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Tariff shock looms as coal crisis drives Rs. 40 bn cost surge

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Sri Lanka’s power sector is bracing for a steep electricity tariff hike, with senior officials confirming that a revised proposal seeks an additional 53% increase, just weeks after the last revision took effect on 01 April.

The move follows a deepening cost crisis, triggered by substandard coal imports and ongoing fossil fuel supply constraints, which, officials say, have already imposed a burden exceeding Rs. 20 billion for the April–June period.

“The numbers are alarming. This is not a marginal adjustment but a structural cost shock,” a senior energy sector official told The Island. “The tariff filing reflects a requirement of around Rs. 40 billion, and roughly half of that is directly linked to the coal issue.”

According to internal estimates, coal-based generation has dropped by nearly 250 gigawatt-hours (GWh) during the three-month period due to poor-quality fuel, forcing greater reliance on costly diesel generation.

“Replacing that lost capacity with diesel costs in the region of Rs. 25 billion,” another official said. “Even after accounting for about Rs. 4.5 billion in reduced generation costs, the net additional burden exceeds Rs. 20 billion.”

The National System Operator (NSO) has projected a total additional cost of approximately Rs. 42 billion for the quarter, forming the basis of the latest tariff application now under review.

Former Energy Minister Eng. Patali Champika Ranawaka also weighed in, warning against transferring the burden to consumers.

“To increase tariffs by Rs. 41 billion under these circumstances is deeply concerning. Around Rs. 20 billion of that is due to the coal issue,” Ranawaka said.

He urged the Public Utilities Commission of Sri Lanka not to approve measures that would pass inefficiencies and losses directly onto the public.

Ranawaka called on the government to take firm action against those responsible instead of deflecting accountability. “The focus must be on accountability and recovery, not on shifting blame or burdening the people,” he said, in an apparent reference to past attempts to attribute power sector failures to external or trivial causes.

Officials acknowledged that the proposed increase, if approved, would place additional strain on households and businesses already grappling with high living costs.

“What is particularly concerning is the contradiction between assurances and actual filings,” a senior official noted, referring to earlier claims that losses from the coal issue would not be passed on to consumers. “The tariff submission clearly suggests otherwise.”

The crisis is expected to intensify in the coming months. Diesel prices are likely to rise, further escalating generation costs, while high-priced heavy fuel oil (HFO) shipments expected from April will add to overall expenditure.

“These pressures are cumulative,” an official said. “The system has very limited capacity to absorb them without tariff adjustments.”

Questions have also been raised about the feasibility of recovering losses from the coal supplier. Officials pointed out that the estimated financial damage is nearly equivalent to the total invoiced value of the first 11 coal shipments—around Rs. 21 billion—making full recovery unlikely.

Energy analysts warn that the financial impact could extend beyond June, as the affected coal stocks are expected to remain in use until at least August, prolonging inefficiencies and elevated costs.

The unfolding situation has intensified calls for transparency and accountability in the energy sector, with growing concern that consumers may ultimately bear the cost of systemic failures.

“This is about the credibility of the system,” a senior official said. “Without accountability, these crises will continue—and the public will keep paying the price.”

By Ifham Nizam



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“I extend my heartfelt wishes to all Sri Lankans for a peaceful and joyous Sinhala and Tamil New Year!” – President

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President Anura Kumara Dissanayake,  issuing a New Year message, extend his heartfelt wishes to all Sri Lankans for a peaceful and joyous Sinhala and Tamil New Year!

The Sinhala and Tamil New Year, which symbolises the aspiration for renewal both physically and spiritually, is the foremost cultural festival of the people of this country.

During the Sinhala and Tamil New Year, traditional customs are upheld, with priority accorded to rituals and religious observances, and activities undertaken collectively at a common auspicious time. This shared cultural practice vividly reflects our nation’s identity before the world, as well as the strong socio-cultural bonds that exist among our communities.

We firmly believe that the future path of national development can only be shaped in harmony with this invaluable culture and our distinguished historical heritage. Accordingly, it must be recalled that all our future development plans have been formulated upon the firm foundation of these precious traditions and cultural values.

Moreover, the common aspiration embodied in the customs and rituals associated with the solar transition is the nurturing of a compassionate individual who values togetherness, respects others, and lives in harmony with nature. I believe that the virtues and values of unity reflected in these New Year traditions should not be confined to these few days alone, but should instead be demonstrated throughout the year in our daily conduct.

In the face of the most significant recent natural disaster challenge encountered in the past year, we demonstrated to the world our resilience and capacity to withstand internal shocks. At the same time, in responding to the external challenges arising from the conflict in the Middle East, the Government has already set in motion a well-planned and effectively managed programme to overcome these difficulties.

As a nation, in overcoming these challenges together, I call upon all of you to further dedicate yourselves to enriching your lives through the values of togetherness, sharing, and solidarity exemplified during the Sinhala and Tamil New Year season.

As we strengthen the achievements we have secured and move forward with unwavering resolve in the face of emerging challenges, I invite everyone to join hands in unity to realise the vision of “A Thriving Nation – A Beautiful Life” for all.

I extend my heartfelt wishes to all Sri Lankans for a peaceful and joyous Sinhala and Tamil New Year!

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US blockade of Iran would worsen global energy crisis, analysts say

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Cargo ships in the Gulf waiting near the Strait of Hormuz are seen from Ras al-Khaimah in the United Arab Emirates [File: Aljazeera]

United States President Donald Trump’s planned naval blockade of Iran would further cripple international shipping, exacerbating the energy crisis roiling the global economy, analysts warn.

