Small states’ foreign policy dilemmas heighten

Small states such as Sri Lanka ought to be currently learning afresh the acute discomforts of remaining in a state of obligation to extra-regional powers in particular. While Sri Lanka could be said to be in the process of exploring, with a degree of apprehension, inter-state policy adjustments with regard to China, since it is relatively recently that the latter achieved big power status, the same does not go for Sri Lanka’s relations with the US.

While it is true that China has been Sri Lanka’s ‘all weather friend’, the current international economic situation ought to impress on Sri Lanka the dilemmas and risks of being over-dependent on China for its economic sustenance and infrastructure development in particular. Following a high-powered Chinese delegation’s visit to Sri Lanka a week ago, media reports said that Sri Lanka would shortly sign an agreement with China to obtain a US $ 500 million concessionary loan from her. This is welcome financial assistance considering Sri Lanka’s present economic problems, particularly in the wake of the COVID-19 Second Wave. Needless to say, Sri Lanka’s economic vulnerabilities are most glaring currently and the Chinese financial assistance would be seen by Sri Lanka as a ‘God-send’.

One could argue that there’s nothing particularly noteworthy in such gestures of support by China towards Sri Lanka, considering the long history of multi-faceted cooperation between the countries, but from the viewpoint of international politics, this is a most interesting time for South Asia and the Chinese goodwill measure should not be viewed superficially. For, big power involvement in the region is currently on the upswing and Realpolitik considerations in the Chinese gesture cannot be ruled out.

In this connection, the news that US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo would be soon in Sri Lanka as well for top level talks is thought-provoking. It is happening hot on the heels of the visit by the Chinese government notables to Sri Lanka and is no coincidence. A stepped-up ‘scramble’ for influence in Sri Lanka on the part of the big powers in question seems to be very much on.

Needless to say, Sri Lanka will be most accommodative of the US. It has no choice but to follow a conciliatory policy line with regard to the US because it cannot afford to antagonize the latter. This is so particularly in these COVID-19 Second Wave times when Sri Lanka’s economic vulnerabilities have dramatically intensified. Moreover, the hard truth should have been realized by Sri Lanka’s policy and decision-making elite and others who matter that Sri Lanka has been linked to the US by a multiplicity of neo-colonial binds over the decades. It would be naive on the part of local opinion to think otherwise. The same applies to Sri Lanka’s relations with other major powers of the West. Neo-colonialism cannot be wished away.

The above perceptions are equally applicable to the rest of the vulnerable of the global South. They would be compelled to follow a conciliatory policy line with all who wield economic, political and military clout in the current world order. Economic survival in the main dictates this course and it would be foolish to have pretensions to absolute independence in foreign policy decision-making.

Considering this backdrop, it would be naive to argue that Sri Lanka could easily avoid signing the MCC agreement and other such controversial instruments that have been featuring in US-Sri Lanka relations over the years. The unbearable ‘heat’ that was generated in Sri Lankan political circles over these accords in the recent past would probably be of no avail. In fact, the ‘heat’ has, strangely, abated. Such are the dire effects of dependence.

Giving much food for the thought is the inking of a Security Relations Agreement between the US and the Maldives and stepped-up moves by the US to facilitate a peace accord between the Afghan government and the Taliban. Of note is the fact that India too is featuring in these peace moves as a major facilitator. It is plain that the US in particular is keen on stepping-up its influence in this part of the world and it is bound to be taking into consideration a strengthening alliance between Pakistan and China.

Likewise, the US would be doing its utmost to contain and balance Sri Lanka’s hitherto warm ties with China. In all the above situations, the small states concerned have no choice but to act in accord with the US and India in view of the considerable power they wield in the region’s affairs.

Unfortunately for the poor of the global South, they don’t possess a strong collective organization that could make their voice and presence matter in the affairs of the world currently. Organizations such as NAM could fill this breach but they would need to prove their collective strength and establish that it would be in the big powers’ interests to pay heed to them and cooperate with them in their efforts to advance the well being of the vulnerable of the South. An exceptionally vibrant role is expected of these Southern groupings.

However, the foregoing observations should not be seen as tantamount to declaring that the vulnerable of the South have no choice but to cave-in to the influence and power of major states. This is clearly not the case. It is a paradox of these hard times for all that although seemingly weak, the poor possess the potential to be a power to be reckoned with in the affairs of the present international political and economic order, provided they muster their collective strength and unitedly advance their cause among the powerful.

The South counts not only because it has the strength of numbers. It is also because continuous Northern well being is dependent on the sustained economic strength of the South. The paradox referred to consists in the fact that both hemispheres, North and South, are mutually sustaining. The complex economic interdependence of both halves rules out the possibility of one half going it alone, in economic terms, at the expense of the other. To the extent to which the North helps the South to be economically strong, to the same degree would it be helping itself.