Friday 8th November, 2024

Donald Trump has done the impossible. He has made a triumphant return to the White House against all odds. Even his ardent loyalists may not have expected him to secure a non-consecutive term like Grover Cleveland, when he refused to concede defeat following Joe Biden’s victory in the 2020 presidential election, which, he claimed, had been stolen, and went on to instigate his backers to rebel. His opponents said he had cooked his goose.

Trump, impeached twice, incurred much public opprobrium after his defeat. It was widely thought that his felony conviction in May would seal his fate as a presidential candidate. But nothing could stop him—not even an assassin’s bullet. He has been elected to the White House as a convicted felon! His sentencing is scheduled for 26 Nov., but it is very likely to be delayed either indefinitely or for four years. Other criminal cases against him will be closed. Thus, if he had not been able to re-enter the White House, he would have had to go to prison!

World leaders are falling over themselves to congratulate President elect Trump. They are saying nice things about him fawningly. The irony of President Anura Kumara Dissanayake congratulating Trump may not have been lost on keen political observers. Trump supporters marched on the US Capitol in 2021, and the following year a mob led by Dissanayake’s party, the JVP, tried to capture the parliament of Sri Lanka, albeit in vain. Both instances of rioting amounted to attacks on democracy and the rule of law, but Dissanayake and Trump have been elevated to the highest positions in their countries!

Trump’s second term is very likely to upend many US policies. Speculation is rife that he will order the deportation of immigrants, introduce import restrictions through tariff hikes, and deep-six key climate-related regulations. He is also expected to give the US education and health systems a radical shake-up. Protectionist trade policies of Trump, and his actions to create more jobs for Americans in the US itself are bound to adversely impact other economies. This is something the Sri Lankan leaders should take cognisance of; they would do better to have contingency plans ready in case of what is feared coming to pass.

Trump’s promise in his victory speech that there will be no wars for four years under his presidency must have struck a responsive chord with all peace lovers across the globe. If there is anything genuine about Trump, it is his commitment to creating a world without wars. However, the Washington-based hawks that thrive on the arms industry powered by the blood and tears of hapless victims of armed conflicts will not take kindly to his anti-war crusade. Whether the 47th POTUS will be able to prevail over the merchants of death remains to be seen.

Resolving the escalating Middle East conflict will be one of the biggest challenges for Trump. He says he will adopt a different approach to conflict resolution. President Joe Biden has the blood of Palestinians on his hands; the Democrats are thought to have a soft corner for Palestinians, but the Biden administration has been extremely generous in providing military assistance to Israel, which is destroying Palestinian lives. The Democrats find themselves in a contradiction. So do the Republicans, who are openly supportive of Israel. Trump is a true friend of the Jewish state, but he will not support wars. So, the Trump win could prove disadvantageous to the Netanyahu government, whose belligerence knows no bounds.

If it is peace in the Middle East that Trump seeks, he will be left with no alternative but to have a come-to-Jesus talk with Netanyahu, who is determined to reduce the entire Gaza strip to rubble and has apparently bitten off more than he can chew by opening several fronts. He will also have to pressure outfits such as Hamas and Hezbollah to agree to a peaceful solution.

Trump makes no bones about his antipathy towards NATO, which he has called a huge drain on US resources. He is likely to push for a ceasefire in Ukraine, but where to draw a line of control is going to be a big problem because Russians have captured swathes of land in Ukraine. The Ukraine invasion has not gone the way Vladimir Putin expected, and there is no way Volodymyr Zelensky can defeat Russia in spite of being backed by NATO. So, chances are that Trump will succeed in having the two sides agree to a ceasefire, which is the need of the hour.

Whether the world, or at least the US, will be a better place during Trump’s second term, one may not know, but his presidency surely won’t be worse than Biden’s. One can only keep one’s fingers crossed.