Great Powers and Rising Powers: Why Sri Lanka Should Stay Non-aligned

by Sarala Fernando

Great Powers dispose of various systems of espionage, within established domestic institutions and hidden intelligence assets in foreign countries for purposes of gathering information as well as offensive actions which include plotting to compromise and discredit opponents or even to carrying out their assassinations. The oldest description of various tools and methods for espionage appear in chronicles of state-craft in ancient India like Kautilya, where espionage occupied a very important place.

However in the world of today, when a rising power is involved, great powers can crack down very fast, even to the extent of disturbing previously healthy diplomatic relationships. In September 2023, Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau stated in parliament that security agencies had “credible evidence” linking Indian agents to the murder of a prominent Sikh activist living in Canada describing India’s alleged involvement as a violation of Canadian sovereignty; an Indian diplomat whom the country described as the head of India’s intelligence operations in Canada was subsequently expelled.

Two months later, the US said it foiled an alleged plot to assassinate an American citizen in New York who advocated a Sikh separatist state and dispatched a high level security team to India to make known their concerns on Indian government intelligence activities in the US. Australian intelligence has also recently flagged similar espionage activities of foreign diplomats as a potential security threat in their territory.

These developments linked to rising powers flexing their muscles, herald a time of caution for small nations like Sri Lanka, contradicting the proclamation by Nilanthan Niruthan, Executive Director of the Centre for Law and Security Studies in Colombo at a recent seminar that ” the best course for survival and success for Sri Lanka is to abandon its traditional non-alignment and to be aligned to a powerful neighbor like India which will be respected by both global blocs, China-Russia nexus on one side and the USA and Western world on the other”.

Former Deputy Governor of the Central Bank W.A. Wijewardene who spoke at the same event concluded that it was a “rare instance in which both speakers spoke the same language holding the view that both global and local imperatives have dictated Sri Lanka to have a close relationship with India.” However, the weakness of both Nirunthan and Wijewardene’s arguments is becoming clearer by the day with all signs that a global trade war is emerging under President Trump, enforcing tariffs against the exports of its closest neighbours Mexico and Canada in contravention of earlier signed agreements aiming at integrating these economies.

President Trump has announced that he will also enforce tariffs on the EU and even aims to acquire Greenland! Thus, the coming era appears one of unpredictability and disintegration where self interest and brute force will transcend negotiation and diplomacy with no respect for existing blocs or alliances or even the fundamentals of international law. A new Executive Order has been issued withdrawing the US from and ending funding to certain UN organizations and reviewing US support to all international organizations.

India’s role in this new world “disorder” is still evolving. Prime Minister Modi was among the earliest to be invited to Washington by President Trump who sees rising India as a partner in its global defence strategy and has offered military sales worth billions of dollars including F-35 fighter jets. Yet, behind the bonhomie of the personal relationship between President Trump and Prime Minister Modi, there is the looming issue of tariffs on each other’s exports to be discussed between the two sides. As India frames its response in the evolving new relationship with the US, this is a time of extreme caution for small nations like Sri Lanka in its foreign policy formulation.

Wijewardene’s account of the seminar, in his weekly column in the Financial Times, fails to mention the dissenting opinions including former Foreign Secretary Ravinatha Aryasinha who had argued in favour of continued adherence to non-alignment and warning of far reaching consequences of being aligned with any single country. Fortunately, the Island newspaper carried a full report of Aryasinha’s comments by journalist Shamindra Ferdinando reminding also of the historical background when China and Pakistan had steadfastly backed Sri Lanka during the armed conflict whereas India had supported LTTE separatist terrorism in the 1980’s, thereby casting doubt on the advisability of concluding a defence cooperation agreement with India as promoted by Nirunthan.

Of late, the role of foreign intelligence operations in Sri Lanka have come under the spotlight with the warning that Israelis in Arugam Bay were to be targeted by Islamic terrorists. Previously, India’s RAW agents, stationed within their embassy, were routinely castigated for interference in Sri Lanka domestic affairs, notably during the years of the armed conflict, (as documented even by Indian writers). In the post-conflict era, accusations were directed to RAW over election interference.

Sikh activist Hardeep Singh Nijjar murdred in Canada

In a parallel development, attention was drawn recently to the stationing of Indian security personnel in the Maldives ostensibly to service donations of equipment like the Indian Dornier aircraft which sparked such a controversy that they had to be replaced by civilian “technical personnel”. Sri Lanka also has a Dornier project and no official word has revealed as to whether Indian security personnel are stationed in our island within this project. If so, it would be a direct violation of our traditional non-aligned foreign policy.

There is yet another problem and that is the embedding of foreign security personnel in the host countries training and research networks. Newly established security studies institutions like the Centre for Strategic Studies in Trincomalee and the Centre for Law and Security Studies in Colombo claim to be studying Sri Lanka foreign policy and have reached out to Sri Lanka academics, but is it Sri Lanka’s national interest which is served or is their main objective to promote and protect Indian interests? The websites postings of the Centre in Trincomalee for example carry a distinct anti-China slant. Interestingly, no information is available on the funding sources for both these institutions.

Time to remember the wise words of Chandrasena Maliyadde that “economists do computer aided analysis in cold rooms” and their theoretical assumptions tend to ignore social implications and real life field data. The making of foreign policy for a small state must be based on historical recall and experience of past events, and the careful balancing of national interests without antagonizing any country. Thus, any analysis that argues that Sri Lanka cannot do without India on economic grounds fails if no account is taken of the Tamil Nadu factor, from where historically invasions and attacks against Sri Lanka have been launched and even today sees the imposition of many non-tariff barriers blocking our exports and the fair implementation of the ISLFTA.

Take the perennial issue of the poaching in our waters by hundreds of huge Tamil Nadu bottom trawlers which are destroying the livelihoods of our northern fishermen. The only deterrent has been the Sri Lanka navy in their small patrol boats and courageous sailors who have managed to arrest poachers and seize their mega vessels while Delhi calls for “humanitarian treatment” of the offenders.

(Sarala Fernando, retired from the Foreign Ministry as Additional Secretary, her last Ambassadorial appointment was as Permanent Representative to the UN and International Organizations in Geneva . Her Ph.D was on India-Sri Lanka relations and she writes now on foreign policy, public diplomacy and protection of heritage).