By Jayampathy Molligoda

It is common knowledge that Sri Lanka never had a consistent export -led growth strategy. For decades, it has become a buzz word without having a proper infrastructure- both physical as well as soft skill- and much needed foreign and domestic investments. With frequent change of governments, export strategies have been changed and no determined efforts made to promote potential export products, marketing destinations and reap the benefits of positives of globalisation to link up with the global value chain (GVC).

Implement truly export led growth strategy:

It is recommended to appoint a high powered ‘economic advisory committee’ under the Presidential secretariat, comprising key officials of the government, drawn from the Treasury, Central Bank and other relevant institutions, together with a team of experts from private sector thus sharing the same vision and ideology of the new government.

It is suggested that the above mentioned economic advisory committee should pick up acceptable proposals without scrapping the already prepared export strategy and give leadership to effectively implement and monitor same through an efficient economic task force. Whilst supporting traditional exports, time is opportune to concentrate simultaneously for a diversified export portfolio such as newer exportable products as technology-based components, raw materials for chemical industries, bunkering product etc. As far as export of services are concerned, train and upgrade skills of Sri Lanka’s human resource at professional levels, such as nursing and health care services, technology-based services, skilled armed services, maritime and navel services, BPO ICT, etc. This will eventually minimise over- dependence of migrating unskilled labour to the Middle East thus creating unnecessary social issues to their families, children and society at large.

Strictly enforce much needed

fiscal discipline:

The already widened fiscal deficit has been further deteriorated by the recently announced relief measures to meet the COVID-19 packages by the government. Nevertheless, the forthcoming Budget should reflect further austerity measures. It is essential that budgetary allocations are restricted on foreign travel for non-essential purposes for some time and save foreign exchange. Current expenditure should be reviewed regularly and prioritize expenses until such time the economy gets back on track. As for state owned institutions, detailed action plans along with winning strategies should be implemented to minimize losses.

More transparent and equitable pricing formulas will have to be introduced for public goods. Purchase of paddy stocks by the government should be at a reasonable minimum price that covers the farmers cost of production and some element of profit. In order to determine price payable to paddy farmers, it is suggested to introduce a similar scheme such as a reasonable price payable to tea small holders under the Tea Control Act of 1957 as amended, could be used thus stemming from the retail price of rice varieties at the market.

Underprivileged, needy communities can be given subsidies. Indian method of transferring subsidies to underprivileged and bypassing the middlemen through banking system using ‘Aadhar programme’ should be studied and must be adapted to suit Sri Lanka. It is essential to prevent leakages of subsidy as it amounts to a huge drain to the treasury financing.

Link strategy to develop SMEs to global value chain:

It is of paramount importance that the government must revisit and re-activate the financial and banking system loan schemes and provide more wholistic assistance to SME’s, establish SME centres and to provide the necessary guidance and support services which include the following areas;

=Start a programme to promote SME exports linking with global value chain (Select 500 SMEs and support for export as quick starter)

=Engage with DFI’s who have done similar projects – IFC, ADB, JICA

=Encourage SME sector to move up in the value chain

=Give incentives for Sri Lankan expatriate with business ideas to come to Sri Lanka to set up enterprises

=Incentivize setting up of venture capital and Private Equity businesses to support these ideas

=Help Sri Lankan SMEs to find joint venture partners for technology transfer. Set up a fund to support research and Development in SME sector

=Create incubators close to- may be universities to encourage setting up of businesses.

=Restructure banking sector and have a separate window for SMEs in the designated banks.

Re-visit existing subsidies

including fertiliser:

As for fertiliser subsidy scheme, time is opportune to revise same to mitigate negative effects of such schemes. If the present subsidy scheme continues, the Government may not be able to achieve its production targets in the agricultural sub- sectors and the farmers will continue to criticize the Government’s policy implementation. Special cultivation calendar shall be introduced based on resource availability in each Agro- Ecological Zone (AEZ). Improve infrastructure facilities such as laboratories, consultation services, extension on recommending site specific fertilizer application. The strategy should be to export high variety crops in addition to maintain food security and replace unnecessary imported food items.

