Afghanistan made it till the semi-finals of the 2024 T20 World Cup, but this time, after just one game, they face an uphill task. Their loss to New Zealand in their opening match has put them, in all likelihood, in a do-or-die situation against South Africa: if they lose, even the wins against Canada and UAE may not be enough to qualify for the Super Eight stage.

It will not be easy for Afghanistan. They have faced South Africa three times in T20Is. On all three occasions, they were on the losing side. Their last defeat – in of the 2024 edition – was particularly chastening: South Africa bowled them out for 56 and then chased down the target with nine wickets to spare.

Apart from all that history, too, South Africa will be well primed after their win against Canada, where they ticked most boxes. Their captain Aiden Markram scored a half-century, David Miller and Tristan Stubbs added 75 in an unbroken stand, and the team posted the highest total of the tournament so far. Lungi Ngidi’s four-for was the icing on the cake. A win against Afghanistan will make their path to the Super Eight stage smooth.

It’s a day game, starting at 11am. But as Stubbs said after the Canada match, it may not make much of a difference.

It may feel like Rashid Khan is not the same bowler he once was. But numbers tell a different story. Since the start of 2024, he has taken 52 wickets in 26 T20Is against Full Members. Both his strike rate (11.3) and economy (5.83) in this period are better than his career numbers. If Afghanistan are to qualify for the next round, they will need similar performances from their captain.

Shadab Khan belted 30 off 12 balls then stifled USA’s chase with 2 for 26 to spearhead Pakistan’s second win of the T20 World Cup. After they snuck past Netherlands in a heart-stopping tournament opener on Saturday, this was a routine victory for Pakistan which highlighted how dangerous their spin-dominated attack might be on Sri Lankan pitches.

Sahibzada Farhan underpinned Pakistan’s total of 190 for 9 – their highest score at a T20 World Cup since the 2016 edition – with 73 off 41 balls, sharing partnerships worth 54 and 81 with Saim Ayub and Babar Azam respectively. But it was Shadab’s late launch from No. 6 that gave them a winning score, despite a chaotic finish to their innings.

Shadley van Schalkwyk USA’s standout bowler when they ran India close on Saturday night, returned identical figures of 4 for 25 as he leaned heavily on his slower balls. But the injured Ali Khan was a big miss, and a repeat of the USA’s famous Super Over victory when the teams met at the 2024 T20 World Cup always felt unlikely.

The fall of the once mighty West Indies has been steep across formats, yet in T20 cricket they still land the odd knockout punch. Sri Lanka, too, have slipped from the heady days when they were perennial contenders at ICC events and nowhere is the decline more glaring than in the shortest format. Still, old pros refuse to write them off. Nasser Hussain has tipped the islanders to spring a surprise while Jason Gillespie pencilled them in as semi-final material.

The faith is not blind. Sri Lanka know these conditions like the back of their hand and their bowlers possess enough tricks to put any batting line up in trouble. The worry lies elsewhere, a middle order that resembles a jigsaw with pieces missing.

In the modern game an IPL contract is often a golden ticket to the national side, yet Sri Lanka’s initial move to overlook Kamindu Mendis in favour of Test captain Dhananjaya de Silva raised eyebrows. It betrayed a mindset stuck in a different era.

Sunday’s scare against Ireland rammed home the point. Sri Lanka went 57 balls without a boundary until Kamindu broke the shackles with a cheeky reverse sweep, innovation that is the lifeblood of T20 cricket. How such a weapon was left in the holster in the first place is anyone’s guess.

Sri Lanka remain the only side juggling three captains across formats while playing all three of them in the T20 side.

The team’s top order generally fires out of the blocks, tearing along at more than ten an over in the Power Play, but from the seventh over the wheels begin to wobble. The innings turns into a grind and too often they fail to bat the full 20 overs.

When the field spreads and spinners take centre stage, the basics come into play, “milking the bowling”, running hard between the wickets, pinching “one for the throw”. These old school charms may be out of fashion but they still win matches. Soft hands, using the feet, rotating strike, virtues that have been tossed out in the pursuit of the glory shot.

Even associate sides such as UAE and USA boast thriving franchise leagues. Sri Lanka have the LPL, but it has been a stop start affair and has yet to produce a conveyor belt of finishers. Power hitters are thin on the ground. Kusal Janith Perera remains the cleanest striker in the country yet barely scraped into the squad and appears to be cooling his heels among the reserves.

Most nations pick a squad and then anoint a captain. Sri Lanka appear to have done it the other way round. Of course there have been exceptions. Mike Brearley never managed a Test hundred yet marshalled Botham, Gatting and Willis to Ashes glory; Bob Simpson was hauled out of retirement at 41 to steady an Australia stripped bare by the Packer exodus and did a sterling job.

Dasun Shanaka, however, is neither Brearley nor Simpson. For a side searching for direction, he has begun to look like deadwood rather than driftwood. Sri Lanka need to ask some tough questions.

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