Government has permitted, after several years, the import of motor cars. Imports, including cars, were cut off because the government then wisely prioritised importing other commodities vital to the everyday life of the general public. It is fair to expect that some pent-up demand for motor vehicles has developed. But at what prices? Government seems to have expected that consumers would pay much higher prices than had prevailed earlier.

The rupee price of foreign exchange had risen by about half from Rs.200 per US$ to Rs.300. In those years, the cost of production of cars also had risen. The government dearly wanted more revenue to meet increasing government expenditure. Usually, motor cars are bought by those with higher incomes or larger amounts of wealth. Taxes on the purchase of cars probably promote equity in the distribution of incomes. The collection of tax on motor cars is convenient. What better commodity to tax?

The announced price of a Toyota Camry is about Rs.34 million. Among us, a Camry is usually bought by those with a substantially higher income than the average middle-income earner. It is not a luxury car like a Mercedes Benz 500/ BMW 700i. Yes, there are some Ferrari drivers. When converted into US dollars, the market price of a Camry 2025 in Sri Lankan amounts to about $110,000. The market price of a Camry in US is about $34,000, where it is usually bought by income earners in the middle-middle class: typically assistant professors in state universities or young executives. Who in Lanka will buy a Camry at Rs.34 million or $110,000 a piece?

How did Treasury experts expect high revenue from the import of motor cars? The price of a Toyota Camry in US markets is about $34,000. GDP per person, a rough measure of income per person in US, was about $ 88,000 in 2024. That mythical ‘average person’ in US in 2024, could spend about 2.5 month’s income and buy a Toyota Camry. Income per person, in Lanka in 2024, was about $ 4,000. The market price of a Camry in Lanka is about $ 133,000. A person in Lanka must pay 33 years of annual income to buy a Toyota Camry in 2025.

Whoever imagined that with those incomes and prices, there would be any sales of Camry in Lanka? After making necessary adjustments (mutatis mutandis), Toyota Camry’s example applies to all import dues increases. Higher import duties will yield some additional revenue to government. How much they will yield cannot be answered without much more work. High import duties will deter people from buying imported goods. There will be no large drawdown of foreign exchange; nor will there be additional government revenue: result, high government foreign exchange reserves and low government revenue.

For people to buy cars at such higher prices in 2025, their incomes must rise substantially (unlikely) or they must shift their preferences for motor cars and drop their demand for other goods and services. There is no reason to believe that any of those changes have taken place. In the 2025 budget, government has an ambitious programme of expenditure. For government to implement that programme, they need high government revenue. If the high rates of duties on imports do not yield higher government revenue as hypothesised earlier, government must borrow in the domestic market. The economy is not worthy of raising funds in international capital markets yet.

If government sells large amounts of bonds, the price of all bonds will fall, i.e. interest rates will rise, with two consequences. First, expenditure on interest payments by government will rise for which they would need more revenue. Second, high interest rates may send money to banks rather than to industry. Finding out how these complexities will work out needs careful, methodically satisfactory work. It is probable that if government borrows heavily to pay for budgetary allocations, the fundamental problem arising out of heavy public debt will not be solved.

The congratulatory comments made by the Manager of IMF applied to the recent limited exercise of handling the severity of balance of payments and public debt problems. The fundamental problem of paying back debt can be solved only when the economy grows fast enough (perhaps 7.5 % annually) for several years. Of that growth, perhaps, half (say 4 % points) need to be paid back for many years to reduce the burden of external debt.

Domestic use of additional resources can increase annually by no more than 3.5 percent, even if the economy grows at 7.5 percent per year. Leaders in society, including scholars in the JJB government, university teachers and others must highlight the problems and seek solutions therefor, rather than repeat over and over again accounts of the problem itself.

Growth must not only be fast and sustained but also exports heavy. The reasoning is as follows. This economy is highly import-dependent. One percent growth in the economy required 0.31% percent increase in imports in 2012 and 0. 21 percent increase in 2024. The scarcity of imports cut down the rate of growth of the economy in 2024. Total GDP will not catch up with what it was in (say) 2017, until the ratio of imports to GDP rises above 30 percent.

