Next 25 Years?

The more important question is how are these export and FDI growth projections going to be achieved from year to year, if they are to be the roadway for Sri Lanka to become a developed country and join the high income club with a per capita membership fee of $12,695? Prof. Abeyratne lists four pre-requisites, three of which are included in the budget. They are the introduction of a “single agency,” consolidating the current BOI, EDB, SLECIC and NEDA pillars and posts into a single window, to facilitate trade and investment; New Economic Zones in different parts of the country; and bilateral and multilateral Free Trade Area (FTA) agreements. None of which are new and have been tried and talked of before. The fourth requirement is what Prof. Abeyratne calls the “unilateral reform process,” which he considers to be “much more fundamental to export growth” than everything else. And this is what President Wickremesinghe cavalierly shot down at the Sri Lankan Economic Summit!

There is something else missing here. To achieve an annual export growth target of $3 billion, is it possible and is it not necessary to identify where this growth is going to come from? What is the contribution to growth from the already established export industries? Which among them have potential for growth and how could they be encouraged to expand? What are the industries that have plateaued but still need to be supported to maintain their production levels? Should there be an effort to identify potential new industries which are grounded on evidence and market potential, and not on snake-oil-sales-pitch about automobile-assembly plants? Would it make sense to have an export-product-mix and use it as a basis for opening target-oriented single agency, economic zones, and free trade areas?

The same day (November 27) Sunday Times column, Nimal Sanderatne hits the nail on the head by drawing attention to the enormity of the challenge of achieving the 2023 Budget objectives given “the political conditions in the country, production constraints in all sectors of the economy and the recessionary conditions abroad.” In his December 4 column, Dr. Sanderatne raises the possibility that the IMF’s $2.9 billion Extended Finance Facility may not be finalized even by March 2023. While it was overly optimistic on the part of everyone in Colombo to expect a smooth path to IMF’s support, Sanderatne is concerned about the geopolitical dynamic involving the restructuring of Sri Lanka’s debt to China and its political implications in Sri Lanka.

He alludes to something that few would have thought could become a possibility. And that is the likelihood of, as Sanderatne suggests, China blocking the IMF facility and offering an alternative “bailout package with Chinese financial and commodity assistance.” Nimal Sanderatne further suggests that based on Mahinda Rajapaksa’s speech during the budget debate, “such a programme would have the support of a large and influential component of the Government” led by Mahinda Rajapaksa and the SLPP. This would place President Wickremesinghe in a quandary, and it would also explain his scurrying for alternative funding sources in the World Bank, the ADB and Japan.

Takeoff and Landing

Geopolitical reality is what it is and it is Sri Lanka’s unique karma to have become indebted all at once to China, India, and the Paris Club lenders that includes Japan, and now has to find a way to restructure these debts without ruffling anyone’s feathers. Perhaps there is no denying that Ranil Wickremesinghe is the most suitable man for this unenviable task, but what is frustrating about him is that by his peculiar modes of operation he undermines his own suitability in the context of domestic politics. Put another way, there are serious hurdles to overcome before Sri Lanka can even get on the road to recovery, and the President has to engage the country far more substantively than by flippantly flinging mantras such as The Next Twenty Five Years.

To segue into a different theme, a January 2017 Working Paper (#641) in the Asian Development Bank Institute (ADBI) Working Paper Series, is on the subject, “Takeoffs, Landing and Economic Growth.” The paper (authored by Debayan Pakrashi and Paul Frijters) lists the takeoff and landing status of 22 South Asian and Southeast Asian economies. It provides a brief discussion on the experiences of Japan, the East Asian Tigers, the tiger cub economies, the People’s Republic of China, and India. Sri Lanka is included in the list, but not in the discussion.

Eighteen countries are identified as having had an economic takeoff including the year of takeoff. Only four countries are noted as having landed. The four countries with the takeoff and landing years are: Hong Kong (1960-1995), Japan (1946-1974), Malaysia (1968-1998), and Singapore (1966-1998). Sri Lanka’s year of takeoff is noted as 1990 but there has been no landing, at least not till 2017 when the ADBI Paper was published. We know now that the economy crash-landed in 2021. What will be its takeoff mechanism for the President’s Next 25 Year flight from its crash-landing state now. And how will it land again?

