Features
How pandemics originate and evolve
By Prof.Kirthi Tennakone
National Institute of Fundamental Studies
History tells us pandemics have devastatingly interrupted civilizations. They killed millions of humans and brought forth misery and poverty, but never wiped out a civilisation. Epidemics and pandemics begin, escalate and wane or re-emerge. However, the causative agent rarely disappears; it opts for a less vicious coexistence. Smallpox is the only epidemically potent disease that has been eliminated absolutely – not via natural processes but by the intervention of human intelligence.
Life has been created by natural forces endowing an essence for it to reproduce and undergo change. We ourselves and the virus exist because of this, which also enables the virus to adapt itself to the environment, survive and expand causing the pandemic. In ancient times, humans had to await the consequences of the same natural forces to face a pandemic – those who remained fit and immune survived and reproduced.
Today, human intelligent intervention makes things more favourable to us than to the virus, and helps many who lack the natural immunity survive. The eventuality of the present pandemic will be determined by the effort we make to combat it.
How pandemics originate
Persian philosopher Ibn Sina was probably the first to conjecture that living entities in the human body caused diseases. Later, Louis Pasteur proved infections occurred when microscopic organisms entered the body and proliferated and those microbes could pass from one individual to another.
Microbes do not emerge spontaneously; nor do they arrive from the sky. They exist everywhere in the environment as creations of biological evolution. Humans, animals and plants harbour them. Microbes associated with a given species, often symbiotic, pose no danger to the host, whose immunity prevents their undue proliferation. They are selective; those present in one species would not easily move to a different type of host and get established. Nevertheless, the complexity of living things allow exceptions. Occasionally a pathogen or innocuous microbes concealed in animals or found in the environment can jump to a human causing diseases.
An illness acquired from an animal is referred to as a zoonotic disease or a zoonosis. Sometimes, the zoonosis turns out be contagious. Almost all calamitous epidemics and pandemics have arisen from accidental transfer of a bacteria or a virus from an animal species to humans and subsequent evolution- their origin is zoonotic. Ebola, Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome, Middle East Respiratory Syndrome and COVID-19 are zoonotic diseases. The zoonotic infections such as plague, smallpox, measles and swine flu caused first magnitude pandemics in the past.
Ebola Virus Disease: near pandemic situation 2014-2016
A previously unknown sickness broke out near the Ebola River in Congo in 1976, killing almost 80% of persons who contracted it. The cause of the disease, subsequently named Ebola, was found to be a virus endemically associated with bats. Although the virus does no harm to the bats, when transferred to humans via contact during hunting, a fatal condition, similar to a flu occurs. The exposure to body fluids of the infected persons passes the disease to the community. The Ebola outbreak 2014-2016, spread across West Africa. Some cases were also reported in Europe and the United States.
Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS): The older cousins of COVID-19
Coronaviruses with crown like spikes on the surface exist everywhere. Until early 2000s, they were not considered a threat to humans. In 2002, a new contagious respiratory disease, SARS, emerged in China and spread rapidly to several other countries. International corporation; coordinated by WHO quickly elucidated the nature of the condition. The cause of the disease was identified to be a virus harboured by some bats, transferred to humans by palm civets. Handling civet cat meat in wet markets is believed to have caused the transmission of the pathogen to humans. The epidemic was effectively controlled by isolation of infected persons, use of masks, protective equipment, physical distancing and thermal sensing of passengers in airports. In July 2003, WHO declared SARS had been contained.
Another respiratory viral disease MERS first reported in Saudi Arabia in 2012 crossed continents due to air travel. The second major MERS outbreak occurred in South Korea in 2015. Compared to SARS, MERS is more virulent but less contagious, and spreads through close contacts of infected persons. The origin of MERS virus is zoonotic, bats being the primary source and camels the intermediate which transferred the pathogen to humans. The virus may have undergone genetic change in camels facilitating its adaptation to humans.
How pandemics evolve
Pandemics and epidemics begin when an infectious agent enters a community possessing no immunity to resist. A tragic example is measles epidemic in Fiji. In 1875, an Australian delegation carried the virus to the island whose natives were never exposed to the measles – a disease quite common in Asia and Europe. In a matter of months 30 percent of the population died!
