Features

The SJB’s trust deficit and the JVP-NPP’s strategy

Published

2 years ago

2022/11/6

By Uditha Devapriya

The aragalaya that lasted from February to somewhere in August showed two things: the people’s anger at the regime and the people’s rage against the system. The two are clean different. While a considerable section of the protesters wanted Gotabaya Rajapaksa out, a not inconsiderable second layer used these calls to campaign against the government: hence the interchangeable use of “regime change” and “system change.”

Given this, people should be forgiven for thinking the protests were confused, disjointed and unfocused, because they were exactly that. Laudable as their goals were, they soon deteriorated into a confused morass of rage, anger, and frustration.

The distinction between regime and State is one of the most profound in political science. Sri Lanka’s liberals and left-liberals, not to mention anarchists, tend to confuse and conflate the two. A State exists above, and beyond, a regime. A regime exists well below it, and is in fact subservient to it. If your call to displace a regime gets mixed up in calls to displace the State, then a regime, however unpopular, will find it very easy to make a comeback, on the pretext that protesters are seeking to overthrow an entire political system and with it the last vestiges of law and order. This is precisely what happened on July 13 and 14, when the FSP, followed by the JVP-NPP, asked people to walk into parliament. Their intention may or may not have been to overthrow the legislature, but people thought so.

This in turn activated the more liberal and conservative elements in the aragalaya. Almost immediately after the likes of Kumar Gunaratnam and Sunil Handunneti mobilised crowds at parliament, these groups sprang up on social media, urging people not to go and be hoodwinked by socialist parties. What these groups forgot, in their outcries, was that it had been these socialist elements – or those parading themselves as such – which had led and mobilised the protests since May. Prime among these groups, of course, was the FSP allied IUSF. The IUSF’s long march to Galle Face Green was cheered by a hitherto politically inert middle-class, in particular the youth. It is these same sections that are today castigating the IUSF and the FSP over allegations of ragging at universities.

In other words, the honeymoon is over, even if temporarily. The government has seen it fit to act against protesters and it sees the spate of arrests it has been unleashing since last month as a means of securing, if not the country, then at least Colombo. The same middle-class that hailed them as heroes are no longer bothered. This is natural, and it speaks more about the IUSF’s strategic error of relying on them than about the class preferences of these milieus. Related to this, I would say, is the IUSF’s, JVP-NPP’s, and of course FSP’s tendency to mix up State and regime, which has led these groups to commit two major blunders: to cast themselves as the only political choices in the country, and to alienate Opposition parties which can be made use of in a wider anti-government movement.

I think the November 2 protest showed these tendencies well. While the SJB, the de facto and de jure Opposition in the country, entered into an alliance of sorts with the FSP – and hence FSP allied groups – SJB MPs who entered the protests were not viewed favourably by many of the protesters themselves. Nuzly Hameem, who I believe is one of the more sincere protesters in that crowd, was blunt about Sajith Premadasa: “He simply ran away!” When an SJB official rose up to Premadasa’s defence – as he should – by arguing that Premadasa was afraid of the police attacking demonstrators, Hameem quickly countered: “Irony is such that Opposition leader run away leaving the protesters behind scared that oppression would take place where the main slogan of the protest is ‘Stop Oppression’.”

The protests caught much attention, here and abroad. The international media was much more sympathetic to their demands. The local media, by contrast, either ignored them or demonised them. One leading newspaper highlighted Premadasa’s desertion, in effect questioning his credibility. The protesters themselves, on social media, voiced their anger at Premadasa, more or less agreeing with the same media that marginalised their campaign. I think this shows the SJB’s trust deficit, a deficit compounded if not widened by Premadasa’s actions during the May 9 debacle, and his unwillingness – critiqued even by analysts like Dr Dayan Jayatilleka – to take on the premiership when it was offered to him.

