Tragedy in Iran

Tuesday 21st May, 2024

There seems to be no end in sight to Iran’s problems, which are legion. The tragic demise of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash in a mountainous area of north-western Iran has shocked the world and led to a range of emotions. Foreign Minister of Iran, Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, was also among the other members of Raisi’s entourage killed in the crash.

Monday’s helicopter crash has been attributed to various factors. The situation is still fluid, and inclement weather has been blamed for the incident, which is said to have occurred while the presidential chopper was attempting a hard landing. It is also being claimed in some quarters that the US-built helicopter, which Raisi and others were travelling in, was ageing, and Iran is facing a problem with the procurement of spares for its aircraft due to sanctions. These are mere speculations, and investigations are still on into the incident, and only a thorough probe will help get at the truth.

Conspiracy theories have already taken wings, for the other helicopters in the convoy returned safely in spite of hostile weather, and the incident has occurred amidst increasing tensions between Iran and Israel. Some Iranian leaders themselves and a section of the state media are nurturing them. They have hinted at the possibility of foul play, which Tehran itself has not ruled out officially.

Raisi’s tragic death could not have come at a worse time for Iran. Hostilities between Israel and Iran have peaked following their missile duel a few weeks ago, and they have turned the region into a tinderbox. Public resentment is reportedly running high in Iran, which is reeling from western sanctions. Some political analysts are of the view that Raisi’s death will strengthen the hands of Iran’s anti-establishment activists, who are believed to be waiting for an opportunity to take to the streets. Iran was dependent on Raisi, considered a strong, hardline leader, to square up to those hostile forces. Whether any other leader will be equal to the task of defending Iran’s interests the way Raisi did remains to be seen.

Raisi’s successor has already been picked; Vice President Mohammad Mokhber was expected to assume duties as the President at the time of going to press, and Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is believed to be in full control of the situation, but the void that Raisi’s death has created is bound to take its toll on Iran’s political stability, which the Islamic Republic needs more than anything else while it is at war with Israel for all practical purposes and battling economic sanctions.

The reaction of Iran’s sworn enemies to Monday’s tragedy has been muted. Israel, which has a history of physically eliminating prominent Iranians, including nuclear scientists, has become a suspect in respect of Monday’s crash although no conclusive evidence has surfaced to that effect. Some defence analysts interviewed by the Iranian media have claimed that Israel’s Mossad has a presence in Azerbaijan and adjoining areas, the implication being that the Jewish state had a hand in Monday’s tragedy. These claims provide insights into Tehran’s thinking. Perceptions and suspicions do matter as much as facts and evidence in conflicts. There’s the rub.

What if Iran finally refuses to accept the narrative that Monday’s crash was an accident? That is a possibility one dreads to think of. Raisi’s death is expected to reverberate throughout the region, and fear is being expressed in defence circles that it might even act as a spark plunging the entire region into a conflagration. This is the last thing the world needs at this particular juncture, with multiple crises, including the Gaza conflict and the war in Ukraine to contend with. One can only hope that what is feared will not come to pass.