The collapse of two-party system and rise of JJB

Newly elected President Anura Kumara Dissanayake in consultation with the Parliament should take tangible measures forthwith to stop former parliamentarians and serving members from abusing the presidential election at least prior to the next one if the presidency is not done away with before that. In fact, the entire system has to be overhauled to prevent citizens joining the presidential fray at public expense. Of the 38 contestants who were in the fray, over 20 were either members or former members of Parliament who abused provision that allowed their former/present status as MPs, the only requirement to be eligible to contest. The former MPs included several JVPers, including one – a one-time colleague of President Dissanayake, accused of human smuggling during the 2004-2010 Parliament.

By Shamindra Ferdinando

While we congratulate JVP/NPP Leader Anura Kumara Dissanayake on his hard fought victory at the just concluded presidential election and the exemplary manner how he stamped down usual crass behaviour of winning parties at elections of the past, we wish him good luck on the difficult road ahead.

The presidential election, without any doubt, politically ruined the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP). The party that had been founded by Basil Rajapaksa in 2016 obviously suffered irreparable damage at the hands of the Jathika Jana Balawegaya (JJB) aka National People’s Power (NPP). SLPPer Namal Rajapaksa who replaced parliamentarian Dhammika Perera at the last moment as the ruling party’s candidate polled just 342,781 votes (2.57%) of the total valid votes. His performance should be examined taking into consideration the SLPP’s sterling performances at the 2018 local government polls, 2019 presidential and 2020 parliamentary elections. The bottom line is that the SLPP cannot, under any circumstances, recover in time for the next parliamentary election with the certain dissolution of the current House at any moment now. With most of the current SLPP MPs having betrayed the party for personal benefits to back Ranil, who ended a distant third in the contest, are now in the eyes of the public political nonentities.

Having won 145 seats, including 17 National List slots at the 2020 general election, the SLPP simply disintegrated in the wake of the Aragalaya (March 31-July 14, 2022), which drove democratically elected President Gotabaya Rajapaksa out of office, somewhat similar to what happened to Bangladesh Premier Sheikh Hasina with plenty of foreign inputs. The SLPP fielded Namal Rajapaksa, who lacked even basic understanding of public resentment caused by the economic crisis due to short-sighted policies coupled with internal and external conspiracies and ended up suffering a debilitating setback. The Hambantota District MP ended up at a distant fourth place.

Of the once formidable SLPP parliamentary group, the largest section threw its weight behind the parachuted President Ranil Wickremesinghe. That group included Premier Dinesh Gunawardena, Chief Government Whip Prasanna Ranatunga and Leader of the House Susil Premjayantha. Having assured UNP leader Wickremesinghe of certain victory, that group ended up with egg on their faces. Wickremesinghe polled 2,299,767 votes (17.27%). In the run-up to the presidential election, Minister Ranatunga declared that Wickremesinghe had the backing of 104 SLPP parliamentarians. It would be pertinent to mention that Wickremesinghe’s tally included a significant number of votes from the Northern and Eastern electorate as well as the upcountry region.

That SLPP group obviously failed to garner the necessary votes for Wickremesinghe, pathetically. The third breakaway SLPP group backed entrepreneur Dilith Jayaweera who contested on the Communist Party ticket. Ousted President Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s close associate Jayaweera secured 122,396 votes (0.92) and was placed sixth out of 38 candidates. Jayaweera, however, did better than former ministers, Field Marshal Sarath Fonseka (22,407, 0.17% in the 9th position), Wijeyadasa Rajapakshe (21,306, 0.16%. 10th position) and Roshan Ranasinghe (4,205 votes, 0.03%. 30th position). A brave band of rebel SLPP parliamentarians, including Wimal Weerawansa, Udaya Gammanpila, Gevindu Cumaratunga and Weerasumana Weerasinghe, were among those who accepted Jayaweera’s leadership and backed him to the hilt. Their political future, too, is precarious, but at least they can walk with their heads held high for making a principled patriotic stand with a political minnow in an uphill fight against known political heavyweights.

Another section of the SLPP parliamentary group backed SJB candidate Sajith Premadasa. That group included former SLPP Chairman Prof. G.L. Peiris and Dallas Alahapperuma. Perhaps, the SLPP should have voted for Alahapperuma at the vote in Parliament in July 2022. Instead, the SLPP felt confident in coming to a temporary arrangement with Wickremesinghe, in the face of a total breakdown of law and order, especially in fear of the Aragalaya mob, and in a bid to defuse rising public resentment directed at the Rajapaksas. That move divided the SLPP, thereby paving the way for the rapid deterioration of the party, now in tatters in the wake of the devastating defeats all-round.

