The Thucydides Trap and Bilateral Relations

by Dr Sarala Fernando

In an earlier article I had written about the return of “might is right” to international geopolitics affecting for example Ukraine and Palestine. In both cases ambitions of ” imperial expansion” by powerful nations is being met with resistance from the weaker neighbour in favour of “values of freedom and territorial integrity”. Political science students and military strategists are much influenced today by the notion of the “Thucydides Trap” coined by Graham Allison in his book “Destined for War” referring to Thucydides, an Athenian historian of the 5th century B.C.E who ascribed the great wars of the period to “the rise of Athens and the fear that instilled in Sparta that made war inevitable”. Allison reminds that history has provided several examples both where the clash of powerful nations ended in war and where war was avoided by effective diplomacy and wisdom depending on the character of the nations concerned and the values of their rulers.

Can this notion be a useful basis for the examination of bilateral relations between nations of unequal size and power? Can it explain why has there has been continuous fall-out from the President’s official visit to India in July especially as details become clear of the thrust of the India Sri Lanka Economic Partnership Vision dated July 21, 2023? The emphasis on “connectivity in all its dimensions as the key enabler” has been contested in the island to such an extent that it now seems to cast a shadow over Indian investment proposals however benign.

To take a recent example, the President was seen on live tv demanding that the historic Nuwara Eliya post office be given to India’s Taj group for redevelopment over the objections of the postal workers. What is interesting is that the storm of protest from the postal workers has been joined by other unions, including academics, leading hoteliers and some caution voiced even by the Mahanayakes. In the current thoughtless rush for foreign investment, questions are raised as to whether Nuwara Eliya needs another large hotel? It is after all a place of seasonal demand and any new luxury hotel which will capture the Indian tourist market will affect the local hotels there negatively.

In this time of crisis, should not government action be in support the local hoteliers instead of taking away their business across the Palk Straits? It is just another example of poor public diplomacy from the top given that its hardly likely that the Indian owners of Taj would want to get embroiled in such a public confrontation and would find it more embarrassing than helpful to their cause.

However, what is even more interesting is that the protests have stimulated a suggestion that the President’s House in Nuwara Eliya be given instead of the historic post office for redevelopment by the Taj group. It seems “the worm has turned” and the public is no longer willing to be at the end of this process of “selling the family silver”.

Indeed why should the rulers also not share the pain? Offering the Presidential House to the Indian investors would be a good political gesture and an excellent business proposition, enabling considerable savings from the President’s budget. The commercial development, with only a Presidential suite reserved for official use, will open up this building for better public viewing and use.

Many see the public berating of public service officials as an unhealthy precedent especially at a time when the cost of living is sky rocketing with the imposition of new taxes. It can only lead to widening of the gap between the rulers and the ruled and grow public skepticism about the direction of government strategy and thinking.

The postal service is a good example of this increasing divide, where the government only sees it as “loss making” in opposition to the general public who see the value of the Sri Lanka postal service which has maintained an excellent service even in times of crisis, able to deliver registered letter to the remotest corner of the island in a few days.

Recently, I visited the CTO to collect an undelivered registered letter and was amazed at the hive of activity in this old building with dust everywhere, bags of mail flying up and down despite the poor working conditions without proper lighting or ventilation. Since the ancient public lift was not working, kind courteous staff took me to the section concerned where my letter was found in a matter of minutes because of the systems in place.

Should not our rulers encourage and support local public services which are working well instead of trying to disrupt and destroy the morale of the workers? Should they not be turning to local entrepreneurs to stimulate business activities in these historic buildings and aiding their conservation instead of selling them off to foreign parties?

The confusion over basic economics is everywhere. Thus, even within the Cabinet, one Minister champions importing eggs from India over the objections of local producers and disrupting market prices. Has there been an accounting of the precious foreign exchange used for these purchases and whether the government cooperative Sathosa ran a profit from the lowering of egg prices?

