By Shamindra Ferdinando

Against the backdrop of realignment of political parties represented in Parliament in the run-up to the presidential election on Sept. 21, it would be pertinent to examine the status of the electorate. Would the electorate follow their representatives in Parliament as they switched allegiance to various presidential candidates? Could they be influenced by turncoat parliamentarians whose political intentions generally depend on personal benefits? That is the ugly truth the electorate must come to terms with.

There’ll be about 1.1 million new voters among 17.1 mn eligible to vote at the presidential election.

Before we discuss the forthcoming presidential poll, let me remind the readers of the composition of the current Parliament. The Parliament consists of 196 elected on a district basis and 29 chosen from the National List.

Fifteen recognized political parties are represented in the Parliament. The following are the political parties and the number of seats they won at the last parliamentary election conducted in August 2020. The Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP/145 seats), Samagi Jana Balwegaya (SJB/54), Illankai Thamil Arasu Kadchi (ITAK/10), Jathika Jana Balawegaya (JJB/03), Eelam People’s Democratic Party (EPDP/02), Ahila Ilankai Thamil Congress (AITC/02) and the remaining nine parties, namely Thamil Makkal Viduthalai Pulikal (TMVP), Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP), Muslim National Alliance (MNA), Thamil Makkal Thesiya Kuttani (TMTK), All Ceylon Makkal Congress (ACMC), National Congress (NC), Sri Lanka Muslim Congress (SLMC), United National Party (UNP) and Our Power of People Party (OPPP) secured one seat each.

The number of seats mentioned above included National List slots. Of the 29 NL slots, the SLPP secured 17 and the SJB 07 whereas five other parties-ITAK, JJB, AITC, UNP and OPPP obtained one each.

However, the SLPP has been fragmented to such an extent and in disarray, the party faces a catastrophic situation. The Rajapaksas-led SLPP that handsomely won the last Local Government polls (Feb. 2018), Presidential Polls (Nov. 2019) and the General Election (Aug. 2020) is approaching a real moment of truth. In spite of the likes of its National Organizer Namal Rajapaksa, Johnston Fernando and retired Navy Chief of Staff Sarath Weerasekera continuing to put on a brave face, the ground situation is deteriorating rapidly and the party seems to be in dire straits.

The failure on the part of the ruling party to name its presidential candidate, ahead of President Ranil Wickremesinghe’s declaration of him as an independent candidate, exposed the SLPP badly.

The SLPP has repeatedly assured that its candidate would be disclosed today (07). Business tycoon Dhammika Perera, who had been accommodated in the SLPP National List, in June 2022, in place of Basil Rajapaksa, is widely believed to be their choice. Newcomer Perera, who served as Investment Promotion Minister during Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s presidency (June-July 2022), faces a daunting challenge in obtaining a respectable final count if the former people’s president Mahinda Rajapaksa, too, has been abandoned by his ardent supporters.

Lawmaker Namal Rajapaksa seems still confident that their candidate Dhammika Perera, or a last minute change, could still win the presidential race. With the SLPP’s backing, wartime Defence Secretary Gotabaya Rajapaksa, who had absolutely no experience in politics, secured a staggering 6.9 mn at the last presidential poll. With the original SLPP parliamentary group divided among presidential candidates, UNP leader Ranil Wickremesinghe, SJB leader Sajith Premadasa, MJP leader Dilith Jayaweera and yet to be named SLPP contestant, in terms of numbers, the incumbent President seems to be in the lead. But that could be a grave mistake on the part of the Wickremesinghe’s camp. The number of turncoats does not necessarily mean voters will follow especially because of undying loyalty professed by many to ex-President Mahinda. Even after he was trounced at the January 2015 presidential election and he silently withdrew into his Medamulana abode, it was the ordinary Sinhala masses having realized the anti-national frauds who were elected to replace Rajapaksas, went in their hundreds, if not thousands, daily, as if in pilgrimage, to plead with him to return to national politics. What would have swayed the masses was his natural appeal in his ability to interact with them. He was one leader who made Temple Trees an open house for ordinary people to come and have a meal at their leader’s palace, at least on Wesak days each year. He actually showed his mettle to not only to our masses, but to the whole world when he literally told a delegation of powerful entities from the West, like then British Foreign Secretary David Miliband and French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner, to get lost when they tried to arm twist him into saving terrorist numero uno Velupillai Prabhakaran and his band as they were facing total annihilation in Wanni in 2009.

The SLPP appears to be confident that the voters wouldn’t go along with those who had treacherously pledged their support to Wickremesinghe, Premadasa and Dilith Jayaweera at the expense of the party they represented in Parliament. Dr. Wijeyadasa Rajapakshe, PC, another SLPP MP, is in the fray as the candidate of the National Democratic Front (NDF). Former Justice Minister Rajapakshe is unlikely to attract any sitting MPs representing the SLPP or any other party. He must be relying on his sizeable caste vote to make a strong showing rather than an actual victory.

