Trade, tariffs and visas to dominate Trump-Modi talks

When Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi visits Washington and meets President Donald Trump later this week, there will be some warm hugs and shared laughs. But that will not be all.

Trump and Modi have developed a strong personal rapport over the years, marked by high-profile meetings and joint appearances.

Since their first meeting in Washington in 2017, their bond has grown through other events, including joint appearances at massive rallies in Houston and Ahmedabad. Their chemistry stems from shared worldviews and politics and a mutual strategic focus on countering China, a concern that has also strengthened the broader US-India partnership.

Not surprisingly, Trump has often criticised India, but he has never criticised Modi.

And so, during Modi’s visit, the two leaders will probably spend time mapping out next steps in the US-India strategic partnership, which is already in a good place.

Modi will reportedly meet several members of Trump’s cabinet, as well as US business leaders and members of the Indian-American community.

He may also meet SpaceX and Tesla chief Elon Musk. Modi, keen to scale up India’s burgeoning electric vehicles sector, would be happy if Musk opened a Tesla factory in India.

And yet the Trump-Modi conviviality and heady talk of strategic partnership may mask a sobering reality: during Modi’s visit, the relationship’s transactional side will come into sharp relief with each leader, especially Trump, armed with an array of demands.

Delhi knows Trump well. Many of Modi’s current cabinet ministers also served during his previous term, which overlapped with part of the first Trump administration. That familiarity has been on display since Trump’s inauguration last month: Delhi has publicly signaled its willingness to lower tariffs, take back undocumented Indian immigrants and buy American oil.

It has already lowered some tariffs and taken back 104 undocumented Indians, with the first plane arriving in India last week. These pre-emptive steps are meant to prevent Trump from making specific demands of India and to reduce the likelihood of tensions with the new Trump administration.

Still, Trump may ask Modi to make additional tariff reductions, to further chip away at a US goods and services trade deficit with India that has approached $46bn (£37.10bn) in recent years. But an obstacle could become an opportunity: Modi may call on Trump to enter into bilateral talks on an economic partnership accord meant to reduce tariffs on both sides.

In recent years, Delhi has shown a growing willingness to pursue trade deals. The Trump administration may prove to be a more willing interlocutor than the Biden administration, which imposed heavy environmental and labour-related conditions on new trade agreements.

[BBC]