The key issue at the forthcoming parliamentary election should be economic recovery, based on the IMF formula, or whatever an alternative solution that the President AKD-led government can come up with if the existing remedy, already negotiated by the previous regime with one of the twin sisters of Washington, is far too difficult to swallow. All political parties, including the JVP represented in the last parliament, however, agreed to adhere to the IMF formula by endorsing the Economic Transformation Bill. Unfortunately, sufficient attention hasn’t been paid to the primary issue at hand at all as the NPP sought to consolidate its political power. The challenge before the executive and the legislature is how to turn around the ailing national economy to pave the resumption of debt repayment in 2028. None of the political parties in the fray seem to be prepared to face the daunting challenge.

By Shamindra Ferdinando

The National People’s Alliance (NPP) and Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB) are the main contenders at the forthcoming parliamentary election. At the last general election, held in August 2020, the NPP won just three seats, including one National List (NL) slot, whereas the SJB secured 54 seats.

The breakaway UNP faction, the SJB that had been registered under controversial circumstances in early 2020, but emerged as the second largest parliamentary group, with the UNP, the Grand Old Party that was reduced to a humiliating one seat and that, too, coming from a NL slot it managed to scrape. The SJB, in its inaugural electoral contest at the previous general election, managed to grab 54 seats, including seven NL members.

The Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP), that won the election, secured a staggering 145 seats, including 17 NL slots.

But within five years, the NPP has turned tables on traditional middle of the road parties that clearly lost their grounds due to succumbing to political expediency for too long, which caused much of the electorate to lose their trust in them, with the NPP rightly playing up all the political chicanery they had been up to over the years. But it has to be mentioned that the NPP is still very much an old wine in a new bottle with its bulwark being the JVP that cannot easily erase its bloody past.

It is now poised to win the parliamentary elections, scheduled for Nov. 14. The NPP intends to win it primarily on the strength of NPP leader Anura Kumara Dissanayake’s (AKD) comparative superlative performance for a Marxist, despite so much fearmongering, rightfully or wrongly, from the established order at the presidential election, even though he couldn’t obtain 50% + 1 of the total number of valid votes.

AKD polled 5,634,915 votes (42.31%) while SJB leader Sajith Premadasa (SP) obtained 4,363,035 votes (32.76%). AKD and SP received 105,264 and 167,867 preferences, respectively. With the preferences, their respective tallies were AKD 5,740,179 votes and SP 4,530,902 votes.

Therefore the masses definitely wanted a break with the past without further political horse dealings and a clear stop to ingrained corruption that is eating into every fabric of our society. In that sense the NPP can now start with a clean slate after the general election, if it maintains the no-nonsense discipline it has shown since the unlikely victory at the presidential election.

At the last parliamentary election, the SJB received 2,771,980 votes, whereas the NPP obtained just 445,958 votes and secured fourth place in terms of number of seats won. NPP’s elected members were (AKD, Vijitha Herath and NL member Dr. Harini Amarasuriya). Although Parliament has been dissolved in the wake of AKD’s victory at the presidential election, Herath and Dr. Amarasuriya constitute the caretaker Cabinet, with AKD as its head.

If we go by the presidential election result, the NPP will be able to obtain 105 seats. If it happens the NPP wouldn’t have at least a simple majority in Parliament. In other words, AKD will be at the mercy of the Opposition. Former SJB parliamentarian Mujibur Rahuman recently declared that the SJB-led Opposition could form a government under the premiership of their leader Sajith Premadasa. The Colombo district contestant asserted that the NPP would end up with 105 seats whereas the combined Opposition could obtain 120 seats. Rahuman is certainly not the only ex-lawmaker to think so. Unfortunately, that would be nothing but wishful thinking. For one thing indications are some key Tamil parties are likely to be in the AKD-led government, after the general election, as they to see the winds of an inevitable and much needed change. EPDP leader Douglas Devananda has already declared his intention to back an NPP government.

Parliament consists of 196 elected and 29 appointed lawmakers. Let me remind readers of the allocation of seats in the last Parliament.

The SLPP obtained 145 (17 NL), SJB 54 (07 NL), Illankai Tamil Arasu Kadchi (ITAK) 10 (01 NL), NPP 03 (01 NL), Eelam People’s Democratic Party (EPDP) 02, Ahila Ilankai Thamil Congress (AITC) 02 (01 NL), Thamil Makkal Viduthalai Pulikal (TMVP) 01, Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) 01, Muslim National Alliance (MNA) 01, Thamil Makkal Thesiya Kuttani (TMTK) 01, All Ceylon Makkal Congress (ACMC) 01, National Congress (NC) 01, Sri Lanka Muslim Congress (SLMC) 01, United National Party (UNP) 01 NL and the Our Power of People Party (OPPP) 01.

Fifteen political parties were represented in the last Parliament. What would be the outcome of the forthcoming parliamentary election? In spite of the Opposition assertion that the NPP may end up even without a simple majority in Parliament, the ground realities seemed to be quite different.