The availability of imports is a binding constraint on the rate of growth of the economy. An economy that is free to grow will require much more imports (not only cement and structural steel but also intermediate imports of many kinds). I guess that the required ratio will exceed 35 percent. Import capacity is determined by the value of exports reduced by debt repayments to the rest of the world. The most important structural change in the economy is producing exports to provide adequate import capacity. (The constant chatter by IMF and the Treasury officials about another kind of structural change confuses the issue.) An annual 7.5 percent growth in the economy requires import capacity to grow by about 2.6 percent annually.

This economy needs, besides, resources to pay back accumulated foreign debt. If servicing that accumulation requires, takes 4% points of GDP, import capacity needs to grow by (about) 6.6 percent per year, for many years. Import capacity is created when the economy exports to earn foreign exchange and when persons working overseas remit substantial parts of their earnings to persons in Lanka. Both tourism and remittances from overseas have begun to grow robustly. They must continue to flow in persistently.

There are darkening clouds raised by fires in prominent markets for exports from all countries including those poor. This is a form of race to the bottom, which a prominent economist once called ‘a policy to beggar thy neighbour (even across the wide Pacific)’. Unlike the thirty years from 1995, the next 30 years now seem fraught with much danger to processes of growth aided by open international trade. East Asian economies grew phenomenally by selling in booming rich markets, using technology developed in rich countries.

Lanka weighed down with 2,500 years of high culture ignored that reality. The United States of America now is swinging with might and main a wrecking ball to destroy that structure which they had put up, one thought foolishly, with conviction. Among those storms, many container ships would rather be put to port than brave choppy seas. High rates of growth in export earnings seem a bleak prospect. There yet may be some room in the massive economies of China and India.

Consequently, it is fanciful to expect that living conditions will improve rapidly, beginning with the implementation of the 2025 budget. It will be a major achievement if the 2025 budget is fully implemented, as I have argued earlier. Remarkable efforts to cut down on extravagance, waste and the plunder of public funds will help, somewhat; but not enough. IMF or not, there is no way of paying back accumulated debt without running an export surplus sufficient to service debt obligations.

Exports are necessary to permit the economy to pay off accumulated debt and permit some increase in the standard of living. Austerity will be the order of the day for many years to come. It is most unlikely that the next five years will usher in prosperity.

By Usvatte-aratchi

An Ikebana exhibition in aid of pediatric cancer patients

This Ikebana exhibition by the members of Ikebana International Sri Lanka Chapter #262, brings this ancient art form to life in support of a deeply meaningful cause: aiding the Pediatric Cancer ward of the Apeksha Cancer Hospital, Maharagama and offering hope to young warriors in their fight against illness.

Graceful, delicate, and filled with meaning—Ikebana, the Japanese art of floral arrangement, is more than just an expression of beauty; it is a reflection of life’s resilience and harmony. “Blossoms of Hope”, is a special Ikebana exhibition, on 29th March from 11a.m. to 7p.m. and 30th March from 10a.m. to 6p.m. at the Ivy Room, Cinnamon Grand Hotel and demonstrations will be from 4p.m. to 5p.m. on both days.

Each floral arrangement in this exhibition is a tribute to strength, renewal, and love. Carefully crafted by skilled Ikebana artists, who are members of the Chapter. These breathtaking displays symbolize the courage of children battling cancer, reminding us that even in adversity, beauty can bloom. The graceful lines, vibrant hues, and thoughtful compositions of Ikebana echo the journey of resilience, inspiring both reflection and compassion.

Visitors will not only experience the tranquility and elegance of Japanese floral art but will also have the opportunity to make a difference. Proceeds from “Blossoms of Hope” will go towards enhancing medical care, providing essential resources, and creating a more comforting environment for young patients and their families.

