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NDB shows strong growth, rising investment potential

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In a striking testament to both corporate resilience and a recovering macroeconomic environment, the National Development Bank (NDB) has delivered a set of third-quarter results for 2025 that far exceed market expectations. The figures, detailed in a recent analysis by First Capital Research (FCR), paint a picture of a financial institution leveraging favourable conditions to accelerate growth, justify upward revisions in valuation, and present a compelling case to investors for long-term value creation.

The headline figure is arresting: a 145.6% year-on-year surge in earnings for 3Q2025. This explosive growth was primarily engineered by a dual engine of stronger net interest income, which grew 13.8% YoY to LKR 9.1 billion, and a significant 24.3% rise in net fee and commission income. The former benefits directly from the prevailing low-interest-rate environment, which has helped margins and stimulated borrowing, while the latter points to broad-based business momentum across the bank’s operations, from trade finance to its digital platforms. A remarkable leap in other income – to LKR 1.04 billion from a mere LKR 27.7 million a year earlier – further bolstered the bottom line.

Perhaps as encouraging as the income growth is the notable improvement in credit quality. Impairment charges declined by a substantial 46.9% year-on-year, a clear signal of improving macroeconomic conditions and a healthier loan book. This trend underscores a banking sector that is emerging from the shadows of past economic stress with greater stability.

Buoyed by this outperformance, FCR has significantly revised its earnings forecasts upward. Their 2025 estimate has been lifted by 33.5% to LKR 11.6 billion, and the 2026 forecast by 26.1% to LKR 13.2 billion. This positive reassessment flows directly into the bank’s perceived fair value. FCR now assigns a fair value of LKR 180.0 per share for 2025, implying a 27% potential upside, and LKR 200.0 for 2026, suggesting a 42% increase from current levels. When expected dividend per share (DPS) returns are included, the total return projections become even more attractive, estimated at 33% for 2025 and 48% for 2026.

First Capital maintains a “BUY” recommendation on NDB, citing a constructive outlook founded on a favourable macro backdrop and stable interest-rate trends. These factors are expected to continue fuelling loan book expansion. Furthermore, growth in trade finance and an accelerating adoption of digital banking services are anticipated to provide sustained momentum to fee-based earnings, diversifying the bank’s revenue streams.

However, the report does not ignore the clouds on the horizon. It highlights near-term risks to asset quality, particularly stemming from recent adverse weather events. Given NDB’s sizable exposure to the Small and Medium Enterprise (SME) sector, which is often vulnerable to such disruptions, the analysis expects a possible uptick in non-performing loans (NPLs) in the coming quarters. This is a prudent note of caution for investors, emphasizing that the recovery path may not be entirely smooth.

Nevertheless, the overarching narrative from these results is one of a bank positioned at the confluence of economic recovery and strategic execution. NDB appears to be translating improved national economic indicators into robust financial performance. Its “resilient base,” demonstrated by strengthening fundamentals and declining impairments, provides the foundation for “rising potential,” captured in the revised earnings and fair value estimates.

For the investing public, the message from this analysis is clear: NDB is presented as a institution harnessing the winds of economic change to propel itself forward. While mindful of sector-specific risks, the data suggests a strong trajectory for growth and value appreciation, making it a standout candidate for potential investors.

By Sanath Nanayakkare



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Diplomatic thaw in Middle East sparks hope for Sri Lankan tea exports

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Iran and the Middle East are important markets for Sri Lankan tea

Amid softening diplomatic rhetoric between the United States and Iran, a senior economist told The Island Financial Review yesterday that the stability of Sri Lanka’s tea exports to the Middle East, particularly Iran, would be maintained.

The economist, who closely follows regional developments, pointed to recent statements by Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and U.S. President Donald Trump as signs of de-escalation. Araghchi denied plans to execute anti-government protesters, while Trump indicated he had received assurances that killings had stopped and that the U.S. was “watching the process.”

“When geopolitical tensions ease, trade channels stabilise,” the economist said. “Iran and the Middle East are important markets for Sri Lankan tea. Any reduction in political risk is likely to support demand and reduce vulnerability in our export earnings,” he added.

The comments come against the backdrop of this week’s Colombo tea auction, where offerings totalled 6.0 million kilograms. The auction report noted “less activity from Iran and the Middle Eastern markets following recent restrictions in trading conditions,” reflecting the sensitivity of tea exports to regional instability.

Western Slopes and Nuwara Eliya teas showed mixed trends, with some grades firm and others declining. High and Medium Grown CTC teas sold around previous levels, while Low Grown varieties were easier by up to Rs. 20 per kg. Ex-Estate offerings remained steady at 0.74 million kilograms, with no significant change in quality, according to Forbes and Walker Research.

Low Growns, which accounted for approximately 2.4 million kilograms, saw varied demand: the Leafy category was quieter, while Semi-Leafy met with fair interest. Tippy teas faced pressure, especially in the Premium catalogue, where a lack of suitable bids left many unsold.