In addition to the main contenders, there are three other notable political parties in the fray in the South. In the Northern and Eastern regions, the Tamil National Alliance (TNA) is the main party, while the Ceylon Workers’ Congress (CWC) contests Nuwara Eliya district under the UNP’s ‘elephant’ symbol.

UNP leader and former President Ranil Wickremesinghe, though not contesting the general election and also not in its NL, leads the New Democratic Front (NDF). That party had its symbol ‘swan’ changed to ‘gas cylinder’ recently to contest the general election. In spite of never having been represented in the Parliament, the NDF is not an ordinary political party. Since the end of the war, in 2009, the UNP fielded three presidential candidates in 2010 – the then retired General Sarath Fonseka (promoted to the rank of Field Marshal in 2015), 2015 Maithripala Sirisena and 2019 Sajith Premadasa.

Actually Sri Lanka’s type of democracy is a mystery. Having been involved in the UNP-led presidential campaigns in 2010 and 2015 and also part of that camp during the 2009-2019 period, the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) discarded its ‘bell’ symbol in 2019 to field AKD on the NPP ticket at the last presidential. Even prior to that, the JVP has had honeymoons with both Presidents Chandrika Kumaratunga and Mahinda Rajapaksa and helped them gain their electoral victories.

SLPP in tatters

The SLPP that won a near 2/3 majority at the 2020 general election is in tatters. The party had been so weakened, that Namal Rajapaksa (NR), widely believed to be the current SLPP Chairman Mahinda Rajapaksa’s chosen successor, sought the protection of the NL. Having polled just 342,781 votes (2.57%) at the recently concluded presidential election, NR must have realized his inability to re-enter Parliament from the Hambantota district by winning the required votes as a candidate.

At the last parliamentary election, the SLPP polled 6,853,693 votes (59.09%), the SJB a distant second with 2,771,984 votes (23.90%) and the NPP a hopelessly positioned third with a paltry 445,958 (3.84%). What really influenced the electorate to give such a mega boost to the NPP at the presidential election five years later?

The issue at hand is whether the NPP can attract more voters at the parliamentary election than it did at the presidential.

The SLPP has been badly divided into three groups, with the largest joining hands with Wickremesinghe, the failed independent candidate at the presidential election, to contest the parliamentary polls under the ‘gas cylinder’ symbol. Another group that included Prof. G. L. Peiris and Dallas Alahapperuma placed its faith in the SJB, leaving only a handful SLPPers with NR. Quite a number of former SLPPers had decided against contesting this time with the curtain coming down on war-winning President Mahinda Rajapaksa’s political career. Regardless of him putting a brave face the other day by declaring that he would be back and the SLPP could secure a simple majority, the dye was cast in wake of the humiliating defeat at the presidential election.

The possibility of the SLPP being reduced to just one NL seat cannot be ruled out. The UNP suffered a similar fate at the 2020 general election. The UNP that had 106 MPs in 2015-2019 (Yahapalana Parliament) was unceremoniously reduced to just one NL seat.

The SJB, too, despite putting on a brave face, is facing a huge challenge in at least retaining the same number of seats won at the last election. The SJB, beset by internal strife, may not be able to cope up with another heavy defeat at national level in less than two weeks.

Sarvajana Balaya received quite a significant media attention due to Pivithiru Hela Urumaya (PHU) leader and ex-parliamentarian Udaya Gammanpila’s battle with the NPP government over the refusal on the part of the latter to release two Easter Sunday reports commissioned by AKD’s predecessor Ranil Wickremesinghe.

Gammanpila earned the respect of many for taking an unwavering stand in the continuing controversy but it may not help Sarvajana Balaya at the general election. While the Catholic Church has thrown its weight behind the NPP government in continuing to seek justice for victims of the Easter carnage, without being politically neutral, at least in public, UNP leader Wickremesinghe strongly disapproved of the stand taken by the government and the Church. However, the Church has dismissed Gammanpila’s assertions, as well as the much touted committee reports, out of hand. Therefore, the NPP can be sure of receiving the backing of the influential Catholic belt at the general election.

The outcome of the general election must be examined taking into consideration the unbelievably huge number of voters who skipped the presidential election. About 1/5 of 17,140,354 registered voters refrained from voting at the Sept, election. Although some of them had been overseas, political parties, under any circumstances, cannot ignore the danger in a significant group of electors keeping away from polling booths. Of 17,140,354 electors, only 13,619,916 (79.46 %) had exercised their franchise and of them 300,300 (2.2 %) votes were rejected. The total number of valid votes at the presidential election was 13,319,616 (97.8 % of the total polled).

The NPP is confident that at the forthcoming general election it can definitely improve on its performance at the presidential election. Addressing rallies at Katunayaka (Oct. 20) and Polonnaruwa and Trincomalee (Oct. 23), President AKD called on the electorate to wipe out the Opposition at the general election. The writer was present at an NPP rally at Katunayake where AKD explained why the next Parliament should be overwhelmingly dominated by NPP lawmakers.