Shouldn’t we be encouraging and finding ways to support local producers affected by the economic crisis? Posted to Switzerland some years ago I could not but notice how the Swiss brand is encouraged and local producers supported such that their consumers were willing to pay a higher price for their own products even though, across the open border, French stores sold everything from wine to cheese of similar or better quality much cheaper. The Swiss example shows the importance of building pride in the country and encouraging high standards of local manufacture. In my mind, import substitution, which is scorned by economists, is not a bad thing in practice especially at a time of crisis. National campaigns like “Make in India” are a good example of how to boost local production and stimulate national pride, even while the emphasis is on exports.

All these recent developments are raising questions on the present government strategy to “let the robber barons come”. Is any footloose foreign investment acceptable or should we be cautious about what is of real value to this country? Should we encourage for example the building of Asia’s tallest Buddha statute even as a state gift which will require mountains to be flattened for stones and digging more rivers for sand, causing more environmental damage at a time of climate crisis? Will this new monument cast into shadow the beauty of our ancient cultural assets and revive the conflict between Mahayana and Theravada streams?

Fortunately for India-Sri Lanka relations, the visit of the Indian Minister of Finance, that brilliant woman, economist and politician, Nirmala Sittaraman took place recently and the sincerity of her approach would have strengthened India’s public diplomacy. The political element, a huge gathering of Indian Tamil plantation community in Colombo, was balanced by the Indian Minister’s association with down to earth projects such as providing solar power assistance to places of religious worship hard hit by escalating electricity bills, interest in supporting educational projects and digitalization, walk about meeting young students at a tech fair in Jaffna etc.

As for the political elements, I wonder if anyone showed the Indian Minister the recent press release issued by the Planters Association noting all the progress made in the status of the Indian plantation labour community over the years, including health education and housing benefits. It is worth noting that their workforce has reduced in the RPC’s now to approximately 100,000 from an estimated 300,000 once strong community, with labour migrating out of the plantation sector.

In this time of uncertainty, bilateral defence cooperation between India and Sri Lanka is continuing to grow with regular high level exchanges, joint drills and enhanced training opportunities extended to the tri-services. Yet many questions remain of public concern. When the Indian Air Force aerobatics team came to display their prowess in Sri Lanka at the invitation of our Air Force, the public were asking about the costs incurred in this celebration of jets screeching overhead for days when the public were queuing for petrol, diesel and cooking gas.

Environmentalists are still asking questions whether the Malabar exercises in the Indian Ocean caused a huge pod of pilot whales to beach in Sri Lanka for the first time, possibly disoriented by submarine sonars. In the US, environmentalists have gone to court and got such drills and exercises canceled in sensitive coastal areas of marine habitation.

It is therefore fair to conclude that India’s interest to strengthen its military power in the region is coming into public conflict . In Sri Lanka, a decade after the end of the armed conflict, Sri Lankans are still waiting for a peace dividend and a reduction of defence expenditure in the budget in favour of increased social spending on national health and education systems. In the Maldives, it appears that previously accepted military aircraft as gifts from India have now run into controversy when it was found that as many as 75 Indian personnel were in the country to maintain and service the equipment.

Questions are now being asked in that country whether gifts of valuable military equipment could be a “deceptive method of positioning Indian soldiers within Maldivian borders”. It is only a matter of time before similar questions will be raised on the terms and conditions of the gift of a Dornier aircraft to Sri Lanka especially on the provision for our cash- strapped island to purchase another? How many Indian airmen are here to ostensibly train and service the Indian made aircraft and will this become a permanent stationing in Sri Lanka?

(Sarala Fernando, retired from the Foreign Ministry as Additional Secretary, her last Ambassadorial appointment was as Permanent Representative to the UN and International Organizations in Geneva . Her Ph.D was on India-Sri Lanka relations and she writes now on foreign policy, public diplomacy and protection of heritage).