Zoonotic viruses are particularly dangerous because humans are not exposed to them at the beginning. The absence of immunity allowed an epidemic in one locality to expand as a pandemic. Furthermore, when a virus originally found in an animal, genetically and associatively distant from humans, is harboured in an intermediate host closer to humans, some genetic intermingling could occur via processes referred to as recombination and re-assortment. This way, the virus acquires a foreignness needed to evade the human immune response and a kinship favourable for adaptation. Domesticated animals sometimes carry viruses originally derived from humans but genetically modified. A virus found in a wild animal co-infecting a domesticated one can copy genetic information from the latter producing a new kind of virus, adaptable to humans and also withstand host immunity.
The origin of the virus causing COVID-19 named SARS-Cov-2 has been traced to a bat species. The genetic make-up of SARS-Cov-2 tally nearly 95 percent with a virus found in so-called horseshoe bats. It is not conclusive whether the virus passed directly from a bat to humans or through an intermediate host. There exists no evidence to support the conspiracy theories that the virus leaked from a laboratory. Finding out how the virus came into being would shed light on how to control it effectively.
Once a pathogen enters a population devoid of immunity, the number of infected people begins to expand exponentially at a rate proportional to the population density reaching a peak. Thereafter, because of the decrease of susceptible persons owing to acquisition of immunity and deaths, the disease wanes.
Mathematical models predict above behaviour and point to the important concept of the effective reproduction number of a progressing epidemic. Effective reproduction number (RE) is the average number of people who acquire the infection from one infected individual at a given time. The idea of reproduction number was first introduced by the British Physician Ronald Ross, who took up mathematics to find a way to eradicate malaria. Ross showed that in order to control an epidemic RE needed to be kept below one. His suggestions for doing this paved the way for the eradication of malaria epidemics in Sri Lanka. In the initial phases of the COVID-19 pandemic in Wuhan, China RE has been in the range 3-5. Control measures such as physical distancing, wearing masks and isolation reduce RE, but the issue is reducing the number further to reach values below one. The mode of evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic is complicated by human migration by imposition and withdrawal of preventive measures.
Transmissibility and virulence
The virus is not after vengeance to be noxiously virulent and kill as many as possible; evolution in that direction renders no advantage because if a large majority of infected persons die, the virus will be deprived of hosts to feed on and reproduce.
The probability that someone will catch the infection from an infected person depends on the rate and quantity of the pathogen transmitted. A severe infection produces larger progeny of viruses; this has some advantage to the virus. Generally, pathogens compromise between transmissibility and virulence giving a higher weightage to the former. The transmissibility of COVID-19 is high because the infected shred the virus before symptoms fully develop. Contrastingly, in case of SARS; the infected release the pathogen at later stages when symptoms are readily identifiable enabling isolation; this is the main reason why SARS was contained and the COVID-19 transmission continues.
The virus aggressively attacking elderly and sparing younger could also be an advantage to the virus. Severely sick elderly patients release larger quantities of virus, infecting the younger who take care of them. The younger move about and infect others. The virus wants to procreate and exploits everything possible for that purpose!
Variations of the virus
Zoonotic viruses undergo major genetic changes via recombination or re-assortment and adapt to human system. Mutations enable them to fine-tune the traits favourable for adaptation by small genetic adjustments. When viruses replicate, their genetic code is sometimes copied erroneously, resulting in random variations. The process is analogous to typographical errors you make when you retype your essay. Even if you retype thousand times, you would not expect to find an improved version of the essay as result of random typographical errors. However, when a virus replicate trillions of times; a more adaptable one may originate and replicate endlessly – these are new strains of the virus. Recently, more contagious strains have been found to proliferate in the UK, Brazil and South Africa. The British Prime Minister announced that the variant identified in his country seemed to be more virulent.
Convergent evolution of strains
The three strains of the virus (United Kingdom, Brazil and South Africa) seemed to have evolved independently. Yet, all the three variants have undergone similar changes in the spike protein, enabling the virus to attach to host cells more strongly; this is essential for efficient spreading. The qualities acquired indicate that mutations have got selected for the definite purpose of convergence to the same cause – to spread the disease fast.
Convergent evolution is quite common in nature. A prototypical example is the near identical streamlined body shapes of the shark and the dolphin. Shark is classified as a primitive fish, whereas the dolphin has been an evolutionarily modern four-legged mammal that lived on land adapted to the ocean. Both shark and dolphin independently evolved towards the optimum hydrodynamic body features to be able to swim fast.