The NPP leader, who is also the leader of the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (both are registered political parties recognized by the Election Commission), said that the defeat of no-confidence motions moved against Ravi Karunanayake (UNP), who, as a Minister giving evidence in the bond scam probe, claimed he could not remember the name of the person who had provided him with a luxury penthouse, and Keheliya Rambukwella (SLPP), in June 2016 and Sept. 2023, underscored the need to overhaul Parliament. That couldn’t be achieved unless the new Parliament was filled by members of the NPP, the President declared.

The Joint Opposition-led no-confidence motion against Karunanayake over the Treasury bond scams was defeated by a majority of 94 votes. The no-confidence motion received 51 votes in favour and 145 against, while 28 didn’t turn up at the time of the voting on June 09, 2016. Among the absentees were Mahinda Rajapaksa and the late R. Sampanthan.

The no-confidence motion moved against Keheliya Rambukwella, on Sept. 08, 2023, over corruption charges, pertaining to the procurement of medicine and surgical equipment, was easily defeated by the Wickremesinghe-Rajapaksa government. The motion received 73 votes in favour, while 113 voted against it.

AKD repeatedly declared that the actions of the MPs resulted in Parliament earning the wrath of the public and widely considered as the most hated institution in the country.

Elpitiya PS result

Comments on the result of the Elpitiya Pradeshiya Sabha election, held on Oct. 26, indicated that politicians and other interested parties took advantage of the outcome to pursue their own agendas. Some asserted that the Elpitiya result meant that the NPP’s decline has started quite early and portends the likelihood of a significant setback for the ruling party at the parliamentary election.

Others asserted that the SLPP has done well at Elpitiya though the party suffered a humiliating defeat at the presidential polls.

Eight registered political parties, and one independent group, contested the Elpitiya Local Government election. The UNP was not among them. The 30-member Elpitiya PS was shared by NPP (17,295/15 members), SJB (7,924/06 members), SLPP (3,597/03 members), People’s Alliance (2,612/02 members), People’s United Freedom Alliance (1,350/01), National’s People’s Party (521/01) and Independent Group (2,568/02).

The NPP polled 17,295 votes whereas the seven registered political parties, and the one Independent Group, polled 19,010 voters.

However, pertaining to Elpitiya, the issue at hand is why out of 55, 643 registered voters only 36, 825 exercised their franchise in spite of growing interest in the general election. Of 55,643 registered voters, 18,818 didn’t turn up to vote.

Having compared the Elpitiya PS result with that of the Elpitiya presidential polls outcome, some have come to the conclusion that the SLPP has made a strong comeback by increasing its percentage of votes from 3.56% to 9.89% while both the NPP and the SJB recorded a drop in their respective percentages.

The security scares caused by the alleged threat on Israeli tourists visiting the east coast continues to dominate the media attention, with the Opposition and various other interested parties, too, seeking to exploit the developing situation.

The Opposition found fault with the government over the way the police and higher security authorities had handled the threat, whereas the incumbent administration stressed that the relevant alert was received on Oct. 07 and local authorities were in the process of addressing the threat when the US Embassy issued a public warning, almost three weeks later.

The crux of the matter is whether the Arugam Bay fallout can influence voters at the forthcoming parliamentary election. The issue has to be examined taking into consideration Sri Lanka’s response to the ongoing Israeli war on Gaza and Lebanon and the extremely dangerous developments in Iran-Israel lethal exchanges and the Houthi threat to international shipping.

Unfortunately, those who find fault with Israel for the continuing bloodshed are silent on Hamas invasion of southern Israel in October last year that created an environment conducive for the Jewish State to unleash war on Gaza and then extend hostilities to Lebanan and Iran with the backing of the US and the UK.

Recently, some interested party posted a video of a pro-Israeli march in Batticaloa. The video was meant to deceive the electorate that the AKD government has allowed such a controversial public display of support for Israel in the wake of the ongoing war and security crisis caused by alleged threat on Israelis here. However, inquiries revealed that the video had been taken in 2015 during the Yahapalana administration. A similar demonstration had been organized in 2019 by the same non-Roman Catholic Church group based at No 118, Bar Street, Batticaloa.

The government should be mindful of the accusations directed by the breakaway JVP faction Frontline Socialist Party (FSP), or Peratugaami pakshaya, regarding the government role in facilitating, what the party called, Israeli military tourism. The FSP insists that the project that had been launched during the Wickremesinghe-Rajapaksa administration posed a major security threat and the new government should re-examine the controversial decision.

The government should pay utmost attention to the developments pertaining to the Arugam Bay security threat or be prepared to face the consequences.

by Amarasiri de Silva

After moving to the United States a decade ago, I quickly noticed how people from Middle Eastern, South Asian, and Muslim backgrounds were often viewed through a peculiar, almost mystifying lens. In conversations, media portrayals, and even school settings, these communities were consistently depicted as fundamentally different—exotic, foreign, and, at times, dangerous.