This exhibition is more than an artistic showcase—it is a gesture of kindness, a symbol of solidarity, and a reminder that hope, like a flower, can grow even in the most unexpected places. By attending and supporting “Blossoms of Hope”, you become a part of this journey, helping to bring light and joy into the lives of children who need it most.

Join in celebrating art, compassion, and the Power of Hope—one flower at a time.

by Dr B. J. C. Perera
MBBS(Cey), DCH(Cey), DCH(Eng), MD(Paed), MRCP(UK),
FRCP(Edin), FRCP(Lond), FRCPCH(UK), FSLCPaed, FCCP, Hony.
FRCPCH(UK), Hony. FCGP(SL)
Specialist Consultant Paediatrician and Honorary Senior Fellow,
Postgraduate Institute of Medicine, University of Colombo, Sri Lanka.
Joint Editor, Sri Lanka Journal of Child Health and Section Editor, Ceylon Medical Journal

The so-called E-cigarettes come in many shapes and sizes and are known by several different names. They can look like cigarettes, cigars, pipes, pens, and even computer USB flash drives. They are also a fairly new product; a kind of new kid on the block. People sometimes find it hard to figure out what is in these devices and whether they are safe to use. This article is designed to provide some answers to the common questions asked regarding vaping.

E-cigarettes heat a liquid (called e-liquid, e-juice, or vape juice) and turn it into an aerosol or mist, sometimes called a “vapor” or “vapour”. When people use e-cigarettes, they inhale this aerosol into their lungs. The e-liquid in most e-cigarettes has nicotine, the same addictive chemical that is found in regular cigarettes, cigars, and other tobacco products. Nicotine levels are not the same in all types of e-cigarettes. Sometimes, product labels do not list the true nicotine content as well. Some e-cigarette brands have been found to contain nicotine even though they claim to be nicotine-free.

The assertion that vaping is a safe alternative to traditional cigarettes has become a pervasive, and dangerously misleading narrative. While e-cigarettes may lack the visible combustion of tobacco as seen in standard cigarettes, they introduce a complex cocktail of chemicals into the body, posing significant health risks that are, at minimum, comparable to those of smoking. This article aims to dismantle the “safer than thou” myth by examining the scientific evidence surrounding the harmful components of the currently available e-cigarette aerosols and their effects on human health.

Nicotine: The common denominator of addiction and harm

Both traditional cigarettes and e-cigarettes deliver nicotine, a highly addictive substance that plays a central role in the development of dependence. Nicotine’s effects extend far beyond addiction, impacting cardiovascular health, neurological function, and fetal development. There is evidence that nicotine harms the brain development of teenagers and if nicotine is used during pregnancy, it can also cause premature births and low birthweight babies.

Cardiovascular Risks:

Nicotine increases heart rate and blood pressure, constricts blood vessels, and contributes to the formation of arterial plaques or deposits that narrow the lumen. These effects elevate the risk of heart attack, stroke, and peripheral artery disease. While the long-term cardiovascular effects of vaping are still under investigation, studies have shown that e-cigarette usage leads to acute increases in heart rate and blood pressure, similar to those observed with traditional cigarettes. Studies have also shown that e-cigarette users have increased arterial stiffness.

Neurological Effects:

Nicotine affects brain development, particularly in adolescents, whose brains are still maturing. Exposure to nicotine during adolescence can impair cognitive higher functions, including memory, attention, and learning. It also increases the risk of developing mood disorders and addiction to other substances.

Fetal Development:

Nicotine exposure during pregnancy is associated with preterm birth, low birth weight, and sudden infant death syndrome (SIDS). E-cigarettes are not a safe alternative for pregnant women seeking to quit smoking.

Beyond Nicotine: The toxic cocktail of E-Cigarette aerosols

E-cigarette aerosols contain a complex mixture of chemicals, many of which are known to be harmful.

Carbonyl Compounds: The heating of e-liquid generates carbonyl compounds, including formaldehyde, acetaldehyde, and acrolein. These substances are known carcinogens and respiratory irritants. Formaldehyde, in particular, is a known human carcinogen and is linked to nasal and nasopharyngeal cancers. Acrolein is a potent irritant that can damage the lungs and contribute to chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD).

