Sri Lanka – Current Political Situation

This is a research paper published by the New Delhi-based think-tank the Vivekananda International Foundation (VIF)

Introduction:

This article looks at the current political situation in Sri Lanka from a comprehensive strategic point of view. Developments, therefore, have a national security perspective, keeping India’s objectives, and interests, in mind. The note will briefly cover the political and economic situation of Sri Lanka, India-Lanka bilateral relations, and a few observations about China.

President Ranil Wickremesinghe

President Ranil Wickremesinghe (PRW) is the cynosure of public attention. He is Sri Lanka’s man of the season and is well positioned to guide his country out of the current mess. The manner of his ascent to the highest political office, though controversial, through the parliamentary route, he has general acceptance of the civil society and stakeholders, despite opposition from interested and vested parties.

PRW will hold office till November 2024 and has a massive domestic and international agenda ahead. He will have to oversee several critical political events, such as the establishment of the All-Party Government, 22nd Amendment to the Constitution, General Parliamentary elections, elections to Provincial Assembly and local bodies. He has an unenviable task to meet not only political demands but also to contend with legal cases and address the dysfunctional civil service and other institutions. Of course, and, importantly, he has to address the immediate demands of the socio-economic sector. For him, it is all hands-on deck.

On the strategic side, PRW has to address the governance mess he has inherited from his predecessor, which has left Sri Lanka with very few friends, and options, to secure its interests.

There has been a marked improvement in recent weeks. LPG is now available, fuel stations chaos has reduced. following the introduction of the QR code system, and the power situation, although worrisome, is much better than a few weeks ago. There are positive indications in other sectors and it will be weeks, if not months, to go before the return of a modicum of normalcy.

Ranil Wickremesinghe and India

India may have every reason to feel relieved with President Ranil Wickremesinghe (PRW) at the helm of affairs. India has been his “international safety net” when he negotiated the cease-fire with LTTE, in 2001. The quality of Sri Lanka (SL) diplomacy in India has undergone a sea-change, since August 2021, thanks to the efforts of Milinda Morogoda, the country’s High Commissioner to India, and his equation with the political leadership and strategic community.

In the past fortnight, PRW has made two important statements, on Sri Lanka-India relations. On August 14, he was present at a ceremony, in Colombo, to witness the handing over of a Dornier Maritime Recce and Surveillance Aircraft to the Sri Lankan Navy. Even more importantly, he delivered an eight-minute speech, giving his reflections on Indo-Lanka relations. It was very thought provoking. The speech, and his presence at the ceremony, have important connotations. This was in the backdrop of the controversy over the permission given by SL, to a Chinese survey vessel, to visit Hambantota. The speech is on YouTube.

Even in his Throne Speech (August 03) to the Parliament, PRW devoted several minutes, talking about India, and it was exceptional, as no other country was mentioned directly or indirectly. This is unprecedented in recent times that no Sri Lankan Head of State has used the parliamentary platform, or diplomatic event, to articulate positive statements on India. It can be surmised that these are indications of relations moving to the next level, and greater positivity as well. It also underlined that he feels secure in his job.

President Ranil Wickremesinghe heads to Tokyo, later this week, to take part in the commemoration ceremony of former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. This will give him the golden opportunity to meet the Indian Prime Minister, Narendra Modi, and other heads of government and states. The focus will, of course, be on his meetings with PM Modi, and the road map ahead. It will give India a time to review past actions of the Sri Lankan government and to remove irritants preventing growth and development of bilateral relations. PRW’s interaction with the Chinese, and other dignitaries, including QUAD, ASEAN and Western countries, should be watched with interest.

Political Situation in Sri Lanka

Now let us turn to the political situation in Sri Lanka. It has eased following the departure of Gotabaya Rajapaksa. Consequent, theelection of Ranil Wickremesinghe to office of the President has brought in a sense of calm. This is not to say that situation is normal. Any misstep could revive the Aralagaya movement. PRW has, therefore, to be careful and keep public sentiment in mind. Challenges that lie ahead, include Fundamental Rights (FR) petitions on forcible eviction of protesters from Galle Face, confrontation between Army personnel and civilians, in Galle, and police action in parts of the country, dealing with UNHCR and international opinion over the eviction issue. There is anger over the prosecution of protesters who were in occupation of the Presidential Secretariat, in the Supreme Court, and other government buildings. The government is seeking to replace the dreaded Prevention of Terrorism Act (PTA) with the National Security Act (NSA). It will be weeks, rather months, before normalcy returns.