Impact of Aragalaya on voters

In the absence of proper examination of the events leading to Aragalaya, or change of government through unconstitutional means in July 2022, the SLPP or any other political party represented in Parliament lacked understanding of the ground situation. Therefore, political parties face the first national election in less than 50 days without proper comprehension of the developing situation and the forces working behind the scene.

Instead of seeking political advantage, political parties, represented in Parliament, should have sought to examine the circumstances leading to the eruption of the violent public protest campaign outside President Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s residence at Pangiriwatte, Mirihana, on the night of March 31, 2022. Even though the US definitely wanted to oust Gotabaya Rajapaksa, the global power couldn’t have achieved its objectives without the SLPP’s unintentional or deliberately flawed decisions contributing to the crisis with economic hitmen working within.

The SLPP parliamentary group cannot absolve itself of the responsibility for the ruination of the economy. Similarly, the UNP and SJB, under any circumstances, cannot deny their culpability for the massive Treasury bond scams perpetrated by the Yahapalana regime in 2015 (February) and 2016 (March) under the then Premier Ranil Wickremesinghe’s watch and still unexplained commercial borrowings. Over USD 10,000 million in new International Sovereign Bonds at high interest that were taken between 2015 and 2019 broke the economy.

The truth is an explosive mixture of domestic and international issues brought Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s government under pressure. The operation got underway within a week after Gotabaya Rajapaksa won the 2019 presidential election with the Swiss Embassy, in Colombo, staging the Garnier Francis drama that even captured the attention of the New York Times.

The swift and decisive exposure of the Swiss and their local counterparts should have alerted the Gotabaya Rajapaksa administration. Unfortunately, the powers that be caused a catastrophic situation by a series of ill-fated decisions. The Covid-19 pandemic made the situation far worse, coupled with unprecedented tax cuts, including pruning of Value Added Tax (VAT) from 15% to 8%, crippled the national economy. Who really advised President Gotabaya Rajapaksa not to reverse the decisions in the wake of the Covid-19 crisis? Or was it his pure stubbornness, coming from a military background?

The entire Cabinet-of-Ministers should be held responsible for the outrageous decision to do away with taxes at a time the country was experiencing severe economic difficulties. In fact, Sri Lanka effected tax cuts, regardless of specific warning issued by the IMF. No less than incumbent Central Bank Governor Dr. Nandalal Weerasinghe exposed the guilty lot when he appeared before a parliamentary watchdog committee in May 2022.

The arrival of a ship-load of allegedly toxic Chinese fertiliser, in the wake of a sudden decision to stop all chemical fertiliser imports in May 2021, Sri Lanka’s refusal to accept the consignment that led to a diplomatic tussle and the blacklisting of a State-owned bank, unsettled the country. President Gotabaya Rajapaksa made the ill-fated announcement as regards the ban on chemical fertiliser on April 22, 2021, at the President’s House. The President was flanked by Presidential Secretary Dr. P. B. Jayasundera, Senior Presidential Advisor Lalith Weeratunga and Finance Secretary S.R. Attygalle.

The sugar tax scam, too, contributed to the government’s downfall. Regardless of the relentless media attacks, and with the Opposition taking it up both in and outside Parliament, the government conveniently turned a blind eye as it would have been their way of paying back their election financiers.

Until the announcement of the Presidential Polls results, the impact of Aragalaya wouldn’t be known. Those who had really suffered as a result of the economic-political-social crisis caused in 2022 are likely to be the easiest to manipulate though public and private sector workers and their families are expected to reflect their discontent with the system.

It would be prudent to examine how the ex-military and police, as well as the serving officers and men, respond to political campaigns. The JJB and SJB are engaged in a fierce contest for those votes, with both making headway. The SJB appears to have consolidated its campaign meant to attract ex-military and serving officers and men in the face of JJB making early gains. Both parties seemed to be quite cleverly exploiting the ‘military vote’ bank as other contenders (Wickremesinghe and SLPP) lacked a cohesive strategy to entice them.

Yahapalana Army Chief General Mahesh Senanayake, one of the unsuccessful candidates at the 2019 presidential election, has joined the SJB campaign. Senanayake polled just over 49,000 votes and was placed fourth on the list of candidates. Gotabaya Rajapaksa polled 6,924,255 votes (52.25%) whereas Sajith Premadasa and Anura Kumara Dissanayake obtained 5,564,239 (41.99%) and 418,553 (3.16%), respectively. Senanayake polled a paltry 49,655 (0.37%).