I am ending with the questions I stated in the title. There are abler people to answer them, both “as a point of method and as a point of substance,” to recall Professor W.W. Rostow, who I believe was the first to introduce the concept of economic takeoff in his celebrated 1960 monograph entitled, The Stages of Economic Growth: A Non-Communist Manifesto. I was briefly introduced to Rostow in the 1970s by Peradeniya Economics Lecturer N. Balakrishnan as part of his lectures on Economics to Engineering students. Years later I read a Marxist critique of Rostow that Hector Abhayavardhana wrote when he was living in New Delhi before his return to Sri Lanka in 1964.

Now, should I be thankful to President Wickremesinghe for rekindling old interests? Re-reading Rostow, I find several resonances in Sri Lanka’s modern economic history as well as its current takeoff challenges. Hopefully, I would be able throw some light burden on those who feel constrained to read this column. Before that, let us wait and see what the President is going to surprise us with, next week, on his other big file: National Reconciliation.



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Lasting solutions require consensus

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Social Media training

Problems and solutions in plural societies like Sri Lanka’s which have deep rooted ethnic, religious and linguistic cleavages require a consciously inclusive approach. A major challenge for any government in Sri Lanka is to correctly identify the problems faced by different groups with strong identities and find solutions to them. The durability of democratic systems in divided societies depends less on electoral victories than on institutionalised inclusion, consultation, and negotiated compromise. When problems are defined only through the lens of a single political formation, even one that enjoys a large electoral mandate, such as obtained by the NPP government, the policy prescriptions derived from that diagnosis will likely overlook the experiences of communities that may remain outside the ruling party. The result could end up being resistance to those policies, uneven implementation and eventual political backlash.

A recent survey done by the National Peace Council (NPC), in Jaffna, in the North, at a focus group discussion for young people on citizen perception in the electoral process, revealed interesting developments. The results of the NPC micro survey support the findings of the national survey by Verite Research that found that government approval rating stood at 65 percent in early February 2026. A majority of the respondents in Jaffna affirm that they feel safer and more fairly treated than in the past. There is a clear improving trend to be seen in some areas, but not in all. This survey of predominantly young and educated respondents shows 78 percent saying livelihood has improved and an equal percentage feeling safe in daily life. 75 percent express satisfaction with the new government and 64 percent believe the state treats their language and culture fairly. These are not insignificant gains in a region that bore the brunt of three decades of war.

Yet the same survey reveals deep reservations that temper this optimism. Only 25 percent are satisfied with the handling of past issues. An equal percentage see no change in land and military related concerns. Most strikingly, almost 90 percent are worried about land being taken without consent for religious purposes. A significant number are uncertain whether the future will be better. These negative sentiments cannot be brushed aside as marginal. They point to unresolved structural questions relating to land rights, demilitarisation, accountability and the locus of political power. If these issues are not addressed sooner rather than later, the current stability may prove fragile. This suggests the need to build consensus with other parties to ensure long-term stability and legitimacy, and the need for partnership to address national issues.

NPP Absence

National or local level problems solving is unlikely to be successful in the longer term if it only proceeds from the thinking of one group of people even if they are the most enlightened. Problem solving requires the engagement of those from different ethno-religious, caste and political backgrounds to get a diversity of ideas and possible solutions. It does not mean getting corrupted or having to give up the good for the worse. It means testing ideas in the public sphere. Legitimacy flows not merely from winning elections but from the quality of public reasoning that precedes decision-making. The experience of successful post-conflict societies shows that long term peace and development are built through dialogue platforms where civil society organisations, political actors, business communities, and local representatives jointly define problems before negotiating policy responses.

As a civil society organisation, the National Peace Council engages in a variety of public activities that focus on awareness and relationship building across communities. Participants in those activities include community leaders, religious clergy, local level government officials and grassroots political party representatives. However, along with other civil society organisations, NPC has been finding it difficult to get the participation of members of the NPP at those events. The excuse given for the absence of ruling party members is that they are too busy as they are involved in a plenitude of activities. The question is whether the ruling party members have too much on their plate or whether it is due to a reluctance to work with others.

