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Lanka’s growth to contract by 7.6% in 2022 – ADB

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The Asian Development Bank (ADB) says Sri Lanka’s growth is forecast to contract by 7.6% in 2022 and economic activity will remain subdued in 2023.In its latest Asian Development Outlook Supplement, the ADB said the island nation is beset with multifaceted and deepening challenges emanating from long-standing fiscal and current account deficits that have led to the sovereign debt and balance-of-payment crises.

According to the report, the scarcity of foreign exchange has triggered an acute energy crisis, affecting economic activity in all sectors of the economy, threatened food security, created shortages of other essentials, and hit consumer and investor confidence.The detrimental effects of a chemical fertilizer ban on agriculture compounded the effects of the balance-of-payments crisis and double-digit inflation is squeezing disposable income and discouraging investment, the ADB said further.

It added that the tight monetary policy to rein in inflation, revenue-based fiscal consolidation, and expenditure rationalization are also slowing the economy.

“Because of these factors, Sri Lanka’s growth is forecast to contract by 7.6% in 2022 and economic activity will remain subdued in 2023. Risks to the forecast are significant and stem from delays in securing external financing, rising commodity prices, a weaker global economy, and spillovers from the debt crisis on the banking industry.”

The ADB also mentioned that the economic conditions in Sri Lanka have deteriorated drastically since Asian Development Outlook 2022 (ADO 2022) published this April, on a sharp fall in usable reserves, causing the government to suspend external public debt servicing (excluding multilateral debt) on April 12 and default on its sovereign debt on May 18 – the country’s first sovereign debt default.

In Sri Lanka, inflationary pressures have been dramatic, the bank pointed out, adding that “CPI headline inflation averaged 28.6% in the first half of 2022 on multiple fuel price hikes, higher food prices because of poor harvests, supply chain disruptions, shortages caused by a foreign exchange squeeze, and a depreciating exchange rate. Core inflation increased from 9.9% in January to 39.9% in June, averaging 20.7% in the first half—an indication that underlying inflationary pressures are high. Because of this, the inflation forecast is revised up to 33.6% for 2022 and another year of double-digit inflation is expected in 2023.”

The ADB meanwhile lowered South Asia’s growth forecast from 7% to 6.5% for the year 2022, and from 7.4% to 7.1% for the year 2023 mainly due to the economic crisis in Sri Lanka and the high inflation and associated monetary tightening in India.The ADB said the economic fallout from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on the most of developing Asia has increased, although the impact of Covid-19 has declined across the region.According to ADB’s report, war-induced supply disruptions and escalating sanctions imposed on the Russian Federation have led to global commodity prices spiking and remaining higher than 2021’s already elevated levels.

“As a result, inflationary pressures have increased in many regional economies. Headline inflation is at double-digit levels in most of the Caucasus and Central Asia, in Mongolia in East Asia, in Pakistan and Sri Lanka in South Asia, and in the Lao People’s Democratic Republic (Lao DPR) and Myanmar in Southeast Asia. Although inflation in India, at 7%, is above the 2% – 6% target range of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), headline and core inflation in the rest of developing Asia’s large economies remain manageable. So, for the region as a whole, inflation remains moderate on average and much lower than elsewhere in the world.”



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INS TARANGINI makes port call in Trincomalee

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The Sail Training Ship of the Indian Navy, INS TARANGINI arrived at the Port of Trincomalee on a formal training visit on 27 Feb 26. The visiting ship was welcomed by the Sri Lanka Navy (SLN) in compliance with time-honoured naval traditions.

INS TARANGINI is a 54m long platform which is manned by a crew of 36 and is commanded by Commander Nitin Gajjar.

Meanwhile, Officer Under-trainees and Sea Cadets are expected to participate in sail training familiarization programmes aboard the ship and observe its operational functions during its stay in the island.

Furthermore, the ship’s crew is scheduled to take part in programmes organized by the Sri Lanka Navy to enhance camaraderie between the two navies, as well as visit several tourist attractions in the country.

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Renewed Lanka’s Easter Bombing probe puts NTJ’s South India radicalisation network back under lens

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New Delhi (IANS):The arrest of Sri Lanka’s former Intelligence chief, Retired Major-General Suresh Sallay is a turning point in the investigations into the 2019 Easter Sunday bombings that killed 279 people.

The move was a bold one taken by President Anura Kumara Dissanayake who won the presidency in 2024.

He had promised that all persons involved in the attack would be brought to justice.

Sallay was made State Intelligence Service (SIS) chief in 2019 after Gotabaya Rajapaksa became President.