Hollywood frequently portrayed Middle Eastern landscapes as barren deserts filled with shadowy figures, while news stories reduced entire cultures to images of conflict and chaos. This persistent thread of “otherness” seemed to frame anyone with my skin tone, a similar cultural background, or shared religious beliefs as unfamiliar and fundamentally separate from the Western norm. Over time, particularly after reading Said’s book ‘Orientalism,’ I understood that this wasn’t coincidental but part of a legacy of Orientalism. This framework has long influenced how the West perceives and engages with the Middle East. Examining the origins of this mindset, I began to see how these deeply ingrained misrepresentations continue to fuel political and cultural misunderstandings that shape conflicts to this day.

The Middle East conflict is a deeply rooted and multifaceted struggle involving political, religious, and territorial disputes that have spanned centuries. At the heart of many modern interpretations of this conflict lies the pervasive influence of Western intervention, particularly through the lens of orientalism. Edward Said’s groundbreaking work, Orientalism, provides a theoretical framework for understanding how the West’s imperialistic endeavours shaped perceptions of the East, particularly the Middle East, leading to centuries of misrepresentation, exploitation, and ongoing strife. By examining the Middle East conflict through Said’s concepts of Orientalism, we can better comprehend how Western ideologies of superiority and domination have exacerbated and, in many ways, sustained this protracted crisis.

In this essay, I will explore the historical context of the Middle East conflict, focusing on the influence of European colonialism and its lingering impact on modern-day geopolitics in the region. Drawing on Said’s theory of Orientalism, I will analyze how the West’s misrepresentation and dehumanisation of Middle Eastern peoples have contributed to the perpetuation of violence and instability. Through this exploration, it becomes clear that Orientalism, far from being an abstract academic concept, is central to understanding the ongoing power dynamics and struggles in the Middle East.

Historical Context of Western Involvement in the Middle East

To fully appreciate the relevance of Said’s theory to the Middle East conflict, it is essential first to understand the historical context in which Orientalism emerged. During the 19th and early 20th centuries, European colonial powers such as Britain and France expanded their empires into the Middle East, driven by economic interests, strategic motivations, and a desire for political dominance. The British occupation of Egypt, the French control of Algeria, and the carving up of the Ottoman Empire after World War I are just a few examples of how European imperialism shaped the region’s political and social landscape.

One of Said’s key assertions is that colonialism/orientalism was not just a physical act of territorial expansion but also an intellectual and cultural project. In Orientalism, Said argues that the West constructed an image of the “Orient” as backward, irrational, and barbaric to justify its colonisation. This process of “othering” created a stark dichotomy between the “civilised” West and the “primitive” East, allowing European powers to rationalise their domination over Middle Eastern societies.

The 1916 Sykes-Picot Agreement, which divided the Ottoman territories between Britain and France, exemplifies how colonial powers viewed the Middle East as a region to be divided and controlled for their benefit. The arbitrary borders drawn by Western officials without regard for ethnic, religious, or historical realities have had long-lasting consequences, sowing the seeds for many of the conflicts we see in the Middle East today. For example, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, one of the most enduring and contentious disputes in the region, is deeply rooted in the legacy of colonial intervention and Western-imposed territorial divisions.

Orientalism as a Justification for Colonial Domination

At the heart of Said’s Orientalism is the idea that the West’s representations of the East were shaped not by objective observations but by a desire to assert dominance over a perceived “other.” Said explains that Orientalism served as a justification for colonial domination by portraying Middle Eastern societies as incapable of self-governance and in need of Western intervention to “civilise” them.

This sense of Western superiority is reflected in many of the cultural artifacts produced during the colonial era, from travel writing to scholarly works. European artists and writers often depicted the Middle East as a mysterious and exotic land, filled with danger and intrigue, but ultimately inferior to Europe’s rational, orderly world. These representations were not mere fantasies; they had real-world implications, shaping public opinion and government policy in ways that reinforced colonial power structures.

Said highlights the work of European scholars and colonial officers who produced knowledge about the Middle East, noting that this knowledge could have been more neutral. Instead, it was designed to reinforce Western hegemony and justify the exploitation of Middle Eastern resources and people. As Said states, “knowledge of the Orient, because generated out of strength, in a sense creates the Orient, the Oriental, and his world” (Said, 1978, p. 40). In this way, Orientalism became a tool for maintaining Western dominance over the region, as it allowed Europeans to assert control over the land and the narrative surrounding its inhabitants.

The Impact of Orientalism on Western Perceptions of the Middle East

Gaza Strip (Image courtesy of BBC, https://www.bbc.
com/news/newsbeat-44124396)

One of the most insidious effects of Orientalism is the way it has shaped Western perceptions of the Middle East and its people. By consistently portraying the region as violent, irrational, and backward, Orientalism has contributed to a widespread dehumanisation of Middle Eastern individuals and cultures. This dehumanisation is evident in the ways that Western media often depicts conflicts in the Middle East, focusing on images of chaos and destruction while ignoring the underlying causes of the violence or the humanity of those affected by it.