Future of the Present Pandemic and Future Pandemics
It is too early to determine the degree of effectiveness of existing vaccines to new and emerging strains. Fortunately, some vaccines can be easily reprogrammed to provide immunity to new strains. The world will soon acquire the arsenal of weapons needed to fight it. Efficacious vaccines have been demonstrated, and many are in the pipeline. Antiviral drug research progresses although to date there exist no cure for COVID-19. The virtues of physical distancing, wearing masks, contact tracing and isolation are gaining acceptance. Hopefully wide vaccinations programmes and strict adherence to preventive measures will help subdue the pandemic; a concerted effort is imperative. As pointed out in the editorial The Island editorial of 21st January 2021 ensuring equitable access to vaccines is an urgency. This the factor determining what lies ahead and how the pandemic will halt.
Doing the needful forthwith is prudent because given sufficient time the virus might mutate in response to a single political decision implemented somewhere, irrespective of the geographical location.
The other issue would be the emergence of new pandemics in the future – most likely those of zoonotic origin. During the past two decades many such diseases have surfaced. Excessive interference with environment; clearing forests, maintaining millions of farm animals in unnatural conditions and climate change resulting from burning fossil fuels probably contribute this dangerous trend.
When humankind turns cruel to animals, destroy flora and engender environment, the return could be a pandemic!
Features
We banned phone; we kept surveillance; teenagers noticed
THE GREAT DIGITAL RETHINK : PART III OF V
The Teenage Battleground
Secondary school has always been a battlefield of sorts, competing loyalties, volatile friendships, the daily theatre of adolescent identity. But in the past decade it acquired a new and uniquely modern dimension: the smartphone in the pocket, the social media feed refreshing every few minutes, the group chat that never sleeps.
The numbers, when they arrived, were not subtle. PISA 2022 data, drawn from students in over 80 countries, found that around 65 percent of students reported being distracted by their own digital devices in mathematics lessons, and 59 percent said a classmate’s device had pulled their attention away. Students who reported being distracted by peers’ phones scored, on average, 15 points lower in mathematics than those who said it never happened. Fifteen points is not a rounding error. It is a meaningful, measurable, recurring gap that appears consistently across countries with very different education systems.
Governments took notice of the situation. In a pattern that will be familiar to readers of this series, a number of them reached for the most visible, most politically satisfying tool available – the ban in Finland, Sweden, Australia, and France. The UK, in a characteristically chaotic way, involving years of guidance, and pilots, eventually legalised. One by one, secondary schools across the wealthy world have begun confiscating phones at the gate, storing them in pouches, locking them up in boxes, and discovering, somewhat to their own surprise, that this works.
When the Ban Actually Works
A 2025 survey of nearly a thousand principals in New South Wales found that 87 percent reported students were less distracted after the ban was introduced, and 81 percent said learning had improved. South Australia recorded a 63 percent decline in critical incidents involving social media and a 54 percent reduction in behavioural issues. These are striking figures, and they align with what common sense would predict: if you remove the distraction, concentration improves.
What is also emerging from Australian, Finnish and Swedish schools is something less expected and more interesting: the character of break times has changed. Teachers and principals report that when phones disappear from pockets, something older reappears in their place. Students talk to each other. They play. They argue, resolve disputes, make and lose friendships in the ancient, messy, face-to-face way that adolescence has always demanded but that the smartphone had been quietly crowding out. The playground, it turns out, was not broken. It was just occupied.
Sweden’s nationwide policy, coming into effect in autumn 2026, will require schools to collect phones for the full day, not just during lessons. This is the more ambitious intervention, and the one that addresses what the Australian experience has already demonstrated: that the damage done by constant connectivity is not confined to the classroom. It happens at lunch. It happens between periods. It happens in the 10 minutes before the bell when a group of 14-year-olds are supposedly in the building but are actually, in every meaningful sense, somewhere else entirely.
87% of Australian principals said students were less distracted after the ban. The other 13% presumably hadn’t tried it yet.
But Here Is What Nobody Wants to Talk About
Here is the part that the ministers’ press releases do not mention. While the smartphone, the device the student owns, controls and carries, has been banned from the secondary classroom, the institution’s own digital apparatus has been expanding at an impressive pace throughout the same period. Learning management systems now mediate most of secondary school life in high-income countries. Assignments are distributed digitally. Work is submitted digitally. Attendance is recorded digitally. Grades are published on portals that students, parents and administrators can access in real time. The school that bans your personal phone may simultaneously be recording precisely how long you spent on each page of the online reading assignment last Tuesday.