Past Presidential Polls

Field Marshal Sarath Fonseka on Monday (05) declared his intention to join the presidential fray by paying the stipulated deposit. There had never been so many prominent candidates at any previous presidential polls and the contest was always between two major political groups. However, the entry of several prominent candidates may cause quite disturbing impact on the electorate and may impede the contestant polling the highest number of votes reaching 51% of the votes cast.

The war-winning Army Chief suffered a humiliating defeat at the hands of Mahinda Rajapaksa at the 2010 presidential election. Fonseka, in spite of being backed by the UNP-led coalition that included the JVP, TNA, SLMC, and out rightly supported by Western interests, led by the US, was trounced by Mahinda Rajapaksa. Fonseka lost by a staggering 1.8 mn votes and was abandoned by the UNP. The rest is history.

At the first presidential election held on Oct 20, 1982 there were six candidates. J. R. Jayewardene (UNP) 3,450,811 (52.91%), Hector Kobbekaduwa (SLFP) 2,548,438 (39.07%), Rohana Wijeweera (JVP) 273,428 (4.19%), Kumar Ponnambalam (ACTC) 173,934 (2.67%), Colvin R. de Silva (LSSP) 58,531 (0.90%) and Vasudeva Nanayakkara (NSSP) 17,005 (0.26%).

Of them, only Vasudeva Nanayakkara, now 85, represents the current Parliament (SLPP Ratnapura District) and the one-time LSSP/NSSP firebrand is unlikely to contest the next general election.

Close on the heels of the presidential election victory, JRJ, in a disgraceful bid to consolidate power in Parliament, staged a rigged national referendum on December 22, 1982, using state resources to the maximum. The referendum gave JRJ the opportunity to extend the life of Parliament by six years, thereby thwarted the possibility of losing his party UNP’s massive (5/6) supermajority in Parliament that it secured in 1977.

The second presidential election was held on December 19, 1988, amidst countrywide violence with the Indian Army deployed in the Northern and Eastern provinces in terms of the Indo-Lanka accord signed on July 29, 1987. The South was on fire with the JVP-led insurgency in full swing. There had been only three candidates with both the UNP and SLFP in the fray. Ranasinghe Premadasa (UNP) won the contest by polling 2,569,199 (50.43%), Sirimavo Bandaranaike (SLFP) obtained 2,289,86 (44.95%) and Ossie Abeygunasekera (Sri Lanka Mahajana Pakshaya) 235,719 (4.63%).

By the time Sri Lanka went for its third presidential election, on November 09, 1994, the SLFP had been transformed to People’s Alliance (PA) and was able to bring the 17-year-old UNP reign to an end. There had been six contestants again with Srima Dissanayake replacing her assassinated husband Gamini Dissanayake. The LTTE, in an obvious bid to manipulate and influence the electorate, assassinated Dissanayake at a public rally at Thotalanga on the night of October 23, 1994.

PA candidate Chandrika Bandaranaike Kumaratunga polled 4,709,205 (62.28%), Srima Dissanayake (UNP) 2,715,283 (35.91%), Hudson Samarasinghe (Independent) 58,886 (0.78%), Harischandra Wijayatunga (Sinhalaye Mahasammatha Bhoomiputra Pakshaya) 32,651 (0.43%), A. J. Ranasinghe (Independent) 22,752 (0.30%) and Nihal Galappaththi (Sri Lanka Progressive Front) 22,749 (0.30%).

The fourth presidential poll was again marred by unprecedented violence. The LTTE made an abortive bid to assassinate PA candidate Kumaratunga on December 19, 1999, just two days before the election, in Colombo, while another suicide attack claimed the life of former Army Chief of Staff Lakshman Algama campaigning for UNP candidate Ranil Wickremesinghe. Altogether there had been 13 candidates with interested parties fielding proxies.

Chandrika Bandaranaike Kumaratunga (PA) polled 4,312,157 (51.12%), Ranil Wickremasinghe (UNP) 3,602,743 ( 42.71%), Nandana Gunathilake (JVP) 344,173 (4.08%), Harischandra Wijayatunga (Sinhalaye Mahasammatha Bhoomiputra Pakshaya) 35,854 (0.43%), W.V.M. Ranjith (Independent) 27,052 ( 0.32%), Rajiva Wijesinha (Liberal Party) 25,085 ( (0.30%), Vasudeva Nanayakkara (Left & Democratic Alliance) 23,668 ( 0.28%), Tennyson Edirisuriya (Independent) 21,119 (0.25%), Abdul Rasool (Sri Lanka Muslim Party) 17,359 (0.21%), Kamal Karunadasa (People’s Liberation Solidarity Front) 11,333 (0.13%), Hudson Samarasinghe (Independent) 7,184 (0.09%), Ariyawansa Dissanayaka (Democratic United National Front) 4,039 (0.05%) and A. W. Premawardhana (Bahujana Nidahas Peramuna) 3,983 (0.05%).