At the same time, these developments have disenchanted sections of the Left opposition. What the FSP thought of Premadasa’s actions last Wednesday we may never know. But we know what the JVP-NPP thought. They refused to join the protests. Justifying his party’s line, MP Wasantha Samarasinghe contended that those taking part in them were more or less siding with the government. One of the demonstrators’ many calls was the abolition of the Prevention of Terrorism Act (PTA). MP Samarasinghe point-blank observed that such calls diverted attention from other issues, and that those taking up cudgels against the PTA were following the government’s agenda. By making this case for his party’s decision not to take part, Samarasinghe thus effectively distanced it from the FSP and the SJB.

I think I understand the JVP-NPP’s argument, whataboutist as it may be. At a time of a deepening economic and social crisis, the government is using the PTA to crack down on dissent. MP Samarasinghe and the JVP-NPP may be thinking that if the campaign against the government focuses solely, or mainly, on the PTA, it will embolden the government, or the State, to portray protesters as terrorists and fellow travellers. Over the last few weeks the government has instituted legal action against several aragalistas and this has enabled it to depict the latter as extremists. Samarasinghe’s argument is that by focusing on the PTA, instead of the gross incompetence that continues to wreak havoc on the economy, these protests will make it easier for the government to suppress dissent.

This is the more complex explanation. The simpler explanation, of course, is that the JVP-NPP does not want to take part in any campaign organised by not one, but two, of its bete noires. It does not like the FSP and it has so far resisted any attempt at forging an alliance with that outfit. It does not like Sajith Premadasa, if at all for his sin of being his father’s son. Lately it has badmouthed his party, calling it no better than the SLPP – invoking, of course, the late Mangala Samaraweera’s “two sides, same coin” argument. The JVP-NPP sees itself as the superior of these two formations and for that reason it does not wish to enter into any alliance with them. Though Premadasa himself has tried to invite them, and has made many overtures to this end during the last two years, he has failed.

In politics, it is perfectly possible to be correct and wrong at the same time. The JVP-NPP is correct in its characterisation of the SJB. Not because the SJB hasn’t tried, but because it hasn’t tried hard enough. Sajith Premadasa’s speech against the recent Budget showed that the SJB wants to be seen as following a different economic paradigm. Yet the blowback against the party by centre-right, right-wing, and neoliberal outfits and think-tanks based in Colombo has pushed the party’s stalwarts, like Harsha de Silva and Eran Wickramaratne, to make statements at odds with Premadasa’s speech: one of them has come out in support of Ranil Wickremesinghe’s policies. These elements are deeply conservative and neoliberal in their outlook. The JVP-NPP cannot be faulted for calling them out on this.

The JVP-NPP is wrong, in my view, in where it wants to go with this diagnosis. Any sensible political formation pitted against an overbearing regime must value what Mao characterised as the broadest possible alliance. In no revolution have revolutionary elements all come together with a consensus on every issue and problem. Latin America is seeing a resurgence of the Pink Tide precisely because the left and centre-left have chosen not to walk it alone. This has won these parties some censure from the dogmatist Left: the editors of the World Socialist Web Site, for instance, have poured scorn on the Workers’ Party in Brazil and its mobilisation of leftist forces by calling the latter elements “pseudo-left.” The WSWS calls the JVP-NPP “pseudo-left” too: a charge the party may not agree with.

But I digress here. My point is that the JVP-NPP cannot isolate itself from the mainstream Opposition. At the same time, it cannot allow itself to be co-opted by the mainstream. The Latin American Pink Tide analogy loses ground when you consider that elements within the SJB, or what I’d like to call the Ranilist faction, are much more to the right than the centre-left and liberal elements which sided with Lula da Silva’s party in Brazil. The WSWS may be wrong in terming these formations, and their supporters, “pseudo-left”, but this is a label that can be applied to the SJB’s recent attempts at shifting to the left. The recent protests, in that sense, showed both the strengths and the weaknesses of the Left elements in the aragalaya. Unless they come up with an alliance with other parties, and unless those other parties free themselves from their neoliberal past, the only time we’ll see a vibrant protest movement here is when the country runs out of fuel, gas, and electricity.

