Features
Putin’s last stand
by Kumar David
The title of this little essay must not be interpreted as saying that Putin is finished, dead and awaiting burial; rather it says that Russian President Vladimir Putin is in grave trouble, his military exploits in Ukraine face defeat, internal dissension at home is mounting and how long his regime will survive is an open question. It is this challenge that I intend to write about. I have taken what appears to be the most plausible and self-consistent information from international wire services and media sources and certainly not confined myself to pro-Western outlets.
The most reliable accounts surmise that the Russian offensive in Ukraine is losing ground. The slip is showing even with the Russian news agency Tass refers to Russian attacks on mainly civilian targets and reports, “According to the FSB (Russian Federal Security Service) over the past week, more than 100 shelling attacks of 32 settlements in the Bryansk, Kursk and Belgorod regions were recorded with the use of multiple-launch rocket systems, cannon artillery, mortars and unmanned aerial vehicles”. Other articles signifying Russian military gains can also be found on Tass, for example: “Russian air defences destroy six combat drones in Ukraine operation”; “Ukrainian garrison at Snake Island surrenders to Russian Armed Forces”; “Putin puts nuke forces on high alert; liberation of Donbass continues” etc.

Putin’s balancing act
Western media paints a gloomy picture of Russia’s military position. Independent channels Al Jazeera and Reuters give a more balanced picture. For example, “Russian forces running and panicking during eastern retreat”; “Ukrainian officials accuse retreating Russian forces of retaliatory attacks on civilian infrastructure”; “Putin accuses Ukraine of Crimea bridge blast, calls it terrorism”. The picture on balance is that Russian forces in the Northern, Eastern and Southern theatres, that is on all three fronts in Ukraine are retreating. The collective picture last week may be summarised as: Setbacks for Putin’s war as his troops struggle to hold off a Ukrainian counteroffensive. The Russian military is doing badly, etc. The flurry of Russian missile strikes across civilian and military targets in Ukraine after Ukrainians crippled the strategic Kerch Bridge linking Russia to Crimea is a sign of desperation.
The Hindustan Times (HT) on October 10 in a piece entitled “Where are the Russians dodging the draft fleeing to?” said that Kazakhstan’s interior ministry reported that 98,000 Russians had entered since September 21 the day of Putin’s military call-up announcement. Kazak President Kassym-Jomart added that the country will ensure the care and safety of Russians fleeing a “hopeless situation. HT also reports that a few days ago 5,000-6,000 (Russians) were arriving in Georgia every day and the number has now grown to 10,000 per day”. “Georgia’s interior minister Vakhtang Gomelauri says the Russia-Georgia border was backed-up with 5,500 cars waiting to enter. During the same period, 40,000 fled to Armenia”. There is no hiding the fact that hundreds of thousands of young Russians are fleeing the country to avoid the draft into a hopeless war.
However, there will a vote in favour of joining Russia in the referendum now being conducted by Moscow in the Donbass Region, in the Eastern part of the country abutting Russia – that is the Russian speaking Donetsk People’s Republic and the Luhansk People’s Republic. The referendum also includes two Southern provinces (Zaporizhia and Kerson) abutting Crimea where Russian speakers are just below 50%. The 90%+ vote in favour of joining Russia reported by Moscow in Donetsk and Luhansk is fabricated and imposed by intimidation; maybe it’s nearer 60-70%. However, the anger of Russian speakers in Ukraine against decades of suppression of their language (similar to the sentiments of Lankan Tamils against the language policies of the Sinhala-Buddhist state) is natural and understandable. Annexation of the two Eastern provinces will I assume be announced soon. This ups the ante because any Ukrainian or NATO action in annexed territories will thereafter be an attack on Russia itself.
Russian speakers in Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk number 77.0%, 74.9% and 68.8%, respectively so it’s a foregone conclusion that the referenda in the two Donbass Region provinces will approve transfer of sovereignty to Russia. Crimea “joined” Russia in 2014. As a thought experiment imagine a Donbass-LTTE which allies itself with a Russian-(I)PKF and is unburdened by a Prabhakaran-like megalomaniac. The outcome for sure would have been far different from what happened in Lanka in the 1990s.
