Business

Stagflation in Sri Lanka? Risks and policy responses

Published

3 years ago

2022/08/12

By Binura Seneviratne

The world economy is showing signs of a serious slowdown due to overlapping crises including the Russia-Ukraine War, the COVID-19 pandemic, China’s real estate crisis and the global tightening of monetary policy.

In June, the World Bank revised the 2022 growth prediction downward to 2.9% from its January forecast of 4.1%. The slowdown has come along with a decade-high bout of inflation worldwide with the global median Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) inflation rising to around 7.8% on a year-on-year (YoY) basis, the highest since 2008, according to April 2022 data (Figure 1). The emergence of a low-growth international environment together with a significant rise in inflation has raised concerns of stagflation; a period of low growth combined with high inflation.Monthly CPI Inflation, Year-On-Year The Effects of Stagflation

A global stagflationary environment could further weaken global economic growth while increasing inflation. To combat inflation, many central banks including the US Federal Reserve, the Bank of England and the European Central Bank have resorted to monetary tightening measures. The rise in global interest rates as a direct attempt to anchor inflation expectations will further subdue economic growth thereby increasing borrowing costs globally. This results in a downward economic cycle as rising borrowing costs will reflect in lower investments. The effects for developing countries could be more pronounced as inflation will hit the poorest and the marginalised the most. Weak global growth will decrease export income in these markets while higher global commodity prices will increase import expenditure leading to macroeconomic imbalances.

Risks for Sri Lanka

A global stagflationary environment can worsen Sri Lanka’s current economic crisis restricting growth and increasing inflation. Higher global borrowing costs will be detrimental to Sri Lanka’s future growth when the country resumes international borrowing once an IMF agreement is in place. The rise in commodity prices could further increase the country’s worsening food insecurity, with the World Food Programme reporting that 25% of the population is food insecure. Higher commodity costs will also increase import expenditure while lower global demand could reduce export revenue thus expanding the current account deficit. However, if global inflation is transient, the effects on the current account would be ambiguous. The global economic downturn will spark lower demand for commodities such as oil which could lower import expenditure but also reduce the demand for Sri Lankan exports.

Due to rising inflation and lower growth, the Sri Lankan economy is approaching stagflation. Growth expectations for the country have nosedived after the sovereign default with the economy projected to decline by -7.8% in 2022 and -3.7% in 2023 according to the World Bank. The combination of a myopic “organic” agricultural policy, the inflation pass through from the depreciation of the Sri Lankan Rupee by 80%, an expansionary monetary policy and global market conditions have resulted in inflation surging to 59% in June (YOY) (Figure 2).

Consumer Price Inflation (Jan 20 – May 22)

The tightening global economic conditions along with domestic supply-side factors such as shortages in food and fuel will continue to drive inflation in the country. Increased policy rates to combat inflation will result in lower investments. These factors, combined with political instability, lower than expected remittances, and lower productivity due to acute shortages of essential items will further constrict the Sri Lankan economy, pushing it into stagflation.Change in Policy Interest Rates of the Central Bank of Sri Lanka Policy Options

Sri Lankan policymakers are constrained within this economic environment. The country will need to impose austerity measures to receive an extended fund facility from the IMF. These measures will include tax reforms to increase government revenue, curtailing non-essential government spending and reducing subsidies. While a fiscal stimulus package is out of the equation, the country needs to target the most vulnerable groups in providing emergency subsidies, as rising inflation and job losses have led to lower standards of living, especially among the vulnerable segments of the population. Due to financing constraints, Sri Lanka will have to look for further bilateral and multilateral aid in securing funding for short term, targeted “in-kind” transfers such as food stamps. It is also imperative to have a bridge financing arrangement, to import essential commodities like fuel, so that supply shortages reduce. This should help in keeping productivity intact and inflationary pressure in check.

Monetary tightening should also continue. The CBSL hiked interest rates by 700 basis points in April this year. Interest rates were increased by another 100 basis points in July to control the rising inflation (Figure 3). Monetary policy decisions need to be communicated very clearly so that there is a stronger anchoring of inflation expectations. Anchored inflation expectations would limit a wage-price spiral to control inflationary pressure so that production costs do not rise further. Due to a global economic downturn, rising commodity prices and high rates of borrowing, Sri Lanka can expect a challenging external sector environment next year. Policymakers will need to understand these global challenges and make pragmatic economic decisions to minimise further damage to the economy.