The fifth presidential election held on November 17, 2005, was called amidst increased threat posed by the LTTE. Against the backdrop of the assassination of Foreign Minister Lakshman Kadirgamar, the war seemed imminent and unavoidable. Like the previous election, there had been 13 candidates. Initially, there had been serious doubts whether the election would be held at all. As incumbent President Kumaratunga had called the 1999 election one year ahead of schedule, she asserted and argued that the extra year should be appended to her second term. The Supreme Court rejected her move and the election went ahead.

Mahinda Rajapaksa (UPFA) won by polling 4,887,152 (50.29%), Ranil Wickremesinghe (UNP) 4,706,366 (48.43%), Siritunga Jayasuriya (United Socialist Party) 35,425 ( 0.36%), A. A. Suraweera (National Development Front) 31,238 (0.32%), Victor Hettigoda (United Lanka People’s Party) 14,458 (0.15%), Chamil Jayaneththi (New Left Front ) 9,296 (0.10%), Aruna de Soyza (Ruhuna People’s Party) 7,685 (0.08%), Wimal Geeganage (Sri Lanka National Front) 6,639 (0.07%), Anura de Silva (United Lalith Front) 6,357 (0.07%), Ajith Arachchige, (Democratic Unity Alliance) 5,082 (0.05%), Wije Dias Socialist Equality Party 3,500 (0.04%), Nelson Perera (Sri Lanka Progressive Front) 2,525 (0.03%) and Hewaheenipellage Dharmadwaja (United National Alternative Front) 1,316 (0.01%).

However, the sixth presidential election, conducted on January 26, 2010, saw proxies and some seeking to attract limelight (at the previous elections, too, there had been some joining the fray for their own sake). In the absence of any sort of restrictions /safeguards, 22 contested the first presidential poll after the eradication of the LTTE. Mahinda Rajapaksa polled a staggering 6,015,934 (57.88%) to beat General Sarath Fonseka who managed to secure 4,173,185 (40.15%).

At the 2015 presidential that had been convincingly won by Maithripala Sirisena (New Democratic Front) by polling 6,217,162 (51.28%) there were 19 candidates. Mahinda Rajapaksa, who enacted 18th Amendment to enable him to contest, managed to get 5,768,090 (47.58%).

The last presidential election saw a record number of contestants with, for the first time, the number on the ballot paper passing the 30 mark. The election, handsomely won by Gotabaya Rajapaksa, was contested by 35.

Of them, only Gotabaya Rajapaksa and Sajith Premadasa polled more than 500,000 votes. Anura Kumara Dissanayake polled over 400,000 and the rest polled less than 50,000, ranging from 900 to 49,000.

The forthcoming presidential poll that’ll decide Sri Lanka’s fate depends on its outcome and the workable agenda for a bankrupt country.

External interventions will play a crucial role in the election with geopolitics being a key factor in post-Aragalaya Sri Lanka. Two major parties involved in the Aragalaya – the JVP-led JJB and Jana Aragala Sandhanaya that fields lawyer Nuwan Bopage should attract public attention as the importance of their strategic role cannot be underestimated.

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Is recent history repeating in the South Asia region?

The longest serving Premier of Bangladesh Sheihk Hasina, of the Awami League party, was forced to resign on Monday in the face of a mounting wave of protests and counter action by her government that killed nearly 300 people since mid-July. She took refuge in India after fleeing aboard a Bangladesh Air Force C 130.

The relatively new country Bangladesh was created in 1971 following a successful rebellion against high handed Pakistani rule over Bengalis in the then East Pakistan, launched by her late father Sheikh Mujibur Rahman after Islamabad refused to recognize his popular election victory with predominantly Bengali votes of East Pakistan and jailed by the then rulers.

Most unfortunately Sheikh Mujibur Rahman himself was killed by disgruntled elements in his own Army, along with his entire family, barring Hasina and her sister Rezhana during a subsequent coup in August 1975.

Many compared the 76-year-old leader’s ouster with the forcing out of President Gotabaya Rajapaksa following a similar protest campaign alleged to have been backed by the US. Rajapaksa resigned though India advised him against doing so.

Over two years after Rajapaksa’s ouster the circumstances leading to his ouster remained uninvestigated and unexamined. The role of the Muslim community as a whole in Rajapaksa’s ouster in the wake of the Easter Sunday repercussions and cremation of Covid-19 victims, as well as the Catholic Church interventions, remained to be properly examined. Perhaps, against the backdrop of Hasina’s ouster, Sri Lanka can take a fresh look at the Aragalaya as well as post-Aragalaya issues.