This Orientalist framework has played a significant role in shaping Western policies toward the Middle East, particularly in the context of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and the broader “War on Terror.” The United States, in particular, has frequently invoked Orientalist tropes to justify military interventions in the region, framing its actions as part of a broader effort to “civilise” or “democratize” the Middle East. However, as Said’s work clarifies, these justifications often mask underlying economic and political motivations, such as securing access to oil or maintaining geopolitical influence.

The American involvement in the Middle East post-World War II is deeply tied to Orientalism. The rise of the United States as a global superpower after 1945 coincided with the decolonisation of much of the Middle East. Still, rather than marking an end to Western domination, this period saw the U.S. take on the region’s ” protector ” role. According to Said, the U.S. approached the Middle East much like Britain and France, viewing the region as a place to exert control for strategic purposes, particularly in terms of oil. This is reflected in America’s foreign policies, which have often involved backing autocratic regimes in the name of stability or supporting Israel without fully addressing the complexities of Palestinian sovereignty.

The Middle East Conflict Through the Lens of Orientalism

One of the central components of the Middle East conflict is the Israeli-Palestinian struggle, a dispute with roots that extend back to the early 20th century, when Zionist migration into Palestine began. Western support for the creation of Israel in 1948 is often seen through a humanitarian lens, especially in the wake of the Holocaust. However, Said’s Orientalism allows us to view the establishment of Israel—and the subsequent displacement of Palestinian people—through the framework of colonialism. The Western powers, particularly Britain and the United States, treated Palestine as another piece of territory to be “managed” and divided without adequately considering the rights and aspirations of the indigenous population.

Moreover, Said’s work draws attention to how Western media and political discourse have framed the conflict. Palestinians, especially during periods of violent uprising, have often been portrayed as irrational and inherently violent, while Israeli actions are justified as necessary for self-defense. This asymmetrical portrayal mirrors the Orientalist dichotomy of a rational West versus an irrational, violent East.

In the broader context of the Middle East, Orientalism has also influenced how the West views and interacts with other nations in the region. The Gulf Wars, the invasion of Afghanistan, and the U.S.-led intervention in Iraq can all be seen as extensions of the Orientalist mindset that views the Middle East as a place in need of Western intervention, whether for “liberation” or “stabilisation.” The dehumanisation of Middle Eastern peoples through Orientalist tropes has allowed Western nations to engage in military actions that have had devastating consequences for the civilian populations of these countries, often with little domestic scrutiny or opposition.

Orientalism and the War on Terror

The events of September 11, 2001, and the subsequent War on Terror offer a stark illustration of the enduring power of Orientalist thought in shaping Western policies and perceptions. In the wake of the attacks, the U.S. government launched a series of military interventions across the Middle East and Central Asia, framing these actions as part of a broader struggle between the civilised, democratic West and the barbaric, extremist forces of the East.

This narrative, deeply rooted in Orientalist tropes, ignored the complex political, economic, and social factors that contributed to the rise of extremist groups like Al-Qaeda and ISIS, instead reducing the conflict to a simple clash of civilisations. The War on Terror not only perpetuated violence and instability in the Middle East but also reinforced negative stereotypes about Muslims and Middle Easterners in general, contributing to a rise in Islamophobia and xenophobia in the West.

Moreover, the War on Terror has had devastating consequences for civilian populations in the Middle East, with millions of people killed, displaced, or otherwise affected by the violence. Yet, these human costs are often downplayed or ignored in Western media, which tends to focus on the actions of “terrorists” rather than the suffering of ordinary people. This selective coverage is a direct result of the dehumanisation of Middle Eastern people fostered by Orientalist discourse.

Conclusion

Edward Said’s Orientalism provides a critical lens through which to examine the Middle East conflict, revealing how Western perceptions of the region have been shaped by centuries of colonialism and cultural imperialism. By constructing the Middle East as the “other,” Western powers have justified their domination and exploitation of the region, often at the expense of its people.

The Middle East conflict, particularly the Israeli-Palestinian struggle and the broader War on Terror, cannot be fully understood without recognising the influence of Orientalism. As long as Western nations continue to view the region through this distorted lens, the cycle of violence and misunderstanding is likely to persist. For true peace and stability to be achieved in the Middle East, it is essential to move beyond Orientalist stereotypes and engage with the region in a way that respects its history, cultures, and people on its own terms.