Learning analytics, the practice of harvesting data from student interactions with digital platforms to inform teaching and school management, has moved from a niche research curiosity to a mainstream tool. PISA 2022 data show that virtually all 15-year-olds in OECD countries attend schools with some form of digital infrastructure. Behind that infrastructure sits a layer of data collection that most students and many parents are only dimly aware of: log-in times, click patterns, quiz scores, time-on-task measures, platform engagement metrics. These are assembled into dashboards, fed into algorithms, and used, with genuinely good intentions, in most cases, to identify struggling students early.
The genuinely good intentions do not resolve the underlying problem. Research on learning analytics raises serious concerns about privacy, about the opacity of algorithmic decision-making, and about what happens when a teenager is quietly flagged as ‘at risk’ by a system they never knew was watching. The irony of secondary de-digitalisation is not lost on those paying attention: we have removed the device the student controls, while expanding the systems that observe and score them.
The AI Proctor in the Room
During the pandemic, when exams moved online, a number of education authorities adopted software that monitored students through their webcams, flagging unusual eye movements, background sounds, or the presence of other people in the room as potential signs of cheating. The systems were sold as efficient, scalable and objective. They were, in practice, frequently absurd.
The software flagged students who looked away from the screen to think. It penalised students whose rooms were small, shared or noisy, disproportionately those from less privileged backgrounds. It struggled with students of colour, whose features were less well-represented in the training data. It was contested, appealed, gamed, and eventually abandoned by a significant number of institutions that had initially adopted it with enthusiasm. By 2024 and 2025, the rollback was visible. Universities and some school systems were returning, with minimal fanfare, to supervised in-person examinations, handwritten, on paper, in a room with a human invigilator, partly to solve the AI cheating problem, partly to solve the AI proctoring problem. The wheel had, somewhat dizzingly, turned full circle.
We banned the student’s phone. We kept the webcam that monitors their eye movements during exams. Progress.
The Equity Problem That Bans Cannot Solve
Beneath the headline politics of phone bans lies a more uncomfortable question about who, exactly, benefits from secondary school de-digitalisation, and who pays a cost that is rarely acknowledged. The argument for phone bans on equity grounds is real: unrestricted phone use in schools amplifies social hierarchies. The student with the latest device, the most followers, the most compelling social media presence occupies a different social universe from the student without. Removing phones during the school day levels that particular playing field.
But the equity argument runs the other way, too, once you look beyond school hours. Secondary schools in high-income systems have steadily increased their dependence on digital platforms for homework, assessment preparation and communication. If a school bans phones during the day and then sends students home to complete digitally-mediated assignments, the burden of that homework falls unequally.
There is also the growing phenomenon of what researchers are beginning to call ‘shadow digital education’: the private online tutoring platforms, AI-powered study tools and exam preparation services that affluent families use to supplement and extend what school provides. While secondary schools debate whether students should be allowed to use AI for essay drafts, some of those students’ wealthier peers are already using it, skillfully, privately and with considerable academic advantage. The phone ban, whatever its merits in the classroom, does not touch this market. It may even quietly accelerate it.
Two Worlds, Still Diverging
In Finland, Sweden and Australia, the policy conversation is about how to manage the excesses of a generation that grew up digitally saturated, how to restore concentration, how to protect wellbeing, how to ensure that institutional platforms serve learning rather than merely monitor it.
Elsewhere, across much of Southeast Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa, Latin America and parts of the Middle East, the secondary school conversation remains anchored to a different set of concerns: how to get enough devices into enough classrooms, how to train enough teachers to use them, how to ensure that the smartboard contract does not expire before the teachers learn to turn it on. Vendors are present, helpful and commercially motivated. Development banks are funding rollouts. Government ministers are visiting showrooms. The playbook being followed is the one that Finland and Sweden wrote in 2010 and are now revising.
