Fitch Rating downgrade was due to govt failure to implement correct financial policies, says UNP

The UNP says that the Fitch Rating agency’s downgrading Sri Lanka to a rank of CC indicated an increased probability of a default event in coming months in light of the country’s worsening external liquidity position and drop in foreign-exchange reserves.

Addressing a press conference held at the party headquarters Sirikotha, UNP Chairman and former minister Wajira Abeywardena said that it could not accept the excuse given by the government that the downgrading was a consequence of the COVID-19 pandemic.

“During the same period, except for a few countries such as Sri Lanka, all other countries around the world have strengthened their dollar reserves. Therefore, it is not an excuse that could be accepted as the real cause for this problem. It is nothing but a failure to implement correct financial policies,” he said.

The UNP Chairman said that Fitch has downgraded Sri Lanka to ‘CC’ from ‘CCC’. They did so, stating that there was an increased probability of default as liquidity injections made to sterilize interventions and enforce a 6.0 percent policy rate continue to drain reserves and create forex shortages. This downgrade signals a probability of a default event in coming months in light of Sri Lanka’s worsening external liquidity position underscored by a drop in foreign-exchange reserves set against high external debt payments and limited financing inflows. “We are confronted with the danger of the collapse of the economy. We see the signs of economic collapse. These signs prevent investors coming to this country,” Abeywardena said.

He said that Fitch maintains issuer default ratings from AAA to D. The AAA ratings denote the lowest expectation of default risk. They are assigned only in cases of exceptionally strong capacity for payment of financial commitments. This capacity is highly unlikely to be adversely affected by foreseeable events. Ratings AA stands for very high credit quality denoting expectations of very low default risk. They indicate a very strong capacity for payment of financial commitments. This capacity is not significantly vulnerable to foreseeable events. The ‘A’ ratings denote expectations of low default risk. The capacity for payment of financial commitments is considered strong. This capacity may, nevertheless, be more vulnerable to adverse business or economic conditions than is the case for higher ratings. The BBB ratings indicate that expectations of default risk are currently low. The capacity for payment of financial commitments is considered adequate, but adverse business or economic conditions are more likely to impair this capacity. The ‘BB’ ratings indicate an elevated vulnerability to default risk, particularly in the event of adverse changes in business or economic conditions over time; however, business or financial flexibility exists that supports the servicing of financial commitments. The ‘B’ ratings indicate that material default risk is present, but a limited margin of safety remains. Financial commitments are currently being met; however, capacity for continued payment is vulnerable to deterioration in the business and economic environment. The ratings of CCC where Sri Lanka had been until last week denote substantial credit risk with very low margin for safety. Default is a real possibility at that stage. The CC is the current rating status of Sri Lanka with very high levels of credit risk and default of some kind appears probable. Hereafter we have three more ratings. The next worst could be ‘C’ ratings showing a near default. It is the stage where a default or default-like process has begun, or the issuer is in standstill, or for a closed funding vehicle, payment capacity is irrevocably impaired. Then comes RD ratings which indicate an issuer that in Fitch’s opinion has experienced an uncured payment default or distressed debt exchange on a bond, loan or other material financial obligation, but has not entered into bankruptcy filings, administration, receivership, liquidation, or other formal winding-up procedure, and has not otherwise ceased operating. At the bottom there is D ratings indicating an issuer that in Fitch’s opinion has entered into bankruptcy filings, administration, receivership, liquidation or other formal winding-up procedure or that has otherwise ceased business.