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From middle income to least developed class

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by Usvatte-aratchi

into that land of deprivation, poverty and woe have our leaders delivered this land of promise and plenty.’ I was a member of the Committee for Development Policy (CDP), a group of 24 economists and sociologists, appointed by the Secretary-General of UN, on their own merit, to advise him on development policy. One of their mandates was to review progress or lack thereof in least developed countries every two years and recommend the movement of countries between categories. I do not recall any country that applied that they be reclassified from middle income category to least developed category. There were two countries: Cape Verde in the Atlantic and the Maldives, our neighbour that sought reclassification as developed countries. Income per capita in Cape Verde had risen fast with the exploitation of oil offshore. Maldives had its income increase with the rise in the arrival of tourists. It did not seem to us that their economies were highly vulnerable to natural disasters and vagaries in international trade, as many island economies in the South Pacific and raw material export dependant economies south of Sahara were. (We did not anticipate that a well-established middle-income country could be ground down to poverty by a family of uneducated brigands elected to office by a highly literate electorate.) Although the human development indicators of Cape Verde and the Maldives were well below those of middle-income countries, they were re-classified on strong presentation by those two countries. In other words, countries were keen on climbing the ladder and not in shooting down along a snake.

The idea of least developed countries grew in the 1960s, nursed by Jan Tinbergen of the Netherlands and further nourished by Gamani Corea, both of whom were, Chairman of CDP, in succession. The concessions they (LDCs)were to enjoy grew over time after being introduced in the First Development Decade, a resolution adopted by the General Assembly in 1961. Much of analytical and policy work about LDCs came to be done in a large Division of the UNCTAD Secretariat.

There were a few main considerations that mattered for a country to be classified as least developed and be entitled to international aid flows and loans at rates of interest lower than in international capital markets. Those considerations included the following. Per capita income over several years was lower than a given threshold and the economy was not diversified, that their level of human development was low in comparison and that their economies were vulnerable to natural disasters or vagaries in international trade. Low human capital development was evident from the average expectation of life at birth, infant mortality and maternal mortality rates and literacy, including that of girls. These had to be low to qualify as a least developed country. These numbers were not used mechanically but only after a consideration of factors that contributed to the outcome. Most people here, except the Cabinet of Ministers and their advisors know that human development levels in this country, for more than a generation now, have been stellar high, no thanks to the Family of thieves, morons and rogues that ruled us during the last two decades. We should not give them a chance to bring down the edifice that had been put up over decades with the sweat of taxpayers. A fall in income per capita in difficult economic circumstances will not convince CDP to reclassify an economy.

Further, unless rules have changed since my time, it was the General Assembly of the UN, who after a resolution from ECOSOC who received reports from CDP to the Secretary-General that a resolution would be adopted to re-classify a country. Although the voice of all specialised agencies, who were normally present at meetings of CDP, were heard they were there for purposes of consultation. It was the CDP that made decisions which were transmitted to ECOSOC and the Secretary-General. It is a bit baffling why the Cabinet decided to ask the World Bank for a decision. There must be dozens of officers in the public service who must know these common rules in the UN. The book to read is Caught in a trap (Economica, 2009) written by Patrick Guillaumont, a well-known economist from France and a member of the CDP, at the same time as I was.



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Opinion

Haphazard demolition in Nugegoda and deathtraps

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A haphazardly demolished building

The proposed expansion of the Kelani Valley railway line has prompted the squatters to demolish the buildings and the above photograph depicts the ad-hoc manner in which a building in the heart of Nugegoda town (No 39 Poorwarama Road) has been haphazardly demolished posing a risk to the general public. Residents say that the live electric wire has not been disconnected and the half-demolished structure is on the verge of collapse, causing inevitable fatal damages.

Over to the Railway Department, Kotte Municipality Ceylon Electricity Board and the Nugegoda Police.

Athula Ranasinghe,

Nugegoda.

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Opinion

Aviation and doctors on Strike

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Crash in Sioux city. Image courtesy Bureau of Aircraft Accident Archies.

On July 19, 1989, United Airlines Flight 232 departed Denver, Colorado for Chicago, Illinois. The forecast weather was fine. Unfortunately, engine no. 2 – the middle engine in the tail of the three-engined McDonnell Douglas DC 10 – suffered an explosive failure of the fan disk, resulting in all three hydraulic system lines to the aircraft’s control surfaces being severed. This rendered the DC-10 uncontrollable except by the highly unorthodox use of differential thrust on the remaining two serviceable engines mounted on the wings.

Consequently, the aircraft was forced to divert to Sioux City, Iowa to attempt an emergency crash landing. But the crew lost control at the last moment and the airplane crashed. Out of a total of 296 passengers and crew, 185 survived.

The National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) declared after an investigation that besides the skill of the operating crew, one significant factor in the survival rate was that hospitals in proximity to the airport were experiencing a change of shifts and therefore able to co-opt the outgoing and incoming shift workers to take over the additional workload of attending to crash victims.

One wonders what would have happened if an overflying aircraft diverted to MRIA-Mattala, BIA-Colombo, Colombo International Airport Ratmalana (CIAR) or Palaly Airport, KKS during the doctors’ strike in the 24 hours starting March 12, 2025? Would the authorities have been able to cope? International airlines (over a hundred a day) are paying in dollars to overfly and file Sri Lankan airports as en route alternates (diversion airports).

Doctors in hospitals in the vicinity of the above-named international airports cannot be allowed to go on strike, and their services deemed essential. Even scheduled flights to those airports could be involved in an accident, with injured passengers at risk of not receiving prompt medical attention.

The civil aviation regulator in this country seems to be sitting fat, dumb, and happy, as we say in aviation.

Guwan Seeya

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Opinion

HW Cave saw Nanu Oya – Nuwara rail track as “exquisite”

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Plans to resurrect the Nanu Oya – Nuwara Eliya rail track are welcome. The magnificent views from the train have been described by H W Cave in his book The Ceylon Government Railway (1910):

‘The pass by which Nuwara Eliya is reached is one of the most exquisite things in Ceylon. In traversing its length, the line makes a further ascent of one thousand feet in six miles. The curves and windings necessary to accomplish this are the most intricate on the whole railway and frequently have a radius of only eighty feet. On the right side of the deep mountain gorge we ascend amongst the tea bushes of the Edinburgh estate, and at length emerge upon a road, which the line shares with the cart traffic for about a mile. In the depths of the defile flows the Nanuoya river, foaming amongst huge boulders of rock that have descended from the sides of the mountains, and bordered by tree ferns, innumerable and brilliant trees of the primeval forest which clothe the face of the heights. In this land of no seasons their stages of growth are denoted by the varying tints of scarlet, gold, crimson, sallow green, and most strikingly of all, a rich claret colour, the chief glory of the Keena tree’.

However, as in colonial times, the railway should be available for both tourists and locals so that splendid vista can be enjoyed by all.

Dr R P Fernando
Epsom,
UK

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