The allegation against Sallay was that he had permitted the attack to take place with the intention of influencing that year’s presidential election, which was eventually won by Rajapaksa.

Sallay had become a prominent figure in Sri Lanka and was widely credited with dismantling the LTTE. His arrest has led to a political storm and many state that it could revive tensions relating to the LTTE.

Ali Sabry, former Sri Lankan Minister for Foreign Affairs said that the developments are deeply troubling.

An Indian official said that the developments in Sri Lanka are being monitored closely.

On the question whether the LTTE issue would come back into the picture following the arrest of Sallay, the officer said that attempts are being made, but it would be very tough.

There have been several cases that the National Investigation Agency (NIA) has been probing concerning the revival of the LTTE.

The ISI, too, has tried its hand in ensuring the revival of the LTTE, but has not been successful so far.

To prevent the revival of the LTTE, both India and Sri Lanka have been working very closely.

Another official explained that the current ties with Sri Lanka have gone from ideological to an investment-led partnership.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Dissanayake share a pragmatic relationship and this has gone a long way in ensuring cooperation on all fields including security, the official explained.

While some in Sri Lanka do not subscribe to Dissanayake’s decision on Sallay, the fact is that the Easter Bombing case has to be probed from every possible angle.

An Intelligence Bureau official says that a major concern today are the activities of the National Thowheeth Jama’ath (NTJ) and Jamathei Millathu Ibrahim (JMI), the two outfits responsible for this attack.

The NTJ in particular has a vast presence in South India and has managed to radicalise a large number of youth in Tamil Nadu and Kerala.

The mastermind of the attack, Mohammad Zahran Hashim was a frequent visitor to Tamil Nadu. He was also responsible for the radicalisation of Jamesha Mubeen who carried out an unsuccessful attempt to bomb a temple in Coimbatore in 2022.

The Indian agencies have been actively pursuing the role played by Hashim. A probe by the NIA in the South India radicalisation case revealed that the entire plot was being run by Hashim from Sri Lanka.

At least 50 of the 100 radicalisation videos seized by the agency were discourses by Hashim, who had close links with the Islamic State.

Officials say that Sallay could provide details to investigators about the module that Hashim ran.

This would come in handy for the Indian agencies who are probing cases directly linked to the NTJ in South India.

Hashim, who was the ring leader for the suicide bombers during the Easter Bombing had spent a considerable amount of time in India.

The Indian agencies would want to learn if any of the locals that Hashim interacted with had any idea about the Easter Bombings.

While in India, Hashim had focussed his radicalisation programmes mainly at Mallapuram, Coimbatore, Nagapattinam, Kanyakumari, Ramnathpuram, Vellore, Trichy and Thirunelveli, the NIA probe found.

Pallay has for now denied any links to the Easter Bombings.

Indian officials say that they do not want to comment on Pallay and his alleged links.However, it is important that the bombings are probed thoroughly since the activities of the NTJ have a direct bearing on India, particularly the southern states, the official also added.

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Sajith warns: Don’t let trade union action stall cyclone relief

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Sajith Premadasa

Opposition and SJB Leader Sajith Premadasa on Friday stressed that relief efforts for communities affected by Cyclone Ditwah must not be derailed by internal disputes, as several trade unions announced plans to withdraw from disaster relief duties.

Taking to ‘X’, Premadasa called on the Government to prioritise coordination and ensure uninterrupted assistance to families still awaiting aid.

“The Government must work closely with officers on the ground to ensure coordination and uninterrupted support. When families are still waiting, how can we allow for this confusion?” he questioned, emphasising that relief measures should not be delayed under any circumstances.

His remarks follow the decision by several trade unions representing Government officers engaged in disaster relief operations to launch trade union action beginning from Friday (27 February).

The unions announced their withdrawal from relief-related duties, citing unresolved issues affecting officers involved in post-disaster operations.

According to the unions, more than 93 days have elapsed since the widespread destruction caused by Cyclone Ditwah. During this period, disaster relief officers and Grama Niladharis have worked continuously, day and night, acting as key coordinators between the Government and affected communities. However, they claim that authorities have failed to adequately address longstanding concerns relating to officers engaged in relief work.

Meanwhile, Secretary to the President Nandika Sanath Kumanayake yesterday underscored the need to expedite relief and recovery initiatives.

Chairing a progress review meeting of the National Council for Disaster Management, he called for strengthened coordination among State institutions responsible for disaster response, noting that effective inter-agency collaboration is critical to delivering timely assistance to affected communities.

Efforts to accelerate recovery and maintain continuity in relief operations are ongoing.

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