Features
Friction-reduction talks in South Asia off to unpromising start
The indications are that the internal turmoil in Afghanistan is churning up one of the most mind-numbing humanitarian crises in world history but some principal external powers who could do much to relieve Afghanistan’s lot do not seem to be putting their best foot forward in that direction. For example, as this is being written India is hosting National Security Advisor level talks in New Delhi among some of its most prominent neighbours to resolve acute security concerns relating to the Afghan situation and other issues but Pakistan and China have reportedly shown disinclination to join the talks.
The multilateral ‘Regional Security Dialogue’ chaired by India’s National Security Advisor Ajith Doval is essentially aimed at arriving at consensual positions on South and South West Asia’s security concerns, among other goals, and is the third such parley to be held in recent years but in the absence of China and Pakistan it is left to be wondered whether the talks would yield fruitful results. However, Iran and Russia are party to the talks and this could contribute some weight to the deliberations which will be attended by some key Central Asian states as well. The latter are: Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyz Republic.
Afghanistan’s domestic crisis has taken a turn for the worse with tens of thousands of Afghan citizens fleeing the country of their birth. The main reason for this phenomenal exodus is nothing less than hunger and mounting material hardships. They are running the gauntlet of a vast expanse of desert to get to Central Asia and Iran and from there to the Mediterranean and Europe. The Taliban is reportedly not halting this exodus for the simple reason that it cannot provide for the escaping Afghans. TV footage showed bedraggled families readying for the hazardous journey huddled in battered pickups and other utility vehicles under the eyes of Taliban gunmen.
However, it is the help of Afghanistan’s closest neighbours that would count most. While many of these neighbours could be expected to be quite generous when it comes to humanitarian assistance, the same could not be said of security cooperation on which inter-state politics have a considerable bearing. As mentioned in this column previously, the US troop withdrawal from Afghanistan left behind a yawning power vacuum which is being filled by China. In this move it is having the cooperation of Pakistan, since these countries are the best of regional allies. The reported decision by China and Pakistan not to attend the ongoing regional security parley in New Delhi leads to the conclusion that these powers are acting in concert on regional security questions.
The fact that Pakistan and China are allies of the Taliban regime is of considerable significance when focusing on the inter-state politics of South and South West Asia and their wider implications. The Taliban regime was not invited to the New Delhi forum and the conclusion is inescapable that China and Pakistan chose not to attend the parley on account of this decision by India. Since the Taliban regime lacks legitimacy in the eyes of the international community, its attendance at formal international and regional parleys on matters of importance is a contentious question and this issue is bound to have weighed very heavily with New Delhi. Democracies such as India are not bound to recognize the Taliban regime as long as it does not meet the criteria set by the international community for state legitimacy.
However, China and Pakistan are among the foremost of regional powers and their non-appearance at the New Delhi talks does not augur well for the swift resolution of questions that are integral to the stability and wellbeing of South West Asia and beyond. Ideally, China and Pakistan ought to use their influence with the Taliban to induce it into meeting some of the criteria set out by the world community for legitimacy and recognition. But would they set aside regional power rivalries, such as those that they are having with India, and influence the Taliban into accepting the standards of the international community? This is weightiest question of all in this context.
Right now, China and India could not be expected to act consensually on regional security issues in a hurry in consideration of the state of their bilateral relations. If the issues cropping-up on the Line of Actual Control dividing India and China, for example, could be resolved constructively and peacefully it could have some positive effects on the countries’ overall bilateral relations. This would enable these powers to work consensually on regional security issues. At the moment, the chances of this occurring any time soon are rather remote.
In the case of India-Pakistan relations, issues pertaining to ideology are keeping the states divided, as has always been the case. However, of late these questions have aggravated, resulting in interstate ties taking on a particularly divisive note. For instance, there are the issues flowing from the recognition of the Taliban and other religious extremist outfits by Pakistan. Such recognition could result in terrorism enjoying a new lease of life in South Asia. This is a legitimate concern of the world of democracy and if it is troubling India, the latter cannot be faulted.
How to blend religion with politics, has been a particularly South Asian political puzzle. Religion could be the basis of a state as long as it integrates into its being essential democratic principles and values. This is a matter the entirety of the states of South Asia need to focus on and not only Pakistan. There is Sri Lanka, for example, which seemingly cannot make up its mind as to whether it must be secular or theocratic. As long as such policy dilemmas remain unresolved, South Asia is likely to remain a highly restive region. But, as in the case of Afghanistan, people are suffering immeasurably as a result of these questions. Saving human lives should be the foremost priority for states.