The picture I have painted thus far is a mixed one. Putin’s forces face military defeat at the hands of the plucky Ukrainians but to counter this he will gain a paradoxical political success by uniting the Russian speaking people of Eastern Ukraine with the “fatherland”. Nevertheless, political instability on the home front is troubling because the economy is fragile even sans sanctions, the currency is depreciating as the rouble collapses and supply chains are disrupted. Domestic opposition is mounting and moderately large public demonstrations break out from time to time against the war. Though Putin commands the support of 60-70% of the population and will win an election at this time, the same cannot be said of the war. The war is unpopular. But for NATO’s attempt to encircle and weaken Russia which outrages every Russian, a referendum to pull-out of Ukraine will succeed at this time. There are reports that in February 2022, some 30,000 technologists, 6,000 medics, 3,400 architects, 4,300 teachers, 17,000 artists, 5,000 scientists, and 2,000 actors and creative artists signed an open letter calling on Putin to stop the war.
Nevertheless, the likelihood of Putin being overthrown in a palace coup are slim unless, as sometimes happens with dictators, he loses his marbles altogether and seriously throws a nuclear punch here or there – right now he is only playing nuclear make believe. Were he to attempt to unlock the silos, he will be pushed aside in a palace coup. The military in Russia does not have the credibility or clout to seize power for itself; the replacement will have to be a political figure, Dmitry Medvedev perhaps.
Time for me to move on, but first to recap. The scenario I have painted is that Putin will suffer military defeat in Ukraine but his political gambit of annexing the Donbass will pay off. His forces will de facto (that is other than firing missiles at mainly civilian targets) be compelled to bow out of Ukraine except the Donbass region. Political opposition will keep mounting at home but he will probably remain in power, but the game on the economic front will deteriorate.
China the doughty suitor
I have for long been of the view that an isolated Russia will have to fall back on Chinese economic power as an engine of development and that China’s mighty machine will relish harnessing Russia’s vast natural resources. It will be a win-win relationship accelerated by Russian military setbacks and the slowing down of the Chinese economy.
Most people know that Russia is resource rich but not many know that it is the resource richest country in the world. Some of this is in Siberia and the Far East – a nice coincidence for China and relevant to the point of this essay. Russia has an abundance of natural gas, oil, timber and minerals: copper, zinc, bauxite, nickel, mercury, silver, manganese, chromium, platinum, titanium, tin, lead, tungsten, phosphates and diamonds. It is a world leader in both natural diamond and artificial diamond production and controls 26% of the global gem-diamond and 30% of industrial grade diamond production. Russia holds 37% of unmined gold reserves (world’s second largest) and is the world’s third largest gold producer behind China and Australia.
Russia accounts for 20% of the world’s production of oil and natural gas, holds 17 billion tons of oil – the eight largest in the world – and 48 billion cubic meters of gas reserves – the world’s largest. It also has the world’s second largest coal reserves. The iron ore deposits of the Kursk Magnetic Anomaly are believed to hold one-sixth of the world’s total reserves. Abundance has made it self-sufficient in energy and a large fuel exporter. It is self-sufficient in nearly all major industrial raw materials even after Ukraine, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan left the USSR. The forests of Siberia contain one-fifth of the world’s timber, mainly conifers. In fact, Russia holds the world’s largest forest reserves, 20% of the total; more than Canada or Brazil. To cap it all though much of its land is under permafrost Russia ranks third in arable land and is rising in world ranking of agricultural producers.
That’s enough data – culled from the most reliable statistical sources – to make my point which is that China’s large investable capital, immense population, technical ingenuity and skill, and Russia’s abundant natural resources can and will make a happy union one day; Putin or no-Putin, Xi Jinping or no-Xi Jinping, Ukraine or no Ukraine, Corona virus or no-Corona virus. You don’t have to be a dialectical materialist or a hard-nosed businessman to see this. How can it be otherwise?
Features
US’ drastic aid cut to UN poses moral challenge to world
‘Adapt, shrink or die’ – thus runs the warning issued by the Trump administration to UN humanitarian agencies with brute insensitivity in the wake of its recent decision to drastically reduce to $2bn its humanitarian aid to the UN system. This is a substantial climb down from the $17bn the US usually provided to the UN for its humanitarian operations.