SERIES ROADMAP:
Part I: From Ed-Tech Enthusiasm to De-Digitalisation | Part II: Phones, Pens & Early Literacy | Part III: Attention, Algorithms & Adolescents (this article) | Part IV: Universities, AI & the Handwritten Exam | Part V: A Critical Theory of Educational De-Digitalisation
Features
A Buddhist perspective on ageing and decay
Buddhism is renowned for its profound insights into ageing and decay, known as jara in Pali. Through its teachings and practices, Buddhism cultivates the wisdom and mental clarity necessary to accept and prepare for the inevitability of ageing. The formula jati paccayaā jaraāmaranaṃ translates to “dependent on birth arise ageing and death,” clearly illustrating that birth inevitably leads to ageing and death, accompanied by sorrow, lamentation, pain, grief, and despair. Without birth, there would be no ageing and death. Therefore, ageing is a fundamental aspect of suffering as outlined in the Four Noble Truths.
Buddhism encourages us to confront the realities of ageing, illness, and mortality head-on. Old age is recognised as an unavoidable aspect of dukkha (suffering). Old age is fundamentally and inextricably entwined with the concept of impermanence(annicca), serving as the most visible, undeniable evidence that all conditioned things are in a state of flux and decay. Ageing, illness and death create in us an awareness not only of dukkha but also impermanence. The Buddha taught, “I teach suffering and the way out of suffering.” Here, “suffering” encompasses not only physical pain but also the profound discomfort that arises when our attempts to escape or remedy pain stemming from old age are thwarted. Instead of fearing old age, Buddhists are encouraged to embrace it, release attachments to youth, and cultivate wisdom, gratitude, and inner peace.
Ageing is a complex process shaped by both genetic and environmental factors. From a Buddhist viewpoint, we should perceive the body realistically. Fundamentally, the human body can be seen as a vessel of impurities, subject to old age, disease, decay, and death. The natural process of ageing is gradual, irreversible, and inevitable. Every individual must ultimately come to terms with the reality of growing old, as change is an essential fact of life.
In Buddhism, impermanence (anicca) holds a central position. Everything that exists is unstable and transient; nothing endures forever—including our bodies and all conditioned phenomena. Thus, anicca, dukkha, and anattaā (non-self or selflessness) are the three characteristics common to all conditioned existence. The reality of impermanence can often evoke pain, yet a wise Buddhist fully understands and appreciates this simple yet profound truth.
The Greek philosopher Heraclitus encapsulated this notion when he stated, “No man ever steps in the same river twice, for it is not the same river, and he is not the same man.” Old age was one of the four sights that prompted Prince Siddhartha Gautama to seek enlightenment, alongside sickness, death, and the wandering ascetic. Coming to terms with these aspects of existence was pivotal in his transformation into the Buddha.
At Sāvatthi, King Pasenadi of Kosala once asked the Buddha, “Venerable sir, is there anyone who is born who is free from old age and death?” The Buddha replied, “Great King, no one who is born is free from ageing and death. Even those affluent khattiyas—rich in wealth and property, with abundant gold and silver—are not exempt from ageing and death simply because they have been born.” This interaction underscores the universal challenge of ageing, transcending societal divisions of wealth or status.
Ageing presents one of the greatest challenges in human experience. Physically, the body begins to deteriorate; socially, we may find ourselves marginalised or discounted, sometimes subtly and sometimes explicitly. Some may encounter dismissal or condescension. Ageism remains one of the most persistent forms of discrimination. The physical and social difficulties associated with ageism can undermine our self-image and sense of self-worth. Common perceptions often portray old age as a stage where the best years are behind us, reducing the remaining years to a form of “bonus years” frequently presented in sentimental or patronising ways.
The suffering associated with ageing can serve as a powerful motivation to engage in practices that directly address this suffering, allowing us to gradually transform it or, at the very least, make it more bearable and manageable. We must recognise that this principle applies equally to our own bodies. The human body undergoes countless subtle changes every moment from the time you are born, never remaining the same even for two consecutive moments, as it is subject to the universal law of impermanence.
Whatever your age. However young-looking you try to remain through external means, the truth is that you are getting older every minute. Every minute, every second, our lives are getting shorter and closer to death. Since you were conceived in your mother’s womb, your life is getting shorter. We see external things going by rapidly, but never reflect on our own lives. No matter what we do, we cannot fully control what happens in our lives or to our bodies. With time, we all develop lines and wrinkles. We become frail, and our skin becomes thinner and drier. We lose teeth. Our physical strength and sometimes our mental faculties decline. In old age, we are subject to multiple diseases.
