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Opinion

It happened, therefore it can happen again

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By Jehan Perera

There are multiple signs that the country is in a major crisis that is most visibly manifesting itself in the economic downturn but also in the moral sphere, law and order and international relations. The reopening of the country after the 40-day lockdown saw lines of people forming outside of supermarkets in their attempt to purchase milk powder for their families. There were accompanying media reports of a shipload of milk powder being diverted to another country’s port due to the inability of the Sri Lankan importer to obtain the foreign exchange necessary to pay for the containers they had ordered. It is not only that imported goods are unavailable, their prices have also shot up. Social media has shared visuals taken from the early 1970s when queues formed in Sri Lanka for rice and basic staples during the time of the world food crisis. It happened due to external forces on that occasion, which cannot be applied at this time. It happened, therefore it can happen again.

The weekend media headlines were also about the huge loans that the country is being forced to obtain from other countries to pay for fuel and other basic imports. Even though these loans will ease the immediate problems and transport will not be disrupted, they will not prove to be a long term solution as these loans have to be repaid with interest. There was also a report of another huge loan from the World Bank to improve the road connectivity system. It evokes memories of a similar road connectivity project that was to be supported by the MCC grant offered by the US government but which was rejected on the grounds that it would be detrimental to national sovereignty. Some of those who govern the country today warned that this project would divide the country into two by means of an electrified fence and US visas would be needed to travel to the holy sites of Anuradhapura. It is such attitudes and distortions that contribute to divide the country.

There was also the shocking news that the country was about to accept organic fertiliSer with harmful bacteria in it. In the past, travellers returning from abroad have had their apples and other fruits brought for personal use confiscated by customs on grounds that they might bring in micro-organisms and pests from abroad that would be detrimental to local agriculture. In this case samples of organic fertiliser imported from abroad proved to have harmful bacteria. Initially those who wanted the fertiliser said it might be the sample that was flawed and not the container load that followed, but when this too was found to be infected, the entire consignment was rejected. There has been no adequate answer to the farmers and associated field advice regarding how to continue the cultivation in these circumstances.

INTER-DEPENDENCE

Underlying the economic and other travails of the country are two key factors. The first is the pursuit of private gain by those entrusted with public responsibility. In this regard it was not a foregone conclusion that the shipload of contaminated organic fertiliser would be turned away. The problem is that it might find its way back. The agricultural authorities now say that the company that produced the infected organic fertiliser will send a batch of fresh fertiliser to Sri Lanka without the harmful bacterial pathogens. The usual practice would be to blacklist a company that sent harmful pathogens in their shipment. But considerations of private profit or loss can make this an exception.

The second key factor is that decisions are made without sufficient understanding of the inter-connectedness of all life, whether political, economic or personal. This may be seen in the decision to ban chemical fertilisers without adequate preparation. Experience has shown worldwide that victories have been won after years of preparation and learning from mistakes in which the decisions are made by veterans who have become experts in their fields. The decision to ban chemical fertilisers without similar years of preparation and participation of experts in the field needs to be reconsidered. There needs to be much awareness creation and advocacy on the ground before it really happens and in stages. In particular, the import of infected organic fertiliser may cause more damage than the chemical fertiliser which it replaces.

As a result of the ban on chemical fertilisers the price of the stock that remains has gone up and crop yields have dropped due to the unavailability of adequate fertilisers and herbicides on time. This was the deficit that the organic fertilizer that was imported and sent back was meant to fill. The reduction in production would mean there is a need for more imports of food grains and other staples for which the country has limited foreign exchange as the milk powder shortage has shown. The Planters’ Association of Ceylon has urged the Government to immediately to avoid major loss of foreign exchange earnings and further worsening the crisis with reduced crops and possible wipe-out of rubber plantations due to the fungal disease. They also estimate a 40 percent drop in tea exports next year.

OMINOUS WARNING

There is a need for an independent group of experts to review the situation. The intentions of the government may be good, but the process of decision making needs to be changed so that private profit and self-interest does not take first place. The present constitutional arrangement is for the president to have the final power to appoint persons to key institutions of state be they in the public service, judiciary, police or even statutory bodies. This needs to be modified to ensure the independence and integrity of those selected to these high positions. There is a need to bring in the opposition and civil society into the selection process along with the government to ensure that the system of checks and balances works with integrity. All institutions, including the presidency, need to be subjected to the principles of accountability and checks and balances.