The writer is an international relations analyst, researcher, and columnist who can be reached at udakdev1@gmail.com

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Features

High govt. revenue and low foreign exchange reserves High foreign exchange reserves and low govt. revenue!

Published

18 hours ago

2025/03/21

Thilina Walpola

First shipment of vehicles imported to Sir Lank after the lifting the ban on automobile imports

Government has permitted, after several years, the import of motor cars. Imports, including cars, were cut off because the government then wisely prioritised importing other commodities vital to the everyday life of the general public. It is fair to expect that some pent-up demand for motor vehicles has developed. But at what prices? Government seems to have expected that consumers would pay much higher prices than had prevailed earlier.

The rupee price of foreign exchange had risen by about half from Rs.200 per US$ to Rs.300. In those years, the cost of production of cars also had risen. The government dearly wanted more revenue to meet increasing government expenditure. Usually, motor cars are bought by those with higher incomes or larger amounts of wealth. Taxes on the purchase of cars probably promote equity in the distribution of incomes. The collection of tax on motor cars is convenient. What better commodity to tax?

The announced price of a Toyota Camry is about Rs.34 million. Among us, a Camry is usually bought by those with a substantially higher income than the average middle-income earner. It is not a luxury car like a Mercedes Benz 500/ BMW 700i. Yes, there are some Ferrari drivers. When converted into US dollars, the market price of a Camry 2025 in Sri Lankan amounts to about $110,000. The market price of a Camry in US is about $34,000, where it is usually bought by income earners in the middle-middle class: typically assistant professors in state universities or young executives. Who in Lanka will buy a Camry at Rs.34 million or $110,000 a piece?

How did Treasury experts expect high revenue from the import of motor cars? The price of a Toyota Camry in US markets is about $34,000. GDP per person, a rough measure of income per person in US, was about $ 88,000 in 2024. That mythical ‘average person’ in US in 2024, could spend about 2.5 month’s income and buy a Toyota Camry. Income per person, in Lanka in 2024, was about $ 4,000. The market price of a Camry in Lanka is about $ 133,000. A person in Lanka must pay 33 years of annual income to buy a Toyota Camry in 2025.

Whoever imagined that with those incomes and prices, there would be any sales of Camry in Lanka? After making necessary adjustments (mutatis mutandis), Toyota Camry’s example applies to all import dues increases. Higher import duties will yield some additional revenue to government. How much they will yield cannot be answered without much more work. High import duties will deter people from buying imported goods. There will be no large drawdown of foreign exchange; nor will there be additional government revenue: result, high government foreign exchange reserves and low government revenue.

For people to buy cars at such higher prices in 2025, their incomes must rise substantially (unlikely) or they must shift their preferences for motor cars and drop their demand for other goods and services. There is no reason to believe that any of those changes have taken place. In the 2025 budget, government has an ambitious programme of expenditure. For government to implement that programme, they need high government revenue. If the high rates of duties on imports do not yield higher government revenue as hypothesised earlier, government must borrow in the domestic market. The economy is not worthy of raising funds in international capital markets yet.

If government sells large amounts of bonds, the price of all bonds will fall, i.e. interest rates will rise, with two consequences. First, expenditure on interest payments by government will rise for which they would need more revenue. Second, high interest rates may send money to banks rather than to industry. Finding out how these complexities will work out needs careful, methodically satisfactory work. It is probable that if government borrows heavily to pay for budgetary allocations, the fundamental problem arising out of heavy public debt will not be solved.

The congratulatory comments made by the Manager of IMF applied to the recent limited exercise of handling the severity of balance of payments and public debt problems. The fundamental problem of paying back debt can be solved only when the economy grows fast enough (perhaps 7.5 % annually) for several years. Of that growth, perhaps, half (say 4 % points) need to be paid back for many years to reduce the burden of external debt.

Domestic use of additional resources can increase annually by no more than 3.5 percent, even if the economy grows at 7.5 percent per year. Leaders in society, including scholars in the JJB government, university teachers and others must highlight the problems and seek solutions therefor, rather than repeat over and over again accounts of the problem itself.