Many people live under the illusion that the body remains constant and is inherently attractive and desirable. Modern society, in particular, has become increasingly obsessed with the quest for eternal youth and the reversal of the ageing process. Many women feel inadequate about their physical appearance and constantly think about how to look younger and more attractive. Enormous sums of money are spent on cosmetic procedures, skincare, and grooming products to remain presentable and desirable. The global beauty and cosmetics industries thrive on this ideal, often promoting unrealistic standards of beauty and youthfulness. But no amount of products available in the world can truly restore lost youth, as time inevitably leaves its mark.
Therefore, in Buddhism, mindful reflection on ageing and the human body is considered essential for overall well-being. This contemplation provides insight into impermanence as we navigate life. Reflecting on the nature of the body—its true condition and its delicate, changing state—is a fundamental aspect of the Buddha’s teachings. By understanding the body accurately, we support both wisdom and peace of mind.
Buddhism recognises forty subjects of meditation which can differ according to the temperaments of persons. Contemplation of the human body is one of them. Of all the subjects of meditation, reflection on the human body as a subject is not popular among certain people particularly in the western world as they think such contemplation would lead to a melancholic morbid and pessimistic outlook on life. They regard it as a subject that may be somewhat unpleasant and not conducive to human wellbeing. Normally, people who are infatuated and intoxicated with sensual pleasures develop an aversion towards this subject of meditation. In Buddhism this mode of contemplation is called asuba bhavana or mindfulness of the impurities of the body. It is all about our physiology and individual body parts and organs internal as well as external. This subject of meditation is unique to the Buddhist teachings.
To appreciate the body as it truly is, we must set aside preconceived notions and engage in a calm and honest inquiry: Is this body genuinely attractive or not? What is it composed of? Is it lasting or subject to decay?
In embracing the teachings of Buddhism, we find the wisdom to navigate the journey of ageing with grace, transforming our understanding of this natural process into an opportunity for growth and acceptance.
When our fears centre on ageing, decay, and disease, we cannot overcome them by pretending they do not exist. True relief comes only from facing these realities directly.
Reflecting on the body’s unattractive and impermanent nature can help us gain a realistic perspective. In an age when the mass media constantly bombards people with sensual images, stimulating lust, greed, and attachment, contemplation of the body’s true nature can bring calm and clarity.
All beings that are born must eventually die. Every creature on earth, regardless of status, shares this common fate. After death, the body undergoes a series of biological changes and decomposes, returning to the earth as organic matter. It is part of the earth and ultimately dissolves back into it.

Understanding this, we can meet ageing, decay, and death with greater wisdom, less fear, and a deeper sense of peace.
by Dr. Justice Chandradasa Nanayakkara
Features
Partnering India without dependence
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi once again signaled the priority India places on Sri Lanka by swiftly dispatching a shipload of petrol following a telephone conversation with President Anura Kumara Dissanayake. The Indian Prime Minister’s gesture came at a cost to India, where there have been periodic supply constraints and regional imbalances in fuel distribution, even if not a countrywide shortage. Under Prime Minister Modi, India has demonstrated to Sri Lanka an abundance of goodwill, whether it be the USD 4 billion it extended in assistance to Sri Lanka when it faced international bankruptcy in 2022 or its support in the aftermath of the Ditwah cyclone disaster that affected large parts of the country four months ago. India’s assistance in 2022 was widely acknowledged as critical in stabilising Sri Lanka at a moment of acute crisis.
This record of assistance suggests that India sees Sri Lanka not merely as a neighbour but as a partner whose stability is in its own interest. In contrast to Sri Lanka’s roughly USD 90 billion economy, India’s USD 4,500 billion economy, growing at over 6 percent, underlines the vast asymmetry in economic scale and the importance of Sri Lanka engaging India. A study by the Germany-based Kiel Institute for the World Economy identifies Sri Lanka as the second most vulnerable country in the world to severe food price surges due to its heavy reliance on imported energy and fertilisers. Income per capita remains around the 2018 level after the economic collapse of 2022. The poverty level has risen sharply and includes a quarter of the population. These indicators underline the urgency of sustained economic recovery and the importance of external partnerships, including with India.