Considering that the US has hitherto been the UN’s biggest aid provider, it need hardly be said that the US decision would pose a daunting challenge to the UN’s humanitarian operations around the world. This would indeed mean that, among other things, people living in poverty and stifling material hardships, in particularly the Southern hemisphere, could dramatically increase. Coming on top of the US decision to bring to an end USAID operations, the poor of the world could be said to have been left to their devices as a consequence of these morally insensitive policy rethinks of the Trump administration.
Earlier, the UN had warned that it would be compelled to reduce its aid programs in the face of ‘the deepest funding cuts ever.’ In fact the UN is on record as requesting the world for $23bn for its 2026 aid operations.
If this UN appeal happens to go unheeded, the possibilities are that the UN would not be in a position to uphold the status it has hitherto held as the world’s foremost humanitarian aid provider. It would not be incorrect to state that a substantial part of the rationale for the UN’s existence could come in for questioning if its humanitarian identity is thus eroded.
Inherent in these developments is a challenge for those sections of the international community that wish to stand up and be counted as humanists and the ‘Conscience of the World.’ A responsibility is cast on them to not only keep the UN system going but to also ensure its increased efficiency as a humanitarian aid provider to particularly the poorest of the poor.
It is unfortunate that the US is increasingly opting for a position of international isolation. Such a policy position was adopted by it in the decades leading to World War Two and the consequences for the world as a result for this policy posture were most disquieting. For instance, it opened the door to the flourishing of dictatorial regimes in the West, such as that led by Adolph Hitler in Germany, which nearly paved the way for the subjugation of a good part of Europe by the Nazis.
If the US had not intervened militarily in the war on the side of the Allies, the West would have faced the distressing prospect of coming under the sway of the Nazis and as a result earned indefinite political and military repression. By entering World War Two the US helped to ward off these bleak outcomes and indeed helped the major democracies of Western Europe to hold their own and thrive against fascism and dictatorial rule.
Republican administrations in the US in particular have not proved the greatest defenders of democratic rule the world over, but by helping to keep the international power balance in favour of democracy and fundamental human rights they could keep under a tight leash fascism and linked anti-democratic forces even in contemporary times. Russia’s invasion and continued occupation of parts of Ukraine reminds us starkly that the democracy versus fascism battle is far from over.
Right now, the US needs to remain on the side of the rest of the West very firmly, lest fascism enjoys another unfettered lease of life through the absence of countervailing and substantial military and political power.
However, by reducing its financial support for the UN and backing away from sustaining its humanitarian programs the world over the US could be laying the ground work for an aggravation of poverty in the South in particular and its accompaniments, such as, political repression, runaway social discontent and anarchy.
What should not go unnoticed by the US is the fact that peace and social stability in the South and the flourishing of the same conditions in the global North are symbiotically linked, although not so apparent at first blush. For instance, if illegal migration from the South to the US is a major problem for the US today, it is because poor countries are not receiving development assistance from the UN system to the required degree. Such deprivation on the part of the South leads to aggravating social discontent in the latter and consequences such as illegal migratory movements from South to North.
Accordingly, it will be in the North’s best interests to ensure that the South is not deprived of sustained development assistance since the latter is an essential condition for social contentment and stable governance, which factors in turn would guard against the emergence of phenomena such as illegal migration.
Meanwhile, democratic sections of the rest of the world in particular need to consider it a matter of conscience to ensure the sustenance and flourishing of the UN system. To be sure, the UN system is considerably flawed but at present it could be called the most equitable and fair among international development organizations and the most far-flung one. Without it world poverty would have proved unmanageable along with the ills that come along with it.
Dehumanizing poverty is an indictment on humanity. It stands to reason that the world community should rally round the UN and ensure its survival lest the abomination which is poverty flourishes. In this undertaking the world needs to stand united. Ambiguities on this score could be self-defeating for the world community.
For example, all groupings of countries that could demonstrate economic muscle need to figure prominently in this initiative. One such grouping is BRICS. Inasmuch as the US and the West should shrug aside Realpolitik considerations in this enterprise, the same goes for organizations such as BRICS.
The arrival at the above international consensus would be greatly facilitated by stepped up dialogue among states on the continued importance of the UN system. Fresh efforts to speed-up UN reform would prove major catalysts in bringing about these positive changes as well. Also requiring to be shunned is the blind pursuit of narrow national interests.
Features
Egg white scene …
Hi! Great to be back after my Christmas break.
Thought of starting this week with egg white.