Link to the blog https://www.ips.lk/talkingeconomics/2022/08/10/stagflation-in-sri-lanka-risks-and-policy-responses/

Author

Binura Seneviratne is a Research Officer working on macroeconomic policy, poverty and social welfare research at IPS. He holds a Master of Economic Policy from the Australian National University and a BSc in Economics and Finance from the University of York. (Talk with Binura: binura@ips.lk)

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Business

Cabinet approves establishment of two 50 MW wind power stations in Mullikulum, Mannar region

Published

2 hours ago

2025/12/11

Priyan

Adhering to the broad plan of the Government to reach the objective of accomplishing 70% of the country’s electricity supply from renewable energy sources by the year 2030, the approval of the Cabinet of Ministers was granted on 10.02.2025 to invite requests for resolutions from interested developers of the private sector in order to implement the Mullikulum Wind Power – 100 Mega Watts (two (02) wind power stations of
50 Mega Watts each) on the basis of construction, ownership and execution with a monitoring period of 20 years.

Accordingly, requests for proposals have been called to implement the relevant project by adhering to the international competitive bidding methodology, and seven (7) prospective project proposals were submitted.

Evaluating the said proposals, based on the recommendations submitted by the negotiation committee appointed by the Cabinet of Ministers, the Cabinet of Ministers granted approval to the resolution furnished by the Minister of Power to award the contracts of establishing the two (02) 50 Mega Watts Wind
Power Stations to Consortium of Vidullanka PLC & David Pieris Motor Company (Lanka) Limited and WindForce PLC.

Business

UNDP, together with partners, brings together immersive insight into the cruel realities of SGBV

Published

13 hours ago

2025/12/11

Sahan Weerasooriya

UNDP 16 Days of Activism against Gender Based Violence held at the Sri Lanka Foundation.

The 16 Days of Activism Against Gender-Based Violence is a global campaign observed annually from 25 November to 10 December, beginning on the International Day for the Elimination of Violence against Women and concluding on Human Rights Day. The campaign aims to raise awareness and inspire collective action to end all forms of violence against women and girls.

This year, in line with this, the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), together with its key partners through ongoing flagship project initiatives, is taking a unique, never-before-seen approach to advocacy. ‘Through Her Eyes,

wef.aoEiska, அவளின் பார்வையில்’ narrates the heart-wrenching journey of ‘Sara’ in her search for justice through multi-medium storytelling that merges stage theatre, film and creative audio production techniques.

‘Through her eyes’ is in line with three UNDP Sri Lanka projects; Enabling Access to Justice for Victim-Survivors of SGBV in Sri Lanka funded by the Government of Canada and implemented together with UNFPA Sri Lanka; the Support to Justice Sector Project (JURE) funded by the European Union in partnership with the Ministry of Justice, and implemented together with UNICEF Sri Lanka; and the Action and Anticipation for The New Agenda for Peace (AAA) supported through UNDP’s Funding Windows with funding from the Governments of Denmark, Luxembourg and the Republic of Korea.

Commenting on the timeliness of such public activations, Azusa Kubota, Resident Representative, UNDP in Sri Lanka, stated, “As the country recovers from one of its worst natural disasters in its recent history, the focus on gender equality, inclusion, and structural change is more vital than ever. We all know SGBV leaves a deep scar in survivors, those around them and the society they live in. Yet, do we really know what it is like to live through that experience? In a crisis, how do we address root causes of SGBV that get exacerbated? We wanted to mark this year’s 16 days differently – by creating an experience where we, irrespective of our gender, culture, and all other differences, put ourselves in the shoes of those who live through the pain and hardships, and collectively think through ways in which we can tackle persistent challenges confronted by many. Our advocacy efforts aspire towards a nation and world free from SGBV- to achieve gender equality and empower. ‘Through Her eyes’ is a unique experience that is designed to bring this issue in front of a broad demographic audience, by bringing together stakeholders from across the Government, private sector, development partners, youth and CSOs, as we stand together to end SGBV and support Sri Lanka to build back better.”

Sharing the perspective from the Government of Sri Lanka, Minister of Justice Harshana Nanayakkara commented, “Through Her Eyes’ invites us to pause and truly understand the lived realities of survivors. It is a powerful reminder that every survivor who comes forward does so with immense courage. Their pathway to justice must be dignified, safe and free from fear. Ensuring the safety and empowerment of women and girls is not a task that can be achieved in isolation. A holistic approach is vital. Law enforcement, the judiciary, health services, social services, educators, civil society, the private sector and communities must stand together as allies.”