Selective demand was noted from shippers to the UK, Europe, and South Africa, while markets in Japan, China, the Middle East, and the CIS were reasonably active mostly at lower levels, Forbes and Walker said.

The economist added that while global tea markets remain volatile, any sustained calm in the Middle East could help restore buyer confidence from Iran – a key destination for Sri Lankan Orthodox teas.

“We are not out of the woods yet, but the signs are encouraging,” he said. “If the diplomatic tone continues to improve, we could see firmer demand from the region in the coming weeks,” he said.

By Sanath Nanayakkare

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Call for stepped-up economic engagement between SL and Maldives

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Sudesh Mendis; ‘Potential in steppedup SL-Maldives business links

Sri Lanka is looking to significantly expand its commercial engagement with the Maldives, with business leaders calling for a more focused strategy to capitalise on growing opportunities in trade, services and tourism-linked investments.

Immediate Past President of the Sri Lanka-Maldives Business Council Sudesh Mendis said that the Maldives remains a high-potential market for Sri Lankan exporters and service providers, particularly in construction materials, food and beverage supplies, logistics and professional services aligned with the island nation’s expanding tourism and infrastructure sectors.

“The Maldives offers a demand-driven market where Sri Lankan products and services already enjoy strong acceptance, Mendis said, noting that geographical proximity and long-standing business ties give Sri Lanka a natural competitive advantage.

He said continued resort development, urban housing projects and public infrastructure investments in the Maldives have sustained demand for Sri Lankan goods, while services such as engineering, consultancy and skilled manpower also present room for growth.

However, Mendis stressed that logistical inefficiencies and administrative bottlenecks continue to limit expansion. “Improving shipping connectivity, reducing customs delays and ensuring smoother payment mechanisms are essential if Sri Lankan businesses are to scale up operations, he said.

Tourism collaboration was identified as another underdeveloped area, with Sri Lanka and the Maldives increasingly viewed as complementary destinations rather than rivals. Joint marketing initiatives and multi-destination travel packages could help increase visitor arrivals to both countries, Mendis added.

He also called for stronger private-sector leadership through regular trade missions, sector-focused business forums and targeted policy support to sustain momentum.

“With a coordinated and commercially driven approach, Sri Lanka can substantially deepen its economic presence in the Maldivian market, Mendis said.

Sri Lanka and the Maldives have maintained close economic relations, with bilateral trade expected to gain further traction as regional connectivity improves.

By Ifham Nizam

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News of IMF delegation’s visit to SL brings cheer to bourse

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The CSE commenced trading yesterday on a negative note due to profit-takings but later turned positive, when sections of the media reported that an IMF delegation is to visit Sri Lanka next week to facilitate the fifth review of the extended fund facility to Sri Lanka.

Amid those developments both indices moved upwards. The All Share Price Index went up by 41.42 points, while the S and P SL20 rose by 25.28 points.

Turnover stood at Rs 4.73 billion with ten crossings. Top seven crossings were reported in DFCC, which crossed 4.4 million shares to the tune of Rs 701 million and its shares traded at Rs 159, HNB 250,000 shares crossed for Rs 105 million; its shares traded at Rs 420, Sierra Cables 2 million shares crossed for Rs 75 million; its shares traded at Rs 37.57, Seylan Bank 666,000 shares crossed for Rs 73.4 million; its shares traded at Rs 110.50.

Commercial Bank 300,000 shares crossed for Rs 57.2 million; its shares traded at Rs 225, Sampath Bank 300,000 shares crossed to the tune of Rs 46.6 million; its shares traded at Rs 155 and Ambeon Capital 1 million shares crossed for Rs 42 million; its shares traded at Rs 43.

In the retail market top seven companies that have mainly contributed to the turnover were; ACL Cables Rs 171 million (1.7 million shares traded), Commercial Bank Rs 153 million (686,000 shares traded), Sierra Cables Rs 130 million (3.5 million shares traded), Sampath Bank Rs 109 million (703,000 shares traded) , HNB Rs 109 million (250,000 shares traded), Lanka Credit and Business Finance Rs 76 million (8.2 million shares traded) and HNB (Non-Voting) Rs 76 million (213,000 shares traded). During the day 132 million share volumes changed hands in 37857 transactions.

It is said that the banking and finance sector led the market, especially HNB and Commercial Bank, while construction related companies, especially Sierra Cables, also performed well at the floor.

The manufacturing and travel and tourism sectors also performed well.

Yesterday the rupee was quoted at Rs 309.50/60 to the US dollar in the spot market weaker from Rs 309.35/50 Wednesday, having depreciated in recent weeks, dealers said, while bond yields were broadly steady.

The telegraphic transfer rates for the American dollar were 305.9000 buying, 312.9000 selling; the British pound was 408.2980 buying, and 419.6162 selling, and the euro was 352.7488 buying, 364.1370 selling.

By Hiran H Senewiratne

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