Volatile Organic Compounds (VOCs): E-cigarette aerosols contain VOCs, such as benzene, toluene, and xylene. These substances are associated with respiratory irritation, neurological damage, and cancer. Benzene, a known carcinogen, is a particular concern.

Heavy Metals: E-cigarette aerosols can contain heavy metals, including nickel, chromium, lead, and cadmium. These metals can accumulate in the body and cause a range of health problems, including respiratory damage, neurological disorders, and cancer. Nickel and chromium are known carcinogens.

Flavouring Chemicals: Flavouring chemicals, such as diacetyl, are added to e-liquids to enhance their appeal. Diacetyl is used to create a buttery flavour. However, it is linked to bronchiolitis obliterans, a severe and irreversible lung disease also known as “popcorn lung.” Other flavouring chemicals, such as cinnamaldehyde and vanillin, can also cause respiratory irritation and inflammation.

Ultrafine Particles: E-cigarette aerosols contain ultrafine particles that can penetrate deep into the lungs, causing inflammation and damage. These particles can trigger asthma attacks and exacerbate existing respiratory conditions. The size of these particles is comparable to those found in cigarette smoke, and their deep lung penetration is a major source of concern.

Propylene Glycol (PG) and Vegetable Glycerine (VG): These are the base fluids in e-liquids. When heated, they can decompose into carbonyl compounds and other harmful substances. PGs can cause respiratory irritation and eye irritation, and VGs can cause lipid pneumonia.

Respiratory Health: A Shared Vulnerability

Both smoking and vaping pose significant risks to respiratory health.

Lung Inflammation and Damage: E-cigarette aerosols can cause inflammation and damage to the airways and lung tissue. Studies have shown that vaping can lead to airway hyperresponsiveness, increased mucus or phlegm production, and impaired lung function. These effects are similar to those observed with traditional cigarette smoking.

EVALI (E-cigarette, or Vaping, product use associated lung injury): The 2019 EVALI outbreak seen primarily in the United States of America and reported from all of its 50 states, highlighted the acute and potentially fatal respiratory risks associated with vaping. The outbreak was linked to vitamin E acetate, a thickening agent used in some e-liquids. However, even without vitamin E acetate, other compounds in e-liquids could also cause severe lung damage.

Increased Risk of Respiratory Infections: Vaping can weaken the immune system, making individuals more susceptible to respiratory infections. Studies have shown that e-cigarette users have an increased risk of developing pneumonia and other respiratory infections.

The Long-Term Unknowns: A real cause for concern

While the short-term health effects of vaping are becoming increasingly clear, the long-term consequences remain largely unknown. The relatively recent emergence of e-cigarettes means that the full extent of their health risks may not be apparent for even several decades. However, the available evidence suggests that vaping is not a harmless activity and that it poses significant health risks.

Cancer Risk: The presence of known carcinogens in e-cigarette aerosols raises concerns about the long-term risk of cancer. While studies on the carcinogenic effects of vaping are still ongoing, the evidence suggests that e-cigarettes may increase the risk of lung cancer and other cancers.

Cardiovascular Disease: The long-term effects of vaping on cardiovascular health are also a concern. Chronic exposure to nicotine and other harmful substances in e-cigarette aerosols may increase the risk of heart disease and stroke over time.

Epilogue: The dreadful illusion of safety

The notion that vaping is a safer alternative to smoking as it is thought to be less harmful is an extremely dangerous misconception. E-cigarettes deliver a complex cocktail of harmful chemicals that pose significant risks to respiratory, cardiovascular, and neurological health. While the long-term effects of vaping are still being investigated, the available evidence suggests that it is not a harmless activity. The “safer” label attached to vaping is a marketing ploy that obscures the true dangers of these products. It is crucial to recognize that vaping is not at all a safe alternative to smoking and that the best way to protect your health is to avoid both traditional cigarettes and e-cigarettes.