When problems are not solved by the state institutions that are set up to solve problems it will be the case that people, organisations and communities seek solutions outside the state. Today, whether it is in the Attorney General’s Department, which is being accused of irregular appointments, the police department, which is being accused of not doing their investigations into cases in which government personalities are involved, the prisons department, which permitted a minister to enter with a pistol, the education department which is failing to resolve a protracted dispute with teachers, or the elections department that has failed to hold provincial elections for over three years, there is a loss of confidence in the state.

The most recent example is the Catholic Church which has been asking for investigations into the Easter bombing to yield results after two years and many promises by the government’s leaders. It is time to know the truth and it is only truth that will help Sri Lanka to become free of this burden. Ominously at a time when the Church leaders have said that they are not satisfied with this type of investigation and they will go to the international community, they have been warned that another attack on churches is possible. Instead of identifying the culprits and those behind them, the government system is filing action against those who were clearly not behind the bombings, such as the former Defence Secretary and former police chief against whom 855 indictments had been filed with the prosecution naming 1,216 witnesses which will ensure a very lengthy trial process. This can send a worrying message to those within the state system that they may be scapegoats for actions and omissions that were beyond them.

“It happened, therefore it can happen again” –Primo Levi, Holocaust survivor and writer. It seems that for Sri Lanka, ‘’It happened and it will happen again and again” will be the case until we have the leadership that will bite the bullet and change course.



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Opinion

Capt. Dinham Suhood flies West

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A few days ago, we heard the sad news of the passing on of Capt. Dinham Suhood. Born in 1929, he was the last surviving Air Ceylon Captain from the ‘old guard’.

He studied at St Joseph’s College, Colombo 10. He had his flying training in 1949 in Sydney, Australia and then joined Air Ceylon in late 1957. There he flew the DC3 (Dakota), HS748 (Avro), Nord 262 and the HS 121 (Trident).

I remember how he lent his large collection of ‘Airfix’ plastic aircraft models built to scale at S. Thomas’ College, exhibitions. That really inspired us schoolboys.

In 1971 he flew for a Singaporean Millionaire, a BAC One-Eleven and then later joined Air Siam where he flew Boeing B707 and the B747 before retiring and migrating to Australia in 1975.

Some of my captains had flown with him as First Officers. He was reputed to have been a true professional and always helpful to his colleagues.

He was an accomplished pianist and good dancer.

He passed on a few days short of his 97th birthday, after a brief illness.

May his soul rest in peace!

To fly west my friend is a test we must all take for a final check

Capt. Gihan A Fernando

RCyAF/ SLAF, Air Ceylon, Air Lanka, Singapore Airlines, SriLankan Airlines

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Opinion

Global warming here to stay

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The cause of global warming, they claim, is due to ever increasing levels of CO2. This is a by-product of burning fossil fuels like oil and gas, and of course coal. Environmentalists and other ‘green’ activists are worried about rising world atmospheric levels of CO2.  Now they want to stop the whole world from burning fossil fuels, especially people who use cars powered by petrol and diesel oil, because burning petrol and oil are a major source of CO2 pollution. They are bringing forward the fateful day when oil and gas are scarce and can no longer be found and we have no choice but to travel by electricity-driven cars – or go by foot.  They say we must save energy now, by walking and save the planet’s atmosphere.

THE DEMON COAL

But it is coal, above all, that is hated most by the ‘green’ lobby. It is coal that is first on their list for targeting above all the other fossil fuels. The eminently logical reason is that coal is the dirtiest polluter of all. In addition to adding CO2 to the atmosphere, it pollutes the air we breathe with fine particles of ash and poisonous chemicals which also make us ill. And some claim that coal-fired power stations produce more harmful radiation than an atomic reactor.

STOP THE COAL!

Halting the use of coal for generating electricity is a priority for them. It is an action high on the Green party list.

However, no-one talks of what we can use to fill the energy gap left by coal. Some experts publicly claim that unfortunately, energy from wind or solar panels, will not be enough and cannot satisfy our demand for instant power at all times of the day or night at a reasonable price.

THE ALTERNATIVES

It seems to be a taboo to talk about energy from nuclear power, but this is misguided. Going nuclear offers tried and tested alternatives to coal. The West has got generating energy from uranium down to a fine art, but it does involve some potentially dangerous problems, which are overcome by powerful engineering designs which then must be operated safely. But an additional factor when using URANIUM is that it produces long term radioactive waste.  Relocating and storage of this waste is expensive and is a big problem.

