Business
Oil demand forecasts aren’t as bullish as they seem
Oil has become an attractive alternative fuel because gas prices have soared. But Europe is rapidly replenishing its natural gas stockpiles.Recent revisions to oil demand forecasts aren’t as bullish as they might appear. Don’t get too excited about prices going up just yet.
The International Energy Agency, the US Energy Information Administration and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries all updated their short-term outlooks in the past week. Two of them cut their demand estimates for both this year and next, with only the IEA breaking ranks to increase its forecasts. And it wasn’t just a minor tweak from the Paris-based agency. It revised oil demand higher for this year by a whopping 520,000 barrels a day, with most of that rolled forward into 2023 as well. On the face of it, that’s very bullish for oil.
But there are plenty of reasons to be cautious. First, let’s compare the actual outlooks from the three sets of analysts and put them in their historical context. The IEA’s revision sets its new demand number for 2022 roughly halfway between those of the other two agencies. It also brings its outlook pretty much back to where it saw things in March. So, although the IEA’s revision was big, it’s not out of line with others.
The other noticeable feature in the forecasts is that oil demand growth is disappearing fast, as the chart below illustrates. Global oil demand grew year on year by about 5 million barrels a day in the first quarter of the year — all three sources agree on that — but that increase is now evaporating.
That’s not entirely unexpected when you consider year on year comparisons. Oil demand at the start of 2021 was still adversely affected by the Covid pandemic, so a rebound at the beginning of this year was entirely reasonable. Then economic activity and travel eventually picked up later in 2021, so we would expect demand growth in the corresponding quarters of 2022 to ease.
-Bloomberg
Business
Sampath Bank’s strong results boost investor confidence
The latest earnings report for Sampath Bank PLC (SAMP), analysed by First Capital Research (FCR), firmly supports a positive outlook among investors. The research firm has stuck with its “MAINTAIN BUY” recommendation , setting optimistic targets: a Fair Value of LKR 165.00 for 2025 and LKR 175.00 for 2026. This signals strong belief that the bank is managing the economy’s recovery successfully.
The key reason for this optimism is the bank’s shift towards aggressive, yet smart, growth. Even as interest rates dropped across the market, which usually makes loan income (Net Interest Income) harder to earn, Sampath Bank saw its total loans jump by a huge 30.2% compared to last year. This means the bank lent out a lot more money, increasing its loan book to LKR 1.1 Trillion. This strong lending, which covers trade finance, leasing, and regular term loans, shows the bank is actively helping businesses and people spend and invest as the economy recovers.
In addition to loans, the bank has found a major new source of income from fees and commissions, which surged by 42.6% year-over-year. This money comes from services like card usage, trade activities, and digital banking transactions. This shift makes the bank less reliant on just interest rates, giving it a more stable and higher-profit way to earn money.
Importantly, this growth hasn’t weakened the bank’s foundations. Sampath Bank is managing its funding costs better, partly by improving its low-cost current and savings account (CASA) ratio to 34.5%. Moreover, the quality of its loans is getting better, with bad loans (Stage 3) dropping to 3.77% and the money set aside to cover potential losses rising to a careful 60.25%.
Even with the new, higher capital requirements for systemically important banks, the bank remains very strong, keeping its capital and cash buffers robust and well above the minimum standards.
In short, while the estimated profit for 2025 was adjusted slightly, the bank’s excellent performance and strong strategy overshadow this minor change. Sampath Bank is viewed as a sound stock with high growth potential , offering investors attractive total returns over the next two years.
By Sanath Nanayakkare
Business
ADB approves $200 million to improve water and food security in North Central Sri Lanka
The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has approved a $200 million loan to support the ongoing Mahaweli Development Program, Sri Lanka’s largest multiuse water resources development initiative.
The program aims to transfer excess water from the Mahaweli River to the drier northern and northwestern parts of Sri Lanka. The Mahaweli Water Security Investment Program Stage 2 Project will directly benefit more than 35,600 farming households in the North Central Province by strengthening agriculture sector resilience and enhancing food security.
ADB leads the joint cofinancing effort for the project, which is expected to mobilize $60 million from the OPEC Fund for International Development and $42 million from the International Fund for Agricultural Development, in addition to the ADB financing.
“While Sri Lanka has reduced food insecurity, it remains a development challenge for the country,” said ADB Country Director for Sri Lanka Takafumi Kadono. “Higher agricultural productivity and crop diversification are necessary to achieve food security, and adequate water resources and disaster-resilient irrigation systems are key.”
The project will complete the government’s North Central Province Canal (NCPC) irrigation infrastructure, which is expected to irrigate about 14,912 hectares (ha) of paddy fields and provide reliable irrigated water for commercial agriculture development (CAD). It will help complete the construction of tunnels and open and covered canals. The project will also establish a supervisory control and data acquisition system to improve NCPC operations. Once completed, the NCPC will connect the Moragahakanda Reservoir to the reservoirs of Huruluwewa, Manankattiya, Eruwewa, and Mahakanadarawa.
Sri Lanka was hit by Cyclone Ditwah in late November, resulting in the country’s worst flood in two decades and the deadliest natural hazard since the 2004 tsunami. The disaster damaged over 160,000 ha of paddy fields along with nearly 96,000 ha of other crops and 13,500 ha of vegetables.
Business
ComBank to further empower women-led enterprises with NCGIL
The Commercial Bank of Ceylon has reaffirmed its long-standing commitment to advancing women’s empowerment and financial inclusion, by partnering with the National Credit Guarantee Institution Limited (NCGIL) as a Participating Shareholder Institution (PSI) in the newly introduced ‘Liya Shakthi’ credit guarantee scheme, designed to support women-led enterprises across Sri Lanka.
The operational launch of the scheme was marked by the handover of the first loan registration at Commercial Bank’s Head Office recently, symbolising a key step in broadening access to finance for women entrepreneurs.
Representing Commercial Bank at the event were Mithila Shyamini, Assistant General Manager – Personal Banking, Malika De Silva, Senior Manager – Development Credit Department, and Chathura Dilshan, Executive Officer of the Department. The National Credit Guarantee Institution was represented by Jude Fernando, Chief Executive Officer, and Eranjana Chandradasa, Manager-Guarantee Administration.
‘Liya Shakthi’ is a credit guarantee product introduced by the NCGIL to facilitate greater access to financing for women-led Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) that possess viable business models and sound repayment capacity but lack adequate collateral to secure traditional bank loans.
-
Features6 days agoFinally, Mahinda Yapa sets the record straight
-
News7 days agoCyclone Ditwah leaves Sri Lanka’s biodiversity in ruins: Top scientist warns of unseen ecological disaster
-
Features6 days agoHandunnetti and Colonial Shackles of English in Sri Lanka
-
Business4 days agoCabinet approves establishment of two 50 MW wind power stations in Mullikulum, Mannar region
-
News5 days agoGota ordered to give court evidence of life threats
-
Features7 days agoAn awakening: Revisiting education policy after Cyclone Ditwah
-
Features5 days agoCliff and Hank recreate golden era of ‘The Young Ones’
-
Opinion6 days agoA national post-cyclone reflection period?
