Sailing between Scylla and Charybdis

Monday 17th February, 2025

President Anura Kumara Dissanayake (AKD) may be no hero like Odysseus, and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the irate public are certainly no immortal monsters, but the perilous economic voyage AKD has embarked on is akin to sailing between Scylla and Charybdis. The NPP government’s maiden budget is to be presented to Parliament today. It will be the moment of truth for the incumbent dispensation troubled by more than its fair share of problems. What AKD has undertaken to perform on the economic front is a high-wire act, and balance is of the essence; he has had to keep the budget within the confines of the IMF bailout programme while granting relief to the resentful public, whose patience has been wearing thin owing to economic hardships.

It is being claimed in some quarters that the budget to be presented today has already passed muster with the IMF, but even so, problems are far from over for the government. Whether the budget will be acceptable to the public at large remains to be seen. Otherwise, it will entail a heavy political price for the NPP.

In a bid to rally popular support, President Dissanayake has promised pay hikes for state employees, who number more than 1.25 million, according to official statistics, but private sector employees (about 3.63 million) and own-account workers (about 2.8 million) constitute the majority of Sri Lanka’s workforce. The number of contributing family workers is about half a million, according to the Department of Census and Statistics. So, pay hikes for the state employees will leave millions of non-state sector workers disgruntled ahead of an election.

Meanwhile, the relaxation of import restrictions on vehicles may help the government meet the IMF-prescribed revenue target (15% of GDP) without increasing the existing taxes that are already very high or introducing new ones. However, the resumption of vehicle imports is bound to have an adverse impact on the country’s foreign currency reserves, causing the rupee to depreciate and the prices of imports to rise. This is a Catch-22 situation the government may not be able to avoid.

People are in no mood for excuses, and what they expect from the government is the expeditious delivery of its election promises, which range from bringing the prices of essentials down to affordable levels and slashing automobile prices to make cars accessible to everyone. So, the challenge before the government and President Dissanayake is to ensure that today’s budget meets the expectations of the public, with local government elections slated for April.

The government finds itself in the current predicament of having to deliver on its promises even before settling down properly because the JVP-led NPP raised people’s expectations beyond realistic levels to win elections, which looked like promise-making contests, as it were. In the past, the JVP/NPP would take to the streets, asking every newly elected government to grant relief to the public; it called for pay hikes even at the height of the current economic crisis. Now, the boot is on the other foot.

The NPP is being dogged by its own pre-election promises, rhetoric and unreasonable demands during previous governments. One may recall that the NPP in the run-up to last year’s presidential election, claimed that petroleum prices could be reduced by as much as Rs. 160 overnight, and farmers paid Rs. 150 per kilo of paddy. It either did not realise the gravity of the country’s economic situation or erroneously believed that it, too, would be able to get away with broken promises, like past governments, which followed the Machiavellian precept—‘the promise given was a necessity of the past, and the word broken is a necessity of the present’. It is now under pressure from the people who gave it a supermajority to grant them relief.