Colonel Nalin Herath

Referring to Israel’s war on Gaza, Defence Ministry Spokesman Colonel Nalin Herath speculated about further escalation though he refrained from commenting on the Jewish State’s relentless attacks in Lebanon and Iranian missile barrages directed at Israel. The Middle East is on the brink of a regional conflict, Herath declared, in an interview with Supreme TV. Since the interview, the war has taken a new turn with Israeli attacks on Lebanon-based UN peacekeepers causing injuries to personnel, including two Sri Lankan military personnel serving there and the killing of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar during a chance encounter between Israeli troops and Hamas. Like LTTE leader Velupillai Prabhakaran, Sinwar, the alleged mastermind of the large-scale Oct. 07 Hamas invasion of southern Israel, the first such invasion of the Jewish territory since the first Arab-Israel war in 1948. Those who compared Sri Lanka’s war against the LTTE and the ongoing war should be able to differentiate the conflicts.

By Shamindra Ferdinando

The urgent need for a comprehensive examination of daunting political-economic-security-social challenges cannot be overestimated. Bankrupt Sri Lanka is at a crossroads as the Jathika Jana Balawegaya (JJB) seeks to consolidate its position with a convincing victory at the parliamentary election scheduled to be conducted in three weeks. Although its triumph is apparently a foregone conclusion, the Janatha Vimukthi Peremuna (JVP)-led JJB, however, faces formidable domestic and external challenges.

With the former main Opposition party Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB) and the former ruling party, the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP, as well as the UNP-backed New Democratic Front (NDF) in disarray, President Anura Kumara Dissanayake’s JJB enjoys a clear advantage in such a scenario.

Regardless of putting up a brave patriotic face, the new party, Sarvajana Balaya does not appear to stand a chance at its first parliamentary election. Going by past experience, the local voters usually go with the trend set by the presidential election. To make matters worse, the opposition is badly split among the SJB, NDF and the SLPP. The SLPP that secured 145 seats, including 17 National List slots at the last parliamentary election, in August 2020, can be reduced to just one NL seat at the forthcoming election. The decision on the part of the Rajapaksas to field generally unproven Namal Rajapaksa on the SLPP NL meant that they realized the grave danger of the party being wiped out. Therefore, the Sarvajana Balaya may find the current ground situation intimidating, though several former SLPP parliamentarians, who have always watched over the country’s national interests, back entrepreneur Dilith Jayaweera’s outfit. However, since the presidential election, Sarvajana Balaya has lost Wimal Weerawansa and Gevindu Cumaratunga.

Defence Ministry spokesman and Director General of the Institute of National Security Studies (INSS) Colonel Nalin Herath recently discussed post-Aragalaya security challenges at different levels, taking into consideration both traditional and non-traditional threats.

During the discussion with Mariella Vandort on ‘Spotlight’ on Supreme TV, the Armoured Corps officer covered related issues, such as ex-military men joining the Russian and Ukrainian militaries, foreign relations where he underscored the need for, what he called, a middle-path, and Sri Lanka’s triumph over separatist Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE), in May 2009 ,against grave doubts expressed by so-called experts.

At the onset, Colonel Herath explained how developments largely depends on sustainable security in an ever-changing globalized world and the responsibility on the part of political and military leaderships to protect the public. Emphasizing the need to neutralize and address both traditional and non-traditional threats, Colonel Herath made reference to the eradication of terrorism.

However, the interviewer failed to take up the origins of separatist terrorism in the ’80s and New Delhi’s role in the terror project that resulted in the formation of half a dozen terrorist groups.

Except the LTTE, the other groups joined the political mainstream during the late Ranasinghe Premadasa’s presidency (1990-1993). Against the backdrop of Anura Kumara Dissanayake, a member of the once-proscribed JVP becoming the President last month, the discussion should have covered the two southern insurgencies in 1971 and 1987-1990. Unfortunately, quite a significant development in our history didn’t receive the required attention. May be it was too dicey a topic to tackle under the current circumstances, especially for a serving military officer. In fact, the emergence of the JJB in mid-2019, a few months before the Presidential Election that was won by wartime Defence Secretary Gotabaya Rajapaksa, could have been examined, leaving out the JVP’s horrid past.

The Sri Lanka Army can quite rightly be proud of its record-defeating two insurgencies and winning a conventional war that the Western powers asserted was impossible. Of course, the Navy and Air Force, as well as police, including its Special Task Force, made an immense contribution, and the annihilation of the enemy (LTTE) couldn’t have been achieved if not for President Mahinda Rajapaksa’s steadfast leadership.

Unforgettable situation report

During the course of the interview, Colonel Herath disclosed that he had been with the 68.1 Brigade assigned to the 53 Division deployed at Vellamullivaikkal, on the Vanni east front, where the combined forces brought the war to a successful end. A smiling MoD spokesman recalled how he signed the situation report that dealt with the death of LTTE leader Velupillai Prabhakaran at 9.32 am on May 19, 2009.

Troops recovered Prabhakaran’s body that morning, the day after the conclusion of the Vanni offensive. Colonel Herath said the vast majority appreciated the successful war effort, though others quite conveniently forgot the sacrifices made by the military.

Responding to another query, the armoured corps officer recalled two incidents in the Vanni theatre where he survived death. Both incidents had been in the ’90s, one in Kilinochchi and the other at Oddusuddan off Nedunkerni, when the LTTE fired at the SLA escorting then de facto Defence Minister Anuruddha Ratwatte.