The general belief is that those from the ruling party need to get special permission from the party hierarchy for activities organised by groups not under their control. The reluctance of the ruling party to permit its members to join the activities of other organisations may be the concern that they will get ideas that are different from those held by the party leadership. The concern may be that these different ideas will either corrupt the ruling party members or cause dissent within the ranks of the ruling party. But lasting reform in a plural society requires precisely this exposure. If 90 percent of surveyed youth in Jaffna are worried about land issues, then engaging them, rather than shielding party representatives from uncomfortable conversations, is essential for accurate problem identification.

North Star

The Leader of the Lanka Sama Samaja Party (LSSP), Prof Tissa Vitarana, who passed away last week, gave the example for national level problem solving. As a government minister he took on the challenge the protracted ethnic conflict that led to three decades of war. He set his mind on the solution and engaged with all but never veered from his conviction about what the solution would be. This was the North Star to him, said his son to me at his funeral, the direction to which the Compass (Malimawa) pointed at all times. Prof Vitarana held the view that in a diverse and plural society there was a need to devolve power and share power in a structured way between the majority community and minority communities. His example illustrates that engagement does not require ideological capitulation. It requires clarity of purpose combined with openness to dialogue.

The ethnic and religious peace that prevails today owes much to the efforts of people like Prof Vitarana and other like-minded persons and groups which, for many years, engaged as underdogs with those who were more powerful. The commitment to equality of citizenship, non-racism, non-extremism and non-discrimination, upheld by the present government, comes from this foundation. But the NPC survey suggests that symbolic recognition and improved daily safety are not enough. Respondents prioritise personal safety, truth regarding missing persons, return of land, language use and reduction of military involvement. They are also asking for jobs after graduation, local economic opportunity, protection of property rights, and tangible improvements that allow them to remain in Jaffna rather than migrate.

If solutions are to be lasting they cannot be unilaterally imposed by one party on the others. Lasting solutions cannot be unilateral solutions. They must emerge from a shared diagnosis of the country’s deepest problems and from a willingness to address the negative sentiments that persist beneath the surface of cautious optimism. Only then can progress be secured against reversal and anchored in the consent of the wider polity. Engaging with the opposition can help mitigate the hyper-confrontational and divisive political culture of the past. This means that the ruling party needs to consider not only how to protect its existing members by cloistering them from those who think differently but also expand its vision and membership by convincing others to join them in problem solving at multiple levels. This requires engagement and not avoidance or withdrawal.

 

by Jehan Perera

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Unpacking public responses to educational reforms

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A pro-government demonstration calling for the implementation of the education reforms. (A file photo)

As the debate on educational reforms rages, I find it useful to pay as much attention to the reactions they have excited as we do to the content of the reforms. Such reactions are a reflection of how education is understood in our society, and this understanding – along with the priorities it gives rise to – must necessarily be taken into account in education policy, including and especially reform. My aim in this piece, however, is to couple this public engagement with critical reflection on the historical-structural realities that structure our possibilities in the global market, and briefly discuss the role of academics in this endeavour.

Two broad reactions

The reactions to the proposed reforms can be broadly categorised into ‘pro’ and ‘anti’. I will discuss the latter first. Most of the backlash against the reforms seems to be directed at the issue of a gay dating site, accidentally being linked to the Grade 6 English module. While the importance of rigour cannot be overstated in such a process, the sheer volume of the energies concentrated on this is also indicative of how hopelessly homophobic our society is, especially its educators, including those in trade unions. These dispositions are a crucial part of the reason why educational reforms are needed in the first place. If only there was a fraction of the interest in ‘keeping up with the rest of the world’ in terms of IT, skills, and so on, in this area as well!

Then there is the opposition mounted by teachers’ trade unions and others about the process of the reforms not being very democratic, which I (and many others in higher education, as evidenced by a recent statement, available at https://island.lk/general-educational-reforms-to-what-purpose-a-statement-by-state-university-teachers/ ) fully agree with. But I earnestly hope the conversation is not usurped by those wanting to promote heteronormativity, further entrenching bigotry only education itself can save us from. With this important qualification, I, too, believe the government should open up the reform process to the public, rather than just ‘informing’ them of it.