Rapprochement among SLPP factions is very much unlikely, with the largest group, headed by MEP leader Dinesh Gunawardena, in disarray, after betraying the party to back a political disaster like Ranil Wickremesinghe, who because of his sheer arrogance even antagonized the country’s top judicial body the Supreme Court. In fact, the Wickremesinghe-SLPP combine facilitated the NPP/JJB triumph at the first post-Aragalaya national election possible. Had that grouping properly understood the Aragalaya, perhaps it could have taken remedial measures in agreement with the SJB. Instead, they played politics with the developing crisis. The Wickremesinghe-SLPP combine, nor the SJB, genuinely wanted to address the issues at hand. They never realized how the JJB/NPP meticulously moved ahead with its plans. Therefore, the Wickremesinghe-led government and the SJB never countered the growing threat. Until the very end, they believed a major rift between Anura Kumara Dissanayake and the electorate can be caused by attacking the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP), the main constituent of the JJB/NPP over the 1971 and 1987-1990 insurgencies that claimed many innocent lives.

Post-2019 developments

Over the years, the JVP developed relations with foreign governments. The formation of the JJB/NPP in August 2019 in the run-up to the presidential election in Nov 2019, facilitated the project though the newly recognized political party couldn’t make an impression at that national election. Dissanayake polled 418,553 (3.16%) whereas Sajith Premadasa contesting on the National Democratic Front (NDF) ticket secured 5,564,239 votes (41.99%). Dissanayake was placed a distant third.

At the parliamentary election conducted in August 2020, the JJB/NPP won two seats. Dissanayake and Vijitha Herath entered Parliament from Colombo and Gampaha, respectively. The National List slot received by the party was filled by Dr. Harini Amarasuriya, a key member of the 73-member National Executive Committee.

Having succeeded Somawansa Amarasinghe at the 17th National Convention of the party held in early Dec 2014, Dissanayake transformed the outfit. The formation of JJB/NFF accelerated Dissanayake’s project and by early 2022 he was ready to move on. The JJB/NPP received the recognition of the US and India. Their role in Aragalaya, subsequent acceptance of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) project and keeping mum about the clandestine visit to Sri Lanka by CIA head, soon after Ranil Wickremesinghe was installed as the President to complete the balance term of ousted President Gotabaya Rajapaksa, made them acceptable to the US, and even to India to some extent.

Dissanayake achieved the unthinkable by just having the backing of parliamentarians Herath and Dr. Amarasuriya. In July, 2022, Dissanayake received only three votes, including his own when Parliament elected an MP to complete the remainder of Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s five-year term. Wickremesinghe received 134 votes, including his own, whereas Alahapperuma got 82. Obviously, the Parliament does not reflect the electorate at all.

Let me reproduce the JJB/NPP description of the movement in its website: “Welcome to the Jathika Jana Balawegaya (NPP), a dynamic political movement comprising 21 diverse groups, including political parties, youth organizations, women’s groups, trade unions, and civil society organizations. Established in 2019, NPP is driven by a shared vision of fostering a more progressive Sri Lanka. Our core objectives encompass cultivating an uncorrupted, service-oriented, accountable, and transparent political culture, promoting economic democracy for fairer wealth distribution, strengthening social protections, and championing an inclusive, democratic Sri Lankan identity. Our organizational structure, from the Steering Committee to District Executive Councils, empowers voices at all levels, making NPP a force for positive change in the nation. Join us in shaping a brighter future for Sri Lanka.”

Over the years, the JVP has clearly indicated that it does not seek reunification with those who quit the party whatever the reasons be. At the height of its pre-Aragalaya popularity, the JVP had a 39-member parliamentary group during Chandrika Bandaranaike Kumaratunga’s presidency (second term). Dissanayake had been a member of that group and served that administration as the Minister of Agriculture. Wimal Weerawansa (backed Dilith J) and Mohammed Muzammil (backed Ranil W), too, had been in the same parliamentary group. The latter now faces an uncertain political future.

Dissanayake wouldn’t have won the presidential election if not for the Aragalaya and the post-Aragalaya environment. That is the undeniable truth. In other words, Aragalaya gave a turbo boost to the JJB/NPP. The breakaway JVP faction Frontline Socialist Party (FSP) aka Peratugaami pakshaya regardless of its spearheading role in the Aragalaya, didn’t receive the recognition it deserved at the presidential election. The FSP, through Jana Aragala Sandhanaya, fielded Attorney-at-Law Nuwan Bopage as its presidential candidate. Having secured 11,191 votes (0.08%), Bopage was placed 18th.

During the Aragalaya, the JJB/NPP was accused of making an abortive bid to seize control of Parliament. Having acknowledged the JJB/NPP role in Aragalaya, Bopage, in the run-up to the presidential poll, alleged that the JJB/NPP on its own decided to storm Parliament. Wickremeinghe often claimed credit for thwarting the JJB/NPP attempt but finally lost to Dissanayake at the presidential poll.