Growth must not only be fast and sustained but also exports heavy. The reasoning is as follows. This economy is highly import-dependent. One percent growth in the economy required 0.31% percent increase in imports in 2012 and 0. 21 percent increase in 2024. The scarcity of imports cut down the rate of growth of the economy in 2024. Total GDP will not catch up with what it was in (say) 2017, until the ratio of imports to GDP rises above 30 percent.

The availability of imports is a binding constraint on the rate of growth of the economy. An economy that is free to grow will require much more imports (not only cement and structural steel but also intermediate imports of many kinds). I guess that the required ratio will exceed 35 percent. Import capacity is determined by the value of exports reduced by debt repayments to the rest of the world. The most important structural change in the economy is producing exports to provide adequate import capacity. (The constant chatter by IMF and the Treasury officials about another kind of structural change confuses the issue.) An annual 7.5 percent growth in the economy requires import capacity to grow by about 2.6 percent annually.

This economy needs, besides, resources to pay back accumulated foreign debt. If servicing that accumulation requires, takes 4% points of GDP, import capacity needs to grow by (about) 6.6 percent per year, for many years. Import capacity is created when the economy exports to earn foreign exchange and when persons working overseas remit substantial parts of their earnings to persons in Lanka. Both tourism and remittances from overseas have begun to grow robustly. They must continue to flow in persistently.

There are darkening clouds raised by fires in prominent markets for exports from all countries including those poor. This is a form of race to the bottom, which a prominent economist once called ‘a policy to beggar thy neighbour (even across the wide Pacific)’. Unlike the thirty years from 1995, the next 30 years now seem fraught with much danger to processes of growth aided by open international trade. East Asian economies grew phenomenally by selling in booming rich markets, using technology developed in rich countries.

Lanka weighed down with 2,500 years of high culture ignored that reality. The United States of America now is swinging with might and main a wrecking ball to destroy that structure which they had put up, one thought foolishly, with conviction. Among those storms, many container ships would rather be put to port than brave choppy seas. High rates of growth in export earnings seem a bleak prospect. There yet may be some room in the massive economies of China and India.

Consequently, it is fanciful to expect that living conditions will improve rapidly, beginning with the implementation of the 2025 budget. It will be a major achievement if the 2025 budget is fully implemented, as I have argued earlier. Remarkable efforts to cut down on extravagance, waste and the plunder of public funds will help, somewhat; but not enough. IMF or not, there is no way of paying back accumulated debt without running an export surplus sufficient to service debt obligations.

Exports are necessary to permit the economy to pay off accumulated debt and permit some increase in the standard of living. Austerity will be the order of the day for many years to come. It is most unlikely that the next five years will usher in prosperity.

By Usvatte-aratchi

Features

BLOSSOMS OF HOPE 2025

Published

18 hours ago

2025/03/21

Thilina Walpola

An Ikebana exhibition in aid of pediatric cancer patients

This Ikebana exhibition by the members of Ikebana International Sri Lanka Chapter #262, brings this ancient art form to life in support of a deeply meaningful cause: aiding the Pediatric Cancer ward of the Apeksha Cancer Hospital, Maharagama and offering hope to young warriors in their fight against illness.

Graceful, delicate, and filled with meaning—Ikebana, the Japanese art of floral arrangement, is more than just an expression of beauty; it is a reflection of life’s resilience and harmony. “Blossoms of Hope”, is a special Ikebana exhibition, on 29th March from 11a.m. to 7p.m. and 30th March from 10a.m. to 6p.m. at the Ivy Room, Cinnamon Grand Hotel and demonstrations will be from 4p.m. to 5p.m. on both days.

Each floral arrangement in this exhibition is a tribute to strength, renewal, and love. Carefully crafted by skilled Ikebana artists, who are members of the Chapter. These breathtaking displays symbolize the courage of children battling cancer, reminding us that even in adversity, beauty can bloom. The graceful lines, vibrant hues, and thoughtful compositions of Ikebana echo the journey of resilience, inspiring both reflection and compassion.