There are lessons to be learnt from the people’s agitation that ousted GR. An opinion poll, by the Centre for Policy Alternatives (CPA), last week, saw 89.9% in favour of early general elections, 98% for audit of all political parties, 86% for 21st Amendment, 75% for abolishing Executive Presidency and 83% for an all-party interim government.

Under the heading, ‘Trust on Leaders,’ JVP veteran Anura Kumar Dissanayaka (AKD) received 48.5%, followed by RW with 36.65%, and MR bringing up the tail with 11.28%. The JVP veteran receiving top marks in the opinion poll is an important development which needs to be carefully analysed, especially its alignment with FSP.

There were doubts whether PRW will walk the talk. To a large extent, he has displayed political acumen on several counts. The impressive Throne Speech (TS) was RW’s masterstroke. Without ruffling feathers, he conveyed the sense that he is in command and expects to run his term, till November 2024.

By publicly closing the door on GR’s immediate return to Sri Lanka, RW used the parliamentary platform to signal his distancing away from the Rajapaksas’ and their supporters. He is, however, unlikely to shake the cage, at this juncture, or till he constitutes the All-Party Government. The Rajapaksa family has been badly “wounded” by the events of the past several months, their downfall has been dramatic and, importantly, they do not have the support of the 6.9 million people who voted for GR in 2019. The Rajapaksas’ retain the capacity to “call the shots” and influence developments should it threaten them. Former President Mahinda Rajapaksa still retains his charisma. It is unwise to rule them out of any political equation. Meanwhile, they have many court cases to contend with.

It is important to note that PRW has received support across party lines. The SJB is the latest to join the bandwagon. The minorities have vested faith in him, while some are keen to join the government others have expressed outside support.

The government has lifted the proscription of overseas Tamil groups and has also banned some unnamed Muslim groups. The effect of both decisions needs to be examined. Some sections of the Emergency regulations have been amended, obviously keeping in mind that a FR application is filed in the Supreme Court. It is just possible that the emergency may be lifted soon. The possible return of GR in the last week of August 2022 will be a challenge to the law-and-order situation and the possible resurrection of the “Aragalaya” situation.

Economic

Sri Lanka’s economic mess has its origins in the period 2006-2009 and 2009-2015 when Mahinda Rajapaksa (MR) was in office. Profligate spending, obtaining unsanctioned loans from foreign creditors and nations without adequate parliamentary oversight or accountability is the cause for the unprecedented economic mess. GR added to it by several unwise economic, fiscal and monetary policies. The biggest crime was the decision to go for the Port and International Airport at Hambantota, the international airport at Mattala and the Colombo Port City among others.

Much has been written about Lanka’s economic situation, including detailed statements in Parliament by Ali Sabry, Finance Minister ,under GR, subsequently by PRW, both inside and outside Parliament. Ironically, none has come to support GR so far and even MR has not shied away from blaming his brother!

PRW has given out his blueprint in his Throne Speech (August 03, 2022) and some reliable inputs have become available on pulling Sri Lanka out of this logjam. The Colombo based Pathfinder– think-tank of Milinda Morogoda – has brought out a comprehensive document on the subject. Harsha De Silva (MP/SJB) has made a 10-point blueprint on the same subject. Harsha is expected to be part of the All-Party Government.

The IMF bailout is being seen as the precursor to efforts at arresting the downward slide and put the country back on wheels. It will be a signal for others to follow suit as most countries are awaiting the outcome of the IMF-Lanka agreement. The reluctance stems from fear of weak institutions, inexperienced civil servants and local politics that have contributed to the mess.

PRW has spoken in the Parliament about accountability for the mess and petitions are in the Supreme Court to arraign former leaders, including the Rajapaksas, civil servants and others for massive mismanagement. The outcome of court cases will be interesting to watch.

(To be continued)