It is unclear both as to why the process had to be behind closed doors, as well as why the government seems to be in a hurry to push the reforms through. Considering other recent developments, like the continued extension of emergency rule, tabling of the Protection of the State from Terrorism Act (PSTA), and proposing a new Authority for the protection of the Central Highlands (as is famously known, Authorities directly come under the Executive, and, therefore, further strengthen the Presidency; a reasonable question would be as to why the existing apparatus cannot be strengthened for this purpose), this appears especially suspect.

Further, according to the Secretary to the MOE Nalaka Kaluwewa: “The full framework for the [education] reforms was already in place [when the Dissanayake government took office]” (https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2025/08/12/wxua-a12.html, citing The Morning, July 29). Given the ideological inclinations of the former Wickremesinghe government and the IMF negotiations taking place at the time, the continuation of education reforms, initiated in such a context with very little modification, leaves little doubt as to their intent: to facilitate the churning out of cheap labour for the global market (with very little cushioning from external shocks and reproducing global inequalities), while raising enough revenue in the process to service debt.

This process privileges STEM subjects, which are “considered to contribute to higher levels of ‘employability’ among their graduates … With their emphasis on transferable skills and demonstrable competency levels, STEM subjects provide tools that are well suited for the abstraction of labour required by capitalism, particularly at the global level where comparability across a wide array of labour markets matters more than ever before” (my own previous piece in this column on 29 October 2024). Humanities and Social Sciences (HSS) subjects are deprioritised as a result. However, the wisdom of an education policy that is solely focused on responding to the global market has been questioned in this column and elsewhere, both because the global market has no reason to prioritise our needs as well as because such an orientation comes at the cost of a strategy for improving the conditions within Sri Lanka, in all sectors. This is why we need a more emancipatory vision for education geared towards building a fairer society domestically where the fruits of prosperity are enjoyed by all.

The second broad reaction to the reforms is to earnestly embrace them. The reasons behind this need to be taken seriously, although it echoes the mantra of the global market. According to one parent participating in a protest against the halting of the reform process: “The world is moving forward with new inventions and technology, but here in Sri Lanka, our children are still burdened with outdated methods. Opposition politicians send their children to international schools or abroad, while ours depend on free education. Stopping these reforms is the lowest act I’ve seen as a mother” (https://www.newsfirst.lk/2026/01/17/pro-educational-reforms-protests-spread-across-sri-lanka). While it is worth mentioning that it is not only the opposition, nor in fact only politicians, who send their children to international schools and abroad, the point holds. Updating the curriculum to reflect the changing needs of a society will invariably strengthen the case for free education. However, as mentioned before, if not combined with a vision for harnessing education’s emancipatory potential for the country, such a move would simply translate into one of integrating Sri Lanka to the world market to produce cheap labour for the colonial and neocolonial masters.

According to another parent in a similar protest: “Our children were excited about lighter schoolbags and a better future. Now they are left in despair” (https://www.newsfirst.lk/2026/01/17/pro-educational-reforms-protests-spread-across-sri-lanka). Again, a valid concern, but one that seems to be completely buying into the rhetoric of the government. As many pieces in this column have already shown, even though the structure of assessments will shift from exam-heavy to more interim forms of assessment (which is very welcome), the number of modules/subjects will actually increase, pushing a greater, not lesser, workload on students.

A file photo of a satyagraha against education reforms

What kind of education?

The ‘pro’ reactions outlined above stem from valid concerns, and, therefore, need to be taken seriously. Relatedly, we have to keep in mind that opening the process up to public engagement will not necessarily result in some of the outcomes, those particularly in the HSS academic community, would like to see, such as increasing the HSS component in the syllabus, changing weightages assigned to such subjects, reintroducing them to the basket of mandatory subjects, etc., because of the increasing traction of STEM subjects as a surer way to lock in a good future income.