Visitors will not only experience the tranquility and elegance of Japanese floral art but will also have the opportunity to make a difference. Proceeds from “Blossoms of Hope” will go towards enhancing medical care, providing essential resources, and creating a more comforting environment for young patients and their families.

This exhibition is more than an artistic showcase—it is a gesture of kindness, a symbol of solidarity, and a reminder that hope, like a flower, can grow even in the most unexpected places. By attending and supporting “Blossoms of Hope”, you become a part of this journey, helping to bring light and joy into the lives of children who need it most.

Join in celebrating art, compassion, and the Power of Hope—one flower at a time.

Features

St. Anthony’s Church feast at Kachchativu island

Published

18 hours ago

2025/03/21

Thilina Walpola

Fort Hammenhiel

The famous St. Anthony’s Church feast this year was held on 14 and 15 March. St. Anthony, as per Catholic belief, gives protection and looks after fishermen and seafarers like me. Many Buddhist seafarers are believers in St. Anthony and they usually keep a statue of the saint in their cabins in the ship or craft.

St. Anthony died on 13th June 1231 at age of 35 years, at Padua in Holy Roman Empire and was canonized on 30 May 1232 by Pope Gregory IX.

I was unable to attend last year’s feast as I was away in Pakistan as Sri Lanka’s High Commissioner. I was more than happy to learn that Indians were also attending the feast this year and there would be 4,000 devotees.

I decided to travel to Kankesanturai (KKS) Jaffna by train and stay at my usual resting place, Fort Hammenhiel Resort, a Navy-run boutique hotel, which was once a prison, where JVP leaders, including Rohana Wijeweera were held during the 1971 insurrection. I was fortunate to turn this fort on a tiny islet in Kytes lagoon into a four-star boutique hotel and preserve Wijeweera’s handwriting in 2012, when I was the Commander Northern Naval Area.

I invite you to visit Fort Hammenhiel during your next trip to Jaffna and see Wijeweera’s handwriting.

The train left Colombo Fort Railway Station on time (0530 hrs/14th) and reached KKS at 1410 hrs. I was highly impressed with the cleanliness and quality of railway compartments and toilets. When I sent a photograph of my railway compartment to my son, he texted me asking “Dad, are you in an aircraft or in a train compartment? “

Well done Sri Lanka Railways! Please keep up your good work. No wonder foreign tourists love train rides, including the famous Ella Odyssey.

Travelling on board a train is comfortable, relaxed and stress free! As a frequent traveller on A 9 road to Jaffna, which is stressful due to oncoming heavy vehicles on. This was a new experience and I enjoyed the ride, sitting comfortably and reading a book received from my friend in New York- Senaka Senaviratne—’Hillbilly Elegy’ by US Vice President JD Vance. The book is an international best seller.

My buddy, Commodore (E) Dissanayake (Dissa), a brilliant engineer who built Reverse Osmosis Water Purification Plants for North, North Central and North Western provinces to help prevent chronic kidney disease is the Commodore Superintendent Engineering in the Northern Naval Area. He was waiting at the KKS railway station to receive me.

I enjoyed a cup of tea at Dissa’s chalet at our Northern Naval Command Headquarters in KKS and proceeded to Fort Hammenhiel at Karainagar, a 35-minute drive from KKS.

The acting Commanding Officer of Karainagar Naval Base (SLNS ELARA) Commander Jayawardena (Jaye) was there at Fort Hammenhiel Restaurant to have late lunch with me.

Jaye was a cadet at Naval and Maritime Academy, (NMA) Trincomalee, when I was Commandant in 2006, NMA was under artillery fire from LTTE twice, when those officers were cadets and until we destroyed enemy gun positions, and the army occupied Sampoor south of the Trincomalee harbour. I feel very proud of Jaye, who is a Commander now (equal to Army rank Lieutenant Colonel) and Commanding a very important Naval Base in Jaffna.

