Saturday 14th September, 2024

The Cabinet of Ministers is playing Santa these days in a bid to shore up President Ranil Wickremesinghe’s chances in the ongoing presidential race. Its latest gimmick is the announcement of substantial PAYE tax reductions, which are to take effect from April 2025. The Cabinet has said the proposal to grant tax relief has the blessings of the IMF, which, we thought, was against tax cuts.

The Cabinet, headed by President Wickremesinghe, is in overdrive to announce relief measures and make as many election promises as possible ahead of the forthcoming presidential election. Its ulterior motive is not difficult to discern, and it will be interesting to see the Election Commission’s reaction. The Cabinet has also undertaken to increase the public sector salaries and pensions. Restrictions on vehicle imports, too, will be lifted from February 2025, the Cabinet has said.

Curiouser and curiouser! A couple of months ago, President Wickremesinghe, the Finance Ministry and the Cabinet insisted that a demand for public sector pay hikes could not be granted for want of funds and in view of the IMF’s stringent bailout conditions.

They stood their ground amidst workers’ protests, which were crushed. State Minister of Finance Shehan Semasinghe went on record as saying that pay hikes that trade unions demanded for state employees would require an extra Rs. 275 billion, and the value added tax would have to be jacked up from 18% to 22% to meet that demand. The Finance Ministry panjandrums and Minister Bandula Gunawardena peddled the same argument, which received wide publicity. Now, the Cabinet says it is possible to grant public workers pay hikes, and, at the same time, reduce taxes! It finds itself in a contradiction—a huge one at that.

President Wickremesinghe would have the public believe that the economic crisis is far from over, and they will have to brace for more austerity measures if the country is to come out of it; that uphill task will be attainable only under his stewardship.

Hence his warning that it will be a huge mistake for the public to elect anyone else as President next week. But he and the Cabinet are now making pledges to increase salaries, provide subsidies and relief, do away with import restrictions and reduce taxes as if the economic crisis were a thing of the past. They must be asked whether a country facing an economic crisis can afford to carry out such election pledges.

Interestingly, the Cabinet has said that for the proposed tax relief to be granted, the Inland Revenue Act will have to be amended. Reading between the lines, one will discern the subliminal message the Cabinet has conveyed; the public will have to elect Wickremsinghe as President and vote for his party or independent group to ensure that the promised tax relief becomes a reality.

Whatever the Cabinet and the President promise, out of their sheer desperation to garner votes in a tight presidential race, state revenue will have to be raised substantially to slash personal income taxes, increase the public sector salaries and enhance social welfare.

How does the Cabinet propose to meet the revenue targets set by the IMF while decreasing taxes? IMF Senior Mission Chief Peter Breuer said in June that Sri Lanka had to increase state revenue to the region of 15% of GDP in 2025. Are the proposed PAYE tax reductions a ploy to prepare the ground for the implementation of the much-dreaded imputed rental tax and increase other taxes after the presidential and parliamentary elections? The IMF and Sri Lankan politicians know more than one way to shoe a horse.