Oil prices surged above $100 a barrel on Monday after Trump announced that the US Navy would blockade the Strait of Hormuz and “interdict every vessel in international waters that has paid a toll to Iran”

“Iran will not be allowed to profit off this Illegal Act of EXTORTION,” Trump said on Truth Social.

Central Command, the US military’s command responsible for operations in the Middle East, said in a statement the blockade would affect only ships entering and exiting Iranian ports, an apparent scaling-back of Trump’s threat to fully block the strait.

Trita Parsi, cofounder of the US-based Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, said a US blockade would have a cascading impact across the global economy.

“Anything that currently takes more oil off the market will push prices up, which in turn will push gas prices further,” Parsi told Al Jazeera.

Oil could rise above $150 a barrel if the blockade were to trigger retaliation from the Iran-aligned Houthis in Yemen, who could shut down Bab al-Mandeb, a strait that connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and Indian Ocean, Parsi said.

The strait is an alternative export route for Gulf oil and gas.

A blockade aimed at depriving Iran of revenues would mark a sudden reversal in policy by Washington.

The Trump administration last month announced it would waive some sanctions on Iranian oil exports as a way to help ease the global energy crunch.

Iran has essentially closed the strait since the start of the US-Israeli war on February 28, allowing only a small number of ships to transit after vetting and authorisation.

About 3,200 vessels were stranded west of the strait due to the blockage as of Saturday, according to the maritime intelligence company Windward.

Anas Alhajji, former chief economist at NGP Energy Capital Management, said expected non-Iranian ships would likely keep avoiding the strait despite the US military’s assurances that they will not be impeded because of elevated insurance premiums.

Ships may also fear retaliation from Iran, Alhajji said.

“Therefore, the Trump blockade of the Iranian ports is an actual blockade of the Hormuz Strait,” Alhajji told Al Jazeera.

The resulting rise in oil and gas prices would also cause the cost of chemicals, fertilisers and raw materials used to make plastics to increase, according to analysts.

Cameron Johnson, a senior partner at the Shanghai-based supply chain consultancy Tidalwave Solutions, said he expects prices of many raw materials to rise within several weeks if Trump makes good on his blockade threat.

“The wild card really is the timeframe on this,” Johnson told Al Jazeera.

“If this is a negotiating tactic – remember we still have eight or nine days left of the ceasefire – then it may not really matter. But if this prolongs itself into the end of the month and into the first week of May, you will see prices all over the world spike for raw materials.”

Deborah Elms, head of trade policy at the Hinrich Foundation in Singapore, said the situation for global supply chains could get “much worse” under the blockade.

“Some of the problems are obvious, but many are not. As an example, fabrics will get more expensive,” Elms told Al Jazeera.

“Packaging is already a challenge for firms. Many can’t get blister packs for pills or lids for consumer goods. We can expect consequences for food production later this year and into next year with fertiliser disruptions and lack of supply,” Elms said.

Chad Norville, president of the oil and gas industry news site Rigzone, said Trump’s threat is a further blow to confidence in the situation in the strait ever returning to normal.

The threat alone is likely to drive up insurance premiums for shipping and logistics companies and reduce the volume of trade passing the strait each day, he said.

“Disruptions to shipping and elevated risk in the region were already well established due to the conflict,” Norville told Al Jazeera.

“This threat doesn’t create that baseline. It amplifies it by reinforcing uncertainty around one of the world’s most critical chokepoints.”

[Aljazeera]

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“Let us resolve, with renewed determination to overcome obstacles and build a better and more prosperous nation” -PM

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Prime Minister Dr Harini Amarasooriya in her New Year message requested every Sri Lankan to resolve, with renewed determination to overcome obstacles and build a better and more prosperous nation.

The full text of the PM’s message:

“Marking the auspicious transition of the sun from one planet to another, and the arrival of the spring season following the harvest, the Sinhala and Tamil New Year celebrated by the people of Sri Lanka since ancient times, has dawned once again.

The New Year is not merely a festive occasion; it symbolizes a renewal of prosperity, unity, coexistence, and the strengthening of mutual relationships embedded within our cultural values.

On this occasion, I extend my wishes for a peaceful and prosperous Sinhala and Tamil New Year to all Sri Lankans who celebrate this occasion with their families and loved ones, observing customs at the auspicious time.

A unique feature of Sinhala and Tamil New Year is the way an entire nation comes together through a shared set of customs. Despite the demands and challenges of daily life, this season offers a valuable opportunity to move forward with renewed hope as families, communities and a nation.

The true blessing of the New Year lies in setting aside differences and grievances, and embracing a fresh beginning in a spirit of solidarity and goodwill. Especially in the face of ongoing global challenges, the courage, compassion and resilience shown by our people in facing various natural and economic hardships in recent times stand as an example to the world. It is our responsibility to carry forward that collective strength.

At this auspicious moment, I extend my greetings to our fellow Sri Lankans working overseas, who dedicate themselves to securing a better future for their families and for the country. In particular, I extend my thoughts for the safety and well-being of those living in the Middle East during these tumultuous times.

Let us resolve, with renewed determination to overcome obstacles and build a better and more prosperous nation. As we undertake in a significant social and political transformations, we remain committed to striving tirelessly towards a better future.

May this Sinhala and Tamil New Year be blessed with happiness and prosperity!”

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