The present Navy Commander Vice Admiral Kanchana Banagoda had been in SLNS ELARA a few hours before me and he had left for the Delft Island on an inspection tour.

Commander Jaye was very happy because his Divisional Officer, when he was a cadet, was Vice Admiral Kanchana (then Lieutenant Commander). I had lunch and rested for a few hours before leaving Karainagar in an Inshore Patrol Craft heading to Kachchativu Island by1730 hrs.

The sea was very calm due to inter-monsoon weather and we reached Kachchativu Island by 1845 hrs. Devotees from both Sri Lanka and India had already reached the island. The Catholic Bishop of Sivagangai Diocese, Tamil Nadu India His Eminence Lourdu Anandam and Vicar General of Jaffna Diocese Very Rev Fr. PJ Jabaratnam were already there in Kachchativu together with more than 100 priests and nuns from Sri Lanka and India. It was a solid display of brotherhood of two neighbouring nations united together at this tiny island to worship God. They were joined by 8,000 devotees, with 4,000 from each country).

The church

All logistics—food, fresh water, medical facilities—were provided by the Sri Lanka Navy. Now, this festival has become a major annual amphibious operation for Navy’s Landing Craft fleet, led by SLNS Shakthi (Landing Ship tanks). The Navy establishes a temporary base in a remote island which does not have a drop of drinking water, and provides food and water to 8,000 persons. The event is planned and executed commendably well under Commander Northern Naval Area, Rear Admiral Thusara Karunathilake. The Sri Lankan government allocates Rs 30 million from the annual national budget for this festival, which is now considered a national religious festival.

The Indian devotees enjoy food provided by SLN. They have the highest regard for our Navy. The local devotees are from the Jaffna Diocese, mainly from the Delft Island and helped SLN. Delft Pradeshiya Sabha and AGA Delft Island. A very efficient lady supervised all administrative functions on the Island. Sri Lanka Police established a temporary police station with both male and female officers.

As usual, the Sinhalese devotees came from Negombo, Chilaw, Kurunegala and other areas, bringing food enough for them and their Catholic brothers and sisters from India! Children brought biscuits, milk toffee, kalu dodol and cakes to share with Indian and Jaffna devotees.

In his sermon on 22nd December 2016, when he declared open the new Church built by SLN from financial contributions from Navy officers and sailors, Jaffna Bishop Rt Rev Dr Justin Bernard Ganapragasam said that day “the new Church would be the Church of Reconciliation”.

The church was magnificent at night. Sitting on the beach and looking at the beautiful moon-lit sea, light breeze coming from the North East direction and listening to beautiful hymns sung by devotees praising Saint Anthony, I thanked God and remembered all my friends who patrolled those seas and were no more with us. Their dedication, and bravery out at sea brought lasting peace to our beloved country. But today WHO REMEMBERS THEM?

The rituals continued until midnight. Navy Commander and the Indian Consul General in Jaffna Sai Murali attended the Main Mass.

The following morning (15) the Main Mass was attended by Vice Admiral Kanchana Banagoda and his family. It was a great gesture by the Navy Commander to attend the feast with his family. I had a long discussion with Indian Consul General Jaffna Sai Mulari about frequent incidents of Indian trawlers engaging in bottom trawling in Sri Lankan waters and what we should do as diplomats to bring a lasting solution to this issue, as I was highly impressed with this young Indian diplomat.

The Vicar General of the Jaffna Diocese, my dear friend, Very Rev Father P J Jabarathnam also made an open appeal to all Indian and Sri Lankan fishermen to protect the environment. I was fortunate to attend yet another St. Anthony’s Church feast in Kachchativu.

By Admiral Ravindra C Wijegunaratne WV,

RWP& Bar, RSP, VSV, USP, NI (M) (Pakistan), ndc, psn,
Bsc (Hons) (War Studies) (Karachi) MPhil (Madras)
Former Navy Commander and Former Chief of Defense Staff
Former Chairman, Trincomalee Petroleum Terminals Ltd
Former Managing Director Ceylon Petroleum Corporation
Former High Commissioner to Pakistan