Yes, eggs are brimming with nutrients beneficial for your overall health and wellness, but did you know that eggs, especially the whites, are excellent for your complexion?
OK, if you have no idea about how to use egg whites for your face, read on.
Egg White, Lemon, Honey:
Separate the yolk from the egg white and add about a teaspoon of freshly squeezed lemon juice and about one and a half teaspoons of organic honey. Whisk all the ingredients together until they are mixed well.
Apply this mixture to your face and allow it to rest for about 15 minutes before cleansing your face with a gentle face wash.
Don’t forget to apply your favourite moisturiser, after using this face mask, to help seal in all the goodness.
Egg White, Avocado:
In a clean mixing bowl, start by mashing the avocado, until it turns into a soft, lump-free paste, and then add the whites of one egg, a teaspoon of yoghurt and mix everything together until it looks like a creamy paste.
Apply this mixture all over your face and neck area, and leave it on for about 20 to 30 minutes before washing it off with cold water and a gentle face wash.
Egg White, Cucumber, Yoghurt:
In a bowl, add one egg white, one teaspoon each of yoghurt, fresh cucumber juice and organic honey. Mix all the ingredients together until it forms a thick paste.
Apply this paste all over your face and neck area and leave it on for at least 20 minutes and then gently rinse off this face mask with lukewarm water and immediately follow it up with a gentle and nourishing moisturiser.
Egg White, Aloe Vera, Castor Oil:
To the egg white, add about a teaspoon each of aloe vera gel and castor oil and then mix all the ingredients together and apply it all over your face and neck area in a thin, even layer.
Leave it on for about 20 minutes and wash it off with a gentle face wash and some cold water. Follow it up with your favourite moisturiser.
Features
Confusion cropping up with Ne-Yo in the spotlight
Superlatives galore were used, especially on social media, to highlight R&B singer Ne-Yo’s trip to Sri Lanka: Global superstar Ne-Yo to perform live in Colombo this December; Ne-Yo concert puts Sri Lanka back on the global entertainment map; A global music sensation is coming to Sri Lanka … and there were lots more!
At an official press conference, held at a five-star venue, in Colombo, it was indicated that the gathering marked a defining moment for Sri Lanka’s entertainment industry as international R&B powerhouse and three-time Grammy Award winner Ne-Yo prepares to take the stage in Colombo this December.
What’s more, the occasion was graced by the presence of Sunil Kumara Gamage, Minister of Sports & Youth Affairs of Sri Lanka, and Professor Ruwan Ranasinghe, Deputy Minister of Tourism, alongside distinguished dignitaries, sponsors, and members of the media.
According to reports, the concert had received the official endorsement of the Sri Lanka Tourism Promotion Bureau, recognising it as a flagship initiative in developing the country’s concert economy by attracting fans, and media, from all over South Asia.
However, I had that strange feeling that this concert would not become a reality, keeping in mind what happened to Nick Carter’s Colombo concert – cancelled at the very last moment.
Carter issued a video message announcing he had to return to the USA due to “unforeseen circumstances” and a “family emergency”.
Though “unforeseen circumstances” was the official reason provided by Carter and the local organisers, there was speculation that low ticket sales may also have been a factor in the cancellation.
Well, “Unforeseen Circumstances” has cropped up again!
In a brief statement, via social media, the organisers of the Ne-Yo concert said the decision was taken due to “unforeseen circumstances and factors beyond their control.”
Ne-Yo, too, subsequently made an announcement, citing “Unforeseen circumstances.”
The public has a right to know what these “unforeseen circumstances” are, and who is to be blamed – the organisers or Ne-Yo!
Ne-Yo’s management certainly need to come out with the truth.
However, those who are aware of some of the happenings in the setup here put it down to poor ticket sales, mentioning that the tickets for the concert, and a meet-and-greet event, were exorbitantly high, considering that Ne-Yo is not a current mega star.
We also had a cancellation coming our way from Shah Rukh Khan, who was scheduled to visit Sri Lanka for the City of Dreams resort launch, and then this was received: “Unfortunately due to unforeseen personal reasons beyond his control, Mr. Khan is no longer able to attend.”
Referring to this kind of mess up, a leading showbiz personality said that it will only make people reluctant to buy their tickets, online.
“Tickets will go mostly at the gate and it will be very bad for the industry,” he added.
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