Russia in November 2020, very kindly offered to help us with this continuous generating problem by offering standard Uranium modules for generating power. They offered to handle all aspects of the fuel cycle and its disposal.  In hindsight this would have been an unbelievable bargain. It can be assumed that we could have also used Russian expertise in solving the power distribution flows throughout the grid.

THORIUM

But thankfully we are blessed with a second nuclear choice – that of the mildly radioactive THORIUM, a much cheaper and safer solution to our energy needs.

News last month (January 2026) told us of how China has built a container ship that can run on Thorium for ten years without refuelling.  They must have solved the corrosion problem of the main fluoride mixing container walls. China has rare earths and can use AI computers to solve their metallurgical problems – fast!

Nevertheless, Russia can equally offer Sri Lanka Thorium- powered generating stations. Here the benefits are even more obviously evident. Thorium can be a quite cheap source of energy using locally mined material plus, so importantly, the radioactive waste remains dangerous for only a few hundred years, unlike uranium waste.

Because they are relatively small, only the size of a semi-detached house, such thorium generating stations can be located near the point of use, reducing the need for UNSIGHTLY towers and power grid distribution lines.

The design and supply of standard Thorium reactor machines may be more expensive but can be obtained from Russia itself, or China – our friends in our time of need.

Priyantha Hettige

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Opinion

Will computers ever be intelligent?

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Alan Turin and the Turin machine

The Island has recently published various articles on AI, and they are thought-provoking. This article is based on a paper I presented at a London University seminar, 22 years ago.

Will computers ever be intelligent? This question is controversial and crucial and, above all, difficult to answer. As a scientist and student of philosophy, how am I going to answer this question is a problem. In my opinion this cannot be purely a philosophical question. It involves science, especially the new branch of science called “The Artificial Intelligence”. I shall endeavour to answer this question cautiously.

Philosophers do not collect empirical evidence unlike scientists. They only use their own minds and try to figure out the way the world is. Empirical scientists collect data, repeat and predict the behaviour of matter and analyse them.

We can see that the question—”Will computers ever be intelligent?”—comes under the branch of philosophy known as Philosophy of Mind. Although philosophy of mind is a broad area, I am concentrating here mainly on the question of consciousness. Without consciousness there is no intelligence. While they often coincide in humans and animals, they can exist independently, especially in AI, which can be highly intelligent without being conscious.

AI and philosophers

It appears that Artificial Intelligence holds a special attraction for philosophers. I am not surprised about this as Al involves using computers to solve problems that seem to require human reasoning. Apart from solving complicated mathematical problems it can understand natural language. Computers do not “understand” human language in the human sense of comprehension; rather, they use Natural Language Processing (NLP) and machine learning to analyse patterns in data. Artificial Intelligence experts claim certain programmes can have the possibility of not only thinking like humans but also understanding concepts and becoming conscious.

The study of the possible intelligence of logical machines makes a wonderful test case for the debate between mind and brain. This debate has been going on for the last two and a half centuries. If material things, made up entirely of logical processes, can do exactly what the brain can, the question is whether the mind is material or immaterial.

Although the common belief is that philosophers think for the sake of thinking, it is not necessarily so. Early part of the 20th century brought about advances in logic and analytical philosophy in Britain. It was a philosopher (Ludwig Wittgenstein) who invented the truth table. This was a simple analytic tool useful in his early work. But this was absolutely essential to the conceptual basis of early computer science. Computer science and brain science have developed together and that is why the challenge of the thinking machine is so important for the philosophy of mind. My argument so far has been to justify how and why AI is important to philosophers and vice versa.

Looking at computers now, we can see that the more sophisticated the computer, the more it is able to emulate rather than stimulate our thought processes. Every time the neuroscientists discover the workings of the brain, they try to mimic brain activity with machines.

How can one tell if a computer is intelligent? We can ask it some questions or set a test and study its response and satisfy ourselves that there is some form of intelligence inside this box. Let us look at the famous Alan Turing Test. Imagine a person sitting at a terminal (A) typing questions. This terminal is connected to two other machines, (B) and (C). At terminal (B) sits another person (B) typing responses to the questions from person (A). (C) is not a human being, but a computer programmed to respond to the questions. If person (A) cannot tell the difference between person (B) and computer(C), then we can deduce that computer is as intelligent as person (B). Critics of this test think that there is nothing brilliant about it. As this is a pragmatic exercise and one need not have to define intelligence here. This must have amused the scientists and the philosophers in the early days of the computers. Nowadays, computers can do much more sophisticated work.