The government needs to ensure that fertilizer is available to the farmers at the correct time and at a revised level of subsidized price where ‘large-scale estate’ owners also get subsidized fertilizer. We need to educate farmers on the proper usage of fertilizer to suit the soil conditions, minimizing wastage and environmental damage. It goes without saying that the system must provide the optimum quantity of fertilizer at reasonable price in time. It is important to identify farm level factors that influence the adoption of straight fertilizers and it would help in promoting the use of straight fertilizers at the farm level. More investment on R&D as well as private sector involvement are needed for manufacture of fertilizers using locally available raw materials.

The following additional points are also recommended:

a. Oligopoly of present fertilizer importers should be taken away and the government should encourage small- scale importers/farmers/RPCs to enter in to the market to import or produce locally. This will resolve issues related to malpractices, fertilizer availability, etc.

b. There shall be no subsidy given to importers, however a ‘ceiling price’ based on the market rate of fertilizer as determined could be fixed taking into account the CIF price of importers. The Subsidy, being the difference between the ceiling price and the subsidized rate, should be given only to the selected beneficiaries and be paid in cash to their bank accounts.

c. Fertilizer will then be freely available in the market and the selling price could be monitored by the relevant agencies and if there is a requirement of controlling the fertilizer prices at the market, then the ‘ceiling price’ could be used by the government. The present subsidized rate should be increased from – Zero for paddy and/or Rs. 10,000 per metric ton (MT) to say, Rs 12,500 and for other crops, the fertilizer mixtures could be increased from the present Rs. 23,000 to say Rs 35,000/ per MT.

d. Government shall encourage farmers (higher subsidy) for “Site Specific Fertilizer Usage and Organic Fertilizer” and required technology shall be given through crop research institutions. Subsidy should be given only for Urea, MOP, TSP and SA. Subsidy on all other straight fertilizers/mixtures should be removed and encouraged to use only where necessary.

e. It is necessary to clear the outstanding subsidy payments to the suppliers of fertilizer by the treasury leaving no room for ‘blame assigning’ by the private sector.

This will enable the government to reduce the burden on the treasury for additional government expenditure on subsidy (at present Rs 50 Billion per annum) at least by 30%.

(1) Invite FDI under the Chinese led “Belt and Road Initiative” (BRI):

To increase foreign exchange earnings, it is important to enhance port and port services by expediting the already planned development activities. The new Government has already approved the installing three gantry cranes to the JCT and the contract to deepen the JC. There is nothing wrong in entering into JVs based on ‘PPP models’ as articulated under the agreement between the GOSL and ADB on Colombo break-water financing. Geo-political realities and the popular public sentiments on the concept of nationalism should not be construed as strictures for decision making ability for economic growth and the writer is confident the next government under the leadership of President Gotabaya Rajapaksa is capable of maintaining a balance between the two in order to fast track economic growth activities.

It is essential to resort to a full-scale effective drive towards getting FDIs for long term projects in a transparent manner and such FDIs should be used only for revenue yielding projects from which, at least part of the borrowing can be met. It will be useful to revert to the marine and maritime activities and Aviation hub concept and ensure that appropriate projects are listed under these two hubs as early as possible and invite FDI under the Chinese led “Belt and Road Initiative” (BRI) and also link up with the ASEAN supply chain trough BRI as Sri Lanka is not a member of the ASEAN.

Conclusion:

Sri Lanka has already demonstrated its ability to combat COVID-19 successfully and the need of the hour is to fast track domestic economic activities, thus enabling Sri Lanka to record a faster recovery than other countries to improve economic growth. A more pragmatic nationalistic ideology – socialist oriented market based economic development model, coupled with an Executive Presidential system of governance would be more suitable to implement inclusive economic development programme to improve quality of life of the people of this country.

(Writer acknowledges the contribution made by Dr Ranee Jayamaha and Mrs Thusitha Molligoda)