Incidentally, the writer had been among a group of journalists on their way to cover Minister Ratwatte’s visit to Oddusudan when the LTTE fired mortars. The buffel armoured personnel carrier carrying us ended up in a paddy field in the chaos and for about 30 minutes we were stuck there.

Although a conventional military threat appears to be unlikely, the 2019 Easter Sunday carnage underscores the responsibility on the part of the government to remain alert. Although Vandort made reference to Easter Sunday attacks as in emergency situations such as floods and Covid-19, yet the only post-war incident that grabbed international attention was not discussed. Nearly 50 foreigners perished in coordinated attacks on churches and five-star hotels that exposed the severe shortcomings in the political and military leaderships.

In the context of traditional and non-traditional threats, how do we categorize the unprecedented Easter Sunday bombings or Aragalaya (March –July 2022) that forced the democratically elected President out of Office. That removal, for whatever the reasons which contributed to public anger, cannot justify unconstitutional removal, while the armed forces and police just looked on. Perhaps the Defence Ministry-funded think tank INSS should thoroughly examine Aragalaya with a fine tooth comb. Their findings can be at least shared among the military top brass, State Intelligence Service (SIS), Directorate of Military Intelligence (DMI) and the IGP. The writer, however, understands the dilemma the armed forces are in as the JVP/JJB had been one of the parties directly involved in Aragalaya and, in fact, the only party accused of trying to take control of Parliament by physically storming it, using young activists. The JVP/JJB never denied that accusation. In fact, that accusation or declaration cannot be denied as senior party men were on record urging the people to overrun Parliament.

The SLA had no option but to use brute force to neutralize the serious threat to Parliament in July 2022, days before Gotabaya Rajapaksa gave up office.

Now, the JJB is on the verge of a historic parliamentary election victory. Veteran politician Mahinda Yapa Abeywardena, who had been the Speaker at the time of the Aragalaya, confirmed an external hand in the ouster of President Gotabaya Rajapaksa is in the National List of the NDF. Abeywardena is fifth on that list, headed by former Premier and leader of the Mahajana Eksath Peramuna (MEP) Dinesh Gunawardena. Although Abeywardena conveniently refrained from disclosing the name of the external party involved, the then lawmakers Wimal Weewawansa and retired Rear Admiral Sarath Weerasekera, as well as award-winning writer Sena Thoradeniya, alleged a clear US role in Aragalaya. On behalf of the US, its Ambassador here Julie Chung denied the accusation. However, the whole world knows that former Secretary of State John Kerry crowed publicly about how Washington spent millions of dollars for a regime change operation here in 2015 that ousted Mahinda Rajapaksa, along with similar covert acts to topple governments in several other countries.

No less a person than former President Ranil Wickremesinghe, as well as his predecessor Gotabaya Rajapaksa, too, alleged external interference. The incumbent government owed the public an explanation regarding the status of the investigations into the massive destruction caused by Aragalaya.

Those contesting on the NDF ticket backed Ranil Wickremesinghe at the recently concluded Presidential Election. It was the third defeat Wickremesinghe suffered at a presidential election, the first at the hands of Chandrika Bandaranaike Kumaratunga in 1999, followed by 2005. Mahinda Rajapaksa won the 2005 contest by less than 200,000 votes due to the LTTE and TNA (Tamil National Alliance) ordering the northern voters to boycott that election.

Impact of economic crisis on armed forces

Colonel Herath also discussed the requirement to maintain the military strength even during the economic crises and why sufficient investment of public funds is essential. The Colonel didn’t mince his words when he emphasized such investments shouldn’t be considered a waste of money, under any circumstances. Let us hope the executive and the legislature, in unison, accept the need for a robust military. Colonel Herath stressed the need to enhance fighting capability. Over 15 years after the conclusion of the war, and the retirement of thousands of fighting men, the military must take every possible measure to retain their fighting capability.

Colonel Herath placed the current strength of the SLA at 150,000 down from 205,000 at the time of Sri Lanka’s triumph over terrorism. Perhaps, the new government should explain whether it intends to carry out the Wickremesinghe-Rajapaksa government decision to reduce the SLA strength to 100,000 by 2030.

Amidst the continuing economic difficulties that made expected investments on armed forces impossible, foreign powers have stepped in. The recent visit undertaken by Adm. Steve Koehler, commander, U.S. Pacific Fleet, to Colombo, and the transfer of Beechcraft King Air 360ER aircraft underscored the US commitment to strengthening partnerships in the Indo-Pacific and advancing, what the superpower called, a shared vision for peace and stability by upholding the rules based international order.