Academics do have a role to play here, though: 1) actively engage with various groups of people to understand their rationales behind supporting or opposing the reforms; 2) reflect on how such preferences are constituted, and what they in turn contribute towards constituting (including the global and local patterns of accumulation and structures of oppression they perpetuate); 3) bring these reflections back into further conversations, enabling a mutually conditioning exchange; 4) collectively work out a plan for reforming education based on the above, preferably in an arrangement that directly informs policy. A reform process informed by such a dialectical exchange, and a system of education based on the results of these reflections, will have greater substantive value while also responding to the changing times.

Two important prerequisites for this kind of endeavour to succeed are that first, academics participate, irrespective of whether they publicly endorsed this government or not, and second, that the government responds with humility and accountability, without denial and shifting the blame on to individuals. While we cannot help the second, we can start with the first.

Conclusion

For a government that came into power riding the wave of ‘system change’, it is perhaps more important than for any other government that these reforms are done for the right reasons, not to mention following the right methods (of consultation and deliberation). For instance, developing soft skills or incorporating vocational education to the curriculum could be done either in a way that reproduces Sri Lanka’s marginality in the global economic order (which is ‘system preservation’), or lays the groundwork to develop a workforce first and foremost for the country, limited as this approach may be. An inextricable concern is what is denoted by ‘the country’ here: a few affluent groups, a majority ethno-religious category, or everyone living here? How we define ‘the country’ will centrally influence how education policy (among others) will be formulated, just as much as the quality of education influences how we – students, teachers, parents, policymakers, bureaucrats, ‘experts’ – think about such categories. That is precisely why more thought should go to education policymaking than perhaps any other sector.

(Hasini Lecamwasam is attached to the Department of Political Science, University of Peradeniya).

Kuppi is a politics and pedagogy happening on the margins of the lecture hall that parodies, subverts, and simultaneously reaffirms social hierarchies.

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Chef’s daughter cooking up a storm…

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Emma being congratulated on her debut Sinhala single // Emma Shanaya: At the launch of ‘Sanasum Mawana

Don Sherman was quite a popular figure in the entertainment scene but now he is better known as the Singing Chef and that’s because he turns out some yummy dishes at his restaurant, in Rajagiriya.

However, now the spotlight is gradually focusing on his daughter Emma Shanaya who has turned out to be a very talented singer.

In fact, we have spotlighted her in The Island a couple of times and she is in the limelight, once gain.

When Emma released her debut music video, titled ‘You Made Me Feel,’ the feedback was very encouraging and at that point in time she said “I only want to keep doing bigger and greater things and ‘You Made Me Feel’ is the very first step to a long journey.”

Emma, who resides in Melbourne, Australia, is in Sri Lanka, at the moment, and has released her very first Sinhala single.

“I’m back in Sri Lanka with a brand new single and this time it’s a Sinhalese song … yes, my debut Sinhala song ‘Sanasum Mawana’ (Bloom like a Flower).

“This song is very special to me as I wrote the lyrics in English and then got it translated and re-written by my mother, and my amazing and very talented producer Thilina Boralessa. Thilina also composed the music, and mix and master of the track.”

Emma went on to say that instead of a love song, or a young romance, she wanted to give the Sri Lankan audience a debut song with some meaning and substance that will portray her, not only as an artiste, but as the person she is.

Says Emma: “‘Sanasum Mawana’ is about life, love and the essence of a woman. This song is for the special woman in your life, whether it be your mother, sister, friend, daughter or partner. I personally dedicate this song to my mother. I wouldn’t be where I am right now if it weren’t for her.”

On Friday, 30th January, ‘Sanasum Mawana’ went live on YouTube and all streaming platforms, and just before it went live, she went on to say, they had a wonderful and intimate launch event at her father’s institute/ restaurant, the ‘Don Sherman Institute’ in Rajagiriya.

It was an evening of celebration, good food and great vibes and the event was also an introduction to Emma Shanaya the person and artiste.

Emma also mentioned that she is Sri Lanka for an extended period – a “work holiday”.

“I would like to expand my creativity in Sri Lanka and see the opportunities the island has in store for me. I look forward to singing, modelling, and acting opportunities, and to work with some wonderful people.

“Thank you to everyone that is by my side, supporting me on this new and exciting journey. I can’t wait to bring you more and continue to bloom like a flower.”

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