No general election first

What President Ranil Wickremesinghe had told his ministers at their meeting last week, according to what spokesman Bandula Gunawardane told the post-cabinet news briefing, as well as other published reports, is that he does not intend dissolving the incumbent parliament before the upcoming presidential election is concluded. This is a clear signal that he is not going to fall in with SLPP founder and strategist Basil Rajapaksa’s demand that a parliamentary election be first held before the presidential contest later this year. While it is not known whether a parliamentary election first is a Rajapaksa demand with the whole family united behind it or whether it’s purely a BR initiative, as it is not likely that Basil is breaking ranks with the family.

But the president’s stance has not altogether ruled out a general election in the short term. If Basil Rajapaksa still calls the shots among the MPs elected last time around on the SLPP ticket, he should be able to muster the 113 votes necessary to compel the dissolution of parliament and a general election thereafter. All that will take, according to the constitution, is a simple majority of the 225-member legislature. But the SLPP is no longer what it was when it won a two thirds majority at the last general election in August 2020. Large chunks of the party have peeled off the parent since the araglaya forced out both President Gotabaya Rajapaksa and Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa from office. The breakaways have their own agenda and will certainly not obey an SLPP or BR whip.

Quite apart from that, there are many sitting MPs who have not yet completed five years of parliamentary service which would entitle them and their widows to a lifetime pension. So there are very good reasons why they will not support an early dissolution before the due date in August 2025. While President Wickremesinghe has still not declared his own candidature for whatever reason, his intimates have made very clear that he will be a runner. Much of what is happening in the country right now such as the 10 kilos of rice monthly handout to the poor, the school meal, the Rs. 1,700 daily wage for plantation workers, and the president’s statements in Jaffna last week on upgrading the Jaffna hospital and the medical faculty of the Jaffna University and much more are clear pointers to pre-poll vote gathering now evident.

The SLPP has said they are running a candidate but not said that it will be Wickremesinghe whom they first appointed prime minister, replacing MR, and then elected president to complete GR’s balance term. Nor has the party named any other candidate. RW too will not run under the elephant or lotus bud symbol as he’s seeking a broader alliance. A recent unconfirmed report said that Namal Rajapaksa had phoned the president to say he will be running for president. It said that Wickremesinghe had wished Namal, whose father not long ago said had “more time,” good luck. Billionaire businessman Dhammika Perera is known to be waiting in the wings hoping for the SLPP ticket. The presidential ambitions of Field Marshal Sarath Fonseka, chairman of the SJB, who’s recently been distanced from Sajith Premadasa, have also resurfaced.

Only two runners, Sajith Premadasa and Anura Kumara Dissanayake have declared their candidature until now. Wickremesinghe has show in many ways, short of actual declaration, that he’s a contender. Calculations of many politicians presently in parliament is focused on how best to ensure their re-election – whom to back in the presidential race, which party’s ticket will best serve their personal interest among other factors. No doubt the picture will further clarify in coming weeks when Wickremesinghe plays his hand and the Elections Commission sets a polling date for the presidential election. Until then it is a matter of ‘wait and see’ for the electorate.

Commemorating the war dead

Amnesty International’s Secretary General Agnes Callamard was in Sri Lanka last week in connection with the commemoration of the end of the country’s near 30-year long civil war. Predictably, her visit to the Mullivaikkal memorial site commemorating the war dead ruffled many feathers. She met President Wickremesinghe the day she arrived here and was assured the government was not interfering with memorial events. This was true as far as the Mullivaikkal was concerned although the presence of surveillance personnel in civvies was noted. But elsewhere, including in the Batticalloa campus of the Eastern University, such events were not permitted. This year, as in the past, there were events like serving kanji on the streets and even on the Wellawatte beach, some resisted by police armed with court orders, and others permitted.

The Federation of National Organizations (FNO), led by Dr. Gunadasa Amarasekera, publicly found fault with former presidents Mahinda and Gotabaya Rajapaksa as well as the SLPP for turning a blind eye to Callamard’s visit, calling it a “betrayal” of the war winning armed forces. Among the signatories to the FNO statement were two sitting MPs, Rear Admiral (Retd.) Sarath Weerasekera who was elected on the SLPP ticket and Gevindu Cumaratunga who entered parliament on the SLPP national list. Several several former senior military officers too signed this statement. It is debatable whether this subject 15 years later generates the same passion it did during wartime.

The anniversary of the end or the war and the connected events have been controversial over a long period of time. There are those who argue strongly that the Sri Lankan state had not interfered with JVP organized commemorative events for Rohana Wijeweera but had adopted a different stance over such events organized by Tamils. While the name Prabhakaran remains a dirty word in Sri Lanka, he is memorialized in countries with a strong diaspora presence like Canada in what is perceived as ‘vote bank politics.’ It must be acknowledged that even some LTTE combatants who died in the fighting were child soldiers forcibly conscripted by the Tigers. Is it fair then to deprive their families of publicly remembering them?