Controversial UNP-JVP alliance

The JVP made an abortive bid to influence President Kumaratunga to appoint Lakshman Kadirgamar as the Premier following parliamentary polls in 2004. That move was meant to derail Mahinda Rajapaksa who aspired to be the premier ahead of the presidential poll in the following year. Somawansa Amarasinghe’s JVP went to the extent of threatening Kumaratunga over this matter though it failed to have the desired result. Having failed to prevent Mahinda Rajapaksa from securing the premiership, the JVP threw its weight behind Mahinda Rajapaksa at the 2005 presidential election. In fact, the then UPFA candidate would have suffered defeat without the JVP’s support as his own party, still led by Chandrika, quite openly sabotaged him. Having helped Mahinda Rajapaksa win the presidency, the JVP went against him when the combined armed forces were making headway in the north and east battlefields against the dreaded LTTE, which many thought could not be defeated by our armed forces. The JVP made a failed attempt to defeat the budget. By the time, the armed forces brought the war to a successful conclusion in May 2009, the JVP moved its operation to the next stage.

The JVP joined an alliance comprising the UNP, SLMC, CWC and one-time LTTE ally, TNA, to field a common candidate against Mahinda Rajapaksa. Having realized Wickremesinghe simply had no chance in facing war-winning President Mahinda Rajapaksa, the joint Opposition enticed ambitious war-winning retired Army Chief Fonseka into the political web. Fonseka contested on the ticket of the hitherto unheard NDF (National Democratic Front), a registered political party that was never represented in parliament, provincial councils or Local Government. The Sinha Regiment veteran Fonseka suffered a massive defeat. Fonseka suffered his second resounding defeat at a presidential election last week.

The JVP served the UNP’s interests at the 2010 (Fonseka) and 2015 (Maithripala Sirisena) presidential elections. On both occasions, the UNP led grouping fielded contestants on the NDF ticket with the ‘Swan” as its symbol. The JVP caused itself quite serious harm by getting involved in UNP-led projects in 2010 and 2015 but moved out in 2019 to form the JJB/NPP. The two-party system has caused so much destruction over the years, the JJB/NPP, over a period of six years, managed to apparently convince the people that it could fulfill public aspirations.

Dissanayake received 5,740,179 votes (including preferences) while main rival Premadasa polled 4,530,902 votes. The preferences had to be counted as Dissanayake failed to secure 50% of valid vote +1 at the poll.

A simple and brief swearing-in ceremony, held at the Presidential Secretariat (old Parliament), on Monday morning, stressed the importance of austerity at a time when the country depends on the IMF formula. Acknowledging the extremely difficult challenges ahead, Dissanayake appealed for the support of all, including those who didn’t vote for him, to achieve public aspirations.

Dissanayake’s triumph shook those who lavishly and brazenly exploited the two-party system, regardless of the consequences. The angry electorate, though Dissanayake polled only 5.7 mn out of 17.1 votes, sent an unprecedented warning to those who took the public for granted. Have they properly scrutinized the results at an electoral district basis, the UNP (down to just one National List MP in the current Parliament), SLFP (one elected member from Jaffna) and the utterly shattered SLPP faces an uphill task at the forthcoming parliamentary polls?

Wickremesinghe and Premadasa bombarded the electorate with election promises. Both targeted the public service with much publicized salary hikes. Their promises seemed so far-fetched at a time the country having declared bankruptcy in April 2022 is still struggling to cope up with the post-Aragalaya challenges. If the electorate really took the promises made by Wickremesinghe, in his capacity as the President and Finance Minister seriously, he could have obtained more votes. In fact, had that been the case, the UNP leader could have won the election comfortably. In spite of a costly propaganda campaign, Wickremesinghe had to be satisfied with just over 22 mn votes.

People-friendly administration

Having examined Dissanayake’s manifesto, the writer felt the JJB/NFF proposals submitted under ‘People-friendly administration’ are of crucial importance and should receive the overwhelming public support. The proposals are (1) Abolition of the executive presidency and enactment of a new Constitution meant to devolve power to smallest unit (2) A new Constitution aimed at strengthening democracy (3) Commission against Discrimination (4) Amend hotly disputed Online Safety Act No 09 of 2024 (5) Restrict the number of ministers to scientifically recognized 25 ministries and equal number of deputy ministers. Abolish posts of State and Project ministers (6) Do away with the much abused duty free car permits scheme implemented for the benefit of parliamentarians (JVP benefited from this scheme as well) (7) abolition of pensions granted to former Presidents and ex-parliamentarians (the JVP, too, benefited from this scheme) and (8) implementation of language policy to enable citizens to obtain services through their choice of language.

The success of AKD presidency may depend on the JJB/NPP readiness to go flat out on these proposals. These proposals are likely to receive public support regardless of ethnic divisions. The issues can be a major topic at the next parliamentary election held in an environment conducive for a relatively young party.

Another set of proposals placed before the public under the topic of ‘A disciplined society’ dealt with some issues that attracted public attention over the years. Dissanayake’s manifesto has proposed (1) A special institution to recover stolen public wealth (2) A three-member High Court Trial-at-Bar to expeditiously hear corruption cases (3) Corruption inquiring offices at district basis (4) Specific measures to address law’s delay and (5) Expedite Easter Sunday investigations; deal with those found guilty in the Fundamental Rights case in terms of Criminal Law and action against those named by the Presidential Commission.