As a key partner, Kiril Iordanov, Head of Cooperation at the High Commission of Canada noted, “Addressing GBV is a shared responsibility. Canada continues to collaborate with partners to design and champion innovative solutions. Our approach is rooted in the belief that promoting gender equality and empowering women and girls has a multiplier effect on development. By placing women and girls at the centre, we contribute to building a more peaceful, inclusive, and prosperous world.”

The Safe Space of this immersive production also highlights the support and work being carried out by the projects, to support better access for justice for victim-survivors of SGBV, capacity building for relevant public sector institutions, media ethics when reporting SGBV and the promotion of male allyship and bystander intervention as a mechanism to eradicate SGBV in Sri Lanka.

Highlighting the priorities of the European Union, Carmen Moreno, Ambassador of the European Union to Sri Lanka and the Maldives, commented, “Gender-based violence endures when access to justice is made difficult by fear, stigma or indifference. This exhibition invites us to understand the experience through the eyes of the victim, and it forces us to question—and dismantle—the barriers that allow violence to continue without consequences. Justice systems Justice systems must act with determination in confronting this problem, but they cannot do so in isolation. Real change requires a society that supports women, recognises the realities of gender-based violence, and refuses to look away.”

In light of the current situation of the country, the event also hosted an interactive dialogue on the theme ‘Delivering Economic Independence for Survivors of Sexual and Gender-based Violence during Crises’ on the sidelines of the event. With participation from key individuals, including the Government, development partners, private sector leaders, civil society organisations and youth groups, the dialogue looked at key areas of Gender-responsive and intersectional crisis planning; protection, safety, and justice built into disaster preparedness and humanitarian response; safeguarding shelter design, ensuring access to health and reproductive services, psychosocial support, and safe reporting mechanisms.

The campaign aims to raise awareness and inspire collective action to end all forms of violence against women and girls. It calls on governments, organisations, and individuals to challenge harmful gender norms, support survivors, and demand accountability from perpetrators.

‘Through Her Eyes, wef.aoEiska, அவளின் பார்வையில்’ is open to the public from the 2nd to 7th of December from 10 AM to 7 PM at the Sri Lanka Foundation Institute.

To know more and engage in the immersive experience: https://go.undp.org/through-her-eyes

Business

Outstanding AI & Fintech Governance Leadership Award 2025 for Sopnendu Mohanty

Published

13 hours ago

2025/12/11

Sahan Weerasooriya

Asian Digital Finance Forum and Awards Convener and Global Fintech Institute (Singapore) Industry Fellow Rajkumar Kanagasingam (left) presents the award to Sopnendu Mohanty during the GFTN Insights Forum held in conjunction with the Singapore FinTech Festival 2025 at Marina Bay Sands, Singapore.

Sopnendu Mohanty, former Chief FinTech Officer of the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) and current Group CEO of the Global Finance & Technology Network (GFTN), has received the Outstanding AI & Fintech Governance Leadership Award 2025 for his global contribution to responsible fintech advancement, cross-border policy innovation, and AI governance.

While the recognition was announced at the Asian Digital Finance Forum & Awards held at Port City Colombo, the formal handing-over ceremony was held recently in Singapore, during the GFTN Insights Forum that took place in parallel with the Singapore FinTech Festival 2025 at Marina Bay Sands Expo & Convention Centre.

Presenting the award, Rajkumar Kanagasingam, Convener of the Asian Digital Finance Forum & Awards and Industry Fellow of the Global Fintech Institute (Singapore), lauded Mohanty’s unique global impact.

“Sopnendu has set global benchmarks in innovation-friendly regulation, Kanagasingam said.

“From cross-border payment connectivity to AI ethics and multi-CBDC frameworks, his leadership has not only shaped Singapore’s fintech ecosystem but has helped entire regions transition into the digital economy responsibly.”

He added that Mohanty’s strategic influence continues beyond regulatory leadership.

“His ability to galvanise central banks, policymakers and innovators onto common platforms is rare. What he built in Singapore is now influencing multiple jurisdictions, and that continuity through GFTN is immensely valuable.”

Serving from 2015 to 2025 as MAS’s inaugural Chief FinTech Officer, Mohanty is widely acknowledged for transforming Singapore into one of the most forward-looking and trusted digital finance environments.

Mohanty has also endorsed Sri Lanka’s initiative to shape the Colombo International Financial Centre (CIFC) at Port City Colombo as a South Asian fintech gateway. He was presented with an interim policy blueprint during the DigiEcon Global Investment Summit.

By Ifham Nizam