Friday 4th April, 2025

US President Donald Trump has jacked up tariffs on imports in the name of making America wealthy again. Yesterday, he signed an executive order, with his usual melodrama, increasing tariffs on goods imported from many countries including Sri Lanka, which will now have to pay as much as 44% by way of tariff on its exports to the US. Claiming that the unprecedented tariff hike is a reciprocal measure, Trump has said the new 44% tariff is in response to Sri Lanka’s 88% trade barriers on American goods. It is a case of a giant competing with a dwarf!

Powerful nations are resilient enough to absorb the US tariff shocks, but the weaker economies like Sri Lanka are bound to reel and even go into a tailspin, causing further destabilisation of the developing world. The US tariff hike will deal a body blow to Sri Lanka’s export sector, especially its garment industry, which is showing signs of recovery. Sri Lankan goods, especially garments, will now be less competitive in the US market. Other Asian garment exporters, such as India, Bangladesh and Vietnam, also have higher US tariffs to contend with but not to the same extent as Sri Lanka. There’s the rub.

A drastic decline in export earnings due to the new US tariffs will invariably lead to a decrease in Sri Lanka’s foreign currency reserves, causing a further depreciation of the rupee, an increase in inflation, job losses, and even socio-political upheavals unless the US takes the fragile condition of the Sri Lankan economy and softens its stand.

President Anura Kumara Dissanayake has appointed an expert committee to study the economic fallout of the US tariff hike and recommend remedial measures. This is a step in the right direction, and it is hoped that the government, together with all other stakeholders, will be able to formulate a mitigatory strategy to cushion the impact of the new US tariffs on the local industries and the ailing economy. Most of all, the government will have to manage the country’s foreign currency reserves frugally.

What the US can gain from the unprecedented hike in tariffs on Sri Lankan exports is negligible, and it will not give any significant boost to the US economy or industries. Is Washington trying to leverage Sri Lanka’s overdependence on the US as an export destination to further its geopolitical interests in a bigger way? Is the Trump administration goading Sri Lanka into a situation where the latter will be left with no alternative but to agree to anything including controversial agreements, owing to its sheer desperation to have the US tariffs on its exports reduced?

If what Trump said, while announcing the new tariffs is anything to go by, he wants to make America wealthy again by creating conditions for the domestic industries to be ‘reborn’. But he has apparently ignored factors like stringent environmental laws, higher cost of domestic labour, increases in raw material costs due to new tariffs, technological competition, etc., which will stand in the way of the US in achieving his dream.

Whether Trump will be able to realise his MAGA (Make America Great Again) goal by resorting to ruthless actions that weaken the economies in the developing world may be in doubt, but one possible outcome of his tariff war, as it were, is not difficult to predict. Extremely high tariffs the US has imposed on imports are at variance with the liberal economic principles and policies it has long championed. Such excessively protectionist measures could undermine America’s global dominance, driving smaller nations to gravitate towards its rivals in search of favourable trade terms. Russia lost no time in offering to help Sri Lanka’s export sector. Other powerful nations are likely to follow suit where the developing countries troubled by the US tariffs are concerned.