The US and its allies, including India, have invested in the Sri Lankan armed forces. The China Bay-based No 03 Maritime Squadron consists of dedicated US and Indian maritime surveillance aircraft. The squadron is expected to take delivery of an ex-Australian Air Force Beech 350 King Air patrol aircraft before the end of this month. The US and its allies seem to be inclined to go ahead with their overall strategy vis a vis Sri Lanka, adopted during Wickremesinghe’s presidency. The US decision to go ahead with the handing over of the fourth US Coastguard Cutter to Sri Lanka, gratis, in the coming year, further emphasized their strategy. All that we can say to the new government is beware of Greeks bearing gifts.

Colonel Herath explained the measures taken by the previous government to address the contentious issue of Sri Lankans on the Russia-Ukraine front. According to him, there had been 470 to 500 officers and men involved on both sides and substantial progress was made during discussions in Moscow and with the Russian Embassy in Colombo. It would be pertinent to mention that the Russia-Ukraine conflict is actually a war between the Russian Federation and the West in Ukraine.

Russian Ambassador to Colombo Levan Dzhagaryan, during a recent conversation with this writer, stressed how the combined West utilized the Ukrainian conflict/territory to achieve their objective of bringing NATO to Russia’s border if not for the counter measures now being implemented by Moscow.

Unfortunately, India, the beneficiary in the Ukraine-Russia war as a result of a massive increase in cheap crude oil purchases since 2022, is trapped in the US strategy.

India’s decision not to sign a Joint Letter supporting the UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres in the wake of the recent declaration by the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Israel designating the Head of the premier world body as “persona non grata”, underscored New Delhi’s dilemma. Among others who refrained from backing Chilean coordinated efforts were the US along with its close allies the UK, Japan and South Korea, considered by some to be its lap dogs.

There is no other way to explain India backing Ukrainian and Israeli war efforts as discussed by the international media. But, the US, British and Australian reactions to the continuing diplomatic row between India and Canada over the killing of Sikh activist and naturalized Canadian citizen Hardee Singh Nijjar in British Columbia last year is a grim reminder of Western double standards.

Canadian Premier Justin Trudeau’s Oct. 15 declaration on the conduct of India and its representatives based in Canada underscored Ottawa’s stand that it wouldn’t under any circumstances accept the Modi government’s actions. The Canadian declaration that Indian High Commissioner Sanjay Kumar Verma had a hand in the Nijjar affair caused irreparable damage to Canada –India relations.

Perhaps Canada, having alleged Sri Lanka committed genocide during war against Tamil separatism, should inquire how many ex-Sri Lankan terrorists received Canadian citizenship. Similarly, many wanted for terrorism in India are Canadian passport holders now.

Post-Aragalaya development

The moving of the Court of Appeal against the Defence Ministry decision to collect weapons issued for personal protection under license to selected persons is an eye-opener. The petition underscores the failure on the part of the then government and the security establishment to provide security during Aragalaya when law and order simply disintegrated.

Close on the heels of Anura Kumara Dissanayake’s victory at the Sept. 21 Presidential Election, the Defence Ministry ordered those having licensed weapons and ammunition to hand them over to the Commercial Explosive Firearms and Ammunition Procurement Unit (CEFAP) at Sri Lanka Navy camp, in Welisara, before Nov. 07, this year.

The Defence Ministry declared that this order did not apply for weapons used for the protection of property/crop and sports activities.

H.D. Navinthaka de Silva, CEO of Avenra Hotel Group, in his petition, argued that the Defence Ministry decision posed a significant risk to his safety.

The Secretary of the Ministry of Defence, the Director of the State Intelligence Service, and the Acting Inspector General of Police have been named as respondents in the case. Filed through Attorney-at-Law Sanath Wijayawardena, the petition claimed that Navinthaka de Silva obtained licensed firearms from the Ministry of Defence around 2012 or 2013 due to serious personal threats.

The petitioner emphasized that his businesses, including hotels, suffered considerable damages during recent political unrest, compounding his security concerns.

Declaring that his plea for reconsidering the Defence Ministry decision pertaining to him, petitioner has requested the Court of Appeal to issue a writ order invalidating the Defence Ministry’s order. The petitioner also sought an interim injunction be issued suspending the implementation of the directive until a final decision is reached after the hearing of his case.

Grandeeza, one of the hotels owned by the Avenra Hotel Group situated at Katunayake, on the main Colombo-Negombo road, and just 15 minutes walking distance from the Katunayake airbase, was set on fire and looted in broad daylight. The same fate befell two other hotels owned by them in the Negombo division. The destruction caused by Aragalaya had never been properly established and none of those responsible was brought before a court of law though some progress was made in respect of MP Atukorale’s killing in May 2022.

The operation carried out by Aragalaya was so meticulously planned that perhaps they would have gone ahead with countrywide attacks even if Temple Trees didn’t make the foolish decision to unleash SLPP goons on the Galle Face protesters. As that was used as the pretext to launch violence against the then SLPP government politicians and their friends and relatives with meticulous intelligence from the evening of May 09, 2022, leaving properties looted and torched across the country.

The Avenra CEO’s petition reminds the government of its fundamental responsibility to take all possible measures to protect citizens.