Chinese Room experiment

The other famous experiment is John Sealer’s Chinese room experiment. *He uses this experiment to debunk the idea that computers could be intelligent. For Searle, the mind and the brain are the same. But he warns us that we should not get carried away with the emulative success of the machines as mind contains an irreducible subjective quality. He claims that consciousness is a biological process. It is found in humans as well as in certain animals. It is interesting to note that he believes that the mind is entirely contained in the brain. And the empirical discovery of neural processes cannot be applied to outside the brain. He discards mind-body dualism and thinks that we cannot build a brain outside the body. More commonly, we believe the mind is totally in the brain, and all firing together and between, and what we call ‘thought’ comes from their multifarious collaboration.

Patricia and Paul Churchland are keen on neuroscientific methods rather than conventional psychology. They argue that the brain is really a processing machine in action. It is an amazing organ with a delicately organic structure. It is an example of a computer from the future and that at present we can only dream of approaching its processing speed. I think this is not something to be surprised about. The speed of the computer doubles every year and a half and in the distant future there will be machines computing faster than human beings. Further, the Churchlands’, strongly believe that through science one day we will replicate the human brain. To argue against this, I am putting forward the following true story.

I remember watching an Open University (London) education programme some years ago. A team of professors did an experiment on pavement hawkers in Bogota, Colombia. They were fruit sellers. The team bought a large number of miscellaneous items from these street vendors. This was repeated on a number of occasions. Within a few seconds, these vendors did mental calculations and came out with the amounts to be paid and the change was handed over equally fast. It was a success and repeatable and predictable. The team then took the sample population into a classroom situation and taught them basic arithmetic skills. After a few months of training they were given simple sums to do on selling fruit. Every one of them failed. These people had the brain structure that of ordinary human beings. They were skilled at their own jobs. But they could not be programmed to learn a set of rules. This poses the question whether we can create a perfect machine that will learn all the human transferable skills.

Computers and human brains excel at different tasks. For instance, a computer can remember things for an infinite amount of time. This is true as long as we don’t delete the computer files. Also, solving equations can be done in milliseconds. In my own experience when I was an undergraduate, I solved partial differential equations and it took me hours and a lot of paper. The present-day students have marvellous computer programmes for this. Let alone a mere student of mathematics, even a mathematical genius couldn’t rival computers in the above tasks. When it comes to languages, we can utter sentences of a completely foreign language after hearing it for the first time. Accents and slang can be decoded in our minds. Such algorithms, which we take for granted, will be very difficult for a computer.

I always maintain that there is more to intelligence than just being brilliant at quick thinking. A balanced human being to my mind is an intelligent person. An eccentric professor of Quantum Mechanics without feelings for life or people, cannot be considered an intelligent person. To people who may disagree with me, I shall give the benefit of the doubt and say most of the peoples’ intelligence is departmentalised. Intelligence is a total process.

Other limitations to AI

There are other limitations to artificial intelligence. The problems that existing computer programmes can handle are well-defined. There is a clear-cut way to decide whether a proposed solution is indeed the right one. In an algebraic equation, for example, the computer can check whether the variables and constants balance on both sides. But in contrast, many of the problems people face are ill-defined. As of yet, computer programmes do not define their own problems. It is not clear that computers will ever be able to do so in the way people do. Another crucial difference between humans and computers concerns “common sense”. An understanding of what is relevant and what is not. We possess it and computers don’t. The enormous amount of knowledge and experience about the world and its relevance to various problems computers are unlikely to have.

In this essay, I have attempted to discuss the merits and limitations of artificial intelligence, and by extension, computers. The evolution of the human brain has occurred over millennia, and creating a machine that truly matches human intelligence and is balanced in terms of emotions may be impossible or could take centuries

*The Chinese Room experiment, proposed by philosopher John Searle, challenges the idea that computers can truly “understand” language. Imagine a person locked in a room who does not know Chinese. They receive Chinese symbols through a slot and use an instruction manual to match them with other symbols to produce correct replies. To outsiders, it appears the person understands Chinese, but in reality, they are only following rules. Searle argues that similarly, a computer may process language convincingly without genuine understanding or consciousness.

by Sampath Anson Fernando

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