It is, however, important for Sri Lanka not to abdicate its own responsibilities for improving the lives of its people or become dependent and take this Indian assistance for granted. A long unresolved issue that Sri Lanka has been content to leave the burden to India concerns the approximately 90,000 Sri Lankan refugees who continue to live in India, many of them for over three decades. Only recently has a government leader, Minister Bimal Rathnayake, publicly acknowledged their existence and called on them to return. This is a reminder that even as Sri Lanka receives support, it must also take ownership of its own unfinished responsibilities.
Missing Investment
A missing factor in Sri Lanka’s economic development has long been the paucity of foreign investment. In the past this was due to political instability caused by internal conflict, weaknesses in the rule of law, and high levels of corruption. There are now significant improvements in this regard. There is now a window to attract investment from development partners, including India. In his discussions with President Dissanayake, Prime Minister Modi is reported to have referred to the British era oil storage tanks in Trincomalee. These were originally constructed to service the British naval fleet in the Indian Ocean. In 1987, under the Indo Lanka Peace Accord, Sri Lanka agreed to develop these tanks in partnership with India. A further agreement was signed in 2022 involving the Ceylon Petroleum Corporation and the Lanka Indian Oil Corporation to jointly develop the facility.
However, progress has been slow and the project remains only partially implemented. The value of these oil storage tanks has become clearer in the context of global energy uncertainty and tensions in the Middle East. Energy analysts have pointed out that strategic storage facilities can provide countries with greater resilience in times of supply disruption. The Trincomalee tanks could become a significant strategic asset not only for Sri Lanka but also for regional energy security. However, historical baggage continues to stand in the way of Sri Lanka’s deeper economic linkage with India. Both ancient and modern history shape perceptions on both sides.
The asymmetry in size and power between the two countries is a persistent concern within Sri Lanka. India is a regional power, while Sri Lanka is a small country. This imbalance creates both opportunities for partnership and anxieties about overdependence. The present government too has entered into economic and infrastructure agreements with India, but many of these have yet to move beyond initial stages. This has caused frustration to the Indian government, which sees its efforts to support Sri Lanka’s development as not being sufficiently appreciated or effectively utilised. From India’s perspective, delays and hesitation can appear as a lack of commitment. From Sri Lanka’s perspective, caution is often driven by domestic political sensitivities and concerns about sovereignty.
Power Imbalance
At the same time, global developments offer a cautionary lesson. The behaviour of major powers in the contemporary international system shows that states often act in their own interests, sometimes at the expense of smaller partners. What is being seen in the world today is that past friendships and commitments can be abandoned if a bigger and more powerful country can see an opportunity for itself. The plight of Denmark (Greenland) and Canada (51st state) give disturbing messages. Analysts in the field of International Relations frequently point out that power asymmetries shape outcomes in bilateral relations. As one widely cited observation by Lord Parlmeston, a 19th century prime minister of Great Britain is that “nations have no permanent friends or allies, they only have permanent interests.” While this may be an overly stark formulation, it captures an underlying reality that small states must navigate carefully.
For Sri Lanka, this means maintaining a balance. It needs to clearly acknowledge the partnership that India is offering in the area of economic development, as well as in education, connectivity, and technological advancement. India has extended scholarships, supported digital infrastructure, and promoted cross border links that can contribute to Sri Lanka’s long term growth. These are tangible benefits that should not be undervalued. At the same time, Sri Lanka needs to ensure that it does not become overly dependent on Indian largesse or drift into a position where it functions as an appendage of its much larger neighbour. Economic dependence can translate into political vulnerability if not carefully managed. The appropriate response is not to distance itself from India, but to broaden its partnerships. Engaging with a diverse range of countries and institutions can provide Sri Lanka with greater autonomy and resilience.
A hard headed assessment would recognise that India’s support is both genuine and interest driven. India has a clear stake in ensuring that Sri Lanka remains stable, prosperous, and aligned with its broader regional outlook. Sri Lanka needs to move forward with agreed projects such as the Trincomalee oil tanks, improve implementation capacity, and demonstrate reliability as a partner. This does not preclude it from actively seeking investment and cooperation from other partners in Asia and beyond. The path ahead is therefore one of balanced engagement. Sri Lanka can and should welcome India’s partnership while strengthening its own institutions, fulfilling its domestic responsibilities, and diversifying its external relations. This approach can transform a relationship shaped by asymmetry into one defined by mutual benefit and confidence.
by Jehan Perera
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